FPL Gameweek 5 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 5 is a clean 20-team round — every club plays once, nobody blanks, and nobody doubles. That makes it a pure planning round: the transfer you make before the deadline is the only move you can act on, but the reason to make it lives in the three Gameweeks behind it. Below is what the model's updated numbers say about which programs are worth owning, who to captain, where the cheap points are hiding, and which heavily-owned names have run out of road.
Numbers here are projected points per Gameweek from our model, refreshed after the latest predicted lineups. You can cross-check every one of them on the FPL player picks page, and the fixture chains against the FPL schedule.
Gameweek 5 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Manchester City own the best three-round run in the game: [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS is 6.81 expected goals and 1.20 expected clean sheets across the three. The Liverpool trip in Gameweek 6 is the one to plan around rather than avoid — two very good home fixtures either side of it are what make City assets worth buying now rather than in a fortnight.
Arsenal are the defensive counterpart. Their [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO carries 1.34 expected clean sheets, the highest figure of any side in the league over this window, even though the Gameweek 5 fixture at Brighton is only a 36% clean-sheet shot on its own. That gap between the round and the program is the whole argument for Arsenal defenders: the fixture you buy into is not the fixture that pays you most.
Manchester United ([A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE, 5.45 expected goals) and Newcastle ([H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL, 5.31) are the two attacking runs behind City, and both open with the softer half of their program. Chelsea's 5.40 expected goals looks similar on paper but arrives in the opposite order — a trip to Brentford first, then Bournemouth at home.
At the other end, Hull (2.90 expected goals), Sunderland (3.03), Coventry (3.17) and Ipswich (3.24) have the four weakest three-round attacking programs in the division. Avoid buying into them, and note the flip side: their opponents are exactly where the defensive points are.
| Team | GW5 fixture | Win % | GW5 xG | GW5 CS | Program (GW5-7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | [H]SUN | 74% | 2.37 | 49% | [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS | 6.81 | 1.20 |
| Arsenal | [A]BHA | 56% | 1.83 | 36% | [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO | 5.70 | 1.34 |
| Man Utd | [A]FUL | 48% | 1.82 | 26% | [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE | 5.45 | 0.84 |
| Chelsea | [A]BRE | 42% | 1.76 | 21% | [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE | 5.40 | 0.73 |
| Newcastle | [H]HUL | 60% | 2.02 | 36% | [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL | 5.31 | 0.91 |
| Liverpool | [A]BOU | 45% | 1.83 | 22% | [A]BOU → [H]MCI → [A]BRE | 4.85 | 0.64 |
| Fulham | [H]MUN | 27% | 1.33 | 16% | [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL | 4.67 | 0.81 |
| Everton | [H]IPS | 55% | 1.83 | 35% | [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE | 4.56 | 0.93 |
| Nottingham Forest | [H]COV | 57% | 1.86 | 38% | [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS | 3.89 | 0.86 |
| Leeds | [H]CRY | 54% | 1.82 | 34% | [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN | 3.83 | 0.66 |
| Hull | [A]NEW | 17% | 1.01 | 13% | [A]NEW → [H]EVE → [A]FUL | 2.90 | 0.53 |
| Sunderland | [A]MCI | 9% | 0.71 | 9% | [A]MCI → [H]BHA → [A]BOU | 3.03 | 0.52 |
Every one of the 20 clubs has exactly one fixture in Gameweek 5 and exactly three across the window, so the cumulative columns above are directly comparable — no blanks and no doubles are distorting them. The full grid is on the FPL fixture schedule, and the underlying win probabilities on the FPL market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers for Gameweek 5
Gianluigi Donnarumma (5.5m, MCI) is the pick of the round at 4.4 projected, on the back of a 49% clean-sheet chance against Sunderland — the highest number any defence carries this week. His program is [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS for 11.9 over the three, and the Anfield week in between is the only soft spot in it. At 7.7% ownership he is close to a differential in a position where most managers are clustered on the same two names.
