UCL Fantasy Matchday 5: captain picks and best buys
UCL Fantasy Matchday 5 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell
UCL Fantasy Matchday 5 is played on 24 and 25 November, with all 36 clubs in action once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The transfers you make for Matchday 5 have to carry you through Matchday 7, so this round is about the run behind it. Real Madrid have the best three-round attacking program in the game, Arsenal the best clean-sheet run, and Bayern München the steadiest. The other decision is the injury list: five players owned by between 10% and 20% of managers project under 2 points in each of the next three rounds.
All numbers come from our model's current projections. Matchday 4 finishes on 4 November, so lineups and projections will still move before the deadline. The full ranking by position is on the UCL Fantasy player picks page, and the UCL Fantasy predicted lineups show who is expected to start. The UCL Fantasy Matchday 4 preview covers the previous round.
Matchday 5 to Matchday 7: whose programs are worth owning
Real Madrid top the three-round table at 7.98 expected goals on [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS. That is two of the best fixtures of the league phase (79% and 86% win probability) around a hard trip to Arsenal (25%), and [A]SHK follows in Matchday 8 at 74%. The Arsenal week is the one to plan around with your captaincy, not a reason to stay away from Madrid's attack.
Bayern München are second on 7.05 with [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN and no fixture below a 54% win probability, and they have the second-best clean-sheet run at 0.98. That makes them the most even program of the top group. Paris Saint-Germain (6.95) start with their best game of the three, Roma at home (70%), before two away trips at Aston Villa and Como. Barcelona (6.87) look the same: Sabah away (72%) is a very good fixture, then the Manchester City week (48%) and Sporting away (55%).
For clean sheets, Arsenal lead on 1.05 expected clean sheets across [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET, and Dortmund at home is the best clean-sheet chance of the round at 41%. Their Matchday 8 fixture, Sabah at home, carries a 54% clean-sheet chance, so Arsenal defenders are a hold through the whole league phase. Real Madrid (0.93), Atletico Madrid (0.89, [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD) and Inter (0.87, [H]STU → [A]BVB → [H]LIV) follow.
| Team | Matchday 5 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD5-MD7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | [H]PSV | 79% | 3.10 | 38% | [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS | 7.98 | 0.93 |
| Bayern München | [A]LIL | 58% | 2.17 | 30% | [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN | 7.05 | 0.98 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | [H]ROM | 70% | 2.74 | 32% | [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM | 6.95 | 0.79 |
| Barcelona | [A]SFK | 72% | 2.70 | 36% | [A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP | 6.87 | 0.84 |
| Inter | [H]STU | 71% | 2.61 | 36% | [H]STU → [A]BVB → [H]LIV | 6.58 | 0.87 |
| Manchester City | [H]NAP | 68% | 2.49 | 34% | [H]NAP → [A]BAR → [A]RCL | 6.31 | 0.79 |
| Arsenal | [H]BVB | 70% | 2.36 | 41% | [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET | 6.09 | 1.05 |
| Atletico Madrid | [H]VIK | 55% | 1.96 | 31% | [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD | 5.62 | 0.89 |
| RB Leipzig | [H]RCL | 54% | 1.99 | 29% | [H]RCL → [A]MUN → [H]SHK | 5.60 | 0.82 |
| Liverpool | [A]CLB | 53% | 2.17 | 23% | [A]CLB → [H]POR → [A]INT | 5.45 | 0.71 |
