Sofascore UCL Matchday 2: captain picks and best buys

Sofascore UCL Matchday 2 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Sofascore UCL Matchday 2 is the first transfer decision of the Champions League league phase, and the question is not only who scores most on 13-14 October. It is which clubs have a run through Matchday 4 worth owning. Bayern München have the best three-round attack in the game, Arsenal, Liverpool and Inter carry the most expected clean sheets, and the availability picture shapes the round: Raphinha is out until after Matchday 3, Manuel Neuer projects only 30 minutes in Bayern's goal, Mile Svilar is out for Roma, and Alphonso Davies is the best defender in the game over the next three rounds. The numbers below come from the model run of 13 October and are all on the Sofascore UCL player picks page.

Matchday 2 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Bayern München's [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid is the best three-round attack in the game at 7.36 expected goals. The Viking trip is the single best fixture of the round (88% win probability, 3.78 expected goals), and the two big games behind it are the ones to plan around rather than avoid. Barcelona follow at 6.64 with [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa: a strong start and a strong finish either side of the trip to Paris. Real Madrid are third at 6.38, and both RB Leipzig at home and AEK Athens away are kinder than the Roma trip that opens the run.

For defenders, the program that matters is Arsenal's [H]Lille → [A]Bayern München → [A]Slavia Prague: 1.16 expected clean sheets across the three, the most in the game, with the best single clean-sheet chance of the round (55% against Lille) before the Bayern trip. That makes the Arsenal defence a buy for Matchday 2 and Matchday 4 with a planned dip in between. Liverpool ([A]LASK → [H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe, 1.13) and Inter ([H]Club Brugge → [H]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Feyenoord, 1.12) sit just behind, and Inter's two home games come first. Sporting CP are the surprise fourth at 0.93 on [A]Lens → [H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk. The full league-phase run is on the Sofascore UCL fixture schedule.

Two programs look better than their Matchday 2 fixture. Manchester City host Paris Saint-Germain (44% win probability) but then get AEK Athens at home, and Real Madrid go to Roma before hosting RB Leipzig. One looks worse: VfB Stuttgart are 74% favourites at Slovan Bratislava, then host Atletico Madrid and travel to Galatasaray, which makes Stuttgart a club to sell into rather than hold. All 36 clubs play once in each of Matchdays 2, 3 and 4 in the fixture data pulled on 13 October (18 ties per Matchday), so the totals compare like with like and there are no blanks to plan around.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 2

Josep Martinez (5.0m, INT) is the keeper to buy. Inter's [H]Club Brugge → [H]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Feyenoord gives him 5.4 → 5.3 → 4.6, and 15.3 over three rounds is the most of any goalkeeper. Only 2.1% of managers own him. Why now: his two best weeks are the two home games, and those are the next two rounds.

Diogo Costa (5.5m, POR) is a fraction behind at 15.1 with a flatter line, 4.8 → 5.2 → 5.1, across [A]Real Betis → [H]PSV Eindhoven → [H]Napoli. He is the better hold if you want a keeper you do not touch again before Matchday 5. David Raya (6.0m, ARS) is the template option at 27.2% ownership: he ties Martinez for the round at 5.4 against Lille, but 5.4 → 4.1 → 5.0 (14.5) on [H]Lille → [A]Bayern München → [A]Slavia Prague dips at Bayern München, so he is a fine keep but not a buy over Martinez or Costa.

Zion Suzuki (5.0m, AVL) is the short-run alternative: 5.2 → 5.2 → 4.2 on [H]Fenerbahçe → [H]Viking → [A]Barcelona, with the two home games first and the Barcelona trip last, so he is a two-round keeper to plan a move out of before Matchday 4 (14.6 in total). Nikita Haikin (4.5m, BOD) is the hidden gem at 1.5% ownership: 4.6 → 4.6 → 5.1 on [H]Borussia Dortmund → [A]Napoli → [H]Lille, then 5.5 in Matchday 5, so his program improves the longer you hold him. The cheapest keeper worth a look is Dominik Takac (4.0m, SLB), whose line rises 4.4 → 4.6 → 5.0 across [H]VfB Stuttgart → [A]Roma → [A]LASK (14.0); Alberto Brignoli (4.0m, AEK) has the best points per million this round (1.18) but falls to 3.8 at Manchester City.

