FPL Gameweek 6 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 6 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
FPL Gameweek 6 comes straight out of the international break with its deadline on Saturday 10 October, and the transfer you make this week should be decided by the three Gameweeks behind it, not just by the one in front. Every club plays once. Arsenal own the best defensive run in the game by a distance, Manchester United and Chelsea have the best attacking threes for their midfielders, and Manchester City open the window with the hardest fixture of the week, Liverpool - Manchester City, before the best single captaincy spot of the window at home to Ipswich. Bruno Fernandes is the top scorer in the game over the next three Gameweeks, Bukayo Saka has taken over as this week's top projection, and the big change since the break is on the treatment table: Cole Palmer, Declan Rice and Ezri Konsa are all projected for zero minutes this week. Every number sits on our FPL player picks page, and every projection below comes from the latest model run.
The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning
Ranked on expected goals across Gameweeks 6-8, Manchester City top the table at 6.28 xG with [A]LIV → [H]IPS → [A]AVL. The Liverpool trip is the week to plan around, not a reason to avoid them; Ipswich at home in Gameweek 7 is where the run pays off. Arsenal's [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE is the program for defenders: 1.44 expected clean sheets from three games, almost half a clean sheet more than anyone else, and a 50% clean-sheet chance against Leeds this week, the best of any club. Manchester United ([H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU) and Chelsea ([H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT) both clear 5.3 xG over the three and face no top side away from home.
Fulham are the run most managers are not looking at. [A]IPS → [H]HUL → [A]COV carries 0.92 expected clean sheets, third best in the game, with prices well below the big clubs. Brentford are the quieter attacking run at 4.91 xG over [A]AVL → [H]LIV → [A]HUL, sixth in the table. Everton have the second-best clean-sheet chance of the week at Hull (33%), but [H]CHE → [A]ARS follows, so their players are one-week picks. At the bottom, Hull ([H]EVE → [A]FUL → [H]BRE), Ipswich ([H]FUL → [A]MCI → [H]NFO) and Leeds ([A]ARS → [H]MUN → [A]SUN) have the three weakest attacking runs, all at 3.43 xG or below. Kick-off times are on the FPL schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind every fixture are on our FPL market probabilities page.
| Team | GW6 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW6-8) | 3-GW xG | 3-GW CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI | [A]LIV | 39% | 1.61 | 22% | [A]LIV → [H]IPS → [A]AVL | 6.28 | 0.96 |
| ARS | [H]LEE | 69% | 2.06 | 50% | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE | 5.83 | 1.44 |
| MUN | [H]TOT | 56% | 2.06 | 29% | [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU | 5.56 | 0.79 |
| CHE | [H]BOU | 57% | 2.07 | 30% | [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT | 5.39 | 0.84 |
| LIV | [H]MCI | 36% | 1.54 | 20% | [H]MCI → [A]BRE → [H]BHA | 5.02 | 0.69 |
| BRE | [A]AVL | 37% | 1.48 | 23% | [A]AVL → [H]LIV → [A]HUL | 4.91 | 0.80 |
| NEW | [A]COV | 46% | 1.70 | 28% | [A]COV → [H]AVL → [A]CRY | 4.86 | 0.76 |
| BHA | [A]SUN | 41% | 1.49 | 28% | [A]SUN → [H]CRY → [A]LIV | 4.85 | 0.78 |
| FUL | [A]IPS | 39% | 1.49 | 25% | [A]IPS → [H]HUL → [A]COV | 4.85 | 0.92 |
| TOT | [A]MUN | 22% | 1.24 | 13% | [A]MUN → [H]COV → [A]CHE | 4.63 | 0.68 |
| BOU | [A]CHE | 21% | 1.20 | 13% | [A]CHE → [H]SUN → [A]MUN | 4.15 | 0.58 |
| AVL | [H]BRE | 36% | 1.46 | 23% | [H]BRE → [A]NEW → [H]MCI | 4.02 | 0.55 |
| CRY | [H]NFO | 35% | 1.34 | 25% | [H]NFO → [A]BHA → [H]NEW | 3.93 | 0.62 |
| NFO | [A]CRY | 37% | 1.37 | 26% | [A]CRY → [H]ARS → [A]IPS | 3.74 | 0.73 |
| SUN | [H]BHA | 32% | 1.28 | 23% | [H]BHA → [A]BOU → [H]LEE | 3.73 | 0.70 |
| EVE | [A]HUL | 47% | 1.54 | 33% | [A]HUL → [H]CHE → [A]ARS | 3.64 | 0.69 |
| COV | [H]NEW | 28% | 1.28 | 18% | [H]NEW → [A]TOT → [H]FUL | 3.48 | 0.52 |
| LEE | [A]ARS | 11% | 0.68 | 13% | [A]ARS → [H]MUN → [A]SUN | 3.43 | 0.61 |
| IPS | [H]FUL | 34% | 1.37 | 23% | [H]FUL → [A]MCI → [H]NFO | 3.35 | 0.51 |
| HUL | [H]EVE | 26% | 1.10 | 21% | [H]EVE → [A]FUL → [H]BRE | 3.06 | 0.51 |
Looking past Gameweek 8, City keep going with [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL, while United turn harder with [A]CHE → [H]AVL → [A]LIV and Fulham with [A]AVL → [H]NEW → [A]MCI. That is worth knowing now: the United and Fulham picks below are strongest over the next three, and Gameweek 9 is the natural point to review them. Chelsea go on to [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE, so their attackers hold up for longer.
Best FPL Gameweek 6 goalkeepers
David Raya (6.1m, ARS) is the goalkeeper to own with [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE. His projection runs 4.4 → 4.3 → 4.6, 13.3 points over three and 2.0 clear of every other keeper, and he goes on to 5.1 at home to Hull in Gameweek 10. At 42.8% ownership he protects rank more than he gains it, but nobody in the position comes close.
The value pick is Bernd Leno (4.5m, FUL) at [A]IPS → [H]HUL → [A]COV: 3.5 → 4.0 → 3.8 for 11.3, joint second among keepers over the window, owned by 3.6%. Caoimhin Kelleher (5.0m, BRE) matches him on 11.3 with a back-loaded 3.6 → 3.5 → 4.2 over [A]AVL → [H]LIV → [A]HUL, and he keeps going at 4.1 against Forest in Gameweek 9. Emiliano Martinez (5.0m, CHE) is the steady Chelsea route at 3.7 → 3.5 → 3.9 over [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT. Gianluigi Donnarumma projects only 3.1 at Anfield before 4.1 against Ipswich, so he is a Gameweek 7 buy rather than a Gameweek 6 one. Jordan Pickford is second among keepers this week at 3.8 at Hull, but falls to 3.4 and 3.0 for Chelsea and Arsenal. If you own Martin Dubravka (17.0%), our FPL predicted lineups still have Antonin Kinsky in the Spurs goal, and Dubravka projects nothing across the window.
Best FPL Gameweek 6 defenders
Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) is the premium defender: 5.6 → 4.5 → 4.8 over [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE, 14.9 points and first in the position by 2.4. His 5.6 this week is the highest projection of any defender, and he is back at 5.1 at home to Hull in Gameweek 10.
The best cheap defender is now Jannik Schuster (4.5m, BRE): 4.5 → 3.8 → 4.2 over [A]AVL → [H]LIV → [A]HUL, 12.5 points, second in the position over three and owned by 0.4%. He is on 88 predicted minutes this week, and after the Liverpool game the Hull trip in Gameweek 8 lifts him back to 4.2. David Affengruber (4.5m, FUL) is the other 4.5m route, 4.1 → 4.4 → 3.6 over [A]IPS → [H]HUL → [A]COV for 12.1, owned by 0.2%, and the cheap way into the Fulham clean-sheet run alongside Leno.
This is where the Gameweek 6 ranking and the three-Gameweek ranking disagree. James Tarkowski (17.5%) out-scores Luka Vuskovic (5.0m, BHA) this week, 4.9 to 4.4 at Hull, but [H]CHE → [A]ARS takes Tarkowski down to 3.5 and 3.0. Vuskovic runs 4.4 → 4.7 → 3.3 over [A]SUN → [H]CRY → [A]LIV for 12.4 against Tarkowski's 11.4, and after a dip at City in Gameweek 9 he is back at 3.8 and 4.3. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Vuskovic. Maxim De Cuyper (29.0%) is the hold from the same back line: 4.3 → 5.1 → 2.9 for 12.3, and his 5.1 against Palace is joint top among defenders for Gameweek 7.
Riccardo Calafiori (50.8%) projects 5.1 against Leeds, second among defenders this week, so play him; his 3.6 and 3.5 behind it, on 73 and 66 predicted minutes, make him a hold rather than a buy. Josko Gvardiol (27.0%) is the other one to keep: 3.2 at Anfield, then 5.1 against Ipswich and 3.8 at Villa Park, 12.1 in all. Maxence Lacroix (5.9m, CHE), 4.4 → 3.6 → 3.7, and Malick Thiaw (5.0m, NEW), 4.1 → 4.0 → 3.5, are the mid-priced alternatives at 6.7% and 2.2%. Jurrien Timber projects 4.9 against Leeds at 0.5% ownership but is on 75 predicted minutes and drops to 3.4 at Forest; he, Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite (4.6 at Hull, then 3.1 and 2.5) are Free Hit material rather than buys.
Best FPL Gameweek 6 midfielders
Bruno Fernandes (11.9m, MUN) is the best player in the game over the horizon: 6.3 → 5.1 → 5.8 over [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU, 17.2 points, 1.3 ahead of Haaland and Saka. His 5.8 is the top projection of Gameweek 8, and he is on penalties. The model has him on 1.00 expected goals and 0.83 expected assists across the three. Even after United's run turns to [A]CHE → [H]AVL → [A]LIV, he holds at 5.0 → 5.7 → 4.4, so he is a long-term hold rather than a three-week rental.
Bukayo Saka (9.6m, ARS) is the top projection of the week at 6.4 against Leeds, and [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE runs 6.4 → 4.9 → 4.6 for 15.9. He is on penalties and 84 predicted minutes this week, falling to 71 and 66 after it, and he jumps back to 5.5 against Hull in Gameweek 10. Here the two rankings disagree again: Saka edges Bruno this week by 0.1, but Bruno is 1.3 points ahead over three. If you can only own one of the two premium midfielders and plan to keep him, Bruno is the pick.
Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) rides the same United program for 4.0m less than Bruno: 5.8 → 4.7 → 4.9 over [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU, 15.4 points. Morgan Rogers (41.5%) matches him exactly on 15.4, 5.8 → 4.6 → 5.0 over [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT, so the most-owned midfielder in the game is a firm keep. Matheus Cunha (7.9m, MUN) is the less obvious way into the United run at 5.9% ownership: [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU at 5.2 → 4.1 → 4.3 for 13.6, on 80 predicted minutes this week. Owning United attackers across the next three is a stack the fixtures support, up to the three-per-club cap.
Pedro Neto (6.5m, CHE) is the hidden gem of the refresh: 5.2 → 3.9 → 4.2 over [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT, 13.3 points at 1.4% ownership. His 5.2 is the joint sixth-highest projection of anyone this week, and with Chelsea going on to [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE he holds at 3.2 → 3.7 → 3.9 after it. He is also the direct replacement for Cole Palmer, who is covered in the sell section. Harvey Barnes (6.1m, NEW) runs 4.8 → 4.5 → 3.8 over [A]COV → [H]AVL → [A]CRY for 13.1 at 6.5%. Enzo Le Fee (5.7m, SUN) projects 4.7 → 4.1 → 4.0 over [H]BHA → [A]BOU → [H]LEE, 12.8 points at 3.3%, and stays at 3.9 through Gameweek 10; his best fixture is this week, so he is a buy now rather than later. Youri Tielemans (5.8m, MUN) is the cheapest way into the United program and on penalties, [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU at 4.6 → 3.7 → 3.9 for 12.2 at 1.5%.
Marcus Tavernier (6.1m, BOU) is a Gameweek 7 player at 5.0 against Sunderland, either side of 4.3 and 3.8. Pascal Gross (31.5%) has the same shape at 4.2 → 5.0 → 3.6 and is a hold. Dominik Szoboszlai (31.8%) is the one rising line among the popular midfielders at 4.0 → 4.2 → 4.5 over [H]MCI → [A]BRE → [H]BHA. Rayan Cherki (28.5%) is a hold for his 4.7 against Ipswich, but he is on only 53 predicted minutes this week. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and James Garner both project 4.9 at Hull and then fall away at Arsenal in Gameweek 8, so they are one-week picks.
Best FPL Gameweek 6 forwards
Erling Haaland (15.6m, MCI) is the hold of the season: 4.2 → 6.7 → 5.0 over [A]LIV → [H]IPS → [A]AVL, 15.9 points and level with Saka behind Bruno. The Anfield trip holds him to 4.2 this week, but his 6.7 against Ipswich is the highest projection of any player across Gameweeks 6-8, built on 2.25 expected goals across the three, and from Gameweek 7 to Gameweek 11 his line never drops below 5.0. Nobody at 74.0% ownership should be thinking about moving him.
Thiago Rodrigues (7.8m, BRE) is the forward to buy now. He out-projects Haaland this week at 4.4 at Villa Park, runs 4.4 → 4.3 → 4.9 over [A]AVL → [H]LIV → [A]HUL for 13.6, second among forwards over the window, and carries 1.42 expected goals across the three plus Brentford's penalties. The line rises into the Hull trip in Gameweek 8 and holds at 4.0 against Forest after it, so this is a hold, not a rental. At 9.3% ownership he is still a differential.
Gonzalo Garcia (6.0m, FUL) is the cheaper route: 4.2 → 4.4 → 3.8 over [A]IPS → [H]HUL → [A]COV, 12.4 points at 4.9% ownership, with 1.25 expected goals across the three. He is the attacking end of the Fulham program, but Fulham's run gets harder from Gameweek 9 and he drops to 3.1 → 3.6 → 2.5, so treat him as a three-Gameweek buy and review him then. Charalampos Kostoulas (5.6m, BHA) projects 4.0 → 4.3 → 3.1 for 11.4 and is the budget option. Omar Marmoush (7.0m, TOT) totals 11.3, but it is built on 4.8 at home to Coventry in Gameweek 7, either side of 3.6 and 2.9, so he is only the pick if you want that one spike.
Yoane Wissa (18.9%), on penalties, is a comfortable hold at 4.1 → 3.9 → 3.4 over [A]COV → [H]AVL → [A]CRY. Brandon Thomas-Asante (5.0m, COV) projects 4.0 against Newcastle but falls to 3.4 and 3.2 after it, so he is a one-week filler at most.
Best FPL Gameweek 6 captain picks
- Bukayo Saka (9.6m, ARS): 6.4 against Leeds, the top projection of the week, backed by Arsenal's 2.06 expected goals and a 69% win probability against a Leeds side projected for 0.68 expected goals, the lowest of any club. Next three: [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE. At 15.1% ownership he is also the differential armband.
- Bruno Fernandes (11.9m, MUN): 6.3 at home to Spurs, with United on 2.06 expected goals and a 56% win probability. He is the steadiest armband across [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU at 6.3 → 5.1 → 5.8, and only 0.1 behind Saka this week.
- Morgan Rogers (7.8m, CHE) and Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN): both 5.8, Rogers against Bournemouth on [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT and Mbeumo against Spurs on [H]TOT → [A]LEE → [H]BOU.
Gabriel (5.6) is next, with Haaland down at 4.2 for the Anfield trip. The plan across the horizon matters more than this week's pick: Haaland is the Gameweek 7 captain at 6.7 against Ipswich, and Bruno is the Gameweek 8 captain at 5.8 against Bournemouth. That is the case for owning both premiums rather than choosing between them.
Who to sell before FPL Gameweek 6
Joao Pedro (7.7m, CHE) is still the sell, and his 63.7% ownership makes it the most common decision of the week. Chelsea's [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT is a good run, so this is not about fixtures. He has a return date of 17 October, 20 predicted minutes for Gameweek 6, and projects only 2.0 → 2.5 → 3.6. Why now: Gameweeks 6 and 7 are the two where he gives least, and Thiago Rodrigues is worth 5.5 more points over the same three, or Gonzalo Garcia 4.3 more for 1.7m less.
Cole Palmer (9.7m, CHE), 24.5% owned, is the new sell. Again the fixtures are not the problem: [H]BOU → [A]EVE → [H]TOT is a good run, and Chelsea are projected for 2.07 expected goals against Bournemouth, the highest of any club this week. Palmer has a return date of 10 October, deadline day, and the model has him on zero minutes for it, then 20 and 28 minutes, for 0.0 → 1.3 → 1.8. Why now: the Bournemouth game is the best fixture in his run and he is not projected to play in it. Pedro Neto, from the same Chelsea attack, costs 3.2m less and is worth 10.2 more points over the three.
Declan Rice (7.4m, ARS), 11.2%, has the same return date and the same shape: zero minutes this week and 0.0 → 1.3 → 2.0 over [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]EVE, the best defensive program in the game. Christos Tzolis (6.3m, ARS), 11.0%, is out until 17 October and runs 0.0 → 2.5 → 3.1. Why now for both: Leeds at home is exactly the fixture you want an Arsenal player for, and neither is projected to play in it. Enzo Le Fee for 0.6m less than Tzolis is worth 7.2 more points over the three. Ezri Konsa (4.6m, ARS), 18.6%, also carries a 10 October return date and projects 2.6 over three; Schuster at 0.1m less is worth 9.9 more. Nico O'Reilly (6.3m, MCI), 10.4%, is on 15 predicted minutes and 0.9 → 1.3 → 1.3. Pedro Porro has a return date of 19 October and projects nothing this week.