| Napoli | [A]MCI | 14% | 1.08 | 8% | [A]MCI → [H]CLB → [A]SFK | 5.40 | 0.66 |
| Galatasaray | [H]AVL | 45% | 1.90 | 21% | [H]AVL → [A]AEK → [H]FEY | 5.31 | 0.62 |
| Villarreal | [A]SLP | 32% | 1.34 | 21% | [A]SLP → [H]SFK → [A]FB | 5.14 | 0.75 |
| Viking | [A]ATM | 22% | 1.18 | 14% | [A]ATM → [H]FEY → [H]PSV | 5.07 | 0.71 |
| Aston Villa | [A]GAL | 31% | 1.56 | 15% | [A]GAL → [H]PSG → [H]BVB | 4.76 | 0.48 |
| Feyenoord | [H]POR | 47% | 1.69 | 29% | [H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL | 4.55 | 0.58 |
| Bodø/Glimt | [H]LAS | 48% | 1.86 | 25% | [H]LAS → [A]RCL → [H]ATM | 4.31 | 0.53 |
| Club Brugge | [H]LIV | 25% | 1.45 | 11% | [H]LIV → [A]NAP → [A]STU | 4.08 | 0.30 |
Bodø/Glimt are the team with the biggest gap between this round and the next three. LASK at home gives them a 48% win probability this week, then [A]RCL and [H]ATM drop to 23% and 22%. Their players are one-round picks at best. Feyenoord's [H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL is similar at team level, yet their attacking midfielders keep projecting well, which is covered below. Avoid Club Brugge ([H]LIV → [A]NAP → [A]STU, 0.30 expected clean sheets), PSV ([A]RMA → [H]ATM → [A]VIK) and Sabah FK. The full calendar is on the UCL Fantasy schedule, and the odds behind these numbers are on the UCL Fantasy market probabilities page.
Matchday 5 goalkeepers
Matvey Safonov (5.5m, PSG) is the goalkeeper to own. His program is [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM and he projects 3.7 → 3.4 → 3.4, 10.5 points over three, the best of any keeper. He also tops the position this round. Only 7% own him, so he is a quiet edge over the template keeper.
That template keeper is David Raya (6.0m, ARS) at 37% ownership. On [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET he projects 3.4 → 3.1 → 3.4, and Arsenal's 54% clean-sheet chance against Sabah in Matchday 8 lifts him to 4.0. He is a hold, not a sale. Jan Oblak (5.5m, ATM) is the steady alternative at 3.3 → 3.3 → 3.4 on [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD, and his line climbs to 3.6 in Matchday 8.
Two 4.0m keepers stand out. Aleksandar Popovic (4.0m, SBR) has two home games first, [H]BET → [H]SHK → [A]LIL, and projects 3.3 → 3.8 → 3.0, which is 10.1 over three and second only to Safonov. Tjark Ernst (4.0m, FEY) is joint second for this round alone at 3.5 against Porto, but [A]VIK → [A]GAL behind it drops him to 3.0 twice, so this round and the three-round ranking disagree. If you are buying one cheap keeper to keep, buy Popovic. Ederson Moraes (4.9m, FB) totals 10.0 on [A]SHK → [A]LAS → [H]VIL.
Matchday 5 defenders
Achraf Hakimi (6.0m, PSG) is still the defender to own. He projects 5.4 → 4.4 → 4.2 on [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM, 14.0 over three and the best of any defender by 1.9. His 0.20 expected goals and 0.17 expected assists this round are why he outscores every other defender, whatever PSG's clean-sheet chance. Roma at home is the best fixture of his run, so if you do not own him, this is the round to buy him.
Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) is the mid-price defender whose line rises. He goes 3.9 → 3.7 → 4.5 on [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD, then 4.8 when Fenerbahçe visit in Matchday 8. That is 12.1 over three and the second-best total of any defender, with only 7% ownership. Gabriel (6.0m, ARS) (11.7) is the clean-sheet pick on Arsenal's [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET, and he rises to 5.2 in Matchday 8. Dayot Upamecano (5.6m, FCB) (11.6) has Bayern's even run [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN, and his best week is Matchday 6 at home to Slavia (4.3).
