FPL Gameweek 5 tips: captain picks and best buys

FPL Gameweek 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 5 is a clean, complete round: all 20 clubs play once, spread from Friday night through to Sunday evening, so there is no blank to plan around and no double gameweek to chase. That makes this a pure fixture round — the points are sitting in a handful of very one-sided home games, and the managers who win Gameweek 5 are the ones who get their cheap squad slots into those matches rather than the ones who own the two obvious premiums. Everybody owns those already.

Every number below is our model’s projection for Gameweek 5, pulled the same day this was written. You can see the full pool any time on FPL player picks, and the round’s kick-off times on the FPL schedule.

Gameweek 5 fixtures: where the points are

Three home teams stand clear of the rest on win probability, expected goals and clean sheet chance at the same time — and all three are hosting a side from the bottom of the projections.

Manchester City – Sunderland is the standout, and it is not close. City are projected for a 74% win probability and 2.38 expected goals, both the highest of any team in Gameweek 5, with a 49% clean sheet chance that is also the best in the round. Sunderland are projected at 9% to win it and just 0.71 expected goals — the lowest attacking projection of all 20 clubs.

Behind that, Newcastle United – Hull City is the second-best fixture on every measure: 64% win probability, 2.09 expected goals, 40% clean sheet. Then come two more home banker-ish games — Nottingham Forest host Coventry City (56% win, 36% clean sheet) and Everton host Ipswich Town (53% win, 35% clean sheet). Arsenal are the best away side of the round at 55% away to Brighton & Hove Albion, with the second-best clean sheet number in the entire gameweek at 37%.

The other side of the ledger matters just as much. Sunderland (9%), Hull City (15%), Nottingham Forest’s visitors Coventry City (20%), Brighton & Hove Albion (20%) and Ipswich Town (21%) are the five weakest projections of the round. If you are holding a cheap defender or a rotation midfielder from any of those sides, Gameweek 5 is the week to move him on. The full market picture is on FPL market probabilities.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 5

Gianluigi Donnarumma (5.5m, MCI) is the top-projected goalkeeper in the game for Gameweek 5 at 4.20, on the back of that 49% clean sheet chance against Sunderland. At 7.6% ownership he is not a differential any more, but he is the correct pick if you are taking a keeper hit this week.

The value play is Lukas Hornicek (5.0m, NEW), second among all keepers at 4.10 and owned by only 1.4% of managers. That is 0.82 points per million, the best ratio of any keeper projected above four points this week, and Newcastle’s 40% clean sheet chance is the second-highest in the round. He is the cheapest route into the second-best defensive fixture of Gameweek 5.

If you already own David Raya (6.0m, ARS), keep him. He is only 3.80 this week, but his six-round decay-weighted score of 15.6 is the highest of any goalkeeper in the game — Arsenal’s programme improves from here ([H]Leeds United in Gameweek 6, [A]Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 7), and selling a keeper to gain half a point this round is how managers lose two points a week for a month.

Jordan Pickford (5.5m, EVE) at 3.80 is the third option, with Everton at home to Ipswich Town and a 35% clean sheet chance.

Best defenders for Gameweek 5

Defence is where this gameweek is actually won, because the three best clean-sheet fixtures are all cheap to access. Josko Gvardiol (5.6m, MCI) leads every defender in the game at 4.90, with 0.18 projected goal involvement of his own on top of a 0.43 clean sheet probability — he is the single highest-projected defensive asset of the round at 20.7% ownership.

James Tarkowski (6.0m, EVE) is second at 4.80 and is the most reliable minutes pick in the group, projected for 86 minutes against Ipswich Town. He also carries the second-best six-round weighted score of any defender (14.2), so this is a buy-and-hold rather than a one-week punt.

The Newcastle back line is the value block of Gameweek 5. Malick Thiaw (5.0m, NEW) projects 4.60 at 2.2% ownership — 0.92 points per million, the best ratio of any defender in the game this week — and Sven Botman (5.0m, NEW) is 4.30 at just 0.7% owned. Both start against the round’s second-weakest attack. Lewis Hall (5.2m, NEW) at 4.50 is the attacking option from the same defence, with 0.12 projected assists, the highest of any defender in this group.

Budget defenders: James Justin (4.5m, LEE) is the cheapest genuinely startable defender of the round at 4.00, which is 0.89 points per million, with Leeds United at home to Crystal Palace. Vitaliy Mykolenko (4.5m, EVE) is 3.80 at the same price with 86 projected minutes — the safest cheap enabler on the board this week. Neco Williams (5.0m, NFO) at 4.20 gives you the Nottingham Forest clean sheet against Coventry City for the same money.

Also worth a look: Jarrad Branthwaite (5.5m, EVE) at 4.30 and Tarik Muharemovic (5.0m, LEE) at 4.10, both under 4% owned. Check the expected XIs on FPL predicted lineups before you commit to any of the cheaper names — rotation is the only thing that breaks this group.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 5

Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) is the highest-projected midfielder in the game at 7.30, and it is not a fixture story — Manchester United are away to Fulham and only 48% to win it. It is a volume story: 0.29 projected goals plus 0.53 projected assists, 87 projected minutes, and the penalties. His six-round weighted score of 25.4 is the highest of any outfield player in the game, so he is a hold through the international break and beyond. Trajectory: 7.3 → 7.6 → 6.3 over the next three gameweeks.

Morgan Gibbs-White (7.9m, NFO) is the round’s best mid-price midfielder at 5.80, the second-highest of any midfielder, with Nottingham Forest at home to the round’s third-weakest side. He has the highest projected goals of any midfielder in Gameweek 5 (0.43) and he is only 9.9% owned. Be aware this is a one-to-two-week window rather than a season hold — his projection falls to 4.2 in Gameweek 6 and 3.2 in Gameweek 7 as Forest go [A]Crystal Palace and then host Arsenal.

Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) at 4.80 is the second United route in and holds up far better across the horizon (16.4 weighted, 4.8 → 5.0 → 4.1). Bukayo Saka (9.5m, ARS) is the premium alternative at 4.80 this week rising to 5.4 and 4.4 — if you are picking one expensive midfielder to own for the next month rather than for Friday, Saka’s weighted 17.2 is second only to Bruno Fernandes.

Budget midfielders: James Garner (6.0m, EVE) is the pick of the entire gameweek at his price. He projects 4.80 — level with Mbeumo and Saka, both of whom cost far more — at 0.80 points per million, he takes Everton’s penalties, and he is owned by 0.1% of managers. Youri Tielemans (5.9m, MUN) at 4.20 (1.7% owned) and Anton Stach (6.0m, LEE) at 4.20 are the other two sub-6.0m midfielders projected above four points. Kevin Schade (6.0m, BRE) at 4.20 is the contrarian pick of the three — Brentford host Chelsea, which is not a clean sheet game, but his 14.7 weighted score is the best of any budget midfielder over the six-round horizon.

Best forwards for Gameweek 5

Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) is the highest-projected player in Fantasy Premier League for Gameweek 5 at 7.40, driven by 0.88 projected goals — nearly double the next-best mark in the round (0.45). At 71.7% ownership he is a template piece, not an edge, but leaving him out of a round in which Manchester City are 74% to beat the weakest attacking side in the league is a decision you need a very specific reason for.

Yoane Wissa (6.2m, NEW) is the best value forward of the round: 5.00 projected, 0.81 points per million, 18.5% owned, at home to Hull City. That is the second-highest forward projection in the game this week for a fraction of the premium price. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (6.0m, LEE) is just behind on points per million at 4.60 with Leeds United at home, and takes his side’s penalties.

Thiago Rodrigues (7.9m, BRE) at 4.70 is the differential premium forward at 10.2% ownership, and one of only three forwards in the game with a six-round weighted score above 15. Thierno Barry (5.6m, EVE) at 4.30 is the cheapest forward projected above four points this week — 0.77 points per million with Everton at home — and at 6.4% owned he is the budget striker slot solved for a fortnight.

Gameweek 5 captain picks

Your captain scores double in Fantasy Premier League, so this is the single biggest decision of the round. The model’s top five projections for Gameweek 5:

1. Erling Haaland. The highest projection in the game at 7.40, in the round’s most one-sided fixture, with the highest projected goals of any player by a distance. Doubling him is the percentage play and it is also the right play.

2. Bruno Fernandes. 7.30, a hair behind, and the genuinely defensible alternative rather than a hedge — he is on penalties and he projects the highest combined goal involvement of any midfielder in the round. If you want to differentiate from a 71.7%-owned captain without giving up projected points, this is the armband to move.

3. Morgan Gibbs-White. 5.80 is a long way back from the top two, so this is a rank-chasing captain rather than a points-maximising one. At 9.9% ownership it is the highest-upside contrarian armband available, in a home game Nottingham Forest are 56% to win. Do not reach past these three — nobody else in Gameweek 5 projects above five points.

Captaincy is a plan, not a one-week pick. Haaland stays the default through Gameweek 7, when Manchester City host Ipswich Town at a 78% win probability — the best single fixture in the next three rounds. Our solver names a captain for every round on optimal teams for FPL.

Gameweek 5 differentials and hidden gems

Differentials win leagues; the template protects rank. These are five of the lowest-owned players in the game projected above four points for Gameweek 5.

James Garner (6.0m, EVE) is the headline. A midfielder on penalties, projected 4.80 in a home game his side is 53% to win, owned by roughly one manager in a thousand. Sven Botman (5.0m, NEW) and Malick Thiaw (5.0m, NEW) are the two ways into the Newcastle clean sheet that almost nobody has taken, both under 2.5% ownership.

One to buy next week rather than now: Harvey Barnes (6.0m, NEW) projects only 3.90 in Gameweek 5 but 4.7 in Gameweek 6 and 4.5 in Gameweek 7, giving him a six-round weighted score of 15.4 at 2.8% ownership. The same logic applies to Nico O'Reilly (6.4m, MCI) — 3.00 this week, but 6.1 by Gameweek 7 when Manchester City host Ipswich Town. Both are Gameweek 6 buys, not Gameweek 5 ones.

