UCL Fantasy Matchday 3: captain picks and best buys
UCL Fantasy Matchday 3 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell
UCL Fantasy Matchday 3 kicks off on Tuesday 20 October, and the transfers you make now set your squad for a three-Matchday stretch. Manchester City host AEK Athens with the highest win probability of the round (92%), but the bigger question is what comes after. Real Madrid have the best attacking run of the next three Matchdays, Manchester City the best defensive one, and Bayern München, the most-owned club in the game, have no soft fixture in the next three. This preview ranks the programs first, then gives the buys, the captain and the sells that follow from them.
Every number below is the model's projected points (xP) for UCL Fantasy player picks, and the line-up assumptions come from our predicted line-ups for the Champions League. If you missed last week, the UCL Fantasy Matchday 2 preview covers the picks that got us here.
Matchday 3 programs: whose next three Matchdays are worth owning
All 36 clubs play once in each of Matchdays 3, 4 and 5, so the three-Matchday totals below compare like with like. The table is sorted by expected goals over the three Matchdays; "3-MD CS" is expected clean sheets across the three games, not a percentage.
| Team | Matchday 3 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD3-MD5) | 3-MD xG | 3-MD CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | [H]RBL | 76% | 2.90 | 37% | [H]RBL → [A]AEK → [H]PSV | 7.99 | 1.02 |
| Manchester City | [H]AEK | 92% | 3.57 | 65% | [H]AEK → [A]RBL → [H]NAP | 7.48 | 1.25 |
| Barcelona | [A]PSG | 38% | 1.99 | 13% | [A]PSG → [H]AVL → [A]SFK | 7.23 | 0.88 |
| Inter | [H]SD | 81% | 3.02 | 44% | [H]SD → [A]FEY → [H]STU | 6.53 | 1.04 |
| Atletico Madrid | [A]STU | 43% | 1.73 | 22% | [A]STU → [H]FCB → [H]VIK | 6.33 | 0.70 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | [H]BAR | 40% | 2.05 | 14% | [H]BAR → [A]VIL → [H]ROM | 5.88 | 0.92 |
| Arsenal | [A]FCB | 30% | 1.37 | 18% | [A]FCB → [A]SLP → [H]BVB | 5.73 | 0.97 |
| Bayern München | [H]ARS | 44% | 1.69 | 26% | [H]ARS → [A]ATM → [A]LIL | 5.71 | 0.68 |
| Liverpool | [H]VIL | 63% | 2.20 | 36% | [H]VIL → [A]FB → [A]CLB | 5.66 | 1.01 |
| Sporting CP | [H]LAS | 76% | 2.78 | 42% | [H]LAS → [A]SD → [H]MUN | 5.51 | 0.94 |
| Aston Villa | [H]VIK | 78% | 2.89 | 42% | [H]VIK → [A]BAR → [A]GAL | 5.46 | 0.70 |
| Real Betis | [H]FEY | 64% | 2.32 | 33% | [H]FEY → [A]BVB → [A]SLB | 5.43 | 0.85 |
Real Madrid lead on attack with 7.99 expected goals across [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens → [H]PSV Eindhoven. The Leipzig game is the toughest of the three, and both the AEK trip and the PSV home game that follow it are fixtures to own attackers for. Manchester City are the defensive pick: 1.25 expected clean sheets from [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig → [H]Napoli, with a 65% clean sheet chance this week alone, the best of the round. Inter ([H]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Feyenoord → [H]VfB Stuttgart), Real Madrid and Liverpool ([H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe → [A]Club Brugge) also clear one expected clean sheet.
Two programs are better than they look this week. Arsenal start with a tough away trip to Bayern, but [A]Slavia Prague and [H]Borussia Dortmund follow, which is why the Arsenal defence is a hold, not a sell. Sporting CP ([H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk → [H]Manchester United) are the cheap route into a good defensive run: a 41% clean sheet chance this week, 0.94 expected clean sheets over the three, and low-priced defenders who keep scoring through Matchday 5.
At the bottom, AEK Athens ([A]Manchester City → [H]Real Madrid → [A]Como) project just 2.60 expected goals over the three Matchdays, and Slovan Bratislava, Sabah FK and Slavia Prague are not far above them. Players from those clubs are not worth a transfer for the next three Matchdays. The full fixture grid is on the UCL Fantasy schedule, and the match odds behind it are on our Champions League market probabilities page.