This round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree among the cheap defenders. Haitam Aleesami of Bodø/Glimt ties for second this week at 4.3, but falls to 2.0 at Lens. Sergi Altimira (4.0m, SCP) also projects 4.3 this week and holds up better: 4.3 → 3.6 → 3.3 on [H]MUN → [A]ROM → [H]BAR, 11.2 over three at 75 projected minutes. Buy Altimira if you want a cheap defender to keep. Roland Sallai (5.0m, GAL) is the other value option at 4.3 → 3.3 → 3.9 on [H]AVL → [A]AEK → [H]FEY (11.5), but plan to move him before Matchday 8 at Paris, where he drops to 2.2.
Mauro Junior (4.0m, PSV) is the defender to buy a round later. PSV's trip to Real Madrid gives him only 2.9 this week, but [H]ATM → [A]VIK and [H]STU follow, and he projects 4.1 → 3.6 → 4.6 from Matchday 6. You can wait a round on this one. Matthieu Udol (4.5m, RCL) is in the same position, at his best (4.3) at home to Bodø/Glimt in Matchday 6.
Matchday 5 midfielders
Lamine Yamal (10.2m, BAR) is the best midfielder for this round and over the next three: 6.3 → 5.5 → 5.4 on [A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP, 17.2 in total. 48% own him, and nothing in the program gives a reason to sell. Michael Olise (9.1m, FCB) is back to a full projection at 70 minutes and ranks second over three at 15.2 (5.1 → 5.5 → 4.6 on [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN). Raphinha (9.6m, BAR) projects more this week (5.6) than Olise, but less after it (4.7, then 4.5), on 57 projected minutes. If you are buying one of the two to keep, buy Olise.
Vinicius Junior (9.5m, RMA) is the premium differential at 6% ownership. He projects 5.1 → 3.5 → 5.3 on [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS. The Arsenal dip is the cost, and his 53 projected minutes are the risk. Jude Bellingham (8.5m, 22% owned) has the same program and projects 12.6 over three, 1.3 less than Vinicius for 1.0m less.
Anis Hadj Moussa (6.7m, FEY) is the best mid-price midfielder over three rounds at 14.7. He projects 5.3 → 4.6 → 4.8 on [H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL and 5.3 again at home to Leipzig in Matchday 8, at 80 projected minutes. He is Feyenoord's penalty taker, and only 1% own him.
Feyenoord also have the best budget midfielder. Gjivai Zechiel (4.6m, FEY) projects 4.8 → 4.5 → 4.6 on the same [H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL, 13.9 over three. That beats Bruno Fernandes and Martin Ødegaard (13.1 each) for far less money, and almost nobody owns him. Luciano Valente (5.0m, FEY) is close behind at 13.2. Patrick Berg (5.0m, BOD) is the Bodø/Glimt midfielder who survives the team's tough run: 5.0 → 4.0 → 4.1 on [H]LAS → [A]RCL → [H]ATM at 85 projected minutes. Jens Petter Hauge (7.0m) projects more this week (5.2) but drops to 3.1 at Lens, so he is a one-round pick.
Maghnes Akliouche (7.0m, PSG) is the PSG midfielder to own on [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM: 4.6 → 4.3 → 4.0 for 12.9, and 5.0 at home to Galatasaray in Matchday 8. Zlatko Tripic (5.8m, VIK) is a buy for Matchday 6, not this round. Viking's [A]ATM is a 22% fixture and he projects 4.0, but [H]FEY → [H]PSV follow and he goes 5.1 and 5.0.
Matchday 5 forwards
Kylian Mbappé (11.1m, RMA) is the forward to own, with the best three-round total of any player in the game at 17.8. His program is [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS and he projects 6.5 → 4.5 → 6.8, with 0.85 expected goals against PSV. 61% own him, and he should stay.
Erling Haaland (11.2m, MCI) is second at 16.6 (6.1 → 5.1 → 5.4) on [H]NAP → [A]BAR → [A]RCL, and he is City's penalty taker. Harry Kane (11.2m, FCB) costs the same and is owned by 50%, more than twice as many as Haaland. Kane projects 4.9 → 5.2 → 4.6 on [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN, 1.9 less over three. Kane is not a sale, but if you are choosing one of the two for the next three rounds, choose Haaland. The gap is widest this week (6.1 against 4.9), so this is the round to switch if you plan to.
