FPL Gameweek 4 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 4 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell
Fantasy Premier League returns from the international break with a Gameweek 4 deadline at 13:30 on Friday 12 September, and the first kick-off three hours later. That gap matters more than usual this week: a fortnight of national-team football has left several heavily owned players with real minutes doubts, and our model has already cut their projections. Gameweek 4 is the round where the template gets punished.
The headline is simple. Chelsea host Hull City in comfortably the best fixture of the round, and Arsenal travel to Sunderland with the highest clean-sheet probability on the slate. But owning the obvious Chelsea and Arsenal names is not what separates you this week — almost everyone will. The gap is made in the cheap defensive spots, and in deciding which 40%-owned player to let go.
Gameweek 4 fixtures: where the points are
Ten matches, spread from Friday evening to Monday night. These are the four that shape team selection, straight from the model's match probabilities:
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | [H]Hull City | 78% | 2.67 | 48% |
| Hull City | [A]Chelsea | 7% | 0.74 | 7% |
| Liverpool | [H]Fulham | 66% | 2.38 | 35% |
| Fulham | [A]Liverpool | 15% | 1.06 | 9% |
| Arsenal | [A]Sunderland | 64% | 1.86 | 48% |
| Sunderland | [H]Arsenal | 13% | 0.72 | 15% |
| Crystal Palace | [H]Ipswich Town | 50% | 1.64 | 35% |
| Ipswich Town | [A]Crystal Palace | 23% | 1.05 | 19% |
Chelsea - Hull City is the fixture to attack. A 78% win probability alongside 2.67 expected goals is the best combination in the Gameweek, and Hull are projected for just 0.74 goals of their own. The other side of the same coin: Hull assets are close to unplayable this week, and so are Sunderland's and Fulham's.
The Manchester derby, Manchester United - Manchester City, is the round's marquee tie but not its best fantasy fixture — the model splits it 31% to United and 45% to City, with clean-sheet chances of only 17% and 23%. Attack it with attackers, not defenders.
Look one step further and the picture changes again. Arsenal have the best sustained run in the game: [A]Sunderland → [A]Brighton → [H]Leeds → [A]Nottingham Forest → [H]Everton, with clean-sheet probabilities of 48%, 40%, 53%, 47% and 54%. Manchester City's schedule improves sharply from Gameweek 5 ([H]Sunderland at 71%, then [H]Ipswich at 79%). Chelsea, by contrast, are front-loaded — after Hull they travel to Brentford. Check the full run on the FPL schedule page before you commit a transfer.
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 4
David Raya (6.0m, Arsenal) is the premium pick and the model's top-projected keeper at 4.5 points, on the back of that 48% clean sheet at Sunderland. He is also the most popular route in at 38.6% ownership, and his weighted score over the next six Gameweeks (15.91) is the best of any keeper — a hold-and-forget pick rather than a one-week punt.
The value play is Emiliano Martinez (5.0m, Chelsea) at 4.1 projected points and only 4.5% ownership. A 48% clean-sheet chance against Hull, for a keeper virtually nobody owns, is the cleanest cheap differential in the round.
If you need to go cheaper still, Bart Verbruggen (4.5m, Brighton) and Antonin Kinsky (4.5m, Tottenham) both project 3.8 points and lead all keepers on value across the six-week horizon, at 2.87 and 2.85 weighted points per million respectively. Either frees up serious budget for the premium spots.
Best defenders for Gameweek 4
This is where Gameweek 4 is won. The single best defensive pick on the board is not a premium at all.
Levi Colwill (4.9m, Chelsea) — 5.2 projected points, the highest of any defender in the Gameweek, at 1.2% ownership. He is projected for a full 89 minutes with a starter factor of 0.97, and carries a 45% clean-sheet share against a Hull side expected to manage 0.74 goals. At under 5.0m this is the standout differential of the round. Be aware that his three-Gameweek total of 12.3 front-loads heavily into this fixture, so treat him as a two-to-three week hold rather than a season-long defender.
If you would rather take the established Chelsea route than the punt, Maxence Lacroix (6.0m, Chelsea) projects 4.8 points at 8.3% ownership and leads all defenders on weighted six-round score (13.51). He is the safer of the two.
Three more worth naming. Virgil van Dijk (6.5m, Liverpool) projects 4.3 points at home to Fulham and remains the most reliable premium defender in the game. Jan Paul van Hecke (4.9m, Tottenham) offers 4.1 points at 7.2% ownership, and Tyrick Mitchell (4.5m, Crystal Palace) gives you 4.2 points and a 30% clean-sheet chance against Ipswich for the price of a bench player.
The budget pick: Dara O'Shea (4.0m, Ipswich Town) is the best pure value defender in the game right now — 3.3 points this week and the top weighted points-per-million figure of any defender at 2.81. At 4.0m he is a genuine enabler, letting you afford a second premium elsewhere.
Compare the whole defensive pool, sorted by projected points and ownership, on the FPL player picks page.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 4
Cole Palmer (9.6m, Chelsea) is the highest-projected player in Gameweek 4 at 7.2 points, and it is not close. He takes Chelsea's penalties with an 86% share, he is projected for 78 minutes, and he opened the season with 13 points in Gameweek 1. Against a Hull side the model expects to concede heavily, he is the first name on the teamsheet this week.
Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, Manchester United) is the best long-term midfield asset in the game — his weighted six-Gameweek score of 24.56 is the highest of any player, ahead of Haaland. He projects 6.4 points at home to Manchester City with a 90% penalty share, and his projection never drops below 6.3 in any of the next six rounds. Expensive, but the most durable premium in FPL.
Dominik Szoboszlai (7.0m, Liverpool) is the value premium. He projects 5.9 points at home to Fulham, is nailed for 89 minutes (starter factor 0.97), and holds a 99% penalty share. At 7.0m his weighted value of 2.59 points per million beats every midfielder priced above him. If you cannot afford both Palmer and Bruno, Szoboszlai is how you get close to three premium midfielders' output for two premium prices.
Morgan Rogers (7.5m, Chelsea) rounds out the Chelsea attack at 5.4 points — but check the three-per-club cap before you start stacking.
Hidden gems: Daizen Maeda (5.4m, Ipswich Town) is the model's favourite budget midfielder — 4.0 points this week, a weighted score of 14.63 and the best midfield value in the game at 2.71 weighted points per million, all at 0.3% ownership. His projection never drops below 3.7 across the next six Gameweeks, which is remarkable consistency for a 5.4m asset.
Marcus Tavernier (6.0m, Bournemouth) is the other one to know: 4.4 points, 2.5% ownership, and 10 points already banked in Gameweek 1. Kevin Schade (6.0m, Brentford) at 4.1 points and 4.2% ownership, and Diego Gomez (5.0m, Brighton) at 4.3 points and 5.0% ownership, are both strong cheap fills. Mathys Tel (5.9m, Tottenham) projects 4.3 points at effectively zero ownership, though his 61 projected minutes make him the riskiest of the group — if he does not start, Schade is the safer version of the same idea.
Best forwards for Gameweek 4
Erling Haaland (15.5m, Manchester City) projects 6.3 points away at Manchester United and carries a 94% penalty share. At 71.1% ownership he is not a differential and never will be — but his weighted six-round score of 23.35 is second only to Bruno Fernandes, and City's fixtures improve sharply from Gameweek 5. Holding him is correct; captaining him this week is not obviously right.
Joao Pedro (7.7m, Chelsea) is the best-value premium forward in the game. He projects 6.0 points against Hull, has 11 points on the board from Gameweek 1, and at 7.7m returns 2.19 weighted points per million — well ahead of Haaland's 1.51. He is 71.5% owned, so this is a template hold rather than an edge.
The value pick: Evanilson (6.0m, Bournemouth) projects 4.2 points at only 3.3% ownership, with the best weighted value of any forward at 2.36 points per million. Bournemouth host Brentford in a fixture the model rates close to even, and Evanilson's projection stays between 3.4 and 4.2 across all six rounds — a genuine set-and-forget third striker.
Thierno Barry (5.5m, Everton) is the cheaper alternative at 3.2 points this week, but his schedule improves immediately: 4.3 and 4.1 in Gameweeks 5 and 6. He is a buy-now-for-later pick rather than a Gameweek 4 starter.
Captain picks for Gameweek 4
Captain Cole Palmer. At 7.2 projected points he is 0.8 clear of the next-best option, he has the penalties, and he has the best fixture in the Gameweek. Everything lines up.
| Rank | Player | Price | Fixture | Projected points | Penalty share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Palmer | 9.6m | [H]Hull City | 7.2 | 86% |
| 2 | Bruno Fernandes | 12.0m | [H]Man City | 6.4 | 90% |
| 3 | Erling Haaland | 15.5m | [A]Man Utd | 6.3 | 94% |
| 4 | Joao Pedro | 7.7m | [H]Hull City | 6.0 | 3% |
| 5 | Dominik Szoboszlai | 7.0m | [H]Fulham | 5.9 | 99% |
Bruno Fernandes is the alternative if you want to differentiate — the Manchester derby is a lower-probability fixture but a higher-variance one, and he has the penalties in a game likely to be tight. Erling Haaland is the third option, though captaining a striker away in a derby with a 45% win probability is the least comfortable of the three.
Captaincy is a plan, not a single pick. If you are building for the medium term, note that Bruno's projection stays above 6.3 for six straight Gameweeks while Palmer's drops to 4.6 in Gameweek 5 — owning Bruno solves more captaincy weeks than owning Palmer does.
Who to sell before Gameweek 4
Riccardo Calafiori (5.7m, Arsenal) is the clearest sell in the game. He is 46.1% owned — one of the three most-owned players in FPL — and projects just 2.2 points despite Arsenal's excellent fixture. The reason is minutes: his starter factor has fallen to 0.52 and he is projected for only 52 minutes. Worse, his projection is flat at roughly 2 points for all six of the next Gameweeks. Nearly half the field is holding a defender the model does not expect to start. If you want one Arsenal defender, make it Gabriel (8.0m) at 3.9 points instead.
