How Our Fantasy Predictions Work

Every number on TheFantasyTool comes from one model, built since 2017 and adapted to each sport's scoring rules rather than rebuilt per game. This page describes how a projection is put together.

The model at a glance

• 2017 - Building and refining the same core model ever since
• 70+ - Input sources feeding the projections
• 1 - Model architecture, adapted per sport rather than rebuilt
• 15 min - Refresh cadence during active periods

How a projection is built

• Team-level goal expectation. Each fixture starts with an estimate of how many goals both sides should score, built from historical results, team strength and current bookmaker odds. This is the foundation every player projection sits on, and it feeds clean-sheet probability for defenders and goalkeepers.
• Expected minutes. A player who does not play cannot score. We project expected minutes for every player from selection history, predicted line-ups, confirmed XIs and injury news, then redistribute a team's minutes budget across the squad so the totals stay coherent.
• Per-player rate models. Expected goals and assists, cards, defensive contributions, saves and bonus-point potential are each projected separately, then combined with expected minutes and the scoring rules of the specific fantasy game to produce expected points (xP).
• Continuous revalidation. Projections are compared against the points players actually scored, and the model is adjusted from those gaps. Nothing is frozen: new match data, fresh odds or a confirmed line-up all push updated numbers to the site within minutes.

What it cannot do

A projection is a probability, not a promise. It cannot predict red cards, freak injuries or an early substitution, and it is less confident about newly promoted clubs and new signings where there is little history at that level. Measured results are on model performance.

See about TheFantasyTool for what the site does, and our team for who builds it.