Sofascore UCL Matchday 5: captain picks and best buys
Sofascore Champions League Matchday 5 preview: best buys, captain and differentials
Sofascore Champions League Matchday 5 is played on 24-25 November, with the deadline on the 24th. With one free transfer a week, this is not a round to pick for itself: the move you make now should still be paying in Matchday 6 and Matchday 7. So this preview ranks every pick on its next three fixtures, then narrows to Matchday 5. Matchday 4 is still being played as this is written, so the numbers below will move a little before the deadline. Check the live Sofascore UCL player picks before you confirm a transfer.
The short version: Real Madrid have the best attacking run in the league phase, Bayern München and Paris Saint-Germain are right behind them, and Arsenal have the best clean-sheet run. Several of the most-owned players are now poor value over the same window, and a few of them are this round's sells.
Matchday 5 programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning
Real Madrid's [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS is the best three-matchday run in the game at 7.98 expected goals. The Arsenal away game in Matchday 6 is the one to plan around, not to avoid: either side of it are two home games where Real Madrid carry a 79% and 86% win probability. Bayern München's [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN (7.05 xG, 0.98 expected clean sheets) is the most even run on the board, with the Slavia home game in the middle as its peak.
Paris Saint-Germain ([H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM) and Barcelona ([A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP) are close behind on attack. Barcelona's run has a clear dip in the middle, with Manchester City at home in Matchday 6. For defenders, the number that matters is the last column: Arsenal's [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET adds up to 1.05 expected clean sheets, the only run in the game above one. Bayern München (0.98), Real Madrid (0.93) and Atletico Madrid (0.89) follow. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like. The full fixture list is on the Sofascore UCL schedule.
| Team | Matchday 5 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD5-7) | 3-matchday xG | 3-matchday CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | [H]PSV | 79% | 3.10 | 38% | [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS | 7.98 | 0.93 |
| Bayern München | [A]LIL | 58% | 2.17 | 30% | [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN | 7.05 | 0.98 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | [H]ROM | 70% | 2.74 | 32% | [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM | 6.95 | 0.79 |
| Barcelona | [A]SFK | 72% | 2.70 | 36% | [A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP | 6.87 | 0.84 |
| Inter | [H]STU | 71% | 2.61 | 36% | [H]STU → [A]BVB → [H]LIV | 6.58 | 0.87 |
| Manchester City | [H]NAP | 68% | 2.49 | 34% | [H]NAP → [A]BAR → [A]RCL | 6.31 | 0.79 |
| Arsenal | [H]BVB | 70% | 2.36 | 41% | [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET | 6.09 | 1.05 |
| Atletico Madrid | [H]VIK | 55% | 1.96 | 31% | [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD | 5.62 | 0.89 |
| RB Leipzig | [H]RCL | 54% | 1.99 | 29% | [H]RCL → [A]MUN → [H]SHK | 5.60 | 0.81 |
| Liverpool | [A]CLB | 53% | 2.17 | 23% | [A]CLB → [H]POR → [A]INT | 5.45 | 0.71 |
| Napoli | [A]MCI | 14% | 1.08 | 8% | [A]MCI → [H]CLB → [A]SFK | 5.40 | 0.66 |
| Galatasaray | [H]AVL | 45% | 1.90 | 21% | [H]AVL → [A]AEK → [H]FEY | 5.31 | 0.62 |
Win probabilities and clean-sheet chances come from bookmaker odds, which you can compare on the Sofascore UCL market probabilities page. Expected minutes for every player are on the predicted lineups page.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 5
Jan Oblak (5.6m, ATM) is the keeper to own over the next three: 4.4 → 4.4 → 4.5 on [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD, 13.3 in total, with no dip in any of the three. Diogo Costa (5.5m, POR) matches that 13.3 on [A]FEY → [A]LIV → [H]SLP, and his best week is Matchday 7 (4.9). That makes him the better hold if you are buying one keeper and keeping him past this round.
