WSL Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 1 Preview

WSL Fantasy Round 1 preview: who to buy, captain and avoid

WSL Fantasy 2026/2027 kicks off on Friday 4 September, and Round 1 is the one week of the season where every manager starts from the same blank squad. You have 100.0m for 15 players — 11 starters, 4 on the bench, maximum 3 from any single club. Get the structure right now and the first month looks after itself.

Two rules make this game behave differently from Fantasy Premier League, and they are worth knowing before you pick anyone. The bench is not a passive auto-sub safety net: once a player's match has finished you can still move her out of your XI and bring on a substitute whose match has not yet kicked off. That makes bench quality a real asset, not an afterthought. And the captaincy is not locked at the Friday deadline — the armband can be moved between two players who have both not yet played, and only locks when your captain's own match starts. Captain someone who plays late in the round and you keep your options open all weekend.

Round 1 fixtures: two clubs stand out

The model's match probabilities split Round 1 cleanly. Manchester City and Chelsea are both home to promoted-level opposition; Arsenal travel to Brighton in the best game of the round. Everything else is close to a coin flip.

Look one round further and the picture shifts again. Manchester City open [H]Birmingham → [A]Aston Villa → [H]Liverpool → [A]Charlton, four fixtures at 71% win probability or better — comfortably the best opening block in the league. Arsenal's Round 2 at home to Crystal Palace is the single strongest fixture of the entire opening month (92% win probability, 4.05 expected goals). Manchester United are the opposite shape: a good Round 1, then Chelsea at home and Arsenal away. Check the full run on the WSL Fantasy schedule and the underlying odds on the WSL market probabilities page before you commit budget.

Goalkeepers: the cheapest one is the best one

This is the clearest position in the game and almost nobody has it right yet.

Anneke Borbe (4.5m, Arsenal) — 4.4 projected points, and she is the cheapest starting keeper in the pool at a 41% clean sheet chance away at Brighton. That is 0.98 points per million, the best rate of any goalkeeper. Ownership is 2%. Her six-round decay-weighted score of 15.4 is the second-highest of any keeper, so this is not a one-week punt — it is the enabler that lets you afford a 12.5m striker.

Courtney Brosnan (5.0m, Everton) — 4.3 for the round and the highest weighted six-round score of any keeper (15.7). Everton's opening two rounds are both winnable, and at 7% ownership she is still a differential.

Ayaka Yamashita (5.5m, Manchester City) — the highest clean sheet probability in the round at 48%, and the safest floor. She costs a full million more than Borbe for 0.0 extra projected points this week, which is exactly the kind of money a Round 1 squad cannot spare.

Defenders: pay for Chelsea, save on the rest

Ellie Carpenter (7.0m, Chelsea) — 5.5 points, 76 projected minutes, a 38% clean sheet chance and the highest six-round weighted score of any defender in the game (17.8). Chelsea's attacking full-backs carry real assist upside (0.22 projected assists this round alone), and the fixture run rewards holding her.

Maya Le Tissier (6.0m, Manchester United) — the most nailed defender on the list at 86 projected minutes and a 0.97 starter factor, with a 40% clean sheet chance at London City. At 39% ownership she is close to template, and the projection justifies it.

Kerstin Casparij (8.0m, Manchester City) — 5.3 points and the best clean sheet number of any defender at 44%. She is expensive for a defender, and in a 100.0m budget that matters, but City's four-fixture opening run is the argument for her.

Jayde Riviere (5.0m, Manchester United) — the budget pick that actually projects like a premium: 5.1 points at 3% ownership, with a 35% clean sheet chance. Only 3% of squads have her. If you want a Manchester United defender and don't want to pay 6.0m, this is the one.

Ashleigh Neville (5.0m, Charlton) — 4.5 points at 1% ownership, 74 projected minutes and a 26% clean sheet chance against a Liverpool side the model rates at only 1.35 expected goals. Her three-round total of 13.6 is better than several defenders costing 2.0m more. This is the single best value pick in the position.

One more worth naming: Fridolina Rolfö (5.5m, Manchester United) posts the highest single-round defender projection in the game at 6.6, driven by attacking output from a wing-back role. The caveat is real — her starter factor is 0.56, so the model is genuinely unsure she starts, and Rounds 2 and 3 fall away sharply (2.6 and 2.3). Treat her as a Round 1 play, not a season-long hold, and check the WSL predicted line-ups before the deadline.

Midfielders: one premium, then a wide open middle

Lauren Hemp (8.0m, Manchester City) — 6.9 points, the highest-projected midfielder in the game by a distance, with 0.26 projected goals and 0.42 projected assists against Birmingham. Her trajectory is the most stable in the pool: 6.9 → 6.5 → 6.7 → 7.0 across the first four rounds, a weighted score of 23.2. At 30% ownership she is not a differential, but at 8.0m she is the best value premium on the board.

Ceri Holland (6.5m, Liverpool) — 5.3 points at 3% ownership, and she takes Liverpool's penalties (an 0.83 penalty share in the model). Her weighted six-round score of 17.6 matches midfielders costing a million more. The most underowned genuinely good midfielder in the game.

Olivia Holdt (7.5m, Tottenham) and Signe Gaupset (6.0m, Tottenham) — 5.3 and 4.9 respectively, at 5% and 4% ownership. Spurs are home to West Ham with a 51% win probability, and both project 67+ minutes. Gaupset at 6.0m is the cheaper route into the same fixture.

Lauren James (7.5m, Chelsea) — 5.6 points and the second-best midfield projection this round, but the number to watch is 47 projected minutes on a 0.63 starter factor. The ceiling is enormous against a Villa side given a 4% clean sheet chance; the minutes are not guaranteed. A calculated risk, not a safe pick.

Ornella Vignola (7.0m, Everton) — the budget-conscious nailed option: 77 projected minutes, a 0.91 starter factor and 4.7 points at 2% ownership.

Wieke Kaptein (5.5m, Chelsea) — 4.6 points for 5.5m in the best attacking fixture of the round, at 2% ownership. Rotation risk is real (54 projected minutes), but as a bench slot that can be promoted mid-weekend under the rolling-substitution rule, that risk is much cheaper here than it would be in FPL.

Forwards: Shaw is the pick, and it isn't close

Khadija Shaw (12.5m, Manchester City) — 9.6 projected points, 2.8 clear of the next forward. She has 0.98 projected goals in a single fixture, an 0.84 penalty share, and City are home to a Birmingham side the model gives a 4% clean sheet chance. Her six-round weighted score of 32.0 is the highest in the game by nearly 8 points. She is 53% owned, so she is not a differential — she is a structural decision. Building a squad without her means finding 9.6 points a week somewhere else, and nothing in this pool does that.

Alessia Russo (11.5m, Arsenal) — 6.8 this round, but the reason to own her is Round 2: 9.3 projected points at home to Crystal Palace, in the best single fixture of the opening month. She is the most-owned player in the game at 56%, takes Arsenal's penalties, and her three-round total of 21.8 is second only to Shaw. Owning both premiums costs 24.0m of a 100.0m budget — which is precisely why the cheap goalkeeper and cheap defenders above matter.

Melvine Malard (8.0m, Chelsea) — 6.0 points with 0.54 projected goals, at just 11% ownership. She matches Vivianne Miedema's projection for a million less, and out-projects a far more popular team-mate by 1.8 points. The best value forward in the game.

Vivianne Miedema (9.0m, Manchester City) — 6.0 points on 58 projected minutes, with a weighted six-round score of 20.9. A strong third forward if you can afford her, though remember the three-per-club cap: Shaw, Hemp and Miedema uses your entire Manchester City allocation.

Captaincy: Shaw, and the armband stays flexible

The ranking is unambiguous:

Shaw is the captain. There is a second reason beyond the projection: Manchester City host Birmingham at 13:30 on Sunday, the last kick-off of the round. Because the armband only locks when your captain's own match starts, captaining Shaw means you can watch every other fixture in the round play out and still move the captaincy if something changes. No other high-projection player gives you that.

Hemp is the alternative if you don't own Shaw — same fixture, same late kick-off, same flexibility. Russo is the third option and the one to consider if you are planning ahead, because her Round 2 projection of 9.3 is the highest single-round number any player posts in the opening month.

Hidden gems: five players almost nobody owns

Round 1 ownership is still forming, and that is where the edge is. The template is already obvious — Shaw, Russo, Le Tissier, Casparij. League position gets won in the other eleven squad slots.

• Ashleigh Neville (5.0m, Charlton, DEF) — 4.5 points, 1% owned. The best price-to-projection ratio in the game.
• Anneke Borbe (4.5m, Arsenal, GK) — 4.4 points, 2% owned, and she frees up a million for your attack.
• Ceri Holland (6.5m, Liverpool, MID) — 5.3 points, 3% owned, on penalties.
• Jayde Riviere (5.0m, Manchester United, DEF) — 5.1 points, 3% owned, in the same defence as a 39%-owned team-mate.
• Signe Gaupset (6.0m, Tottenham, MID) — 4.9 points, 4% owned, 75 projected minutes.

