FPL Gameweek 7 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and who to sell
FPL Gameweek 7 is a clean round. All 20 Premier League clubs play once, and nobody blanks or doubles between Gameweek 7 and Gameweek 9. That turns this into a transfer week about runs, not one-off fixtures. Manchester City host Ipswich at the start of the best attacking program in the game. Brighton have one very good home game before trips to Liverpool and Manchester City. And the most-owned forward after Haaland is projected for only 45 minutes. Below are the next-three programs, the best buys by position, captaincy for Gameweek 7 and the two weeks after it, who to sell and why now, and the optimal Free Hit team. All figures are TheFantasyTool model projections in expected FPL points, pulled on 12 October. The full table is on the FPL player picks page.
If you missed last week, the FPL Gameweek 6 preview covers how we got here. This one looks forward to Gameweek 9 and, where it matters, beyond.
FPL Gameweek 7 to 9 programs: whose next three are worth owning
Manchester City's [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA is the best three-Gameweek run in the game at 6.79 expected goals, and Gameweek 7 is its peak: 2.75 expected goals and a 77% win probability at home to Ipswich. Villa away is the week to plan around, not to avoid. City still project 1.94 goals there, and the Brighton home game after it is back up at 2.11.
Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV carries the most expected clean sheets of any club, 1.27 across the three. The Everton home game in Gameweek 8 (52% clean sheet chance) is the best single defensive fixture any club has in the window, and the trip to Liverpool is the only week to plan around. Chelsea ([A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN, 5.20 xG) get two home games in a row after Goodison. Brentford's [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO starts with its hardest game, 1.52 expected goals against Liverpool, then rises to 1.92 at Hull.
| Team | GW7 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program GW7-9 | 3-GW xG | 3-GW CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI | [H]IPS | 77% | 2.75 | 44% | [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA | 6.79 | 1.03 |
| ARS | [A]NFO | 60% | 1.86 | 42% | [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV | 5.25 | 1.27 |
| CHE | [A]EVE | 44% | 1.66 | 27% | [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN | 5.20 | 0.77 |
| BRE | [H]LIV | 35% | 1.52 | 19% | [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO | 5.05 | 0.88 |
| TOT | [H]COV | 65% | 2.18 | 38% | [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY | 4.97 | 0.87 |
| MUN | [A]LEE | 35% | 1.46 | 21% | [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE | 4.88 | 0.64 |
| NEW | [H]AVL | 44% | 1.68 | 26% | [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE | 4.71 | 0.77 |
| BHA | [H]CRY | 61% | 2.12 | 35% | [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI | 4.69 | 0.63 |
| FUL | [H]HUL | 57% | 1.87 | 37% | [H]HUL → [A]COV → [A]AVL | 4.57 | 0.87 |
| LIV | [A]BRE | 40% | 1.64 | 22% | [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS | 4.56 | 0.71 |
Top 10 by 3-Gameweek expected goals. 3-GW CS is expected clean sheets across the three games, a count rather than a percentage. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window.
The sell-into program is Brighton's [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI. Gameweek 7 is genuinely good: a 61% win probability and a 35% clean sheet chance at home to Crystal Palace. Then it turns, with a 16% clean sheet chance at Anfield and 12% at the Etihad. Tottenham's [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY has the same shape with a softer finish. At the bottom, Hull ([A]FUL → [H]BRE → [H]IPS, 3.22 xG) and Everton ([H]CHE → [A]ARS → [A]NEW, 3.23 xG) have the two weakest attacking runs. Crystal Palace ([A]BHA → [H]NEW → [A]TOT) project only 0.56 expected clean sheets, among the three lowest in the game. Every club's run is on the FPL fixture schedule.
Best FPL Gameweek 7 goalkeepers
David Raya (6.1m, ARS) is the top keeper over the next three at 12.8, with a trajectory of 4.2 → 4.6 → 4.0 behind Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV. 43.7% of managers already own him, and nothing in the run is a reason to move. The Liverpool trip in Gameweek 9 is his weakest week.
The better buy for anyone without an Arsenal keeper is Caoimhin Kelleher (5.0m, BRE). His [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO run projects 12.0, second only to Raya, and only 6.1% of managers have him. Gameweek 7 is his worst week (3.5 at home to Liverpool) and he climbs to 4.4 at Hull, so bring him in now rather than chase the points after they arrive.
The cheap option is Bernd Leno (4.5m, FUL): joint-top keeper for Gameweek 7 at 4.2 with a 37% clean sheet chance against Hull, and 11.6 over Fulham's [H]HUL → [A]COV → [A]AVL. His points fall after this week, so treat him as a stopgap or bench keeper rather than a long hold. Antonin Kinsky (4.5m, TOT) (4.1 → 3.3 → 3.9, [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY) is the alternative at the same price, held up by a 65% win probability at home to Coventry.
