FPL Predictions 2026/27: Predicted Points, Captain Picks & Best Players
Fantasy Premier League is decided by the same question every week: which players score the most points next. TheFantasyTool answers it with a number instead of an opinion - a predicted-points (pP) figure for every player in the game, built from expected goals, expected assists, projected minutes and clean-sheet probability taken from live match odds, then converted into FPL's own scoring system so a 4.0m defender and a 15.0m striker sit on one comparable scale.
Everything on this page is model output, not punditry. It refreshes through the day as odds move, team news lands and line-ups are confirmed, so the captain pick you see on Friday is not the one frozen on Monday. Use it to choose a captain, find differentials nobody owns yet, time your chips and avoid benching a player who was never going to start.
Highest predicted points in Fantasy Premier League 2026/2027 right now, for Round 3.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | pP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | FWD | 15.5 | 9.0 |
| 2 | Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | MID | 12.0 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Dominik Szoboszlai | Liverpool | MID | 7.0 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | MID | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Josko Gvardiol | Manchester City | DEF | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Thiago Rodrigues | Brentford | FWD | 8.0 | 4.8 |
| 7 | Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | MID | 9.5 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Nathan Collins | Brentford | DEF | 5.5 | 4.7 |
| 9 | Alexander Isak | Liverpool | FWD | 9.0 | 4.7 |
| 10 | Gabriel | Arsenal | DEF | 8.0 | 4.5 |
Top 10 of the full pool — the complete ranking, with projected minutes, ownership and fixture difficulty, is on the player picks page.
Projections last updated 2026-08-31 14:35:58 UTC.
How our FPL predictions work
Ranking players by last week's points tells you what already happened. We project what happens next, from the underlying numbers that actually drive FPL returns - and every value on the site comes from one model run, so a player's projected minutes and his predicted points can never disagree with each other.
- Expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) per player, per fixture
- Projected minutes (pMins) with rotation and injury risk priced in
- Clean-sheet probability derived from live bookmaker odds, not last season's form
- Penalty and set-piece responsibility, tracked per team
- Fixture difficulty from current match odds, refreshed every day
FPL captaincy: pick the armband on expected points
The captain is the single biggest weekly decision in FPL - it doubles one player's score, so getting it right is worth more than most transfers. The mistake is captaining reputation: the best armband is the highest predicted-points player for that gameweek, which is often a premium with a soft home fixture but is regularly a mid-priced attacker nobody expects.
Our player picks page ranks every player by pP for the upcoming gameweek, so the captain shortlist is the top of the table. Where you have a genuine choice, weigh floor against ceiling: a nailed penalty taker against a bottom-half defence is a high-floor captain, while a rotation-risk winger with a huge attacking projection is a ceiling punt best saved for when you are chasing a mini-league.
- Captain the highest pP player of the gameweek, not the biggest name
- Double gameweeks change the maths completely - two fixtures, two chances to return
- Triple Captain belongs on a premium in a double gameweek, not on a one-off hunch
- Check projected minutes before you commit: a 60-minute captain wastes the multiplier
FPL chip strategy
FPL gives you four chips - Wildcard, Free Hit, Bench Boost and Triple Captain - and the value of each depends entirely on when you play it. A Bench Boost in a blank gameweek is worth almost nothing; the same chip in a double gameweek with fifteen playing players is worth thirty-plus points. The whole game is timing, and timing needs a schedule and a projection, not a gut feeling.
Our chip strategy planner and draft planner model the actual expected points of each plan round by round, including which chip to play when, so you can compare a Wildcard now against a Wildcard in three gameweeks before you burn it. Current-season chip allocations and deadlines are read live from the game itself on the planner.
- Wildcard: rebuild the squad with unlimited free transfers - best before a fixture swing
- Free Hit: one gameweek of unlimited transfers, squad reverts after - built for blanks
- Bench Boost: all 15 players score - only worth it when all 15 actually play
- Triple Captain: the armband pays 3x instead of 2x - premium, double gameweek, nailed minutes
FPL rules, squad and budget
You pick a 15-player squad inside a 100.0m budget: two goalkeepers, five defenders, five midfielders and three forwards, with a maximum of three players from any single club. Eleven of them start each gameweek in a legal formation, four sit on the bench in the order you set, and your captain scores double.
You get one free transfer per gameweek and every extra transfer costs 4 points. Unused free transfers roll over. Deadlines are 90 minutes before the first kick-off of each gameweek, and the season runs to 38 gameweeks - our calendar page carries every deadline for every game we cover, so you can plan a whole month of transfers in one sitting.
- Squad: 2 GK, 5 DEF, 5 MID, 3 FWD - 15 players, 100.0m budget
- Maximum 3 players from any one Premier League club
- 1 free transfer per gameweek, -4 points for each extra, unused transfers roll over
- Captain scores double; the vice-captain takes over only if the captain does not play
- 38 gameweeks, deadline 90 minutes before the first kick-off
Finding FPL differentials
A differential is a player with a high projection and low ownership - the only kind of pick that gains ground on the people above you in a mini-league. Ranking by predicted points and reading ownership alongside it is how you find them before the bandwagon, rather than after everybody has already transferred him in and the price has risen.
The same logic works in reverse: a heavily-owned player with a weak projection is a differential in the other direction, and selling him is a free roll if you are confident in the numbers. Our player data page carries ownership beside pP for exactly this comparison.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are FPL predicted points?
Predicted points are a projection of the most likely outcome, not a promise - football is high variance and any single gameweek can go against the numbers. Over a season, though, ranking by predicted points beats ranking by past points, because it prices in fixtures, minutes and underlying performance rather than results that have already happened. Our model performance page shows how our projections have tracked actual scores.
Who should I captain in FPL this gameweek?
Captain the player with the highest predicted points for the gameweek, then sanity-check his projected minutes and fixture. Our player picks page ranks every FPL player by predicted points for the upcoming gameweek, so the captain shortlist is simply the top of that table - and it updates as team news lands, which is when most captaincy decisions actually change.
When should I use my FPL wildcard?
Play the Wildcard when your squad is misaligned with the upcoming fixtures rather than when you have taken a bad week - usually into a clear fixture swing, or ahead of a blank or double gameweek where you need many players from specific clubs. The draft planner compares the expected points of playing it now against playing it later, round by round, so you can see the cost of waiting.
Are your FPL predictions free?
The top of every predicted-points ranking, predicted line-ups, fixture difficulty and all our guides are free. Full access - the complete player pool, the optimal team calculator, the transfer solver and the draft planner - is a paid subscription with a 7-day free trial that requires a credit card; cancel inside the seven days and you pay nothing.
How do I find FPL differentials?
Sort by predicted points and read ownership next to it: a player projected near the top of his position with low ownership is a differential. The player data page carries both columns, so you can filter for high projection and low ownership directly instead of guessing which picks are under the radar.
What is pP and how is it different from FPL's own points?
pP is our predicted-points figure - what we expect a player to score in an upcoming gameweek. FPL's points are what a player has already scored. The two are related but answer different questions, and only one of them helps you pick a team. The full method is in our guide to predicted points.