Sofascore UCL Matchday 4: captain picks and best buys

Sofascore UCL Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Sofascore UCL Matchday 4 is played on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November, and the deadline is Tuesday at 17:15 UTC. The two big games are Atletico Madrid - Bayern München on Tuesday and RB Leipzig - Manchester City on Wednesday. Neither is a game to chase. The transfer you make before Matchday 4 has to pay over Matchdays 4 to 6, and Matchday 5 does not come until 24 November, so you hold whatever you buy for three weeks. Barcelona have the best three-round attacking run in Sofascore Champions League fantasy. Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Liverpool have the best defensive runs. Viking, PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund look much better this week than over the run. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell, using the model's projected points for Matchdays 4 to 6. Matchday 3 finishes on Wednesday night, so check the Sofascore UCL predicted lineups again before the deadline. Last round's analysis is in the Sofascore UCL Matchday 3 preview.

Matchday 4 to 6 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Barcelona's [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI is the best attacking run in the game at 7.25 expected goals, with 1.01 expected clean sheets. Aston Villa at home (65% win probability) and Sabah FK away (78%) are two very good fixtures. Manchester City at home in Matchday 6 is the one to plan around, not a reason to avoid Barcelona. Bayern München are second on 6.94, but the run turns late: [A]ATM → [A]LIL comes first at 41% and 52% win probabilities, then [H]SLP at 78%. Bayern's players are holds rather than urgent buys. Real Madrid's [A]AEK → [H]PSV → [A]ARS has two good fixtures (61% and 74%) before a hard trip to Arsenal (26%), which matters for timing and is covered in the sell section.

The best defences for the run are Paris Saint-Germain ([A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL, 1.08 expected clean sheets), Arsenal ([A]SLP → [H]BVB → [H]RMA, 1.05) and Liverpool ([A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR, 1.05). None of the nine fixtures in those three runs is a bad one. Arsenal have the best clean-sheet chance of any team this week, 42% at Slavia Prague.

Three teams are sell-into teams: a good fixture this week, then a collapse. Viking host Sabah FK at a 58% win probability, then go to Atletico Madrid at 12%. PSV host Club Brugge at 50%, then go to Real Madrid at 11%. Dortmund host Real Betis at 48%, then go to Arsenal at 14%. Their players are one-round picks at most. At the other end, Sabah FK ([A]VIK → [H]BAR → [A]VIL, 3.02 expected goals and 0.23 expected clean sheets), Slavia Prague (3.04) and AEK Athens (3.65) have the weakest runs. Aston Villa's [A]BAR → [A]GAL → [H]PSG (3.67 expected goals) is poor for attackers too.

The table shows the top 16 of the 36 teams, sorted by 3-round expected goals. The first five columns are Matchday 4 only. The last three cover Matchdays 4 to 6. All 36 teams have exactly three fixtures in the window, so there are no blanks or doubles to adjust for. Kick-off times are on the Sofascore UCL schedule, and the odds behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 4

Matvey Safonov (5.5m, PSG) is the goalkeeper to own for the run: 4.7 → 5.0 → 4.6 for 14.3 points from [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL, the best three-round total of any keeper. PSG have the most expected clean sheets in the game over Matchdays 4 to 6 (1.08), and the Roma home game in Matchday 5 is his peak at a 42% clean-sheet chance. The run holds up after that, with 4.5 and 4.9 in Matchdays 7 and 8. He is 9.5% owned.

Dominik Takac (4.0m, SBR) is the hidden gem again. Slovan Bratislava's [A]LAS → [H]BET → [H]SD is not a clean-sheet run, but Takac is projected for 3.6 saves at LASK and scores 4.7 → 4.6 → 4.9 for 14.2, only 0.1 behind Safonov at 1.5m less. He is the cheapest goalkeeper with a top-two projection this week, and only 0.4% of managers own him. Zion Suzuki (5.1m, AVL) is the other save-driven option: 4.3 → 4.8 → 4.6 for 13.7 from [A]BAR → [A]GAL → [H]PSG, with 4.2 projected saves at Barcelona, the joint-most of any keeper this round.

David Raya (26.8% owned) projects 4.1 → 3.9 → 3.7 for 11.7. That is less than Safonov or Takac, but Arsenal's run is good and he is not a priority sell. Courtois is a different case, covered below.