Best FPL Gameweek 7 defenders
Josko Gvardiol (5.8m, MCI) leads every defender over the next three at 13.4 (5.1 → 4.1 → 4.2), on City's [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA. He projects 89 minutes against Ipswich and carries 0.14 expected goals, a goal threat most defenders cannot match, which is why his Villa week (4.1) holds up. 27.6% own him; at his price he is the defender to build around.
At Brighton the horizon and the round disagree. Maxim De Cuyper (5.0m, BHA) is the highest-scoring defender of Gameweek 7 at 5.6, but Brighton's [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI drops him to 3.1 and then 2.5. Luka Vuskovic (5.0m, BHA) (5.1 → 3.7 → 3.0) is the better hold: slightly lower this week, and back to 4.1 and 4.7 in Gameweeks 10 and 11 ([H]BRE → [A]HUL). If you are buying one Brighton defender to keep, buy Vuskovic.
Nordi Mukiele (5.4m, SUN) is the rising differential. Sunderland's [A]BOU → [H]LEE → [A]COV takes him from 3.4 to 4.2 and 3.9, one of the few defenders whose points climb after this week, and only 1.8% own him. The buy has to be in before the Leeds game, not during it. Adrien Truffert (5.4m, BOU) (2.9% owned) is the Bournemouth version: 4.4 → 2.9 → 4.0 on [H]SUN → [A]MUN → [H]LEE, with the Manchester United trip in the middle.
For a cheap fifth defender, Bobby Thomas (4.0m, COV) does the job: 3.0 → 3.4 → 3.6 on Coventry's [A]TOT → [H]FUL → [H]SUN, rising every week, with 83 projected minutes. Leeds' Tarik Muharemovic (5.0m, LEE) ([H]MUN → [A]SUN → [A]BOU, 3.7 → 4.1 → 3.4) is the 5.0m version.
Premium Arsenal defence is a price question. Gabriel (7.9m, ARS) projects 11.3 over the three ([A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV), behind Gvardiol at a much higher price. Raya is the cheaper way into the same 1.27 expected clean sheets.
Best FPL Gameweek 7 midfielders
Bruno Fernandes (11.9m, MUN) has the highest three-Gameweek total of any player in the game: 17.5 (5.2 → 6.5 → 5.8). Manchester United's [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE puts the Bournemouth home game in the middle, and his 6.5 there is the best single-Gameweek projection anywhere in Gameweek 8. He takes penalties and projects 78 minutes. 36.7% own him. If you do not, this is the week to fix it: the run peaks in Gameweek 8, so buying after this round means buying after the peak.
Cole Palmer (9.7m, CHE) is the other premium with a flat, reliable run: 5.2 → 5.2 → 4.8 on Chelsea's [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN. He takes penalties, and two home games follow Goodison. Bukayo Saka (9.6m, ARS) (4.7 → 4.7 → 3.9) is a step behind at 13.3 on Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV, and the Liverpool trip in Gameweek 9 is his weakest week.
The mid-price picks are where Gameweek 7 is decided. Harvey Barnes (6.1m, NEW) (8.2% owned) projects 4.8 → 4.2 → 4.2 on Newcastle's [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE with 84 projected minutes, more than Morgan Rogers (12.5) for less money. Marcus Tavernier (6.1m, BOU) (7.3% owned) has 4.9 → 3.6 → 4.1 on [H]SUN → [A]MUN → [H]LEE, with the Manchester United trip as the dip, not the end.
The value pick of the round is Diego Gomez (5.0m, BHA) on Brighton's [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI. He is the joint-highest-scoring midfielder of Gameweek 7 at 5.2, and at 3.6% owned almost nobody has him. The two away trips that follow cap his three-Gameweek total at 12.4, so he is a one-Gameweek buy unless you are happy to hold through two away trips. He returns to 3.8 and 4.2 when [H]BRE → [A]HUL arrives in Gameweeks 10 and 11. For a budget midfielder you can leave alone, Enzo Le Fee (5.7m, SUN) is the steadier option: 4.1 → 4.0 → 4.1 on [A]BOU → [H]LEE → [A]COV, flat all the way. Leeds' Anton Stach (6.0m, LEE) ([H]MUN → [A]SUN → [A]BOU, 4.4 → 3.9 → 3.9) sits in the same bracket.
The deep differential is James Garner (6.0m, EVE) at 0.2% owned: 4.1 → 3.3 → 4.0 on Everton's [H]CHE → [A]ARS → [A]NEW, then 4.2 in Gameweek 10. The Everton attack is the reason to be careful (3.23 xG over the three, among the lowest), but his own projection stays around 4 points every week except the Arsenal trip. That is the definition of a hold.
| Player | Price | Owned | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | 3-GW total | Program |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | 11.9m | 36.7% | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 17.5 | [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE |
| Cole Palmer | 9.7m | 24.6% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 15.2 | [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN |
| Harvey Barnes | 6.1m | 8.2% | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 13.2 | [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE |
| Marcus Tavernier | 6.1m | 7.3% | 4.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 12.6 | [H]SUN → [A]MUN → [H]LEE |
| Diego Gomez | 5.0m | 3.6% | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 12.4 | [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI |
| Enzo Le Fee | 5.7m | 3.2% | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 12.2 | [A]BOU → [H]LEE → [A]COV |
| James Garner | 6.0m | 0.2% | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 11.4 | [H]CHE → [A]ARS → [A]NEW |
Best FPL Gameweek 7 forwards
Erling Haaland (15.6m, MCI) needs no sales pitch at 74.6% owned, and City's [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA is the best attacking run in the game. His 6.4 is the highest Gameweek 7 projection of any player, built on 0.91 expected goals against Ipswich, and his run (6.4 → 4.9 → 5.1) stays strong. The point of this section is the spots after him.
Thiago Rodrigues (7.8m, BRE) is the forward to buy. He projects 14.3 over the next three (4.5 → 5.3 → 4.5), second only to Haaland among forwards, on Brentford's [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO. He takes penalties, carries 0.46 expected goals even against Liverpool, and only 9.4% own him. The Hull trip in Gameweek 8 is the best week of the run, so he needs to be in before it.
Below him it gets close. Yoane Wissa (6.3m, NEW) (4.2 → 3.7 → 3.7, 19.0% owned) is the steady mid-price option on [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE, level over the three with Kostoulas. Charalampos Kostoulas (5.6m, BHA) ([H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI) is the cheaper Brighton option. Gameweek 7 is his best week by a distance at 5.0, then 3.4, which makes him a one-Gameweek pick to sell again before Anfield. For a Fulham attacker, Gonzalo Garcia (6.1m, FUL) ([H]HUL → [A]COV → [A]AVL) projects 4.5 against Hull and fades with the run.
Who to captain in FPL Gameweek 7
The captain scores double. Erling Haaland (15.6m, MCI) is the pick, and among attackers it is not close: 6.4 projected, 0.91 expected goals, and a 77% win probability for City at home to Ipswich. Doubled, that is 12.8, and [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA keeps him a captain option in every week of the run.
Bruno Fernandes at 5.2 (Leeds away) and Cole Palmer at 5.2 (Everton away) are the alternatives, level with each other and well behind Haaland. De Cuyper projects 5.6, but a defender's ceiling depends on a clean sheet, and Brighton's chance of one is 35%.
Captaincy is a plan, not a pick. In Gameweek 8 the order flips: Bruno projects 6.5 at home to Bournemouth against Haaland's 4.9 at Villa. Gameweek 9 has Bruno at 5.8 and Haaland at 5.1. Owning both keeps a strong captain available in each of the next three weeks.
Who to sell before FPL Gameweek 7
Joao Pedro (7.7m, CHE) is the clearest move this week, and the problem is minutes, not the fixture. 67.5% of managers own him, Chelsea's [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN is a decent run (5.20 xG), and Everton away is a fair game. But he projects only 45 minutes there, and his run reads 3.4 → 3.3 → 4.2. Thiago Rodrigues costs 0.1m more and projects 14.3 over the same three weeks. Why now: Thiago's best week is Gameweek 8, so the swap has to happen before it, not after.
Riccardo Calafiori (5.9m, ARS) is owned by 51.7% of managers, and Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV is the best defensive run in the game. He is still a sell. He projects 61 minutes in Gameweek 7, and his run (2.6 → 3.0 → 2.1) is well below what his club's 1.27 expected clean sheets should be worth. Gvardiol costs 0.1m less and projects 13.4 over the same three. Why now: Gvardiol's best week is this one, at home to Ipswich. Raya keeps you on the Arsenal clean sheets.
Alexander Isak (9.0m, LIV) (16.0% owned) projects zero for Gameweek 7, then 2.1 and 1.7 on Liverpool's [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS. Why now: selling him frees money for Bruno or Thiago before their best weeks, and a forward coming back at that level is not worth a squad spot while he builds up. Cody Gakpo (7.2m, LIV) (8.9% owned) is in the same position on the same [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS run: zero this week, then 3.2.
Hold, then sell, on Brighton's [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI: Maxim De Cuyper (5.0m, BHA) (32.5% owned) and Pascal Gross (6.0m, BHA) (36.9% owned). Gameweek 7 is a good week for both (5.6 and 5.0 against Crystal Palace), so do not use this week's transfer on them. You can wait a round. The case for moving them comes before Gameweek 8, when the Anfield and Etihad trips drop De Cuyper to 3.1 and then 2.5.
Best Free Hit team for FPL Gameweek 7
Gameweek 7 has no blanks or doubles, so a Free Hit here is only worth it if your squad is badly out of shape. If you do play it, this is the squad that maximises Gameweek 7 projected points within the 3-per-club limit and the solver's spending ceiling. It plays a 3-5-2 with Haaland as captain, for 62.9 projected points including the captain double. The live, always-current version is on the optimal FPL teams page.
| Role | Player | Club | Price | GW7 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Bernd Leno | FUL | 4.5m | 4.2 |
| DEF | Maxim De Cuyper | BHA | 5.0m | 5.6 |
| DEF | Josko Gvardiol | MCI | 5.8m | 5.1 |
| DEF | Luka Vuskovic | BHA | 5.0m | 5.1 |
| MID | Cole Palmer | CHE | 9.7m | 5.2 |
| MID | Bruno Fernandes | MUN | 11.9m | 5.2 |
| MID | Diego Gomez | BHA | 5.0m | 5.2 |
| MID | Rayan Cherki | MCI | 7.8m | 5.1 |
| MID | Marcus Tavernier | BOU | 6.1m | 4.9 |
| FWD (C) | Erling Haaland | MCI | 15.6m | 6.4 |
| FWD | Gonzalo Garcia | FUL | 6.1m | 4.5 |
| Bench GK | Antonin Kinsky | TOT | 4.5m | 4.1 |
| Bench DEF | David Affengruber | FUL | 4.5m | 4.1 |
| Bench DEF | Bobby Thomas | COV | 4.0m | 3.0 |
| Bench FWD | Sindre Walle Egeli | IPS | 4.5m | 0.4 |
Three Brighton and three Manchester City players fill both club limits, which is the one-Gameweek version of the Brighton sell-into case above. Bruno and Palmer carry the midfield, and the bench is kept cheap, because a Free Hit bench rarely plays.
FPL Gameweek 7 transfer summary
- Buy: Bruno Fernandes before his Gameweek 8 peak, Thiago Rodrigues for Brentford's [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO, and Gvardiol on City's [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA.
- Value and differentials: Harvey Barnes, Nordi Mukiele, Caoimhin Kelleher, James Garner.
- Gameweek 7 only: Diego Gomez, Kostoulas and Bernd Leno.
- Sell: Joao Pedro, Calafiori, Isak, Gakpo. Hold one more week: De Cuyper and Gross.
- Captain: Haaland, with Bruno as the Gameweek 8 captain.
Before the deadline, check the predicted FPL lineups for late team news, compare the bookmaker view on the FPL market probabilities page, and see every projection on the FPL player picks page. All our Fantasy Premier League previews are in the FPL preview hub, and the FPL strategy guide covers the season-long approach.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 7?
Erling Haaland. He projects 6.4 points at home to Ipswich, the highest of any player in Gameweek 7, with Manchester City at a 77% win probability. Bruno Fernandes (5.2) and Cole Palmer (5.2) are the alternatives, and Bruno becomes the stronger captain in Gameweek 8.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before Gameweek 7?
Yes, if you have the transfer. He projects 45 minutes and 3.4 points against Everton, and 10.9 over Gameweeks 7 to 9. Thiago Rodrigues costs 0.1m more and projects 14.3 over the same three, with his best week in Gameweek 8.
Which budget defenders are best for FPL Gameweek 7?
Bobby Thomas (4.0m, Coventry) rises from 3.0 to 3.6 over the next three on [A]TOT → [H]FUL → [H]SUN. Luka Vuskovic (5.0m, Brighton) projects 5.1 in Gameweek 7 and is the Brighton defender to hold. Tarik Muharemovic (5.0m, Leeds) projects 11.2 over the three.
Best FPL differentials for Gameweek 7?
Diego Gomez (3.6% owned) is the joint-highest-scoring midfielder of the round at 5.2. Harvey Barnes (8.2% owned) projects 13.2 over three Gameweeks, Caoimhin Kelleher (6.1% owned) is the second-best keeper over the run, and James Garner (0.2% owned) is the deep pick at 11.4.
Should I use my Free Hit in FPL Gameweek 7?
Usually not. Every club plays once in Gameweek 7, so there is no blank or double to exploit. The optimal Free Hit squad projects 62.9 points including the captain double; play it only if your own team is far short of that.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.