You can see every player's ownership beside their projection on the WSL Fantasy player picks page, and dig into the per-round numbers on WSL player data.

Who to avoid in Round 1

Hannah Hampton (5.5m, Chelsea, GK) — the biggest gap between ownership and projection anywhere in the game. She is in 52% of squads and projects 1.9 points, because the model does not have her nailed as Chelsea's starter for the opener. Even in a fixture with a 46% clean sheet chance, that is a wasted 5.5m. Borbe costs a million less and projects 2.5 points more.

Agnes Beever-Jones (6.5m, Chelsea, FWD) — 29% owned, 4.2 projected points on 48 minutes. Melvine Malard, in the same attack and the same fixture, projects 6.0 at 11% ownership for 1.5m more. If you want Chelsea's Round 1 attacking points, buy the right one.

Chiamaka Nnadozie (5.0m, Brighton, GK) — 11% owned but Brighton host Arsenal with an 8% clean sheet chance. A tough opener for a keeper who will be a fine pick later.

Aston Villa and Birmingham City assets generally — 5% and 5% win probabilities, 4% clean sheet chances each. Both are away at the two most dangerous attacks in the division. There is no defensive pick worth making from either side this round.

Building the squad

The structure that the numbers point to: one premium forward (Shaw), one premium midfielder (Hemp), a cheap enabling goalkeeper (Borbe), and the remaining budget spread across nailed 5.0m–7.0m defenders and midfielders rather than a second 8.0m+ defender. Respect the three-per-club cap — it is the constraint most first-time squads break, usually by stacking Manchester City.

Because the bench is live rather than passive in this game, a fourth-choice player who might start is worth more than a guaranteed non-starter. Fill bench slots with cheap players who have a genuine route into an XI, not with 4.0m placeholders.

Our solver builds the mathematically optimal squad for the round against the live projections — see the optimal WSL Fantasy teams for the exact answer, and import your own squad to see how it scores. If you want to plan several rounds ahead before the deadline, the WSL draft planner maps it out.

FAQ

Who should I captain in WSL Fantasy Round 1?

Khadija Shaw. The model projects 9.6 points for her at home to Birmingham City, 2.7 clear of the next-best option, with 0.98 projected goals and an 0.84 share of Manchester City's penalties. There is a second advantage: City kick off last in the round on Sunday at 13:30, and because the armband only locks when your captain's own match starts, captaining Shaw keeps the decision open all weekend. Lauren Hemp (6.9) and Alessia Russo (6.8) are the alternatives.

Which players should I buy for WSL Fantasy Round 1?

Khadija Shaw (12.5m) and Lauren Hemp (8.0m) are the two premiums the numbers support. Melvine Malard (8.0m, 6.0 points at 11% ownership) is the best value forward, Ellie Carpenter (7.0m) the best defender over the opening block, and Anneke Borbe (4.5m) the cheapest starting goalkeeper with a 41% clean sheet chance. Ashleigh Neville (5.0m) and Jayde Riviere (5.0m) are the budget defenders that let you afford the top end.

Who are the best WSL Fantasy differentials in Round 1?

Ashleigh Neville (5.0m Charlton, 4.5 points, 1% owned), Anneke Borbe (4.5m Arsenal, 4.4 points, 2% owned), Ceri Holland (6.5m Liverpool, 5.3 points and on penalties, 3% owned), Jayde Riviere (5.0m Manchester United, 5.1 points, 3% owned) and Signe Gaupset (6.0m Tottenham, 4.9 points, 4% owned). All five project better than more expensive, more popular alternatives in the same positions.

Should I own Hannah Hampton in WSL Fantasy?

Not in Round 1. She is the most-owned goalkeeper in the game at 52% but projects only 1.9 points, because the model does not have her nailed as Chelsea's starter for the opener. Anneke Borbe costs 4.5m against Hampton's 5.5m and projects 4.4 — a 2.5-point swing and a million saved.

How many players can I have from one club in WSL Fantasy?

Three. That matters immediately, because Manchester City hold the top forward (Shaw), the top midfielder (Hemp) and the best clean sheet odds of the round. Picking Shaw, Hemp and a third City asset uses your entire allocation from the club with the best four-fixture opening run, so decide which third player you want before the deadline.

More Round-by-round analysis is in the WSL Fantasy preview hub, and if this is your first season, start with our WSL Fantasy guide to the rules, scoring and strategy. Penalty duties for every club are listed on the WSL penalty takers page.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool