UCL Fantasy Matchday 2: captain picks and best buys
UCL Fantasy Matchday 2 tips: best buys, captain picks and differentials
UCL Fantasy Matchday 2 kicks off on 13 October, and the injury list is still where the round starts. Raphinha is out until 26 October and projects zero in Matchday 2 and Matchday 3. Alexander Isak is out until 17 October and also projects zero this round. Dominik Szoboszlai is listed back from 14 October but projects only 1.6. They are owned by 36%, 11% and 15% of managers. The rest of the slate is easy to read for one week: Bayern München travel to Viking with an 88% win probability and 3.78 expected goals. The harder question is what comes after. Bayern then face [H]ARS and [A]ATM, while Arsenal, Liverpool and Inter hold the best three-round defensive runs, and Bukayo Saka, Serhou Guirassy and Bruno Fernandes carry programs that last longer than this one round. Judge every transfer on Matchday 2 to Matchday 4, not on Matchday 2 alone.
All numbers below are projected points from our model, pulled on 13 October. The full table sits on the UCL Fantasy player picks page, and our UCL Fantasy Matchday 1 preview covers the opening round.
Matchday 2 programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning
Bayern München have the best three-matchday attacking run in the game at 7.36 expected goals ([A]VIK → [H]ARS → [A]ATM), but more than half of that sits in the Viking game, so their attackers are a Matchday 2 peak rather than a three-round hold. Barcelona ([A]GAL → [A]PSG → [H]AVL, 6.64) and Real Madrid ([A]ROM → [H]RBL → [A]AEK, 6.38) are more evenly spread, and Inter ([H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY, 6.23) have two home games before the Feyenoord trip. Barcelona's trip to Paris is the week to plan around, not a reason to sell Lamine Yamal.
For defenders and goalkeepers, Arsenal lead on 1.16 expected clean sheets over three matchdays ([H]LIL → [A]FCB → [A]SLP), just ahead of Liverpool (1.13, [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB) and Inter (1.12, [H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY). Arsenal also have the best clean-sheet chance of Matchday 2 itself at 55%, and the Slavia trip in Matchday 4 (43%) makes up for the Bayern game in between. Liverpool are the flattest of the three, never below 36% in the window. Sporting CP are the quiet fourth at 0.93 expected clean sheets, and they have allowed only 0.89 xG per game this season.
Check the full UCL Fantasy schedule for the later rounds, and the UCL Fantasy market probabilities behind these team numbers.
| Team | Matchday 2 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD2-MD4) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [A]VIK | 88% | 3.78 | 43% | [A]VIK → [H]ARS → [A]ATM | 7.36 | 0.82 |
| Barcelona | [A]GAL | 74% | 3.11 | 29% | [A]GAL → [A]PSG → [H]AVL | 6.64 | 0.82 |
| Real Madrid | [A]ROM | 51% | 2.02 | 24% | [A]ROM → [H]RBL → [A]AEK | 6.38 | 0.83 |
| Inter | [H]CLB | 78% | 2.75 | 45% | [H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY | 6.23 | 1.12 |
| Liverpool | [A]LAS | 75% | 2.70 | 41% | [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB | 6.13 | 1.13 |
| Manchester City | [H]PSG | 44% | 1.84 | 21% | [H]PSG → [H]AEK → [A]RBL | 6.12 | 0.87 |
| Arsenal | [H]LIL | 80% | 2.60 | 55% | [H]LIL → [A]FCB → [A]SLP | 6.06 | 1.16 |
| Borussia Dortmund | [A]BOD | 47% | 2.01 | 20% | [A]BOD → [A]SFK → [H]BET | 5.87 | 0.75 |
| VfB Stuttgart | [A]SLB | 74% | 2.73 | 39% | [A]SLB → [H]ATM → [A]GAL | 5.66 | 0.69 |
| Aston Villa | [H]FB | 58% | 1.99 | 34% | [H]FB → [H]VIK → [A]BAR | 5.44 | 0.80 |
| Atletico Madrid | [H]MUN | 50% | 1.89 | 27% | [H]MUN → [A]STU → [H]FCB | 5.43 | 0.63 |
| Como | [A]FEY | 49% | 1.98 | 23% | [A]FEY → [H]MUN → [A]RCL | 5.20 | 0.68 |
| RB Leipzig | [H]PSV | 60% | 2.46 | 24% | [H]PSV → [A]RMA → [H]MCI | 5.11 | 0.54 |
| Sporting CP | [A]RCL | 37% | 1.54 | 21% | [A]RCL → [H]LAS → [A]SD | 5.04 | 0.93 |
3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets across the three matchdays, not a percentage. All 36 teams have exactly one fixture in each of Matchday 2, 3 and 4, so the totals compare like with like.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 2
Josep Martinez (4.5m, INT) is the pick. Inter's [H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY run gives him 4.2 → 4.2 → 3.4, 11.8 over three, the best three-round total of any goalkeeper, and only 2% of managers own him. Club Brugge arrive with 0.79 expected goals, one of the lowest numbers of the round.
