WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3: best buys and captain picks

WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3 is the round where the season's first real fixture swing shows up. Arsenal and Chelsea both have their best week of the next three right now and a much harder pair behind it, Manchester City start a run that only gets better, and Tottenham quietly own one of the strongest three-game programs in the game at almost no ownership. The transfer you make this week is the one you can act on — the reason to make it is what happens in Gameweeks 4 and 5.

All numbers below are the model's current projected points for this game, refreshed on 17 September. Every one of the 26 clubs in the pool has a fixture in Gameweek 3, so there is no blank to plan around this week — the whole 13-match round is live. You can check the same values yourself on the WSL Fantasy player picks page and the WSL Fantasy schedule.

The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning

Chelsea have the best three-round run in the game by a clear margin — 7.77 expected goals and 1.36 expected clean sheets across [H]Birmingham City → [H]Arsenal → [A]West Ham — and the Birmingham game in Gameweek 3 is the single best fixture on the board: 91% win probability, 3.50 expected goals, a 62.9% clean sheet chance. Manchester City are second at 6.76 and 1.15, and theirs is the more durable shape: [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton → [H]Arsenal contains no genuinely hard week.

The two programs to read carefully are Arsenal's and Manchester United's, because they point in opposite directions. Arsenal host Manchester United this week at 2.27 expected goals and a 45.3% clean sheet chance, then travel to Chelsea and Manchester City — two of the toughest trips in the whole window. Manchester United are the mirror image: [A]Arsenal is the worst fixture in their next three, and [H]West Ham → [H]Liverpool follows. Buying Arsenal cover for Gameweek 3 alone is defensible; buying it to hold is not.

Read the last two columns first. The 3-round clean sheet column is a count, not a percentage: Newcastle's 1.06 means the model expects roughly one clean sheet from their three games, which is the third-best defensive run in the pool behind Chelsea's 1.36 and Manchester City's 1.15. Every team in the table plays exactly three times in this window, so the totals are directly comparable. The full grid is on the WSL market probabilities page, and the expected XIs behind these numbers are on predicted lineups.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 3

Anna Tamminen (5.0m, NEW) is the pick, and she is the pick on both timescales — 5.10 projected this week and 13.50 across the next three, the best goalkeeper number in the game on each. Her program is [H]Sheffield United → [H]Leicester → [A]Durham, a 46.2% clean sheet chance this week and 1.06 expected clean sheets over the three. At 4% ownership she is also barely picked.

Anneke Borbe (4.5m, ARS) is the cheap route into a good defensive fixture, with 4.70 projected against Manchester United and a 45.3% clean sheet chance. Be clear about what you are buying: her program is [H]MAN → [A]CHE → [A]MCI and she falls to 3.70 and 3.50 behind it, so this is a one-to-two round goalkeeper, not a season hold. Name the exit round when you buy her — Gameweek 5 is when you want to be out.

Olivia Clark (4.0m, LEI) is the set-and-forget alternative at the cheapest price in the position. Her [H]Ipswich → [A]Newcastle → [A]Sunderland run gives a flat 4.10 → 3.80 → 4.00, which adds to 11.90 with no week you have to plan around. That flatness is the argument: it is the cheapest way to stop thinking about goalkeeper for a month. Courtney Brosnan (5.0m, EVE) is worth a note for the same reason — only 3.90 this week on [A]West Ham, but 12.50 over the three as Everton's fixtures improve.

Defenders for Gameweek 3

Ellie Carpenter (7.0m, CHE) is the top-projected defender in the game this round, and the best three-round defensive total that comes with a settled starting role. Her program is [H]Birmingham → [H]Arsenal → [A]West Ham for 6.30 → 3.70 → 5.20, a 15.20 three-round total, and the model has her at a 0.52 clean sheet probability plus 0.24 expected assists this week. The Arsenal game in the middle is the soft spot, and it is priced in — two very good fixtures out of three is a clean buy.

Oliwia Wos (4.0m, BRC) is the value pick of the whole article. Her [A]Watford → [A]Burnley → [H]Southampton run reads 4.80 → 4.70 → 4.40 for 13.90 over three at 4.0m and 1% ownership. That is 1.20 points per million this week, the best rate in the position, and it is the pick that funds a premium forward.

Marisa Olislagers (5.5m, BHA) carries a 0.97 starter factor and three above-average fixtures: [H]Aston Villa → [A]London City → [H]Charlton for 4.60 → 4.00 → 4.90, and the Charlton game in Gameweek 5 is the best of the three. Amanda Nildén (5.0m, TOT) is the way into Tottenham's program from the back at 5.00 this week and 12.80 across [A]Crystal Palace → [H]Aston Villa → [H]London City. Both sit under 3% ownership.

Kerstin Casparij (8.0m, MCI) is the template defender at 36% ownership and she keeps earning it — 5.10 and 5.20 in the first two weeks of [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton → [H]Arsenal, with the Arsenal week the one that dips to 3.00. If you already own her, the case to keep is the first two rounds, not the third. Asmita Ale (4.5m, LEI) is the budget enabler behind her, 12.30 over the three on Leicester's [H]IPS → [A]NEW → [A]SUN.

One defender to buy next round rather than this one: Maya Le Tissier (6.0m, MAN) projects just 2.40 at [A]Arsenal, then 5.60 and 5.70 as [H]West Ham and [H]Liverpool arrive. Her 13.70 three-round total is top-three in the position and almost all of it lands after Gameweek 3. That is the clearest case in the game of the round ranking and the horizon ranking disagreeing, and the horizon wins — just not yet.

Midfielders for Gameweek 3

Lauren Hemp (8.0m, MCI) leads the position on both counts, 7.20 this week and 19.40 across [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton → [H]Arsenal. The trajectory is 7.20 → 7.50 → 4.70, so the Charlton away game is actually her peak, not this one — owning her through Gameweek 4 is the point of buying her in Gameweek 3. At 32% ownership she is a third of the field's pick rather than everybody's.

Olivia Holdt (7.5m, TOT) is the differential of the round. Her program is [A]Crystal Palace → [H]Aston Villa → [H]London City for 6.00 → 5.90 → 5.30, a 17.20 total with no bad week in it, and 3% of managers own her. That flat shape is exactly the kind that survives a rotation or a poor performance. Signe Gaupset (6.0m, TOT) is the cheaper version of the same bet — same three fixtures, 15.40 over the window, 0.92 points per million this week.

Samantha Tierney (6.5m, LEI) has the highest starter factor of any recommended midfielder at 0.97 and 14.50 across [H]Ipswich → [A]Newcastle → [A]Sunderland. Katy Watson (6.5m, SUN) is the horizon call in this position: 4.70 this week on [H]Southampton looks ordinary, but [A]Watford → [H]Leicester follows and her 15.30 three-round total beats several midfielders projected above her for Gameweek 3. If you are buying one midfielder to keep, she is better value than her round number suggests.

Two caveats worth knowing. Lauren James (7.5m, CHE) projects 5.80 into Chelsea's best fixture but carries a 0.63 starter factor, so she is a ceiling play rather than a floor one — and her program dips to 3.40 when [H]Arsenal arrives. Beth Lumsden (7.5m, NEW) has the same shape at 0.65, with a stronger run behind it at 15.40 over three.

Forwards for Gameweek 3

Khadija Shaw (12.5m, MCI) is the best asset in the game and the numbers are not close: 8.90 this week, 24.50 over [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton → [H]Arsenal, a 0.79 expected-goals figure for the round and a 92% share of Manchester City's penalties. At 63% ownership she is the template, so owning her does not win you anything — it stops you losing. The decisions that separate you from the field are the six or seven squad slots after her.

Mary Fowler (6.0m, MCI) is the best of those. She projects 7.30 this week — the second-highest forward number in the game — on the same [H]LIV → [A]CHA → [H]ARS program, at 6.0m and 8% ownership. That is 1.22 points per million, the highest rate of any recommended pick here. Her 17.60 three-round total is front-loaded, 7.30 and 7.00 before a 3.30 in Gameweek 5, so plan the exit rather than assuming she is permanent.

Madison Haley (6.5m, BHA) is the pick if you want the same class of output without the Manchester City price tag. Her program is [H]Aston Villa → [A]London City → [H]Charlton for 6.30 → 5.20 → 5.70, 17.20 over the three with no bad week, and she holds an 85% penalty share. Under 3% of managers own her. Kiko Seike (7.0m, BHA) is the partner pick on the same fixtures at 15.90 over three, and the Brighton attack is one of the most under-owned sources of points in this window.

Melvine Malard (8.0m, CHE) takes every Chelsea penalty and walks into the best fixture of the round at 6.20, but a 0.64 starter factor means she is a coin-flip to start. The program — [H]BIC → [H]ARS → [A]WHU — is good enough that the risk is worth taking if you want Chelsea attacking cover; if you want certainty, Haley at 1.5m less is the better buy. Rio Hardy (8.0m, BRC) is the outside option, on penalties with a 0.91 starter factor and 15.00 over [A]Watford → [A]Burnley → [H]Southampton.

Captain picks for WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3

Khadija Shaw is the captain. 8.90 projected against Liverpool at home is 1.60 clear of anybody else in the game, and the gap widens rather than closes next week — she is 9.50 at [A]Charlton in Gameweek 4 and 6.10 at [H]Arsenal in Gameweek 5, so she is the captain in all three rounds of this program. That is what makes her worth the price rather than the single week.

