Fantasy Premier League 2026/2027 Round 3 Preview

FPL Gameweek 3 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials

Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 3 runs from Friday night to Sunday evening, and the model has one fixture towering over everything else: Manchester City at home to Coventry, an 80% win probability with 2.87 expected goals. That part is not a secret — Erling Haaland is owned by 69.2% of managers and he will be captained by most of them.

So the round is not decided by whether you own Haaland. It is decided by the six or seven squad spots after the obvious names: which cheap defender you pair with the City attack, which mid-priced midfielder you trust, and which heavily-owned player you finally cut before his programme falls apart. That is what this preview is about. Every number below comes from our own projection model — you can cross-check all of it on the FPL player picks page.

Gameweek 3 fixtures: who to target

Four matches shape the round. Note that City, Brentford and Liverpool all have both a high win probability and a genuine clean-sheet case, which is what makes them worth doubling up on.

The big game of the round is Arsenal - Chelsea on Sunday evening. The model leans clearly to the home side, and that matters beyond one week: Arsenal's next three are [H]Chelsea → [A]Sunderland → [A]Brighton, and their clean-sheet probability climbs to 52% in Gameweek 4 and 52% again in Gameweek 6 at home to Leeds. That is the best sustained defensive run in the game right now.

Brighton at home to Leeds (53% win, 35% clean sheet) is the underrated fixture. Leeds are projected for just 1.06 expected goals on the road. Full kick-off times and the rest of the run-in are on the FPL schedule page, and the underlying odds sit on the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers

David Raya (6.0m, ARS) is the premium pick and the best goalkeeper in the game over a six-week horizon — 4.0 xP this week against Chelsea, and a weighted score of 15.4, comfortably clear of the field. He is 38.2% owned, so he is closer to template than differential, but the Arsenal fixture run genuinely justifies it.

Caoimhin Kelleher (5.0m, BRE) is the highest-projected goalkeeper for Gameweek 3 alone at 4.1 xP, with a 40% clean-sheet chance at home to Sunderland, and he saves you a full million on Raya.

The budget answer is Bart Verbruggen (4.5m, BHA) — 3.7 xP with a 34% clean sheet against Leeds, and a weighted PPM of 2.89, the joint-best of any keeper. If you want the same price with almost no ownership, Marco Bizot (4.5m, AVL) is on 0.1% ownership and actually projects slightly higher this week at 3.9 xP away at Hull. Same money, same weighted score, and nobody else has him.

Defenders

Josko Gvardiol (5.6m, MCI) is the standout buy of the round. He is the highest-projected defender in Gameweek 3 at 5.3 xP, he is nailed at 89 projected minutes with a 0.97 starter factor, and he shares that 47% Man City clean sheet. At 5.6m with 15.9% ownership he is both cheap and a genuine differential against the field. His trajectory is 5.3 → 3.4 → 5.0 over the next three, weighted score 15.9 — the peaks land exactly when City are at home.

Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) is the premium alternative and the best defender in the game on a weighted basis at 18.3, with a trajectory of 4.6 → 5.5 → 4.6 → 5.7. He costs 2.4m more than Gvardiol, and the case for paying it is the Arsenal fixture run rather than this single week.

The budget pick is Kristoffer Ajer (4.5m, BRE): 4.2 xP for 4.5m is a PPM of 0.93, the best return per million of any defender this round, and Brentford's 41% clean-sheet chance is the third-highest in the game. Matty Cash (4.5m, AVL) at 4.0 xP is the same idea at the same price if you already have Brentford cover.

Hidden gem: Chris Richards (5.0m, CRY) is owned by 0.7% of managers and carries a weighted score of 14.5 — higher than Virgil van Dijk (6.5m, 13.9) for 1.5m less. His trajectory is 3.7 → 4.5 → 4.2 → 4.2, so it is the next month rather than this week that makes him. Mats Wieffer (5.0m, BHA) is the same profile at 0.5% ownership with a stronger immediate return of 4.2 xP.

Midfielders

Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) is the best midfielder in the game and it is not close: 6.0 xP this week and a weighted score of 24.8, ahead of the next-best midfielder by five full points. His trajectory rises — 6.0 → 6.8 → 7.1 → 8.0 — and he takes United's penalties. At 46.8% ownership he is close to essential rather than clever, but the model is emphatic.

Dominik Szoboszlai (7.0m, LIV) is the best value premium on the board. He projects 5.9 xP away at Ipswich, holds a weighted PPM of 2.82, and carries a 91% penalty share for Liverpool — a real ceiling-raiser at that price. He is 42.7% owned.

Antoine Semenyo (8.5m, MCI) at 5.3 xP is the way to attack the Coventry fixture without spending 15.5m. Be aware this is a one-week spike: his Gameweek 4 projection drops to 3.6 when City travel to Manchester United.

The budget midfielder is Diego Gomez (5.0m, BHA) — 4.4 xP for 5.0m, a PPM of 0.88, and 3.9% ownership. He backs it up with 11 points already banked across the opening two rounds. Mohamed Sangare (5.6m, BRE) is the alternative at 4.1 xP and a weighted 14.2, and he was one of the highest scorers of Gameweek 1 with 14 points.

Hidden gem: Daizen Maeda (5.5m, IPS) is owned by 0.4% of managers and carries a weighted score of 14.0 — ahead of Marcus Cunha (8.0m, 13.7) at 2.5m less. Ipswich are not a good team, but Maeda's projection is remarkably flat at 3.8 → 4.0 → 3.8 → 4.2, which is exactly what you want from a fifth-midfielder slot you do not intend to keep transferring.

A note on Cole Palmer (9.6m, CHE): his weighted score of 17.8 is excellent and his Gameweek 4 projection is 7.3, the second-highest of any midfielder that week. But his Gameweek 3 number is only 3.9, because Chelsea travel to Arsenal with a 19% win probability. This is a buy for next week, not this one.