Yann Sommer (5.1m, CLB) is the value option at 5.1m. Club Brugge host Liverpool and then go to Napoli and Stuttgart ([H]LIV → [A]NAP → [A]STU), and he projects 4.5 → 4.3 → 4.4 on a busy run with nailed minutes. For a cheap one-round pick, Nikita Haikin (4.6m, BOD) projects 4.5 on [H]LAS. He drops to 3.5 at Lens after that, so treat him as a rotation play to sell again for Matchday 6.
Best defenders for Matchday 5
Achraf Hakimi (8.0m, PSG) is the premium defender, and he is no ordinary one. He has produced 0.91 expected goal involvements per 90 over his last eight matches, attacking-midfielder numbers. His [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM gives 6.3 → 5.1 → 4.8, 16.2 over the three, the best total of any defender. The two away games are his low points, and his 4.8 at Como is still a good defender score.
Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) is the value counterpart: 5.0 → 4.7 → 5.7 on [H]VIK → [A]PSV → [A]BOD, 15.4 over three, second only to Achraf Hakimi and 2.5m cheaper. The trajectory peaks on the trip to Bodø/Glimt, so he is a buy-and-hold. The risk is rotation: he is projected for about 67 minutes, so check the predicted lineups before the deadline.
For a cheaper slot from Arsenal's clean-sheet run, take Ezri Konsa (5.7m, ARS) (4.7 → 4.1 → 4.3, 13.1) rather than Gabriel (7.5m, ARS). Gabriel projects more (14.5), but costs 1.8m more for 1.4 extra points over three. Both share the same [H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET program, with the Real Madrid week in the middle.
The budget defender of the round is Roland Sallai (4.5m, GAL), at 0.4% owned. Galatasaray's [H]AVL → [A]AEK → [H]FEY gives 5.1 → 3.9 → 4.6 on nailed minutes, and his 1.13 points per million this round is the best of any defender. He falls off in Matchday 8 (Paris away), so plan to move him on after three rounds. Tsuyoshi Watanabe (5.0m, FEY) ([H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL, 4.9 → 4.0 → 4.0) is the other sub-5.5m option with a front-loaded run. If you can wait a round, Gianni Stensness (4.1m, VIK) turns the other way: 3.7 → 4.9 → 4.8 on [A]ATM → [H]FEY → [H]PSV, a buy for Matchday 6 rather than now.
Best midfielders for Matchday 5
Lamine Yamal (12.6m, 55.8% owned) needs no selling: 9.1 → 8.2 → 7.9 on [A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP, 25.2 over three, the highest total in the game. The decisions that separate managers are the slots after him.
Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) is the best of them. Bayern München's [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN gives 7.2 → 7.7 → 6.6, and Matchday 6 at home to Slavia is his peak. That is a reason to have him in before it, not after. He has produced 1.28 xGI per 90 over his last eight, and at 10.1m he is the second-best midfielder over the window by 2.6 points over Raphinha (see the sell section).
Johan Manzambi (6.0m, AVL) is the differential of the round at 1.7% owned: 6.8 → 5.5 → 5.6 on [A]GAL → [H]PSG → [H]BVB. That is 17.9 over three, more than Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham or Désiré Doué, at 6.0m with a projected starter's role. Zlatko Tripic (4.8m, VIK) is the opposite shape. At 4.8m he projects 5.1 → 6.4 → 6.2 on [A]ATM → [H]FEY → [H]PSV. Matchday 5 in Madrid is the weak one, then two home games put him third among all midfielders in Matchday 6, behind only Lamine Yamal and Michael Olise. His 0.69 xGI per 90 is almost all chance creation. If your one transfer is going elsewhere this week, he is the natural Matchday 6 buy.