Who to sell before Gameweek 5

These are widely-owned players whose Gameweek 5 fixture collapses. Selling is not free — you get one free transfer a week and anything beyond that costs four points — so take the one with the worst projection relative to what you can replace him with.

Martin Dubravka (4.0m, TOT) is the clearest sell in the game: 17.8% of managers own a goalkeeper projected for zero points this week and zero across the whole six-round horizon. He is a bench keeper taking up a squad slot, and swapping him for any cheap starting keeper is a straight upgrade.

Rayan Cherki (7.8m, MCI) is the most expensive mistake. At 29.2% ownership he projects only 3.30 in the round’s best fixture — and that is the tell, because if a Manchester City attacker cannot clear 3.5 at home to Sunderland, the minutes are not there. His weighted score of 10.8 is the lowest of any player priced at 7.5m or more who is owned by more than five per cent of managers.

Maxim De Cuyper (4.8m, BHA) and Bart Verbruggen (4.5m, BHA) are both Brighton & Hove Albion assets hosting the best away side of the round, projected 2.50 and 3.10. Marc Guehi (6.0m, MCI) is the quieter problem — 3.20 this week is survivable, but his 9.2 weighted score is the worst of any defender owned by more than 15% of managers, and he falls to 2.1 in Gameweek 6. Riccardo Calafiori (5.8m, ARS) at 49.7% ownership is the biggest template holding here; he is no disaster at 3.40, but if you need a defender downgrade to fund a Newcastle or Everton buy, he is the one to release.

Best Free Hit team for Gameweek 5

Fantasy Premier League gives you a Free Hit, and Gameweek 5 is a reasonable week to use one if your squad is stacked with players from the five weak fixtures above. This is the highest-projected legal 15 for this round alone — two goalkeepers, five defenders, five midfielders, three forwards, maximum three players per club — lined up in a 1-4-4-2.

Bench, in order: Regan Slater (4.5m), Sindre Walle Egeli (4.5m), Charlie Hughes (3.9m), David Button (4.0m). On a Free Hit the bench is pure enabler money — park it and spend everything on the eleven. The armband goes to Erling Haaland.

Note the shape: three Manchester City, three Newcastle United, two Everton and two Manchester United, which is the three-per-club cap working exactly as intended. The live version of this, re-solved against the current projections every time the model runs, is on optimal teams for FPL — use that as the authoritative answer rather than the table above.

Gameweek 5 summary

Own the two premiums, captain Erling Haaland, and then spend your actual thinking on the six-to-eight squad slots after them. That is where Gameweek 5 is decided: Newcastle United and Everton defenders at under 3% ownership, a penalty-taking midfielder at 0.1%, and getting your cheap enablers out of Brighton & Hove Albion, Hull City and Sunderland before Friday night.

More reading: the FPL preview hub, our FPL Gameweek 4 preview for how this squad shape came about, and the full FPL player picks table if you want to sort the whole pool by projection or by points per million yourself. Confirm your starters on FPL predicted lineups before the deadline, and check kick-off times on the FPL schedule.

FAQ

Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 5?

Erling Haaland. He is the highest-projected player in the game for Gameweek 5 at 7.40, with 0.88 projected goals, and Manchester City are 74% to beat Sunderland at home — the best fixture of the round on every measure. Bruno Fernandes at 7.30 is the strongest alternative if you want to differentiate, and Morgan Gibbs-White at 5.80 is the contrarian pick.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 5?

James Justin (4.5m) and Vitaliy Mykolenko (4.5m) are the two cheapest defenders projected around four points, at 4.00 and 3.80 respectively. One step up, Malick Thiaw (5.0m) is the best points-per-million defender in the game this week at 0.92, with Newcastle United at home to Hull City.

Best differentials for FPL Gameweek 5?

James Garner (6.0m, 0.1% owned) is the standout: 4.80 projected, on Everton penalties, at home to Ipswich Town. Sven Botman (0.7% owned, 4.30) and Youri Tielemans (1.7% owned, 4.20) are the other two sub-2%-ownership players projected above four points this round.

Should I sell Riccardo Calafiori before Gameweek 5?

Only if you need the money. He projects 3.40 for Gameweek 5, which is mid-range rather than bad, but at 49.7% ownership he is the most common defender in the game and his 11.4 six-round weighted score is beaten by several defenders costing less. If a transfer is going spare, downgrading him funds a Newcastle United or Everton defender with a better fixture.

Is Gameweek 5 a good week to play the Free Hit chip?

Only if your squad is heavy on the five weak fixtures — Sunderland, Hull City, Coventry City, Brighton & Hove Albion and Ipswich Town. All 20 clubs play once in Gameweek 5, so there is no blank to cover and no double gameweek to exploit; a Free Hit here is a fixture-swing play, not a structural one. Most managers are better off taking a single transfer and saving the chip.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.