Forwards

Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) projects 9.3 xP, which is 3.3 points clear of the second-best player in the game at any position. He plays 89 projected minutes, takes the penalties with a 99% share, and City are 80% to win with 2.87 expected goals. There is no argument here.

Alexander Isak (9.0m, LIV) is the best non-Haaland forward on a weighted basis at 16.5, with an unusually stable profile — 4.8 → 4.9 → 4.5 → 4.1. He is 16.2% owned, which makes him a real differential among premium forwards.

Thiago Rodrigues (8.0m, BRE) at 4.9 xP is the best one-week forward outside City. He takes Brentford's penalties and faces the team with the lowest projected attack in the round. Worth noting his projection then flattens to 3.6, so treat it as a short-term move.

The forward pool thins out badly below 6.0m this week — nothing under that price projects above 3.7 xP. If you are short of funds, take the saving in defence instead.

Captain picks for Gameweek 3

1. Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI) — 9.3 xP. A 55% higher projection than any other option, a home fixture against the weakest projected attack in the league, and the penalties. Straightforward.
2. Bruno Fernandes (12.0m, MUN) — 6.0 xP. The differential armband if you want one, away at Everton, on penalties, and with the best projection of any midfielder.
3. Dominik Szoboszlai (7.0m, LIV) — 5.9 xP. Effectively level with Bruno at 5.0m cheaper, away at Ipswich.

Captaincy is a plan, not a one-week pick. Haaland's next three projections are 9.3 → 6.2 → 7.9, so he remains the default in Gameweek 5 at home to Sunderland but not in Gameweek 4 at Old Trafford — that week the model prefers Bruno at 6.8. Owning both premiums gives you a top captain option in every one of the next four rounds. The predicted lineups page is worth a final check before the deadline.

Who to sell before the Gameweek 3 deadline

These are the widely-owned players the model has turned against. None of them appear in the buy sections above.

The urgent one is Calafiori. At 41.6% ownership he is one of the most-held defenders in the game, and the model now has him at 63 minutes with a 0.67 starter factor and a weighted score of just 7.2 — less than half of Gvardiol's 15.9 at effectively the same price. Selling Calafiori and buying Gvardiol is a straight sideways move in cash and roughly doubles your projected return. If it turns out he starts and plays 90, reconsider, but the model is pricing genuine rotation risk.

Dubravka is the easiest transfer on the board: 18.3% of managers are holding a goalkeeper projected for zero minutes.

Two players you should not sell despite a poor week: Joao Pedro (7.6m, CHE) at 69.1% ownership only projects 3.5 xP at Arsenal, but rebounds to 5.9 at home to Hull in Gameweek 4. And Chelsea's fixtures generally are better than this week suggests. Hold.

Best Free Hit team for Gameweek 3

If you are considering the Free Hit chip this week, this is the highest-projected legal squad for Gameweek 3 alone — 99.6m of the 100.0m budget, maximum three players per club, and a projected 58.3 points from the starting XI before the captain is doubled (67.6 with Haaland captained).

It is a 3-5-2, and it leans on two correlated blocks: three Man City players sharing a 47% clean sheet and 2.87 expected goals, and three Brentford players sharing a 41% clean sheet. Both stacks are made of players who are good picks in their own right, which is the only condition under which stacking is worth doing. The remaining budget goes on four bench fillers at 4.0–4.5m, since Free Hit bench points rarely matter.

For the exact live optimum — which updates as lineups and odds move — use the solver on our optimal teams for FPL page rather than this snapshot.

Summary

Own Haaland and captain him; that part is not where the round is won. The Gameweek 3 differentiators are Gvardiol at 5.6m as the cheapest route into the best fixture in the game, Bizot or Verbruggen at 4.5m in goal, and cutting Calafiori before 41.6% of the game works out that he is a 63-minute player. Then keep an eye on Palmer for a Gameweek 4 move.

Keep tracking the numbers on the player picks and fixture schedule pages, and find more rounds in our FPL preview hub or browse the fantasy football guides if you are new to the game.

FAQ

Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 3?

Erling Haaland (15.5m, MCI). He projects 9.3 xP at home to Coventry, which is 3.3 points clear of any other player in the game, with an 80% win probability, 2.87 expected team goals and a 99% penalty share. Bruno Fernandes (6.0 xP) is the differential alternative and Dominik Szoboszlai (5.9 xP) the cheap one.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 3?

Kristoffer Ajer (4.5m, BRE) is the best value in the round at 4.2 xP, a PPM of 0.93, with Brentford on a 41% clean-sheet chance at home to Sunderland. Matty Cash (4.5m, AVL) is the same price at 4.0 xP. One step up, Josko Gvardiol at 5.6m projects 5.3 xP and is the best defender in the gameweek outright.

What are the best differentials for FPL Gameweek 3?

Chris Richards (5.0m, CRY) at 0.7% ownership has a six-round weighted score of 14.5, higher than defenders costing 1.5m more. Mats Wieffer (5.0m, BHA) is on 0.5% ownership with 4.2 xP this week, Daizen Maeda (5.5m, IPS) on 0.4% has a weighted 14.0, and Marco Bizot (4.5m, AVL) is a 0.1%-owned goalkeeper projecting 3.9 xP.

Should I sell Riccardo Calafiori before Gameweek 3?

Yes, on the current projections. He is 41.6% owned but the model has him at 63 projected minutes with a 0.67 starter factor, giving 2.2 xP this week and a six-round weighted score of 7.2. Josko Gvardiol costs effectively the same at 5.6m and scores 15.9 on the same measure, so it is a like-for-like swap that roughly doubles the projection.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool