Sofascore UCL Matchday 3: captain picks and best buys

Sofascore UCL Matchday 3 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Sofascore UCL Matchday 3 is played on Tuesday 20 and Wednesday 21 October, and the two headline games are Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona on Tuesday and Bayern München - Arsenal on Wednesday. Both are fixtures to plan around rather than chase, because the programs behind them matter more. With one free transfer a week in Sofascore Champions League fantasy, the move you make before this deadline has to pay over Matchdays 3 to 5, not just this round. Real Madrid and Manchester City have the two best three-round runs in the game. Dortmund, Roma and Aston Villa have strong fixtures this week, and all three runs fall away straight after. Raphinha misses this round and is the one big name to hold through it. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell, using the model's projected points for Matchdays 3 to 5. Last round's analysis is in the Sofascore UCL Matchday 2 preview.

Matchday 3 to 5 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Real Madrid's [H]RBL → [A]AEK → [H]PSV is the best attacking run in the game at 7.98 expected goals, and there is no hard fixture in it. Manchester City's [H]AEK → [A]RBL → [H]NAP is close behind on 7.48, with the best defensive numbers of anyone: a 65% clean-sheet chance against AEK Athens this week and 1.25 expected clean sheets across the three. Inter ([H]SD → [A]FEY → [H]STU, 1.04 expected clean sheets) and Liverpool ([H]VIL → [A]FB → [A]CLB, 1.01) are the other defences worth owning for the run.

Barcelona sit third for goals on 7.23, but their run starts with the hardest game of the week, [A]PSG at 38% win probability, before [H]AVL → [A]SFK. That makes Barcelona a program to own from now and a round to sit through, not a reason to avoid them. Two teams look much better this week than over the run. Borussia Dortmund go to Sabah FK with a 71% win chance and 2.51 expected goals, then face [H]BET → [A]ARS. Roma host Slovan Bratislava with an 85% win chance, then go [A]MUN → [A]PSG. Their attackers are one-round picks, and owners should plan the sale now (see below). Aston Villa are the same shape: [H]VIK at a 78% win chance, then [A]BAR → [A]GAL. At the other end, AEK Athens ([A]MCI → [H]RMA → [A]COM, 2.60 xG and 0.25 expected clean sheets) and Sabah FK ([H]BVB → [A]VIK → [H]BAR, 0.26) have the weakest runs in the game.

The table shows the top 16 of the 36 teams, sorted by 3-round expected goals. The first five columns are Matchday 3 only; the last three cover Matchdays 3 to 5. All 36 teams have exactly three fixtures in the window, so there are no blanks or doubles to adjust for. Kick-off times are on the Sofascore UCL schedule, and the odds behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 3

Diogo Costa (5.5m, POR) has the best three-round total of any goalkeeper, 5.3 → 5.1 → 4.8 for 15.2 points, from a program of [H]PSV → [H]NAP → [A]FEY. Two home games against sides Porto can beat make him a keeper you can buy and stop thinking about. He is owned by 7.5% of managers.

Dominik Takac (4.0m, SLB) is the hidden gem, and at 4.0m he is one of the cheapest keepers in the game. Slovan Bratislava's [A]ROM → [A]LAS → [H]BET looks poor on paper, but Takac is projected for 5.2 saves at Roma, and saves are where his points come from. His total rises after this week, 4.3 → 5.0 → 4.9 for 14.2, second only to Costa, and only 0.4% of managers own him. Gregor Kobel (5.5m, BVB) is the alternative on 4.9 → 4.9 → 4.2 from [A]SFK → [H]BET → [A]ARS.

David Raya (27.2%) and Thibaut Courtois (26.0%) are the most-owned keepers, and both are holds. Raya projects only 3.7 at Bayern this week, but [A]SLP → [H]BVB behind it lifts him to 4.6 and 4.4. Courtois is flat at 4.2 → 4.0 → 4.2 on Real Madrid's easy run. Neither is worth a transfer in or out this week.