The alternatives are ranked and close together behind her. Mary Fowler at 7.30 is the armband if you want the Manchester City fixture without the ownership, and Lauren Hemp at 7.20 is the third option from the same match — both on the [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton → [H]Arsenal program, and Hemp is the one of the two whose number rises next week — all three are captaining the same 2.40 expected goals against a Liverpool side the model gives a 9.1% clean sheet chance. After that the board reads Ellie Carpenter, Alessia Russo and Madison Haley on 6.30 and Olivia Holdt on 6.00, which is a long way from a captaincy case. Gameweek 4's captain is Shaw again at 9.50, then Hemp at 7.50; if your captaincy plan needs a non-City option in Gameweek 5, Seike, Haley and Le Tissier all land on 5.70.

Who to sell before Gameweek 3

Hannah Hampton (5.5m, CHE) is the clearest sale, and the reason to do it this week rather than next is that this is her best week. Chelsea have the highest clean sheet probability in the round at 62.9%, and she still only projects 2.20, because the model has her on a 0.47 starter factor. If the single best defensive fixture on the board is not enough to get her past two points, [H]Arsenal → [A]West Ham behind it will not be — her three-round total is 5.70. She is owned by 53% of managers, so this is a real differential in the other direction.

Alessia Russo (11.5m, ARS) is the harder call, and it is a timing argument, not a fixture one. [H]Manchester United is a genuinely good fixture: 6.30 projected, Arsenal at 2.27 expected goals, and she has an 85% penalty share. But [A]Chelsea → [A]Manchester City follows and she drops to 4.40 and 4.90, giving her 15.60 over the window — less than Mary Fowler at half the price and less than Madison Haley at 6.5m. The round to move is this one, because both of those replacements are starting their own good runs now rather than in a fortnight. Mariona Caldentey (7.5m, ARS) is the same trade one position down: 5.20 this week, then 3.60 and 3.80 as [A]CHE → [A]MCI arrive.

Lucy Bronze (5.5m, CHE) is owned by 27% of managers and projects 4.00 into the best fixture in the game, which sounds fine until you put it next to her 9.90 three-round total and 0.59 starter factor. Carpenter and Katie McCabe are the Chelsea defenders the model expects to play the minutes; Bronze is the one whose number halves to 2.50 when [H]Arsenal arrives. The week to move her is the one where her fixture still makes her look good, not the week after.

One piece of advice in the other direction: if you own Manchester United assets — Maya Le Tissier, Jessica Park or Phallon Tullis-Joyce — you can wait a round on all of them. Their Gameweek 3 numbers are poor at [A]Arsenal, but [H]West Ham → [H]Liverpool is the best two-game stretch United have all month, and selling into the bad week is the one move that costs you both ends.

Where these numbers come from

Every projection here is the model's own output for WSL Fantasy, rebuilt each time the lineups, odds or squad data move. Compare the full pool on WSL Fantasy player picks, let the solver build the round for you on optimal teams for WSL Fantasy, check the expected XIs on predicted lineups, and look at the fixture run beyond Gameweek 5 on the WSL schedule. More rounds are in the WSL Fantasy preview hub. There is no Gameweek 2 preview for this game, so if you are starting from the beginning the Gameweek 1 preview and the WSL Fantasy guide to rules and strategy are the two places to go next.

FAQ

Who should I captain in WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3?

Khadija Shaw. She projects 8.90 points at home to Liverpool, 1.60 clear of the next name in the game, and she is also the top captain option in Gameweek 4 at Charlton (9.50) and Gameweek 5 at home to Arsenal (6.10). Mary Fowler (7.30) and Lauren Hemp (7.20) are the alternatives from the same Manchester City fixture.

Which budget defenders are best for WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3?

Oliwia Wos at 4.0m is the standout — 4.80 projected this week and 13.90 across [A]Watford → [A]Burnley → [H]Southampton, the best points-per-million rate of any defender in the game. Asmita Ale (4.5m, Leicester) is the next cheapest with a usable run, at 12.30 over the same three rounds.

Should I sell Alessia Russo before Gameweek 3?

Yes, and this is the round to do it. Her home fixture against Manchester United is good and she projects 6.30, but Arsenal then travel to Chelsea and Manchester City and she falls to 4.40 and 4.90 — a 15.60 three-round total that Mary Fowler beats at 6.0m and Madison Haley beats at 6.5m.

Best differentials for WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3?

Olivia Holdt (7.5m, Tottenham) at 3% ownership is the pick: 6.00 this week and 17.20 across [A]Crystal Palace → [H]Aston Villa → [H]London City with no weak fixture in the chain. Madison Haley (6.5m, Brighton) at under 3% and Anna Tamminen (5.0m, Newcastle) at 4% are the other two under-owned picks with three good fixtures.

Does anyone blank in WSL Fantasy Gameweek 3?

No. All 26 clubs in the WSL Fantasy pool have a fixture in Gameweek 3, across 13 matches from Friday 18 September to Sunday 20 September, so there is no blank to work around this week.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.