Alisson Becker (6.0m, LIV) is the premium option on Liverpool's [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB program: 4.0 → 3.9 → 3.8, 11.7 over three, the steadiest run of any keeper. David Raya projects highest of all keepers for Matchday 2 alone (4.5), but drops to 3.1 at Bayern before recovering to 4.1 at Slavia, also 11.7 over three. Raya owners (37%) do not need to move him for one tough fixture; if you are buying a keeper now, Martinez does the same job for 1.5m less.
On a tighter price, Zion Suzuki (4.0m, AVL) scores 3.8 → 3.9 → 2.9, 10.6 over three on Aston Villa's [H]FB → [H]VIK → [A]BAR, with two home games before the Barcelona trip, and Rui Silva (5.0m, SCP) has 3.3 → 4.0 → 3.6, 10.9 over three on Sporting's [A]RCL → [H]LAS → [A]SD, with the LASK home game as the peak.
Best defenders for Matchday 2
Sergi Altimira (4.0m, SCP) is the hidden gem of the position and the best defender over the window: 5.1 → 6.1 → 5.2, 16.4 over three on Sporting's [A]RCL → [H]LAS → [A]SD, and only 1% of managers own him. His Matchday 3 projection against LASK is the highest of any player in the game that week, and at 4.0m he is the cheapest way into a flat, reliable run.
Alphonso Davies (5.0m, FCB) is the top defender of Matchday 2 at 6.4, with Bayern at Viking and a 43% clean-sheet chance, and he has 1.67 xA this season. His program is [A]VIK → [H]ARS → [A]ATM (6.4 → 4.1 → 3.5, 14.0 over three), so the case is front-loaded. This is where the round and the horizon disagree: Davies wins Matchday 2, Altimira wins the three rounds by 2.4 points for 1.0m less. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Altimira.
Virgil van Dijk (6.0m, LIV) is the premium defender to own on Liverpool's [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB: 5.3 → 4.6 → 4.4, 14.3 over three, second only to Altimira, and he stays at 4.2 or better through Matchday 6. He is the only Liverpool defender worth buying right now; the next-best Liverpool defender, Jeremie Frimpong, has only 10.2 over the same three rounds.
The cheaper route into a strong program is Federico Dimarco (5.0m, INT): 5.7 → 4.7 → 3.3, 13.7 over three on Inter's [H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY, owned by 4%. Both home games come first, so he is a two-round buy that you can hold or move after Matchday 3. Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) matches him at 13.7 (5.2 → 4.5 → 4.0 on [H]MUN → [A]STU → [H]FCB) and then rises to 5.6 in Matchday 5, the longer hold of the two.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD2 | MD3 | MD4 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergi Altimira | SCP | 4.0m | 1% | 5.1 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 16.4 |
| Virgil van Dijk | LIV | 6.0m | 15% | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 |
| Alphonso Davies | FCB | 5.0m | 7% | 6.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 14.0 |
| Federico Dimarco | INT | 5.0m | 4% | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13.7 |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | ATM | 5.5m | 6% | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 13.7 |
| Gabriel | ARS | 6.0m | 29% | 5.8 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 13.5 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | BVB | 5.0m | 1% | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 12.6 |
| Achraf Hakimi | PSG | 6.0m | 28% | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 12.5 |
Gabriel is the popular defender with the sharpest dip: 5.8 → 3.3 → 4.4, 13.5 over three. Matchday 2 at home to Lille is a good week, so there is no rush to sell, but he is not the defender to buy now. The PSG full-backs go the other way (3.8 → 4.4 → 4.3, 12.5 over three for Hakimi, 3.4 → 4.1 → 4.1, 11.6 over three for Nuno Mendes), so owners can hold them through the City away game.