Best defenders for Matchday 3

This is where this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree most. This week alone, Dortmund's defenders take the top three spots: Waldemar Anton projects 6.5, Julian Ryerson 6.4 and Nico Schlotterbeck 6.3 against Sabah FK. Over Matchdays 3 to 5 all three drop below Araujo, Grimaldo, Gabriel and Guehi, because [H]BET → [A]ARS follows. With one free transfer, buy for the run.

Maximiliano Araujo (5.0m, SCP) is the best defender over the three rounds: 6.0 → 5.3 → 4.3 for 15.6, from Sporting's [H]LAS → [A]SD → [H]MUN. Sporting have a 42% clean-sheet chance against LASK, and Araujo adds attacking returns too (0.14 expected goals and 0.16 expected assists this week). The risk is minutes. He is projected for 63, so he does not always finish games. At 1.1% ownership he is a real differential.

Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) is the steadier option: 5.0 → 4.1 → 6.3 for 15.4, from [A]STU → [H]FCB → [H]VIK, on 76 projected minutes. The Viking home game in Matchday 5 is the best fixture of his run, which makes him a buy that gets better the longer you keep him. Only 4.0% of managers own him.

Marc Guehi (5.5m, MCI) is the way into Manchester City's defence, 5.9 against AEK Athens this week and 14.7 over [H]AEK → [A]RBL → [H]NAP. At 9.8% owned he is less crowded than Josko Gvardiol (17.1%), who projects less (12.8) on fewer minutes. Gabriel (7.5m, ARS) is the premium. His program is [A]FCB → [A]SLP → [H]BVB. The 4.2 at Bayern this week is his weakest score, but 5.4 and 5.2 follow, and he has the highest decay-weighted six-round score of any defender. Virgil van Dijk (25.5%) is a flat 4.9 → 5.0 → 4.7 and a comfortable hold.

The budget pick is Archie Brown (5.0m, FB): 5.0 → 4.1 → 4.4 for 13.5 from Fenerbahçe's [H]SLP → [H]LIV → [A]SD, on 85 projected minutes and 0.4% ownership. The Liverpool game is the hard one, but two of his three fixtures are good.

Best midfielders for Matchday 3

Lamine Yamal is owned by 52.8% of managers and projects 8.7 → 9.3 → 10.0, the best three-round total in the game by more than 5 points. Owning him is the template, not an edge. The edge is in the spots behind him.

Nico Paz (6.6m, COM) is the best midfield buy below the premiums: 6.2 → 6.1 → 7.1 for 19.4, from Como's [H]MUN → [A]RCL → [H]AEK. The AEK home game in Matchday 5 is the strongest fixture of the three, and only Yamal and Michael Olise project more among midfielders over the window. He is 11.7% owned.

Bruno Fernandes (7.4m, MUN) is the penalty-taker pick: he takes an 82% share of United's penalties, and projects 5.9 → 7.0 → 5.9 for 18.8 from [A]COM → [H]ROM → [A]SCP. The Roma home game in Matchday 4 is his peak. John McGinn (6.0m, AVL), also on Villa's penalty list, is the cheaper option at 6.8 → 5.2 → 5.9 for 17.9 from [H]VIK → [A]BAR → [A]GAL, at 4.1% ownership.

The hidden gem is Zlatko Tripic (4.5m, VIK). Viking's [A]AVL → [H]SFK → [A]ATM is not a good program, but Tripic is on penalties (an 81% share) and the Sabah home game lifts him to 7.1 in Matchday 4. That is the third-highest projection of any player that round, behind only Yamal and Raphinha. He totals 17.8 over the three, more than Jude Bellingham, and only 0.3% of managers own him. Buy him for the run, not for this week's 5.4. Geny Catamo (5.5m, SCP) is the other cheap option, 6.7 → 5.1 → 5.1 from [H]LAS → [A]SD → [H]MUN at 0.9% ownership. Mason Greenwood (6.5m, FB) also takes penalties and projects 6.3 → 5.4 → 5.7 from [H]SLP → [H]LIV → [A]SD.

Dominik Szoboszlai has a return date of 17 October and is projected for 74 minutes, with 6.6 → 5.7 → 5.7 from [H]VIL → [A]FB → [A]CLB. If he trains this weekend he is a fine buy, but check the predicted lineups before the deadline.

Raphinha (10.1m, BAR) is the one to hold, not sell. He is out until 28 October and projects 0 this round. After that Barcelona go [H]AVL → [A]SFK, and he projects 8.2 in Matchday 4 and 8.7 in Matchday 5, the second-best midfielder in both rounds behind Yamal. Selling him now to buy him back for Matchday 4 costs two transfers. If you can field eleven without him, bench him and keep him.

Best forwards for Matchday 3

Kylian Mbappé (11.9m, RMA) is the best forward over the three rounds, 8.0 → 6.8 → 7.9 for 22.7, on Real Madrid's [H]RBL → [A]AEK → [H]PSV. He is also on penalties. At 38.5% owned he is a hold for most managers and the forward to buy if you have neither of the big two.

Erling Haaland (10.9m, MCI) projects 8.2 at home to AEK Athens, with 1.15 expected goals, the most of any player this round. He totals 20.6 over [H]AEK → [A]RBL → [H]NAP. The Leipzig away game dips to 5.8, but this is a run to own.

Serhou Guirassy (8.0m, BVB) joint-tops this round's projections at 8.7 against Sabah FK, on 82 projected minutes. His program is [A]SFK → [H]BET → [A]ARS, and the last two take him to 6.1 and 4.9. He is a one-round buy, best suited to a Quick Fix squad or to managers with a spare transfer who will sell him again before Matchday 5. He is not a long-term hold.

The differential is Florian Thauvin (6.0m, RCL): 6.2 → 6.2 → 5.4 for 17.8, from Lens' [A]CLB → [H]COM → [A]RBL. He takes 85% of Lens' penalties, plays a projected 76 minutes, and over the three rounds outscores Vinicius Junior (17.5) and Harry Kane (16.0), both of whom cost far more. Only 3.5% of managers own him. Every player's projection is on the Sofascore UCL player picks page.

Captain picks for Matchday 3

Lamine Yamal (12.2m, BAR) is the captain. His program is [A]PSG → [H]AVL → [A]SFK. He projects 8.7 at PSG, and he is also the top projection in Matchday 4 (9.3) and Matchday 5 (10.0). The armband should stay on him for the whole run.

Serhou Guirassy is the joint-top projection at 8.7 and the differential captain at 4.0% ownership, but only for this round. Erling Haaland (8.2, [H]AEK) and Kylian Mbappé (8.0, [H]RBL) are the other options, and Mbappé's 7.9 in Matchday 5 makes him the best alternative captain across the window. More on the method in our guide to picking a fantasy captain.

Who to sell before Matchday 3

The Paris Saint-Germain defenders are the clearest sells, and the reason is minutes, not fixtures. Willian Pacho (18.1% owned) projects 2.1 → 2.7 → 3.0, Marquinhos (17.5%) 2.5 → 2.5 → 2.7, and Nuno Mendes (19.0%) 2.8 → 3.6 → 4.1. PSG's [H]BAR → [A]VIL → [H]ROM is a respectable run with 0.92 expected clean sheets. But Pacho and Marquinhos are projected for fewer than 50 minutes each, and that does not change over the run. Why now: [H]BAR, with a 14% clean-sheet chance, is the weakest of their three fixtures, so selling now means you skip it. Araujo or Grimaldo projects more in all three rounds.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (8.9m, PSG, 14.8% owned) is the same story in midfield: 4.0 → 3.3 → 3.8 over PSG's [H]BAR → [A]VIL → [H]ROM, on 43 projected minutes. Why now: 8.9m in a player who projects less than Tripic at 4.5m is the most expensive inefficiency in many squads, and moving it before Matchday 4 lets you catch Tripic's or Bruno Fernandes' best round.

Harry Kane (11.1m, FCB, 26.9% owned) projects 5.8 → 5.0 → 5.2 from [H]ARS → [A]ATM → [A]LIL. These are not bad fixtures, just three solid opponents in a row, and Bayern's 5.70 expected goals over the run is mid-table. Why now: the transfer into Haaland lands on City's best fixture of the round (92% win probability against AEK Athens), and Kane does not reach 6 points again until Matchday 6.

Barcelona's defence is the last one. Pau Cubarsi (19.6% owned) projects 2.7 → 3.1 → 3.3 on 60 minutes, and goalkeeper Joan Garcia (15.9%) 2.5 → 2.9 → 3.0. Why now: [A]PSG is Barcelona's hardest game of the three, and neither player gets much better afterwards, so there is no better round to wait for. Yamal and Raphinha, not the back line, are the Barcelona assets to own.

Best Quick Fix (Free Hit) team for Matchday 3

If you are playing Sofascore's Quick Fix token this week, the squad that maximises Matchday 3 alone, inside the solver's spending ceiling and the three-per-club limit, is built around the four top projections: Lamine Yamal as captain, with Serhou Guirassy, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé up front. Aston Villa's John McGinn and Emiliano Buendia and Sporting's Geny Catamo fill midfield. The back line is Dortmund's Waldemar Anton and Julian Ryerson plus Sporting's Maximiliano Araujo, with Zion Suzuki in goal. That XI projects 78.0 points before the captain. Matchday 3 has no blanks or doubles, though, and Dortmund, Roma and Aston Villa all have one-round fixtures, so this is a reasonable week for the token rather than an obvious one. It is worth more in a round where your squad has missing players. The exact optimum, updated live, is on the optimal teams for Sofascore UCL page.

Matchday 3 transfer summary

With one free transfer, the best moves are a PSG defender out for Maximiliano Araujo or Alejandro Grimaldo, or Kvaratskhelia out for Zlatko Tripic, Nico Paz or Bruno Fernandes. With more room, Kane to Haaland lands the swap on City's best week. Hold Raphinha through his absence, and hold Raya and Courtois. Differentials worth a look: Dominik Takac, Maximiliano Araujo, Archie Brown, Zlatko Tripic, Geny Catamo and Florian Thauvin, all under 4% owned. All our previews for the game are in the Sofascore UCL preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore UCL Matchday 3?

Lamine Yamal is the captain, with 8.7 projected points at Paris Saint-Germain. He is also the top projection in Matchdays 4 and 5. Serhou Guirassy (8.7) is the differential option, and Erling Haaland (8.2) and Kylian Mbappé (8.0) are the alternatives.

Should I sell Raphinha before Sofascore UCL Matchday 3?

No, not if you can field eleven without him. Raphinha is out until 28 October and projects 0 this round, but he is back to 8.2 in Matchday 4 and 8.7 in Matchday 5, second only to Yamal among midfielders in both rounds.

Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore UCL Matchday 3?

Maximiliano Araujo (5.0m) is the best defender in the game over Matchdays 3 to 5, with 15.6 projected points from Sporting's [H]LAS → [A]SD → [H]MUN. Archie Brown (5.0m) projects 13.5 on 85 projected minutes for Fenerbahçe.

Who are the best differentials for Sofascore UCL Matchday 3?

Zlatko Tripic (4.5m, 0.3% owned) projects 17.8 over three rounds and peaks at 7.1 in Matchday 4. Florian Thauvin (6.0m, 3.5%) projects 17.8, and goalkeeper Dominik Takac (4.0m, 0.4%) projects 14.2.

Should I sell Harry Kane before Sofascore UCL Matchday 3?

He is a reasonable sell. Kane projects 5.8 → 5.0 → 5.2 over Bayern's [H]ARS → [A]ATM → [A]LIL. Erling Haaland projects 20.6 over the same three rounds, against Kane's 16.0, and costs less.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.