The one keeper ahead of him over the full window is David Raya (6.0m, ARS), whose [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO totals 12.2 and is backed by the best three-round clean-sheet number in the league. Here the round ranking and the three-round ranking disagree, and it is worth being explicit about which side to take: if you are buying a keeper to hold, Raya is the buy and the extra half-million is the price of the steadier run. If you are buying one keeper for the next fortnight and expect to move again, Donnarumma wins the near term and costs less.
The cheap route is Lukas Hornicek (5.0m, NEW), 3.8 this week and 11.4 across [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL — a run with no genuinely hard fixture in it, at 1.4% ownership. Bernd Leno (4.5m, FUL) is the true budget option and is the rare keeper whose numbers climb as the window goes on (3.0 → 3.4 → 4.0), because Fulham's program improves from Manchester United at home into Ipswich and Hull.
Defenders: where Gameweek 5 pays and who to hold
Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) is the best defender in the game over this window at 14.5 across [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, and his trajectory rises before it settles: 4.5 → 5.6 → 4.4. With William Saliba unavailable until late November, Arsenal's defensive points are not being split as many ways as usual, and the Gameweek 6 home game against Leeds is the single highest-projected round any defender has in this window.
If the premium price is the problem, Ezri Konsa (4.5m, ARS) does most of the same job from the same defence: 13.3 over the identical [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO program, second only to Gabriel among all defenders, at 0.98 points per million this week. Owning one Arsenal defender and putting the saving into the midfield is a cleaner shape than owning two.
James Tarkowski (6.1m, EVE) and Jarrad Branthwaite (5.5m, EVE) project 5.1 and 4.9 for the Ipswich home game, and their [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE is the strongest two-fixture opening any defence has — Everton carry 0.93 expected clean sheets over the three even with the Chelsea game closing it out. Branthwaite at 2.1% ownership is the same fixture run for a lower price and a fraction of the coverage. Vitaliy Mykolenko (4.5m, EVE) is the budget version of the identical bet at 11.2 over the window.
The hidden gem of the position is Antonee Robinson (4.5m, FUL). He is Fulham's designated penalty taker on the model's numbers (0.91 penalty share), which is a scoring route almost no cheap defender has, and his program [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL gives him the clearest rising trajectory in the game at this price: 3.2 → 3.8 → 4.7, with 11.7 over three. Gameweek 5 at home to Manchester United is the weak link in that chain, which is precisely why he is still available at 1.4% ownership before the good half arrives.
Leeds offer two more at the same price point: Tarik Muharemovic (5.0m, LEE) and Nico Elvedi (4.5m, LEE), 5.1 and 4.8 against Crystal Palace at home. Be honest about the shape though — [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN takes Leeds to Arsenal next and both drop to around 2.5 to 3.0 there before recovering for Manchester United at home in Gameweek 7. That is a one-round buy with a good tail, not a set-and-forget.
Midfielders: the engine room
Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) is the strongest midfield asset in the game right now and it is not close: 18.4 over [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE, a 0.99 penalty share, and 89 projected minutes in every one of the three. He is the only player besides Erling Haaland projected above 6.0 in two separate rounds of this window, and Gameweek 6 at home to Tottenham is his ceiling game at 6.9.
Cole Palmer (9.7m, CHE) is the alternative premium at 16.1 over [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE, with penalties (0.98 share) and the best of his run in the middle. Bukayo Saka (9.5m, ARS) sits just behind at 15.8 over [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO and is the one premium midfielder still under 13% ownership — a genuinely under-owned route into the league's best defensive program, which matters because Arsenal's attacking numbers improve sharply for the Leeds home game.
Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) is the cheaper way into the same United run: 5.4 this week, 14.2 over [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE, and 89 projected minutes. Owning Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo together is a legitimate stack because both are good picks independently, and the three-per-club cap leaves room for it.
Morgan Gibbs-White (8.0m, NFO) is the highest-projected midfielder in Gameweek 5 alone at 6.1, with a penalty share of 0.92 and a home game Forest are 57% to win. Buy him with your eyes open: his program is [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS and he falls to 4.1 and then 2.9 as it runs out. That is a one or two-round play, and the round to sell him again is Gameweek 7.
The value bracket is unusually deep. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (6.5m, EVE) projects 5.0 this week and 13.2 over [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE, at 5.3% ownership. His team-mate James Garner (6.0m, EVE) is barely behind on 13.0 over the same run and is owned by 0.2% of managers, which makes him the sharpest differential in this preview. Anton Stach (6.0m, LEE) leads all sub-6.5m midfielders for Gameweek 5 itself at 5.1 with [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN behind it, and Harvey Barnes (6.0m, NEW) is the steadiest of the group at 12.7 across [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL.
Forwards
Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) is the highest-projected player in Gameweek 5 at 7.1 and the highest across the window at 19.0, on the back of [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS, a 0.94 penalty share and 0.94 expected goals in this round alone. The Anfield trip drops him to 5.0, and he bounces straight back to 6.9 for Ipswich at home — there is no round in this window where selling him improves anything.
Kai Havertz (7.6m, ARS) is the best value forward on the board at 12.7 over [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, rising to 4.8 for the Leeds home game, and at 7.9% ownership he is the cheapest way to take a position on Arsenal's schedule. Gonzalo Garcia (6.0m, FUL) is the budget answer: 11.7 over [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL, with the best two of those three still to come after this week.
Thiago Rodrigues (7.9m, BRE) carries 0.46 expected goals and a 0.93 penalty share at home to Chelsea, but his program [H]CHE → [A]AVL → [H]LIV is the harder kind — own him for the fixture, not the run.
Gameweek 5 captain picks
The armband doubles a player's score in FPL, so it goes to the highest realistic ceiling, not the safest floor.
- Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) — 7.1 projected, the top number in the round by a full point, against a Sunderland side with the weakest three-round attacking program in the division and a 9% win chance here. Penalties, the highest expected goals of any player, and the best three-round run behind it: [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS.
- Morgan Gibbs-White (8.0m, NFO) — 6.1 projected at home to Coventry, and the cheapest route to a genuine ceiling this week. The armband is the best use of him given [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS falls away immediately afterwards.
- Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) — 6.0 at Fulham, and the pick if you want a captain you will not have to re-think: with [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE he is also the top-projected player in the game for Gameweek 6, so an armband on him now is the start of a two-week plan rather than a one-off.
Looking one step further matters here. Bruno Fernandes tops Gameweek 6, with Saka and Palmer behind him, and Haaland retakes the lead in Gameweek 7 against Ipswich at home. If you are choosing which premium to own rather than which to captain this week, that sequence — Haaland, Bruno Fernandes, Haaland — is the argument for owning both.
Who to sell before Gameweek 5
Joao Pedro (7.8m, CHE) is the clearest sale in the game and the round to do it is this one. He is owned by 75.4% of managers and the model has him on 44 projected minutes with a 0.47 starter factor — a minutes problem, not a fixture problem, and it does not resolve itself inside [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE. His best fixture of the window, Bournemouth at home in Gameweek 6, still only projects 3.2. Waiting a week costs you a return you were never going to get.
Josko Gvardiol (5.7m, MCI) is the opposite kind of sell, and the reason to name him is the timing. Sunderland at home is an excellent fixture, 5.3 is the best number any defender has this week, and he is worth starting. But [A]LIV → [H]IPS follows and he drops to 3.2 and then 3.4, the weakest tail of any Manchester City asset. So the choice is selling into a strong score now or selling out of two ordinary ones later — and if the transfer is going into an Arsenal defender, the Gameweek 6 fixture swing is the whole gain.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (6.0m, LEE) follows the same logic at 23.0% ownership. Crystal Palace at home is a fair fixture and 4.5 is a respectable projection — this is not a bad week for him. But [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN takes Leeds to Arsenal next and he falls to 2.4 — a 2.1-point drop in a single round — so the round to move is before that rather than after it.
Rayan Cherki (7.8m, MCI) is the City asset to be wary of despite [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS, on 44 projected minutes and 10.4 over the window. When a club has the best program in the league, the rotation risk sits with the players who are not certain of 90 minutes, and at that price you are paying a premium for a schedule you are not fully exposed to. Yoane Wissa (6.2m, NEW) is a softer version of the same call: 4.9 against Hull this week is good, but [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL runs 4.9, then 3.6, then 3.0, so the value is in selling on the back of the Hull game rather than after the decline is visible.
You can wait a round on Riccardo Calafiori (5.8m, ARS). At 50.2% ownership he looks like an obvious template sale, but 12.3 over [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO is genuinely strong and Gameweek 6 at home to Leeds is his best fixture of the run — there is no urgency here, and the transfer is better spent elsewhere this week.
Best Free Hit team for Gameweek 5
FPL's Free Hit chip builds a one-week squad and hands your original team back afterwards, so it is optimised for this Gameweek alone and the three-round programs above do not apply to it. Our solver's answer for Gameweek 5 comes out in a 5-4-1:
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma (5.5m, MCI) — 4.4
- DEF: Josko Gvardiol (5.7m, MCI) 5.3 · Daniel Munoz (5.4m, NFO) 5.1 · James Tarkowski (6.1m, EVE) 5.1 · Tarik Muharemovic (5.0m, LEE) 5.1 · Neco Williams (5.0m, NFO) 5.0
- MID: Morgan Gibbs-White (8.0m, NFO) 6.1 · Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) 6.0 · Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) 5.4 · Anton Stach (6.0m, LEE) 5.1
- FWD: Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) 7.1 — captain
That XI projects 59.7 before the armband and 66.8 with Haaland captained, and it respects the three-per-club cap with Manchester City and Nottingham Forest both maxed out. The live, always-current version is solved on the optimal teams for FPL page, which recalculates as lineups change — use that rather than this snapshot if you are playing the chip late.
Before the Gameweek 5 deadline
Check the FPL predicted lineups before locking anything in, especially for Chelsea and Manchester City where the rotation risk flagged above is concentrated. Everything in this article comes from the same model run that drives the player picks and optimal teams tools, and last week's edition is still worth a read for context: FPL Gameweek 4 tips. Every round we cover is collected in the FPL preview hub, and the wider strategy material sits in our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 5?
Erling Haaland. He is projected 7.1 points for Gameweek 5, a full point clear of anyone else, at home to a Sunderland side given a 9% chance of winning. He takes Manchester City's penalties (0.94 share) and carries 0.94 expected goals in the fixture. Morgan Gibbs-White (6.1) and Bruno Fernandes (6.0) are the alternatives if you want a differential armband.
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 5?
Ezri Konsa at 4.5m is the standout — 4.4 projected this week and 13.3 across Arsenal's [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO run, second only to Gabriel among all defenders. Antonee Robinson (4.5m, FUL) is the differential pick at 1.4% ownership, because he takes Fulham's penalties and his numbers climb from 3.2 to 4.7 over the next three Gameweeks. Vitaliy Mykolenko (4.5m, EVE) and Nico Elvedi (4.5m, LEE) are the fixture-led alternatives.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before Gameweek 5?
Yes. He is owned by 75.4% of managers but the model projects him just 44 minutes with a 0.47 starter factor, and his best fixture in the next three — Bournemouth at home in Gameweek 6 — still only returns 3.2. This is a minutes problem rather than a fixture problem, so waiting for a better week does not help.
Best differentials for FPL Gameweek 5?
James Garner (6.0m, EVE) at 0.2% ownership projects 13.0 over Everton's [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE run, almost matching his more popular team-mate Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Antonee Robinson (4.5m, FUL, 1.4% owned) is the defensive differential thanks to penalty duties, and Lukas Hornicek (5.0m, NEW, 1.4% owned) is the goalkeeper equivalent with 11.4 projected over three rounds.
Is Gameweek 5 a blank or double gameweek in FPL?
Neither. All 20 clubs have exactly one fixture in Gameweek 5 and exactly three across Gameweeks 5 to 7, so no team blanks and no team doubles. That makes the three-round totals in the table above directly comparable between clubs.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.