Best midfielders for Matchday 2
Lamine Yamal (10.0m, BAR) is the best player in the game over three matchdays: 8.9 → 5.3 → 6.8, 21.0 over three on Barcelona's [A]GAL → [A]PSG → [H]AVL, with 12 goals, 8 assists and 0.90 xGI per 90 this season. With Raphinha out, he is the Barcelona attacker to own. Michael Olise (9.0m, FCB) follows on 8.1 → 5.1 → 4.8, 18.0 over three on Bayern's [A]VIK → [H]ARS → [A]ATM, with 6.61 xA this season. Both are already widely owned (39% and 51%), so the edge lies in the picks around them.
Bukayo Saka (8.5m, ARS) is that edge. He scores 7.1 → 4.9 → 5.0, 17.0 over three on Arsenal's [H]LIL → [A]FCB → [A]SLP, level with Luis Diaz for the third-best midfield total over the window, at 3% owned and 0.92 xGI per 90 this season. The Bayern away game is his dip, not a collapse, and the Lille home game makes him the natural Raphinha replacement this week. Bruno Fernandes (9.0m, MUN) is the flatter alternative: 4.9 → 5.0 → 5.7, 15.6 over three on Manchester United's [A]ATM → [A]COM → [H]ROM, peaking in Matchday 4, with 3.42 xA this season. Saka out-scores him this round by 2.2 and over three by 1.4, while Bruno's run stays close to 5.0 through Matchday 7. Buy Saka for the immediate return, Bruno if you want a midfielder you can stop thinking about.
Szoboszlai owners need a Liverpool replacement, and Florian Wirtz (8.5m, LIV) is it: 6.1 → 4.9 → 4.5, 15.5 over three on [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB, owned by 1%. Nico Paz (7.0m, COM) is the best value midfielder: 5.9 → 5.3 → 4.6, 15.8 over three at 7.0m on Como's [A]FEY → [H]MUN → [A]RCL. Luis Diaz (8.0m, FCB) (7.5 → 4.9 → 4.6, 17.0 over three on [A]VIK → [H]ARS → [A]ATM) is the cheaper Bayern route into the Viking game, but like Olise his numbers fall once Arsenal and Atletico arrive.
Hidden gems with real upside: Anis Hadj Moussa (6.5m, FEY) (5.1 → 4.9 → 5.0, 15.0 over three, five goals this season) on Feyenoord's [H]COM → [A]BET → [H]INT, and Florian Thauvin (6.5m, RCL) (5.0 → 4.9 → 4.9, 14.8 over three, 1.00 xGI per 90 this season) on Lens' [H]SCP → [A]CLB → [H]COM, owned by under 1% and 2%. On a budget, Patrick Berg (5.0m, BOD) has 5.1 → 4.8 → 5.1, 15.0 over three on Bodø/Glimt's [H]BVB → [A]NAP → [H]LIL, the best three-round total of any midfielder at 5.5m or less, and his number climbs to 6.0 in Matchday 5. He is owned by 2%.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD2 | MD3 | MD4 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | BAR | 10.0m | 39% | 8.9 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 21.0 |
| Michael Olise | FCB | 9.0m | 51% | 8.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 18.0 |
| Bukayo Saka | ARS | 8.5m | 3% | 7.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 17.0 |
| Luis Diaz | FCB | 8.0m | 13% | 7.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 17.0 |
| Nico Paz | COM | 7.0m | 9% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 15.8 |
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | 9.0m | 17% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 15.6 |
| Florian Wirtz | LIV | 8.5m | 1% | 6.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 15.5 |
| Patrick Berg | BOD | 5.0m | 2% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 15.0 |
| Anis Hadj Moussa | FEY | 6.5m | under 1% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 15.0 |
| Florian Thauvin | RCL | 6.5m | 2% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 14.8 |
Best forwards for Matchday 2
Kylian Mbappé (11.0m, RMA) has the highest three-round total of any forward (5.5 → 6.0 → 5.5, 17.0 over three) on Real Madrid's [A]ROM → [H]RBL → [A]AEK, with 15 goals from 13.85 xG this season, and he rises to 6.5 in Matchday 5. 56% own him and there is no reason to move.
Serhou Guirassy (8.5m, BVB) is the forward to buy: 5.2 → 5.6 → 4.6, 15.4 over three on Dortmund's [A]BOD → [A]SFK → [H]BET, the second-best forward total of the window at 2.5m less than the premiums. He has 0.84 xG per 90 this season and is owned by 11%. His peak is the Sabah trip in Matchday 3, so the buy has to be in before it.
Erling Haaland (11.0m, MCI) is the forward you can wait a round on: 5.0 → 5.8 → 4.3, 15.1 over three on City's [H]PSG → [H]AEK → [A]RBL, owned by 22%, with 13 goals from 9.92 xG this season. The PSG game is not his week, and the AEK home game in Matchday 3 is. This is the other place where the round and the horizon disagree: Harry Kane out-scores him in Matchday 2 (6.8 against 5.0) and the two are level over three rounds (15.2 against 15.1), but from Matchday 3 to Matchday 5 Haaland leads 15.1 to 12.5. That is why Kane to Haaland is a move for after Matchday 2, not before it.
Deniz Undav (7.0m, STU) is the one-round option: 6.4 at Slovan Bratislava, the second-highest forward projection of the round, then 4.4 and 4.0 on [A]SLB → [H]ATM → [A]GAL, so buy him only if you plan to move him on after Matchday 2. Lautaro Martinez (9.5m, INT) is the premium differential at 4% owned (5.8 → 4.4 → 3.2, 13.4 over three on Inter's [H]CLB → [H]SD → [A]FEY, 0.97 xG per 90 this season), but his numbers fall away after Club Brugge. For a cheap third forward, Maximilian Beier (6.0m, BVB) (4.3 → 4.4 → 3.6, 12.3 over three, 1% owned) rides the same [A]BOD → [A]SFK → [H]BET program as Guirassy and has the best three-round total of any forward at 6.0m or less.
Compare every forward on the UCL Fantasy player picks table, and check the UCL Fantasy predicted lineups before the deadline.
Best captain picks for Matchday 2
Lamine Yamal is the captain for Matchday 2 at 8.9, the highest projection in the game. Barcelona's trip to Galatasaray carries a 74% win probability and 3.11 expected goals. Michael Olise (8.1) is the best captain outside Barcelona, with Bayern's 3.78 expected goals at Viking, and Luis Diaz (7.5) and Bukayo Saka (7.1) are the next two options.
Plan the next two armbands too. Kylian Mbappé is the top attacking projection of Matchday 3 (6.0, [H]RBL), just ahead of Haaland (5.8, [H]AEK), and Yamal is back on top in Matchday 4 (6.8, [H]AVL). Owning Yamal plus Mbappé covers all three captain choices without a transfer.
Who to sell before Matchday 2
Raphinha (9.5m, BAR) is the clearest sale. He is out until 26 October and projects zero in both Matchday 2 and Matchday 3, then 3.4 on his return at home to Aston Villa ([A]GAL → [A]PSG → [H]AVL). Why now: holding him costs two straight blank matchdays, and 9.5m moves straight into Saka (17.0 over three) or Bruno Fernandes (15.6). 36% of managers still own him.
Dominik Szoboszlai (7.0m, LIV) and Alexander Isak (7.5m, LIV) are the Liverpool sales. Szoboszlai is listed back from 14 October but projects 1.6 → 2.8 → 3.2, 7.6 over three; Isak is out until 17 October and projects 0.0 → 2.2 → 2.4, 4.6 over three on [A]LAS → [H]VIL → [A]FB. Why now: neither gets near a full return in the next three rounds, so holding either costs three weak weeks, while Wirtz, van Dijk and Alisson give you the same Liverpool program with players who are fit.
Riccardo Calafiori (4.5m, ARS) is the defender to move. 29% own him, and he scores 5.5 → 2.9 → 3.6, 12.0 over three on Arsenal's [H]LIL → [A]FCB → [A]SLP. Lille at home is a good week, and 5.5 is a fine return, so this is not about the Matchday 2 fixture. Why now: Altimira costs 0.5m less, scores 4.4 more over the same window, and his best week is Matchday 3, so the swap has to be in before it.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (10.0m, PSG) is the sideways move: 5.0 → 5.2 → 4.8, 15.0 over three on PSG's [A]MCI → [H]BAR → [A]VIL, against 17.0 for Saka at 1.5m less. The City away game is not a disaster, but most of the gain sits in this round: Saka out-scores him by 2.1 in Matchday 2 and the two are level after that, so the swap is worth making now or not at all.
Yann Sommer (4.5m, CLB) is the goalkeeper to move now. Club Brugge go to Inter in Matchday 2 with a 6% clean-sheet chance, and the run behind it ([A]INT → [H]RCL → [A]PSV) barely improves: 2.6 → 3.4 → 3.0, 9.0 over three. Why now: this week is the worst of the three, and Josep Martinez sits in the same price band with 11.8. Fermin Lopez (7.0m, BAR) (3.5 → 2.5 → 2.9, 8.9 over three on [A]GAL → [A]PSG → [H]AVL) is the lower-priority Barcelona sale: Nico Paz costs the same and scores 6.9 more over three. If your transfers this week go on the injured players, you can wait a round on this one, but make it before the PSG away game.
Hold for Matchday 2, sell after
Harry Kane (6.8 → 4.2 → 4.2, 15.2 over three) is not a sale this week. Viking away is the best fixture on the slate. After that Bayern face Arsenal and Atletico, and Haaland peaks in Matchday 3 at the same 11.0m, so Kane to Haaland is the move to weigh after Matchday 2. Olise (8.1 → 5.1 → 4.8) stays a hold even after the dip: his three-round total is still second among midfielders. You can wait a round on both.
Best Limitless team for Matchday 2
If you play Limitless this week, the three-per-club cap still shapes the squad. Built from the top of the Matchday 2 projections, the best 3-5-2 holds three Bayern players, three from Arsenal and one each from Barcelona, Inter, RB Leipzig, Liverpool and Stuttgart, for 72.5 projected points before the captain:
- GK: David Raya (ARS) - 4.5
- DEF: Gabriel (ARS) - 5.8
- DEF: Federico Dimarco (INT) - 5.7
- DEF: David Raum (RBL) - 5.6
- MID: Lamine Yamal (BAR) - 8.9
- MID: Michael Olise (FCB) - 8.1
- MID: Luis Diaz (FCB) - 7.5
- MID: Bukayo Saka (ARS) - 7.1
- MID: Florian Wirtz (LIV) - 6.1
- FWD: Harry Kane (FCB) - 6.8
- FWD: Deniz Undav (STU) - 6.4
Captain Yamal. Alphonso Davies (6.4) misses out only because Bayern's three slots are already taken by higher scorers, and Lautaro Martinez (5.8) is the next forward if you prefer Inter over Stuttgart. The exact optimum, with bench, is solved live on the UCL Fantasy optimal teams page.
Matchday 2 transfer summary
- Buy: Bukayo Saka, Serhou Guirassy, Florian Wirtz, Sergi Altimira, Nico Paz, Patrick Berg, Josep Martinez.
- Sell: Raphinha, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak, Riccardo Calafiori and Yann Sommer; Kvaratskhelia to Saka as a sideways swap.
- Wait a round: Kane to Haaland after Matchday 2; Fermin Lopez out before Matchday 3.
More UCL analysis in our UCL Fantasy preview hub and the UCL Fantasy all-in-one guide.
FAQ
Who should I captain in UCL Fantasy Matchday 2?
Lamine Yamal, with 8.9 projected points at Galatasaray, the highest in the game. Michael Olise (8.1, at Viking) and Luis Diaz (7.5) are the alternatives.
Should I sell Raphinha before UCL Fantasy Matchday 2?
Yes. He is out until 26 October and projects zero for Matchday 2 and Matchday 3. Bukayo Saka (17.0 over the next three matchdays) and Bruno Fernandes (15.6) are the cleanest replacements at a lower price.
Which budget defenders are best for UCL Fantasy Matchday 2?
Sergi Altimira (4.0m, Sporting) has the highest three-matchday total of any defender at 16.4. Federico Dimarco (5.0m, Inter) adds 13.7 over three, with two home games first.
Best differentials for UCL Fantasy Matchday 2?
Sergi Altimira, Florian Wirtz, Patrick Berg, Florian Thauvin and Anis Hadj Moussa are all owned by 2% or fewer managers, and Josep Martinez (2%) has the best three-matchday total of any goalkeeper.
Is Erling Haaland worth buying for UCL Fantasy Matchday 2?
Not this week. He projects 5.0 against PSG, and his peak is Matchday 3 at home to AEK (5.8), so bring him in after Matchday 2. Serhou Guirassy (15.4 over three) is the forward to buy now.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.