Best UCL Fantasy goalkeepers for Matchday 3
Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.0m, MCI) is the top goalkeeper for both this Matchday and the next three: 4.8 → 3.3 → 3.7, 11.8 xP in total, with a program of [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig → [H]Napoli. The Leipzig away game is the weak link, but a 65% clean sheet chance this week and a home game against Napoli after it make up for it, and only 7% of managers own him.
Josep Martinez (4.5m, INT) is the value option. 4.1 → 3.5 → 3.9 adds up to 11.5 xP, only 0.3 behind Donnarumma for 1.5m less, from [H]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Feyenoord → [H]VfB Stuttgart. Inter have a 44% clean sheet chance against Shakhtar, and the program is flat, so you can buy him and stop thinking about the position. Thibaut Courtois (6.0m, RMA) is the steady premium alternative, with 3.9 → 3.7 → 3.8 from [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens → [H]PSV Eindhoven, if you already own him. There is no reason to move him on.
Best UCL Fantasy defenders for Matchday 3
Sergi Altimira (4.0m, SCP) is the best defender in the game over the next three Matchdays and one of the cheapest. He projects 5.8 → 4.9 → 4.1 across [H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk → [H]Manchester United, 14.8 xP in total and more than anyone else at the position. Sporting have a 41% clean sheet chance against LASK this week and have allowed 0.98 expected goals per game this season. Only 2% of managers own him. His team-mate Goncalo Inacio (4.5m, SCP) is the second Sporting option on the same program, projecting 4.8 → 4.0 → 3.3. Remember the three-per-club cap if you also want Sporting midfielders.
Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) is where the round ranking and the three-Matchday ranking disagree. The Dortmund defenders out-score him this week, with Nico Schlotterbeck on 5.5 against his 4.2, but Grimaldo has 13.5 xP over [A]VfB Stuttgart → [H]Bayern München → [H]Viking against Schlotterbeck's 11.5. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Grimaldo. The Matchday 5 home game against Viking is the best single fixture of his run (5.5 xP).
Virgil van Dijk (6.0m, LIV) is the premium that holds its value over [H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe → [A]Club Brugge: 4.3 → 4.2 → 3.9, 12.4 xP, and his projection barely moves across the window. For 1.0m less, Matheus Nunes (5.0m, MCI) is the cheap way into the City defence, at 4.9 → 3.0 → 3.5 over [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig → [H]Napoli.
Dortmund's defenders are a one-Matchday play. They have a 40% clean sheet chance away at Sabah, but Betis and Arsenal follow, and Schlotterbeck drops from 5.5 to 2.4. Buy one only if you are planning to move him on again after this week.
Plan ahead for Fredrik Sjøvold (4.5m, BOD). Bodø/Glimt's program is [A]Napoli → [H]Lille → [H]LASK, and his projection climbs 3.0 → 4.1 → 5.4. The Napoli away game makes him a poor buy this week, but he is one of the best defender transfers for Matchday 4.
Best UCL Fantasy midfielders for Matchday 3
Lamine Yamal (10.1m, BAR) is the one premium nobody should sell. His projection rises across all three Matchdays, 6.5 → 6.7 → 7.3 over [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa → [A]Sabah FK, for 20.5 xP, the most of any player in the game. Barcelona average 3.37 expected goals per game this season, and Yamal has 12 goals with 1.12 expected goal involvements per 90.
Bruno Fernandes (9.0m, MUN) is the next-best midfielder over the window: 5.3 → 6.2 → 5.2, 16.7 xP, from [A]Como → [H]Roma → [A]Sporting CP. Roma at home in Matchday 4 is the best of his three games, so this is the Matchday to bring him in, before that game. Vinicius Junior (9.5m, RMA) is the premium differential at 6% owned. Real Madrid's [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens → [H]PSV Eindhoven gives him a steady 5.5 → 4.5 → 5.3, 15.3 xP in total.
Dominik Szoboszlai (7.1m, LIV) is listed as unavailable only until 17 October, so the model has him back for Matchday 3. He projects a steady 5.4 → 4.7 → 4.6 over [H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe → [A]Club Brugge. Nico Paz (7.0m, COM) runs 5.0 → 4.5 → 5.3 over [H]Manchester United → [A]Lens → [H]AEK Athens and peaks against AEK in Matchday 5.