Rayan Cherki (7.8m, Manchester City) at 30.6% ownership projects 2.6 points with a 0.74 starter factor. City's midfield rotation is real, and Cherki is on the wrong side of it.
Alexander Isak (9.0m, Liverpool) is the premium to move on. He projects 3.9 points at 17.2% ownership, but 53 projected minutes and a 0.66 starter factor tell the story, and his weighted value of 1.33 points per million is the worst of any forward in his price bracket. His projection declines to 2.4 by Gameweek 9. Joao Pedro at 7.7m does more for 1.3m less.
Also on the watchlist: Marc Guehi (6.0m, Manchester City) at 18.7% ownership and 1.7 projected points, and Nico O'Reilly (6.5m, Manchester City) at 17.9% and 2.1. Both are caught in the same rotation.
Beyond individuals, cut your exposure to Hull City, Sunderland and Fulham for this round — the model gives them 7%, 13% and 15% win probabilities respectively. You can sanity-check any of these against the bookmakers' own numbers on the FPL market probabilities page.
Squad structure notes for Gameweek 4
Two constraints are worth restating. First, FPL allows a maximum of three players from any one club — Palmer, Joao Pedro and Colwill is already a full Chelsea allocation, so adding Lacroix or Rogers means dropping one of them. Second, the natural correlated stack this week is a Chelsea goalkeeper alongside a Chelsea defender: Martinez and Colwill both cash in on the same 48% clean sheet, and both are owned by under 5% of managers.
Do not stack for the sake of it. A second player from a club is only worth owning if he is a good pick in his own right, and outside the Chelsea and Arsenal blocks, few clubs in Gameweek 4 justify a double-up.
For team news as it lands ahead of the Friday deadline, check the FPL predicted lineups — after an international break this is the page that changes most in the final 24 hours. If you would rather have the model build the squad for you, the optimal FPL teams solver runs the full optimisation live against current prices and projections.
Gameweek 4 summary
- Captain: Cole Palmer (9.6m), 7.2 projected points, home to Hull City
- Best premium buy: Bruno Fernandes (12.0m) — highest weighted score in the game
- Best value buy: Dominik Szoboszlai (7.0m), 5.9 points and a 99% penalty share
- Top differential: Levi Colwill (4.9m), 5.2 points at 1.2% ownership
- Budget enablers: Dara O'Shea (4.0m) in defence, Daizen Maeda (5.4m) in midfield
- Sell: Riccardo Calafiori (5.7m) — 46% owned, 2.2 projected points, 52 minutes
For the rest of the season's analysis, browse the FPL preview hub, and if you are new to the game our FPL strategy guide covers chips, transfers and team structure from the ground up. You can also revisit last week's FPL Gameweek 3 preview to see how the picks landed, or compare every player side by side on the FPL player picks page.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 4?
Cole Palmer is the top captain pick for Gameweek 4, with 7.2 projected points — 0.8 more than any other player. Chelsea host Hull City with a 78% win probability and 2.67 expected goals, the best fixture on the slate, and Palmer takes their penalties with an 86% share. Bruno Fernandes (6.4) and Erling Haaland (6.3) are the alternatives if you want to differentiate.
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 4?
Levi Colwill at 4.9m is the best budget defender in Gameweek 4, projecting 5.2 points — the highest of any defender in the round — at just 1.2% ownership. Dara O'Shea (4.0m) is the best pure enabler with the top weighted value of any defender at 2.81 points per million, and Tyrick Mitchell (4.5m) offers 4.2 points with a 30% clean-sheet chance against Ipswich.
Should I sell Riccardo Calafiori before Gameweek 4?
Yes — Calafiori is the standout sell for Gameweek 4. He projects only 2.2 points despite Arsenal's 48% clean-sheet chance at Sunderland, because his starter factor has dropped to 0.52 and he is forecast for just 52 minutes. He is 46.1% owned, and his projection stays flat at around 2 points for all six of the next Gameweeks. Gabriel (8.0m, 3.9 points) is the Arsenal defender to own instead.
Best differentials for FPL Gameweek 4?
Levi Colwill (4.9m, Chelsea) is the top differential at 5.2 projected points and 1.2% ownership. Daizen Maeda (5.4m, Ipswich Town) is the best budget midfield differential at 0.3% ownership with the best midfield value in the game, and Marcus Tavernier (6.0m, Bournemouth) offers 4.4 points at 2.5% ownership. In goal, Emiliano Martinez (5.0m, Chelsea) gives you a 48% clean sheet at 4.5% ownership.
Is Erling Haaland worth his price in Gameweek 4?
Haaland is worth holding but not obviously worth captaining in Gameweek 4. He projects 6.3 points away at Manchester United in a fixture the model rates at just 45%, and his value of 1.51 weighted points per million trails Joao Pedro's 2.19. However, his weighted six-Gameweek score of 23.35 is the second-highest in the game and Manchester City's fixtures improve sharply from Gameweek 5, so selling him now would be short-sighted.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool