UCL Fantasy Matchday 4: captain picks and best buys

UCL Fantasy Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

UCL Fantasy Matchday 4 is played on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November, and it is the round where several programs turn. Manchester City's run has gone from AEK at home to [A]RBL → [H]NAP → [A]BAR, Barcelona start the best three-matchday attacking run in the competition, and Paris Saint-Germain have the best defensive run while their attackers project few minutes. So the Matchday 4 transfers are decisions about Matchdays 4, 5 and 6 together: who to move off City and PSG, where that money goes, and which cheap players carry a run rather than a single night.

The full pool is sortable in the UCL Fantasy player picks, and the minutes behind every number below are in the UCL Fantasy predicted lineups. Last round's analysis is in our UCL Fantasy Matchday 3 preview.

The programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning

Barcelona have the best attacking run in the game: [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI adds up to 7.25 expected goals across Matchdays 4 to 6. Aston Villa at home is the strongest attacking fixture of the round (65% win probability, 2.37 expected goals), Sabah away follows, and the Manchester City game in Matchday 6 is the one to plan around rather than a reason to stay away. Bayern München are second on 6.94 with [A]ATM → [A]LIL → [H]SLP; Atlético away is a hard start (41% win probability), but Lille and Slavia Prague behind it are why Bayern's attackers stay worth owning.

The defensive runs belong to other teams. Paris Saint-Germain have the most expected clean sheets in the game at 1.08 from [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL, and Arsenal and Liverpool follow at 1.05 each. Arsenal's trip to Slavia Prague carries a 42% clean sheet chance, the best of the round, before [H]BVB and [H]RMA; Liverpool's [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR is the steadiest of the three, with a 30% to 39% clean sheet chance in every game. Real Madrid ([A]AEK → [H]PSV → [A]ARS) are third for goals at 6.46, with the Arsenal trip in Matchday 6 their only tough game.

Two programs have turned. Manchester City drop to 5.28 expected goals and 0.74 expected clean sheets: Leipzig away is a fair fixture (43% win probability), but Napoli and a trip to Barcelona follow, so City's assets are held on quality, not on fixtures. Aston Villa have the weakest run of the big names: [A]BAR → [A]GAL → [H]PSG is 3.67 expected goals and 0.50 expected clean sheets, and nobody from Villa is a buy in this window. The surprise is Bodø/Glimt, seventh on 5.50 expected goals thanks to [H]LIL → [H]LAS, two home games before the Lens trip.

Every team has three fixtures in this window, so the totals compare like for like. The 3-round CS column is expected clean sheets out of three games, not a percentage. The full fixture list is on the UCL Fantasy schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind these probabilities are on the UCL Fantasy market probabilities page.

Matchday 4 goalkeepers

Matvey Safonov (5.5m, PSG) is the keeper for this run: [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL, the best clean-sheet program in the game. He projects 3.8 → 4.1 → 3.8, top of the position both this round and over the three at 11.7, and he is only 6% owned. Alisson Becker (6.0m, LIV) is second over the three at 10.5 on [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR, for 0.5m more.

Tjark Ernst (4.0m, FEY) is the value keeper. Feyenoord's [H]INT → [H]POR → [A]VIK gives him a flat 3.3 → 3.4 → 3.3, 10.0 over the three, and 0.82 points per million this round, the best of any keeper. Dmytro Riznyk (4.5m, SD) is the alternative at 3.4 → 3.5 → 3.4 (10.3), with Shakhtar at home to Sporting and Fenerbahçe before the Slovan Bratislava trip. Both are near-zero ownership and both are holds you can stop thinking about.

David Raya owners (35%) can hold: Arsenal's 42% clean sheet chance at Slavia is the best of the round, and 3.5 → 3.3 → 3.1 only dips to 3.1 when Real Madrid visit in Matchday 6. Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.0m, MCI) is the keeper to move if you have the transfer: City's turned program leaves him on 3.2 → 3.3 → 2.8, 9.3 over three, against Safonov's 11.7 for 0.5m less.

Matchday 4 defenders

Sergi Altimira (4.0m, SCP) is still the best defender in the game, this round and over the next three. Sporting's [A]SD → [H]MUN → [A]ROM gives him 4.8 → 3.7 → 3.3, 11.8 in total, and 1.20 points per million this round, the best of any defender. The trajectory falls, so he is a buy for Matchdays 4 and 5 with Matchday 6 as the point to review him, and at 3% ownership he is still a differential.

Virgil van Dijk (6.0m, LIV) is the premium defender to hold for the whole window. [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR runs 4.0 → 3.6 → 3.9, 11.5 over the three and second in the position, and it never drops below 3.6. Gabriel (6.0m, ARS) is the Matchday 4 alternative at 4.1 against Slavia Prague with a 42% clean sheet chance, but [A]SLP → [H]BVB → [H]RMA falls to 3.7 and 3.2, 11.0 in total. Riccardo Calafiori (4.5m, ARS) is the cheaper Arsenal route at 3.6 → 3.3 → 2.9.

Here the round and the horizon disagree. Mauro Junior (4.0m, PSV) projects 4.3 against Club Brugge, second among defenders this round, but [H]CLB → [A]RMA → [H]ATM drops him to 2.6 in Matchday 5 and 10.5 over the three. Van Dijk out-scores him by a point over the window, so if you are buying one defender to keep, buy van Dijk; Mauro Junior is a one-matchday pick at a price where the swap costs nothing.

Two cheap defenders carry a run. Odin Lurås Bjørtuft (3.9m, BOD) gets both of Bodø/Glimt's home games, [H]LIL → [H]LAS → [A]RCL, at 3.7 → 4.5 → 2.8. That is 11.0 over the three and 0.95 points per million this round, third among defenders; plan to move him on after Matchday 5. Davinson Sánchez (4.5m, GAL) is the steadier one: [H]STU → [H]AVL → [A]AEK, 4.0 → 3.5 → 3.1, with 84 projected minutes, the most of any defender on this list.

One to buy a round later. Alex Freeman (3.9m, VIL) runs 2.9 → 3.2 → 4.9 on [H]PSG → [A]SLP → [H]SFK, and his Matchday 6 figure against Sabah is the second-highest projection of any player in the game that round. Paris at home is not his week, and his 59 projected minutes are a caution, so you can wait a round on him.

Matchday 4 midfielders

Lamine Yamal (10.2m, BAR) is the best midfielder in every round of the window: [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI, 6.0 → 5.9 → 5.0, 16.9 over the three. Against Villa he has 0.46 expected goals and 0.22 expected assists. He is 46% owned, so owning him protects your rank rather than gaining ground, and he is the top captain projection in all three matchdays.

Bruno Fernandes (9.0m, MUN) is second in the position both this round and over the window. Manchester United's [H]ROM → [A]SCP → [H]RBL gives him 5.4 → 4.6 → 4.8, 14.8 in total, and he is on penalties. Only 14% own him. Choosing between him and Jude Bellingham (8.5m, RMA, 22% owned, 3.8 → 4.0 → 3.3, 11.1 over three), the numbers favour Fernandes by more than three points.

Bukayo Saka (8.5m, ARS) is the premium differential at 3% ownership. [A]SLP → [H]BVB → [H]RMA keeps him at 4.7 → 4.7 → 4.3, 13.7 over the three, and he is Arsenal's penalty taker. His 63 projected minutes are the one caveat.

The hidden gem is Anis Hadj Moussa (6.6m, FEY): 1% owned and third among midfielders over the three at 14.0, ahead of Saka and the best of any player at 6.6m or less. Feyenoord's [H]INT → [H]POR → [A]VIK has him rising 4.5 → 4.7 → 4.8, which is why he is a buy now rather than a pick for Tuesday alone. Teammate Gjivai Zechiel (4.6m, FEY) is the budget version on the same program at 4.0 → 4.1 → 4.6, 12.7 over three.

The round ranking has two names the horizon does not. Zlatko Tripic (5.8m, VIK) projects 5.1 at home to Sabah, third among midfielders this round, with 0.37 expected goals as Viking's penalty taker. [H]SFK → [A]ATM → [H]FEY drops him to 3.5 in Matchday 5, so he is a one- or two-round pick with 63 projected minutes. Florian Thauvin (6.7m, RCL) holds up better: Lens' penalty taker on [H]COM → [A]RBL → [H]BOD runs 5.0 → 4.0 → 4.5, 13.5 over the three.

Bodø/Glimt's two home games make two cheap buys. Patrick Berg (5.0m, BOD) runs 4.4 → 5.2 → 3.7 and Ole Blomberg (5.0m, BOD) 4.3 → 5.3 → 3.6 on [H]LIL → [H]LAS → [A]RCL. Blomberg's 5.3 against LASK is the third-highest projection of any player in Matchday 5. Both peak a round from now, so this is the round to buy them, and Matchday 6 is the round to review. Aleksey Batrakov (4.5m, GAL) has the best points per million of any midfielder this round at 0.93, but his 4.2 → 3.5 → 2.9 makes him a short-term filler.