Maghnes Akliouche (5.1m, PSG) is the cheapest route into Paris Saint-Germain's attack. He projects 5.5 → 5.2 → 4.9 on [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM and 1.08 points per million this round, in the top five among midfielders. Arda Güler (7.6m, RMA) ([H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS, 6.2 → 5.2 → 6.4) is the mid-price way into the Real Madrid run. He is flagged out until 6 November, so he should be back well before the deadline, but his projected minutes (51) carry rotation risk. Jens Petter Hauge (5.6m, BOD) is a one-rounder: 6.4 on [H]LAS, then 4.1 at Lens. Only buy him if you plan to sell him for Matchday 6.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD5 | MD6 | MD7 | MD5-7 total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | BAR | 12.6m | 55.8% | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 25.2 |
| Michael Olise | FCB | 10.1m | 21.6% | 7.2 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 21.5 |
| Johan Manzambi | AVL | 6.0m | 1.7% | 6.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 17.9 |
| Zlatko Tripic | VIK | 4.8m | 1.2% | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 17.7 |
| Arda Güler | RMA | 7.6m | 4.6% | 6.2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 17.8 |
| Maghnes Akliouche | PSG | 5.1m | 1.6% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 15.6 |
| Jens Petter Hauge | BOD | 5.6m | 1.2% | 6.4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 15.1 |
Best forwards for Matchday 5
Kylian Mbappé (12.1m, 39.2%) is the premium forward to keep. He projects 8.1 → 5.8 → 8.5 on [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS: the Arsenal week dips, the other two are the best forward weeks in the window, and he has 0.89 xGI per 90 over his last eight. Between Erling Haaland (11.0m, MCI) (7.2 → 6.1 → 6.5, 19.8) and Harry Kane (11.2m, FCB) (6.5 → 6.9 → 6.1, 19.5), there is nothing to gain from swapping one for the other. Erling Haaland's [H]NAP → [A]BAR → [A]RCL is front-loaded and Harry Kane's [A]LIL → [H]SLP → [A]MUN peaks in Matchday 6, so own whichever you have.
The forward differential is Anis Hadj Moussa (5.5m, FEY) at 1.6% owned. Feyenoord's [H]POR → [A]VIK → [A]GAL gives 5.7 → 5.2 → 5.4 on near-full minutes, a flat line that is the definition of a hold. His 16.3 over three is more than Vinicius Junior at almost half the price. Nicolas Jackson (6.3m, AVL) ([A]GAL → [H]PSG → [H]BVB, 5.7 → 4.8 → 5.0, 0.45 xGI per 90) is the other 6m-range starter whose best week is this one. For a bench-level price, Peter Christiansen (4.1m, VIK) rises from 3.9 to 5.0 and 4.8 on [A]ATM → [H]FEY → [H]PSV.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD5 | MD6 | MD7 | MD5-7 total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | RMA | 12.1m | 39.2% | 8.1 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 22.4 |
| Erling Haaland | MCI | 11.0m | 23.9% | 7.2 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 19.8 |
| Harry Kane | FCB | 11.2m | 27.6% | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 19.5 |
| Anis Hadj Moussa | FEY | 5.5m | 1.6% | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 16.3 |
| Nicolas Jackson | AVL | 6.3m | 4.3% | 5.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 15.5 |
| Peter Christiansen | VIK | 4.1m | 0.5% | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 13.7 |
Our optimal teams for Sofascore Champions League solve the full squad live under the game's rules, so you can see how these picks fit together.
Matchday 5 captain picks
Captain Lamine Yamal. He projects 9.1 at Sabah, the highest of any player this round, ahead of Kylian Mbappé (8.1), Michael Olise and Erling Haaland (both 7.2) and Raphinha (7.0). Kylian Mbappé is the clear second choice with a 79% Real Madrid win probability at home to PSV.
Plan the armband across the next three, because it changes which premium to own. In Matchday 6, Lamine Yamal (8.2) still leads, with Michael Olise (7.7) the alternative, while Kylian Mbappé drops to 5.8 at Arsenal. In Matchday 7, Kylian Mbappé (8.5, home to LASK) takes over from Lamine Yamal (7.9). Owning Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise gives you a top captain in every round of the window.
Who to sell before Matchday 5
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (8.7m, PSG) is the first sale, and nothing is gained by waiting. He is out until 2027 in our injury data and projects zero in Matchday 5, 6 and 7, yet 11.1% of managers still own him. That 8.7m buys Michael Olise or Johan Manzambi plus change.