Our hidden gem is Patrick Berg (5.0m, BOD). He is the third-best midfielder in the game over the three Matchdays, with 16.0 xP and a rising projection of 4.6 → 5.1 → 6.3 across [A]Napoli → [H]Lille → [H]LASK. Only 2% of managers own him. Two home games in Matchdays 4 and 5 are why he is worth buying now, before the run starts. Anis Hadj Moussa (6.5m, FEY) is a deeper differential with the same shape, 4.4 → 4.8 → 5.3 over [A]Real Betis → [H]Inter → [H]FC Porto.
For a cheaper Sporting midfielder, Issa Doumbia (4.5m, SCP) projects 4.9 → 4.1 → 3.6 over [H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk → [H]Manchester United, and Geny Catamo (6.6m, SCP) is the higher-ceiling Sporting option this week at 5.9 → 4.3 → 4.2. Aston Villa's Emiliano Buendia and John McGinn both project well against Viking (5.7 and 5.6), but Villa then go to Barcelona and Galatasaray, so they are one-Matchday plays at best. Zlatko Tripic of Viking projects 6.0 at home to Sabah in Matchday 4. He is a buy for next week, not this one.
Best UCL Fantasy forwards for Matchday 3
Kylian Mbappé (11.0m, RMA) and Erling Haaland (11.1m, MCI) are level over the three Matchdays, 18.6 xP against 18.5. They are shaped differently, though. Haaland front-loads it with 7.8 → 5.0 → 5.7 from [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig → [H]Napoli, while Mbappé holds steady at 6.7 → 5.5 → 6.4 from [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens → [H]PSV Eindhoven. Owning one of them is close to mandatory. Owning both is the cleanest captaincy plan for the next three weeks.
Serhou Guirassy (8.6m, BVB) out-projects Mbappé this week, 6.9 to 6.7, but the three-Matchday picture runs the other way. His 6.9 → 4.7 → 3.7 over [A]Sabah FK → [H]Real Betis → [A]Arsenal totals 15.3, 3.3 below Mbappé. He is a strong one-week captain, not a long hold.
Donyell Malen (6.5m, ROM) is the value forward: 6.8 xP this week at home to Slovan Bratislava, and he has 6 goals and 1.01 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. His program, [H]Slovan Bratislava → [A]Manchester United → [A]Paris Saint-Germain, gets harder after this week (6.8 → 3.8 → 3.4), so he is a buy for this Matchday that you can hold as a bench forward afterwards. For a longer hold, Victor Osimhen (8.0m, GAL) rises 4.1 → 4.9 → 4.4 over [A]Lille → [H]VfB Stuttgart → [H]Aston Villa, with 1.42 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. Nicolo Tresoldi (7.0m, CLB) is the low-owned alternative, with 4.7 → 4.2 → 3.8 over [H]Lens → [A]PSV Eindhoven → [H]Liverpool.
UCL Fantasy Matchday 3 captain picks
Erling Haaland (11.1m, MCI) is the captain. His 7.8 xP is the highest projection of the round. City have a 92% win probability against AEK Athens, and the model gives him 1.15 expected goals on his own. He has 11 goals from 11 games this season, so the form backs it up.
Serhou Guirassy (6.9) and Kylian Mbappé (6.7) are the alternatives. Mbappé is the safer choice for rank protection, with 56% ownership against Guirassy's 11%. Donyell Malen (6.8) is the differential captain, and Lamine Yamal (6.5) is close behind.
Plan beyond this week, too. In Matchday 4 the best captain options are Raphinha (6.8) and Lamine Yamal (6.7). In Matchday 5 Yamal tops the list again with 7.3. A squad that holds Haaland or Mbappé plus Yamal has a strong captain in every one of the next three Matchdays.
Who to sell before UCL Fantasy Matchday 3
Harry Kane (11.0m, FCB) is the main sell, and 54% of managers own him. His form is not the problem: he has 14 goals and 1.22 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. Arsenal at home is a reasonable fixture, and Bayern have a 44% win probability. But [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid → [A]Lille gives him a flat 4.3 → 4.4 → 4.6, 13.3 xP, against 18.5 for Haaland. The reason to do it now is that Haaland's best game of the window is this one, 7.8 against AEK Athens. Wait a week and you buy him for a Leipzig away game instead.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (10.0m, PSG) is the second sell, at 22% owned. Paris Saint-Germain at home to Barcelona is a good attacking fixture, but the model starts him only about half the time, so he projects 3.6 → 2.9 → 3.3 over [H]Barcelona → [A]Villarreal → [H]Roma. Selling now frees the money for Bruno Fernandes before his Matchday 4 peak, or for Vinicius Junior.
The Barcelona defence is the third. Pau Cubarsi (5.5m, BAR), 22% owned, and Joan Garcia (5.0m, BAR), 16% owned, face [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa → [A]Sabah FK, with a 13% clean sheet chance in Paris. They improve slightly after this week, to 2.0 → 2.6 → 2.8 for Cubarsi, but even their better weeks fall short of what a 4.0m Sporting defender projects now. Moving them this week catches the start of Altimira's and Martinez's runs.
Do not sell Raphinha. He misses Matchday 3, but he is due back for Matchday 4 with 6.8 and 7.2, level with Yamal for the best two-week projection of any midfielder. If you have a bench midfielder to cover this week, keep him. The same goes for David Raya and Gabriel. The Bayern away game is their low point, and [A]Bayern München → [A]Slavia Prague → [H]Borussia Dortmund rises from there.
Best Limitless team for UCL Fantasy Matchday 3
If you are playing Limitless this week, this is the squad with the highest projection for Matchday 3 alone, within the three-per-club cap. The XI is a 3-4-3, with Erling Haaland as captain, and projects 74.8 xP with the captain counted twice. For the exact live optimum, use the UCL Fantasy optimal teams solver.
| Pos | Player | Club | Matchday 3 fixture | xP | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Gianluigi Donnarumma | Manchester City | [H]AEK | 4.8 | Starting XI |
| GK | Pierluigi Gollini | Roma | [H]SLB | 4.3 | Bench |
| DEF | Sergi Altimira | Sporting CP | [H]LAS | 5.8 | Starting XI |
| DEF | Julian Ryerson | Borussia Dortmund | [A]SFK | 5.7 | Starting XI |
| DEF | Nico Schlotterbeck | Borussia Dortmund | [A]SFK | 5.5 | Starting XI |
| DEF | Matheus Nunes | Manchester City | [H]AEK | 4.9 | Bench |
| DEF | Wesley | Roma | [H]SLB | 4.9 | Bench |
| MID | Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | [A]PSG | 6.5 | Starting XI |
| MID | Geny Catamo | Sporting CP | [H]LAS | 5.9 | Starting XI |
| MID | Emiliano Buendia | Aston Villa | [H]VIK | 5.7 | Starting XI |
| MID | John McGinn | Aston Villa | [H]VIK | 5.6 | Starting XI |
| MID | Vinicius Junior | Real Madrid | [H]RBL | 5.5 | Bench |
| FWD | Erling Haaland (C) | Manchester City | [H]AEK | 7.8 | Starting XI |
| FWD | Serhou Guirassy | Borussia Dortmund | [A]SFK | 6.9 | Starting XI |
| FWD | Donyell Malen | Roma | [H]SLB | 6.8 | Starting XI |
Want more? Our UCL Fantasy tips guide covers the strategy, and every Matchday preview lives in the UCL Fantasy preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in UCL Fantasy Matchday 3?
Erling Haaland is the captain for Matchday 3, with 7.8 projected points at home to AEK Athens, the highest projection of the round. Serhou Guirassy (6.9) and Kylian Mbappé (6.7) are the alternatives, and Donyell Malen (6.8) is the differential pick.
Should I sell Harry Kane before UCL Fantasy Matchday 3?
Yes, if it funds Haaland or Mbappé. Kane projects 4.3 → 4.4 → 4.6 over Bayern's next three Matchdays (13.3 in total), while Haaland projects 18.5 and Mbappé 18.6. Haaland's best game of the window is this Matchday, so this week is the time to switch.
Who are the best UCL Fantasy differentials for Matchday 3?
Patrick Berg (5.0m, Bodø/Glimt) is the best low-owned pick, with 16.0 xP over the next three Matchdays and a rising projection. Sergi Altimira (4.0m, Sporting CP) and Vinicius Junior (9.5m, Real Madrid) are the other differentials worth owning.
Which budget defenders are best for UCL Fantasy Matchday 3?
Sergi Altimira (4.0m) is the best budget defender, and the best defender of any price over the next three Matchdays with 14.8 xP. Goncalo Inacio (4.5m) is a second Sporting option, and Fredrik Sjøvold (4.5m) is the one to buy for Matchday 4.
Should I keep Raphinha for UCL Fantasy Matchday 3?
Yes, if you can cover him from the bench. Raphinha misses Matchday 3 but is due back for Matchday 4, where he projects 6.8, followed by 7.2 in Matchday 5. That makes him one of the best captain options in both weeks.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.