Hold the popular ones. Raphinha (30%) runs 4.8 → 4.8 → 4.0 and Michael Olise (32%) 4.2 → 4.1 → 4.5 on Bayern's good run, and Nico Paz (10%) is steady at 4.6 → 4.5 → 3.9 on [A]RCL → [H]AEK → [A]BET. None of them is the best use of the money, but none is a sale.

Matchday 4 forwards

Kylian Mbappé (11.0m, RMA) is the top forward over the window at 14.7: [A]AEK → [H]PSV → [A]ARS runs 5.1 → 5.6 → 4.0. Against AEK he has 0.58 expected goals, the most of any player this round, and he is on penalties. At 58% ownership he is the template; the Arsenal trip in Matchday 6 is his only weak week.

Erling Haaland (11.2m, MCI) is level with him at 14.6 over the three, and the buy for anyone without him. He is back to 73 projected minutes, he takes City's penalties, and 4.9 → 5.2 → 4.5 across [A]RBL → [H]NAP → [A]BAR shows he does not need City's fixtures to be easy. He is only 22% owned.

Victor Osimhen (7.9m, GAL) is the value premium and a real differential at 4% owned. Galatasaray's [H]STU → [H]AVL → [A]AEK starts with two home games; he projects 5.0 against Stuttgart (0.52 expected goals, on penalties) and 5.0 → 4.3 → 3.7, 13.0 over the three, third among forwards and 3.2m cheaper than Haaland. Serhou Guirassy (8.6m, BVB, 12% owned) is a hold at 4.5 → 3.5 → 4.1; the Arsenal trip in Matchday 5 is the dip.

Nicolo Tresoldi (7.2m, CLB) is Club Brugge's penalty taker and projects 4.4 → 3.8 → 3.6 on [A]PSV → [H]LIV → [A]NAP, 11.8 over three at 3% ownership. Peter Christiansen (6.0m, VIK) projects 4.5 at home to Sabah but 3.2 at Atlético in Matchday 5, so treat him like Tripic: a one-round play. The cheap forward is Aboubakary Koita (5.0m, AEK): 79 projected minutes, 3.6 → 3.2 → 3.4 on [H]RMA → [A]COM → [H]GAL, and 0.72 points per million, the best of any forward at 5.5m or less.

Matchday 4 captain picks

Lamine Yamal (10.2m, BAR) is the Matchday 4 captain, on a program of [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI. His 6.0 at home to Aston Villa is the highest projection in the game, and Barcelona's 65% win probability is the best of the round. The captain doubles his score, so that is 12.0 from the armband. Bruno Fernandes (5.4, [H]ROM) is the second choice and the best captain for anyone without Yamal; Kylian Mbappé (5.1, [A]AEK) is the third, level with Tripic but with the higher ceiling. Osimhen (5.0) and Haaland (4.9) are close behind.

The plan beyond this week is simple. Yamal is the top captain projection again in Matchday 5 ([A]SFK, 5.9) and Matchday 6 ([H]MCI, 5.0), with Mbappé second in Matchday 5 at 5.6 and Haaland at 5.2. Owning Yamal covers the armband for all three rounds; that is the strongest reason to keep him, more than anything in his Matchday 4 number.

Who to sell before Matchday 4

Rayan Cherki (7.0m, MCI) is the clearest sale. 19% own him, and he projects 2.9 → 3.2 → 2.7 across [A]RBL → [H]NAP → [A]BAR with 48 projected minutes, only 8.8 over the three. Leipzig away is a fair fixture, not the problem. Why now: City's run turns this round and his projection never reaches 3.5 in it, so the 7.0m buys Hadj Moussa's 14.0 or Thauvin's 13.5 for the same three matchdays.

Ousmane Dembélé (10.2m, PSG) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (9.9m, PSG) are the next two. Paris have the best clean-sheet run in the game and [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL is a decent attacking program, so the fixtures are not the reason. The minutes are: 40 projected for Dembélé and 43 for Kvaratskhelia, leaving them on 7.3 and 9.0 over the three. Why now: neither gets above 3.2 in any round of the window, so no later round is a better time to move them, and their money is worth most on Fernandes or Haaland, whose runs start this matchday.