Best defenders for Matchday 4

This week's ranking and the three-round ranking agree at the top and disagree below it. Jeff Chabot (5.0m, STU) is the best defender this week (5.6) and over the three rounds: 5.6 → 4.6 → 5.2 for 15.4, then 5.1 and 5.1 in Matchdays 7 and 8. Stuttgart's [A]GAL → [A]INT → [H]LIL is not a good program and carries only a 13% clean-sheet chance in Galatasaray, so his projection does not lean on clean sheets. He plays a projected 86 minutes, has the best decay-weighted score of any defender over the five remaining rounds, and is owned by 0.2% of managers. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, he is the one.

Gabriel (7.5m, ARS) is the premium choice: 5.3 → 4.9 → 4.4 for 14.6 from [A]SLP → [H]BVB → [H]RMA, the second-best defender over the run, and 5.5 in Matchday 8 against Sabah FK. Arsenal carry a 42% clean-sheet chance in Prague this week and 1.05 expected clean sheets across the three. He is 13.4% owned. Pairing him with Raya doubles up on the same clean sheets, and the fixtures support it.

Maximiliano Araujo and Gianni Stensness show why the two rankings disagree. Araujo (5.0m, SCP) projects 5.1 this week, joint-third among defenders, but drops to 4.1 and 3.7 on [A]SD → [H]MUN → [A]ROM. Owners can keep him for this week, but he is not a buy for the run. Gianni Stensness (4.0m, VIK) is the best defender at 4.0m: 4.9 at home to Sabah FK, then 3.1 at Atletico Madrid and 4.2 at home to Feyenoord, for 12.2. He is a one-round pick on Viking's [H]SFK → [A]ATM → [H]FEY, and the right buy only if you need a cheap fifth defender this week.

Nico Schlotterbeck (6.0m, BVB) is the defender who rewards a long hold: 5.1 → 3.8 → 4.7 for 13.6 from [H]BET → [A]ARS → [H]INT, then 5.8 in Matchday 8 against AEK Athens. The Arsenal away game is the dip. Waldemar Anton (5.5m, BVB) follows the same line for less, 5.0 → 3.7 → 4.6. Lisandro Martinez (5.1m, MUN) is the flat option at 4.7 → 4.3 → 4.4 for 13.4 on Manchester United's [H]ROM → [A]SCP → [H]RBL, at 5.0% ownership.

Liverpool's defence is a program to own. Virgil van Dijk (24.8% owned) projects 4.5 → 4.1 → 4.4 for 13.0 and is a hold. Jérémy Jacquet (5.0m, LIV) is the cheaper route into the same 1.05 expected clean sheets: 4.3 → 3.9 → 4.1 for 12.3 on [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR, at 2.5% ownership.

Best midfielders for Matchday 4

Lamine Yamal is owned by 54.7% of managers and projects 8.7 → 8.5 → 7.4, the best three-round total in the game at 24.6, on Barcelona's [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI. Owning him is the template, not an edge. The edge is in the spots behind him.

Zlatko Tripic (4.6m, VIK) is the best value in the game. He projects 6.9 against Sabah FK, the second-highest projection of any player this round behind Yamal, and he is Viking's penalty taker. Viking's [H]SFK → [A]ATM → [H]FEY has a bad middle week, but he still projects 5.0 in Madrid and 6.1 against Feyenoord, for 18.0 over the three. That is as many points as Raphinha at less than half the price. He is 1.0% owned.

Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) is the premium midfield buy below Yamal: 6.2 → 6.1 → 6.7 for 19.0, the second-best midfield total, from [A]ATM → [A]LIL → [H]SLP. His best week of the three is the Slavia Prague home game in Matchday 6, so this is a buy that improves the longer you hold it. He is 21.3% owned. Raphinha (10.1m, BAR, 21.5%) projects 6.3 → 6.3 → 5.4 for 18.0 on 55 projected minutes and is a hold for owners. Only buy him over Olise if you want a second Barcelona attacker for the Aston Villa and Sabah FK games.

Bruno Fernandes (7.3m, MUN) is the penalty-taker pick: 6.2 → 5.4 → 5.7 for 17.3 from [H]ROM → [A]SCP → [H]RBL, with 0.33 expected goals and 0.21 expected assists against Roma. Both home games are good fixtures. Nico Paz (6.7m, COM) projects 5.8 → 5.9 → 5.1 for 16.8 from [A]RCL → [H]AEK → [A]BET, with the AEK home game in Matchday 5 as his peak. At 11.9% owned he is a fine hold.

Bradley Barcola (7.7m, LIV) is the steady differential: 5.4 → 5.5 → 5.6 for 16.5 on Liverpool's [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR, a rising line at 4.1% ownership. Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (5.4 → 5.6 → 5.1) and Martin Ødegaard (5.4 → 5.5 → 5.1) are close behind and both peak in Matchday 8 against Sabah FK, at 6.4 and 6.1. Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (6.0m, BET) projects 5.4 even at Dortmund and 15.6 over three rounds. Dominik Szoboszlai (7.5m, LIV) projects 15.7 but carries a fitness flag with a return date of 1 November, so check his status before you buy.

The budget pick is Gjivai Zechiel (5.0m, FEY): 4.5 → 4.7 → 5.2 for 14.4 from Feyenoord's [H]INT → [H]POR → [A]VIK. That is a rising line, and Viking away in Matchday 6 is Feyenoord's highest expected-goals fixture of the three. Only 0.2% of managers own him. Bodø/Glimt's midfield is a Matchday 5 play. Patrick Berg (5.5m, BOD) projects 4.7 → 5.7 → 3.9 on [H]LIL → [H]LAS → [A]RCL, and Jens Petter Hauge 4.2 → 6.0 → 3.6. LASK at home is the reason, so if you want them, buy for Matchday 5 and plan to sell again before Lens away.

Best forwards for Matchday 4

This week's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree in attack. This week, Florian Thauvin (6.0m, RCL) projects 6.3 against Como, ahead of Erling Haaland (5.9) and Harry Kane (5.4) and only 0.2 behind Kylian Mbappé. Over three rounds he is third on 17.3 from [H]COM → [A]RBL → [H]BOD, behind only Mbappé and Haaland. He is Lens' penalty taker, plays a projected 73 minutes and is 3.5% owned. The Leipzig away game is the dip, and Bodø/Glimt at home brings it back up.

Kylian Mbappé (12.0m, RMA) is the best forward over the run: 6.5 → 7.1 → 5.3 for 18.9 on [A]AEK → [H]PSV → [A]ARS. He has 0.58 expected goals in Athens, the most of any player this round. The Arsenal away game is his weakest week, but 8.0 at home to LASK in Matchday 7 follows it, so he is a hold through the dip. At 38.5% owned he is the template forward. Erling Haaland (10.9m, MCI) projects 5.9 → 6.3 → 5.4 for 17.6 from [A]RBL → [H]NAP → [A]BAR. He is Manchester City's penalty taker and has 0.52 expected goals at Leipzig. He is a hold for his 23.1% of owners, and Napoli at home in Matchday 5 is his best week.

The hidden gem is Anis Hadj Moussa (5.5m, FEY), with a rising line: 5.2 → 5.5 → 5.8 for 16.5 on Feyenoord's [H]INT → [H]POR → [A]VIK. That is within 0.2 points of Harry Kane over the three rounds at half the price, at 1.6% ownership. Nicolo Tresoldi (5.7m, CLB) is Club Brugge's penalty taker and projects 5.7 → 5.0 → 4.8 for 15.5 from [A]PSV → [H]LIV → [A]NAP. It is not a good program, but he holds up in it. Peter Christiansen (4.0m, VIK) is the cheapest forward worth a look this week at 5.5 against Sabah FK, but he drops to 3.9 in Madrid. He is a one-round pick.

Serhou Guirassy (8.0m, BVB) projects 5.7 against Real Betis, then 4.6 at Arsenal, so he is not a buy now. He is one to note for later, at 6.8 against AEK Athens in Matchday 8. Harry Kane (11.1m, FCB, 26.3% owned) projects 5.4 → 5.3 → 6.0 for 16.7 on [A]ATM → [A]LIL → [H]SLP. Those are two hard away games before an easy home game, and he is a hold, not a sell. Every player's projection is on the Sofascore UCL player picks page.

Captain picks for Matchday 4

Lamine Yamal (12.3m, BAR) is the captain. He projects 8.7 at home to Aston Villa, the top projection of the round by 1.8 points, on Barcelona's [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI. With the captain's points doubled, that is a clear gap. Zlatko Tripic (6.9 against Sabah FK) is the differential armband at 1.0% ownership. Kylian Mbappé (6.5 at AEK Athens) and Raphinha (6.3) are the template alternatives. Florian Thauvin (6.3) and Bruno Fernandes (6.2) are close behind.

The armband plan for the run is simple. Yamal is also the top projection in Matchday 5 (8.5 at Sabah FK) and Matchday 6 (7.4 against Manchester City). Mbappé (7.1) is the Matchday 5 alternative and Olise (6.7 against Slavia Prague) the Matchday 6 one. Mbappé takes over in Matchday 7 at 8.0 against LASK. Owning Yamal covers the captaincy for the next three rounds. More on the method in our guide to picking a fantasy captain.

Who to sell before Matchday 4

Jules Koundé (5.9m, BAR, 11.1% owned) is the clearest sell. He carries a fitness flag with a return date of 6 November and projects 0 for Matchday 4, then only 2.9 and 2.4. Barcelona's [H]AVL → [A]SFK → [H]MCI is the best attacking run in the game, so this is about him, not the fixtures. Why now: he scores nothing this round, and Chabot (5.0m) projects 15.4 over the same three rounds.

Willian Pacho (5.9m, PSG, 18.3% owned) projects 2.1 → 2.4 → 2.2 on 40 projected minutes. PSG's [A]VIL → [H]ROM → [A]AVL is the best defensive run in the game, so the fixtures are good. Why now: if you want PSG's 1.08 expected clean sheets, Safonov gets them at 14.3 points against Pacho's 6.7. Pau Cubarsi (6.8m, BAR, 19.2%) is a similar case at 3.0 → 3.0 → 2.5 on 55 projected minutes. Barcelona's fixtures are fine. Why now: [H]MCI in Matchday 6 is his weakest week, and Gabriel projects 6.1 more over the three rounds.

Thibaut Courtois (6.0m, RMA, 25.9% owned) projects 3.4 → 3.3 → 3.0 for 9.7. AEK Athens away and PSV at home are decent fixtures, with 32% and 34% clean-sheet chances, so this is not a bad stretch for Real Madrid. Why now: these are his two best fixtures of the run and he still projects only 3.4 and 3.3, and [A]ARS at a 15% clean-sheet chance follows. Safonov projects more in all three rounds. Josko Gvardiol (5.9m, MCI, 17.7%) projects 3.1 → 3.6 → 2.7 on 54 minutes. Why now: Leipzig away is a middling fixture, but Barcelona away in Matchday 6 at a 14% clean-sheet chance is the worst defensive week of City's run.

Ousmane Dembélé (11.2m, PSG, 14.5% owned) projects 3.8 → 4.2 → 3.9 for 11.9 on 40 projected minutes. The fixtures are not the problem. Why now: Thauvin projects 17.3 over the same rounds at 5.2m less, and that saving funds an upgrade elsewhere. If you already own Mbappé and Haaland, this is the forward move to make.

Matchday 4 transfer summary

The strongest moves are Koundé, Pacho or Cubarsi out for Jeff Chabot or Gabriel, and Dembélé out for Florian Thauvin or Anis Hadj Moussa. If you have a cheap midfield spot, Zlatko Tripic is the best-value buy of the round. Hold Yamal, Mbappé, Haaland, Kane, Olise and Raphinha. Differentials worth a look: Dominik Takac, Jeff Chabot, Zlatko Tripic, Gjivai Zechiel, Florian Thauvin and Anis Hadj Moussa, all under 4% owned. The optimal teams for Sofascore UCL show the solver's best squad for the round. All our previews for the game are in the Sofascore UCL preview hub. Our UCL fantasy tips guide and our explainer on expected points in fantasy football cover the method behind these numbers.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore UCL Matchday 4?

Lamine Yamal is the captain, with 8.7 projected points at home to Aston Villa, the top projection of the round by 1.8 points. Zlatko Tripic (6.9) is the differential option, and Kylian Mbappé (6.5) the template alternative. Yamal is also the top projection in Matchdays 5 and 6.

Should I sell Jules Koundé before Sofascore UCL Matchday 4?

Yes. Jules Koundé carries a fitness flag with a return date of 6 November and projects 0 points in Matchday 4, then only 2.9 and 2.4. Jeff Chabot (5.0m) projects 15.4 over Matchdays 4 to 6.

Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore UCL Matchday 4?

Jeff Chabot (5.0m) is the best defender this week (5.6) and over Matchdays 4 to 6 (15.4), at 0.2% ownership. Gianni Stensness (4.0m) projects 4.9 against Sabah FK as a one-round pick, and Jérémy Jacquet (5.0m) projects 12.3 on Liverpool's [A]FB → [A]CLB → [H]POR.

Who are the best differentials for Sofascore UCL Matchday 4?

Zlatko Tripic (4.6m, 1.0% owned) projects 18.0 over three rounds, Florian Thauvin (6.0m, 3.5%) 17.3 and Anis Hadj Moussa (5.5m, 1.6%) 16.5. Goalkeeper Dominik Takac (4.0m, 0.4%) projects 14.2.

Is Kylian Mbappé worth keeping for Sofascore UCL Matchday 4?

Yes. Kylian Mbappé projects 6.5 → 7.1 → 5.3 for 18.9 over Matchdays 4 to 6, the best total of any forward. Arsenal away in Matchday 6 is his weakest week, and 8.0 at home to LASK follows in Matchday 7.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.