Antoine Semenyo (8.4m, MCI), 14.6%, is on 52 predicted minutes and 2.0 → 3.6 → 3.0 for 8.6 over [A]LIV → [H]IPS → [A]AVL. Why now: Anfield is his worst week, and Mbeumo for 0.5m less is on 15.4 over the same three. Alexander Isak (9.1m, LIV), 21.3%, has a fitness flag, 59 predicted minutes and a flat 2.7 → 3.3 → 3.7 over [H]MCI → [A]BRE → [H]BHA. His line never reaches 4.0, so you can sell this week or next, but waiting gains nothing.
Semi Ajayi (4.2m, HUL), 13.9%, peaks this week at 2.9 and falls to 2.2 and 2.0 over [H]EVE → [A]FUL → [H]BRE, so this is the week to move him. Two players can wait a round. Issa Diop (4.0m, IPS, 12.4%) projects a fair 3.4 at home to Fulham, so play him, but 1.7 at City follows: the Gameweek 7 deadline is the one to sell into. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (6.0m, LEE, 24.3%) runs 2.9 → 4.1 → 3.7 over [A]ARS → [H]MUN → [A]SUN; United at home and Sunderland away are fair fixtures, and only the Arsenal game is a low point, so Garcia at the same price is an upgrade of 1.7 points over three rather than an urgent move.
Best Free Hit team for FPL Gameweek 6
If you play the Free Hit this week, this squad is built purely on Gameweek 6 projected points, respects the three-per-club cap and lines up in a 4-5-1. The starting eleven projects 57.9 points before the captain's double, 64.3 with Saka wearing the armband. For the exact optimum with your own selling prices, run the live FPL optimal teams solver.
- GK: David Raya (ARS, 6.1m) 4.4
- DEF: Gabriel (ARS, 8.0m) 5.6 · James Tarkowski (EVE, 6.2m) 4.9 · Jarrad Branthwaite (EVE, 5.5m) 4.6 · Jannik Schuster (BRE, 4.5m) 4.5
- MID: Bukayo Saka (ARS, 9.6m, captain) 6.4 · Bruno Fernandes (MUN, 11.9m) 6.3 · Morgan Rogers (CHE, 7.8m) 5.8 · Bryan Mbeumo (MUN, 7.9m) 5.8 · Pedro Neto (CHE, 6.5m) 5.2
- FWD: Thiago Rodrigues (BRE, 7.8m) 4.4
- Bench: Walter Benitez (CRY, 4.5m) · Bobby Thomas (COV, 4.0m) · Brandon Thomas-Asante (COV, 5.0m) · Sindre Walle Egeli (IPS, 4.5m)
Haaland does not make the Free Hit side: at 4.2 against Liverpool he is a worse one-week buy than a second United midfielder plus the Everton defence at Hull. That is a Gameweek 6 verdict only: your own squad, Haaland included, comes back for his 6.7 against Ipswich in Gameweek 7.
For the previous week's picks, see our FPL Gameweek 5 preview; every round is collected in the FPL preview hub, and the longer-term strategy sits in our FPL strategy guide.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 6?
Bukayo Saka is the top captain for FPL Gameweek 6 with 6.4 projected points at home to Leeds. Bruno Fernandes is a close second on 6.3 against Spurs, and Morgan Rogers and Bryan Mbeumo are next on 5.8. Haaland projects only 4.2 at Anfield, but he is the Gameweek 7 captain at 6.7 against Ipswich.
Should I sell Cole Palmer before FPL Gameweek 6?
Yes. Cole Palmer has a return date of 10 October and the model has him on zero minutes for Gameweek 6, then 20 and 28 minutes, for 3.1 projected points over the next three. Pedro Neto costs 3.2m less and projects 13.3 over the same Chelsea run.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before FPL Gameweek 6?
Yes. Joao Pedro has a return date of 17 October, 20 predicted minutes for Gameweek 6 and only 8.1 projected points over the next three. Thiago Rodrigues projects 13.6 over the same three Gameweeks, and Gonzalo Garcia 12.4 for 1.7m less.
Which budget defenders are best for FPL Gameweek 6?
Jannik Schuster (4.5m, BRE) is the best budget defender, with 12.5 projected points over Gameweeks 6-8, second only to Gabriel. David Affengruber (4.5m, FUL) is next on 12.1, and Luka Vuskovic (5.0m, BHA) totals 12.4.
Who are the best FPL Gameweek 6 differentials?
Pedro Neto (1.4% owned, 13.3 points over three), Jannik Schuster (0.4%, 12.5), Thiago Rodrigues (9.3%, 13.6) and Matheus Cunha (5.9%, 13.6) are the strongest low-ownership picks for FPL Gameweek 6 and the two Gameweeks after it.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.