Ousmane Dembélé (11.2m, PSG) is next. He is flagged out until 17 November and projected for a short role on his return: 2.5 → 2.1 → 2.2 on [H]ROM → [A]AVL → [A]COM. PSG's run is good, but he is not the one to own for it. Do it now, because Matchday 5 is the first round Achraf Hakimi or Maghnes Akliouche can start paying on PSG's best fixture. Two PSG defenders are in the same spot: Nuno Mendes (15.0% owned) and Marquinhos (14.9%) project under 2 points in each of the three matchdays.
Thibaut Courtois (5.9m, RMA) is a sell at 25.2% owned. Real Madrid's run is the best in the game, yet their keeper projects only 3.1 → 2.8 → 3.0 on [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS. Matchday 5 at home to PSV is Real's best fixture and he projects 3.1, so there is no better week coming to sell into. Jan Oblak is 0.3m cheaper and projects 4.4 more over three.
Pau Cubarsi (6.7m, BAR), at 19.1% owned, projects 3.4 → 2.6 → 2.8 on [A]SFK → [H]MCI → [A]SCP. Matchday 5 at Sabah is his best of the three, and it is still only 3.4. City at home follows. Sell now, while the fixture is at its kindest, and use the money on Alejandro Grimaldo or Roland Sallai. Joan Garcia (16.0% owned, 3.6 → 3.4 → 3.5) is in the same position in goal.
Raphinha (10.2m, BAR) is the sale that costs you nothing this round. Sabah away is a fine fixture and 7.0 is a decent score. But he falls to 6.1 and 5.8 with City and Sporting next, and his projected 57 minutes carry rotation risk. Michael Olise is 0.1m cheaper, projects 7.2 in Matchday 5 as well, and peaks a week later. Waiting a round buys you nothing.
One you can wait on: Virgil van Dijk (24.6% owned) projects 4.2 → 4.7 → 3.3 on [A]CLB → [H]POR → [A]INT. Porto at home in Matchday 6 is his best week, so keep him through it and move him on before Inter away in Matchday 7.
Sofascore UCL Matchday 5 transfer summary
If you make one transfer: sell Khvicha Kvaratskhelia or Ousmane Dembélé if you own them, and bring in Michael Olise or Achraf Hakimi for the Bayern and PSG runs. If those are already sorted: Raphinha to Michael Olise is free value. Thibaut Courtois to Jan Oblak or Diogo Costa fixes the goal slot for three rounds, and Johan Manzambi, Anis Hadj Moussa and Roland Sallai are where the differentials are. Last round's picks are in our Sofascore UCL Matchday 4 preview, and every round is collected in the Sofascore UCL preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore UCL Matchday 5?
Lamine Yamal is the Matchday 5 captain pick with 9.1 projected points at Sabah, the highest in the game. Kylian Mbappé (8.1, home to PSV) is the alternative, and he takes over the armband in Matchday 7.
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Champions League Matchday 5?
Johan Manzambi (6.0m, 1.7% owned) projects 17.9 points over Matchdays 5-7, and Anis Hadj Moussa (5.5m, 1.6%) projects 16.3. Roland Sallai (4.5m, 0.4%) is the budget defender with the best points per million this round.
Should I sell Raphinha before Matchday 5?
Yes, if the money goes to Michael Olise. Raphinha projects 7.0 → 6.1 → 5.8 over the next three, while Michael Olise projects 7.2 → 7.7 → 6.6 for 0.1m less, so the switch costs nothing in Matchday 5 and gains 2.6 points over three.
Which team has the best fixtures for Sofascore UCL Matchday 5 to 7?
Real Madrid, with [H]PSV → [A]ARS → [H]LAS and 7.98 expected goals over the three. For clean sheets it is Arsenal ([H]BVB → [H]RMA → [A]BET), with 1.05 expected clean sheets.
Which goalkeeper should I pick for Sofascore UCL Matchday 5?
Jan Oblak (5.6m) and Diogo Costa (5.5m) both project 13.3 points over Matchdays 5-7, the best of any keeper. Yann Sommer (5.1m) is the cheaper option at 13.2.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.