Harry Kane (11.1m, FCB) is a price sale for the 51% who own him. Bayern's [A]ATM → [A]LIL → [H]SLP is the second-best attacking run in the game, and Kane is steady at 3.8 → 3.7 → 4.2. But 11.7 over the three is below Haaland's 14.6 for 0.1m more, and below Osimhen's 13.0 for 3.2m less. Why now: Haaland's two best rounds of the window are Matchdays 4 and 5, while Kane's best is Matchday 6, so if you are switching, the switch gains most made this round.

Nuno Mendes (6.0m, PSG) is owned by 25% and projects 43 minutes and 2.3 points this round, 2.3 → 2.6 → 2.3 across [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL and 7.2 over the three. Why now: PSG's clean-sheet run starts here, and Safonov (11.7 at 5.5m) is the better way into it, while the same 6.0m buys van Dijk's 11.5. Pau Cubarsi (5.5m, BAR, 21% owned) is in the same position on 55 projected minutes and 7.3 over three; Altimira scores 4.5 more for 1.5m less, but if transfers are short you can wait a round on him.

Check your squad for zeros. Jules Koundé (5.5m, BAR, 0.0 → 2.4 → 2.0) and Lautaro Martinez (9.5m, INT, 0.0 → 2.6 → 2.3) are the most-owned outfield players projecting nothing this round. William Saliba (5.5m, ARS, 0.0 → 0.0 → 0.5) and Antoine Semenyo (7.0m, MCI, 0.0 in all three) are the ones to sell first. Why now: a zero is a lost slot this round, and for Saliba and Semenyo no later round in the window is any better.

Best Limitless team for Matchday 4

If you play the Limitless chip this matchday, the budget is lifted for one round and the three-per-club limit still applies. The best squad for Matchday 4 alone, in a 3-4-3, projects 53.5 points from the starting eleven before the captain, and 59.5 with Yamal's armband:

• GK: Matvey Safonov (PSG, 5.5m, 3.8)
• DEF: Sergi Altimira (SCP, 4.0m, 4.8), Mauro Junior (PSV, 4.0m, 4.3), Gabriel (ARS, 6.0m, 4.1)
• MID: Lamine Yamal (BAR, 10.2m, 6.0), Bruno Fernandes (MUN, 9.0m, 5.4), Zlatko Tripic (VIK, 5.8m, 5.1), Florian Thauvin (RCL, 6.7m, 5.0)
• FWD: Kylian Mbappé (RMA, 11.0m, 5.1), Victor Osimhen (GAL, 7.9m, 5.0), Erling Haaland (MCI, 11.2m, 4.9)
• Bench: Raphinha (BAR, 4.8), Virgil van Dijk (LIV, 4.0), Davinson Sánchez (GAL, 4.0), Alisson Becker (LIV, 3.6)

The spread is the point: no club has more than two players, and the projections are close from top to bottom, so Matchday 4 has no single fixture worth chasing with the chip. Most managers will get more from saving Limitless for a round where their own squad is badly hit. For the exact optimum under the game's own rules, see the optimal teams for UCL Fantasy.

Every matchday preview is collected in the UCL Fantasy preview hub, our UCL Fantasy tips guide covers the strategy, and the season-long overview is in UCL Fantasy: the all-in-one preview.

FAQ

Who should I captain in UCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Lamine Yamal is the top captain pick for UCL Fantasy Matchday 4 with 6.0 projected points at home to Aston Villa. Bruno Fernandes (5.4 against Roma) is the alternative, and Yamal is also the best captain projection for Matchdays 5 and 6.

Should I sell Harry Kane before UCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Yes, if you can afford the swap. Harry Kane projects 11.7 over Matchdays 4 to 6, while Erling Haaland projects 14.6 for 0.1m more and Victor Osimhen 13.0 for 3.2m less. Bayern's fixtures are good; the case is about price.

Is Haaland worth buying for UCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Yes. Erling Haaland is back to 73 projected minutes and projects 4.9, 5.2 and 4.5 across Matchdays 4 to 6, level with Kylian Mbappé over the three, and he is only 22% owned.

Which budget defenders are best for UCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Sergi Altimira (4.0m, Sporting CP) is the best budget defender, with 4.8 projected this round and 11.8 over Matchdays 4 to 6. Odin Lurås Bjørtuft (3.9m, Bodø/Glimt) gets two home games and 11.0 over the three.

Who are the best differentials for UCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Anis Hadj Moussa (1% owned, 14.0 over three matchdays), Victor Osimhen (4% owned, 13.0) and Bukayo Saka (3% owned, 13.7) are the best attacking differentials, and Matvey Safonov (6% owned) is the low-owned keeper with the best clean-sheet run.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.