Victor Osimhen (7.9m, GAL) is the mid-price forward to target at 6% ownership. He projects 5.3 → 4.3 → 4.8 on [H]AVL → [A]AEK → [H]FEY, 14.4 over three and only 0.3 behind Kane for 3.3m less. He is Galatasaray's penalty taker and projects 79 minutes. Plan to sell before Matchday 8, when Galatasaray go to Paris and he drops to 3.8. Bryan Mbeumo (7.0m, MUN) is the steady value option: 4.2 → 4.3 → 3.7 on [A]SCP → [H]RBL → [H]FCB, also at 79 minutes.
Serhou Guirassy (8.6m, BVB, 13% owned) is a hold rather than a buy this week: Dortmund's trip to Arsenal gives him 3.6, but his line rises to 4.3, 4.3 and 5.3 on [H]INT → [A]AVL → [H]AEK. Peter Christiansen (6.1m, VIK) has the same shape at a lower price (3.4 → 4.3 → 4.1) and is a buy from Matchday 6.
Matchday 5 captain picks
Kylian Mbappé (11.1m, RMA) is our Matchday 5 captain. He projects 6.5, the most of any player, and Real Madrid's 3.10 expected goals at home to PSV is the biggest team total of the round. His program [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS also makes him the top captain again in Matchday 7 (6.8). Lamine Yamal (10.2m, BAR) is the close second at 6.3 on [A]SFK, and Haaland third at 6.1 against Napoli.
- Kylian Mbappé (RMA, [H]PSV): 6.5, then 6.8 for Matchday 7
- Lamine Yamal (BAR, [A]SFK): 6.3, then 5.5 for Matchday 6
- Erling Haaland (MCI, [H]NAP): 6.1, then 5.1 and 5.4
Raphinha (5.6) and Achraf Hakimi (5.4) complete the top five. The captaincy plan is why the two premiums at the top matter together. Mbappé is the best captain in Matchday 5 and Matchday 7, and in Matchday 6, when Madrid go to Arsenal, Yamal and Olise lead at 5.5 each. Owning Mbappé and Yamal covers all three rounds. Our guide to picking a fantasy captain explains how we rank the options.
Matchday 5: who to sell, and why now
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (9.8m, PSG) is the clearest sale. 13% still own him, but he is listed unavailable well beyond the league phase and projects zero for Matchday 5 through Matchday 8. PSG's [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM is a good run he will not play, so there is no round that rewards waiting.
Nuno Mendes (6.0m, PSG) is owned by 20% and projects only 20 minutes in Matchday 5, then 1.4 → 1.3 → 1.3 over the same PSG program. Roma at home is the best clean-sheet chance PSG have until Matchday 8, so selling now moves your money onto a defender who plays it, and Hakimi is the same price. Ousmane Dembélé (10.2m, PSG), 12% owned, is in the same position at 1.7 → 1.3 → 1.4, and so is Marquinhos (5.0m, PSG) at 10% (1.1 in each round). Dembélé's 10.2m is exactly Yamal's price.
Vitinha (7.7m, PSG) is the sell-into-a-good-fixture call. 18% own him, and Roma at home is a 70% fixture, so this is not a bad week for PSG. But he projects only 3.1 there on 59 minutes, then 3.0 and 2.8 at Aston Villa and Como. If he cannot score in PSG's best game of the run, the two away games will not change that, and Akliouche projects 12.9 over the same three rounds against Vitinha's 8.9 for 0.7m less.
Rayan Cherki (7.0m, MCI), 17% owned, projects 46 minutes and 3.0 → 2.6 → 2.8 on [H]NAP → [A]BAR → [A]RCL. Napoli at home is a fair fixture (68% win probability), but the Barcelona trip follows, and Hadj Moussa costs 0.3m less with 6.3 more points over three. Pau Cubarsi (5.5m, BAR), 21% owned, has the same timing: Sabah away is a good clean-sheet week (36%), but he projects 2.9 there and then 2.2 when Manchester City visit. Altimira costs 1.5m less and outscores him in each of the next three rounds.
Luis Diaz (8.0m, FCB), 9% owned, is listed unavailable until 28 November and projects zero for Matchday 5, then 2.8 and 3.0. Vanja Milinkovic-Savic (3.9m, NAP), 10% owned, projects 30 minutes and 0.8 at Manchester City. Both are sales now, since neither recovers to a normal score within the program. Thibaut Courtois (6.0m, RMA, 18%) projects 2.8 → 2.5 → 2.8 on 66 minutes; Real Madrid's home game with PSV is a decent clean-sheet week (38%), so you can wait a round on him, but Safonov projects 2.4 more over the same three for 0.5m less.
Best Limitless team for Matchday 5
Limitless removes the budget for one round, so the best squad is simply the top Matchday 5 projections within the three-per-club cap. Built from this round's numbers only:
- Goalkeepers: Matvey Safonov (PSG, 3.7), Tjark Ernst (FEY, 3.5)
- Defenders: Achraf Hakimi (PSG, 5.4), Gabriel (ARS, 4.3), Sergi Altimira (SCP, 4.3), Roland Sallai (GAL, 4.3), Haitam Aleesami (BOD, 4.3)
- Midfielders: Lamine Yamal (BAR, 6.3), Raphinha (BAR, 5.6), Anis Hadj Moussa (FEY, 5.3), Jens Petter Hauge (BOD, 5.2), Michael Olise (FCB, 5.1)
- Forwards: Kylian Mbappé (RMA, 6.5), Erling Haaland (MCI, 6.1), Victor Osimhen (GAL, 5.3)
Play it as a 3-4-3 with Olise as the first substitute, and captain Mbappé. Two Bodø/Glimt players make the list because LASK at home is their best fixture of the rest of the league phase, and they are exactly the kind of one-round picks Limitless is for. On Limitless the program does not matter, since your squad goes back after the round. For the exact solved optimum, see the optimal teams for UCL Fantasy, and our UCL Fantasy tips guide covers when the chip is worth using.
More analysis for every matchday is in the UCL Fantasy preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in UCL Fantasy Matchday 5?
Kylian Mbappé. He projects 6.5 points at home to PSV, the most of any player, and Real Madrid's 3.10 expected goals is the biggest team total of the round. Lamine Yamal (6.3 at Sabah) and Erling Haaland (6.1 against Napoli) are the alternatives.
Should I sell Kane for Haaland in UCL Fantasy Matchday 5?
If you are switching, Matchday 5 is the round to do it. Erling Haaland projects 16.6 points over the next three rounds against Harry Kane's 14.7 at the same 11.2m price, and the gap is widest this week (6.1 against 4.9). Kane is still a good forward, so there is no need to sell him to fund anything else.
Who are the best UCL Fantasy differentials for Matchday 5?
Anis Hadj Moussa (6.7m, 1% owned, 14.7 points over three) and Victor Osimhen (7.9m, 6%, 14.4) lead the list. Matvey Safonov (7%) is the best goalkeeper over the next three, and Gjivai Zechiel (4.6m) is the budget midfielder almost nobody owns.
Which budget defenders are best for UCL Fantasy Matchday 5?
Sergi Altimira (4.0m, Sporting CP) projects 4.3 this round and 11.2 over three. Roland Sallai (5.0m, Galatasaray) totals 11.5, and Mauro Junior (4.0m, PSV) is the one to buy a round later, when his 4.1 → 3.6 → 4.6 run starts.
Should I sell Kvaratskhelia before UCL Fantasy Matchday 5?
Yes. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is listed unavailable well beyond the league phase and projects zero for every remaining matchday, so his 9.8m is better spent on Haaland, Yamal or Olise.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.