Best defenders for Matchday 2

Alphonso Davies (5.6m, FCB) is the defender to buy. He has the highest defender projection of the round at 8.4 away to Viking, the best points per million of any defender (1.50), and 8.4 → 5.6 → 5.1 on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid adds up to 19.1, the most of any defender over three rounds. He projects 83 minutes and is owned by 11.3%. Why now: Viking away is his best week by some distance, and it is this one.

Gabriel (7.5m, ARS) is the second-best defender over the run at 17.9, on [H]Lille → [A]Bayern München → [A]Slavia Prague: 7.3 → 4.8 → 5.8, and the 5.8 at Slavia Prague is the best defender projection of Matchday 4. He brings goal threat on top of Arsenal's clean-sheet chances, so he is the premium defender to own if you are stacking Arsenal with Raya. Virgil van Dijk (6.0m, LIV) is the steadier route into Liverpool's program: 6.1 → 5.4 → 5.2 (16.7) on [A]LASK → [H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe. At 25.5% ownership he protects rank rather than gaining it.

This is where the round ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. Konrad Laimer (5.5m, FCB) and Jonathan Tah (6.5m, FCB) both score 7.0 at Viking, but Laimer falls to 3.9 → 3.1 and Tah to 5.0 → 4.3. Jeff Chabot (5.0m, STU) scores a little less this round and holds up better: 6.7 → 5.1 → 4.8 on [A]Slovan Bratislava → [H]Atletico Madrid → [A]Galatasaray, 16.6 in total, almost level with van Dijk for 1.0m less and owned by 0.1%. If you want a defender to keep, Chabot beats both of those Bayern options; Laimer is a one-round pick at best. Joao Cancelo (5.0m, BAR) sits just behind at 16.4 on [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa (7.0 → 4.4 → 5.0), with Aston Villa at home in Matchday 4 as the second good week.

The Matchday 3 plays come from Lisbon and Manchester. Maximiliano Araujo (5.0m, SCP) has the best defender projection of Matchday 3 at 6.2 against LASK, on [A]Lens → [H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk (4.8 → 6.2 → 4.8, 15.8), owned by 1.1%. Marc Guehi (5.5m, MCI) is right behind at 6.1 against AEK Athens on [H]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig (5.3 → 6.1 → 4.5, 15.9). Lisandro Martinez (5.1m, MUN) has one of the flattest lines in the position, 5.3 → 5.2 → 5.7 on [A]Atletico Madrid → [A]Como → [H]Roma (16.2), and the Roma home game in Matchday 4 is his best week. Alejandro Grimaldo (5.5m, ATM) is the longer hold: 6.1 → 5.2 → 4.7 on [H]Manchester United → [A]VfB Stuttgart → [H]Bayern München, then 6.9 in Matchday 5, owned by 3.9%. Rafa Marin (5.0m, NAP) is the defensive differential at 0.1%: 5.4 → 5.5 → 4.2 on [A]Villarreal → [H]Bodø/Glimt → [A]FC Porto.

For a budget defender, Tomas Vlcek (4.0m, SLP) scores 5.8 at Sabah FK on [A]Sabah FK → [A]Fenerbahçe → [H]Arsenal, 1.45 points per million, before dropping to 4.8 → 4.1. He is a filler to move on before Arsenal visit in Matchday 4. Lazaros Rota (4.0m, AEK) is the other 4.0m option at 5.5 in Shakhtar Donetsk, but [A]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Manchester City → [H]Real Madrid drops him to 3.8 in Manchester, so Vlcek is the better of the two. Check spot-kick roles on the Sofascore UCL penalty takers page before the deadline.

Best midfielders for Matchday 2

Lamine Yamal (12.1m, BAR) is the most important player in the game over the run, at 52.3% ownership. [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa gives him 11.8 → 7.5 → 9.3, 28.6 over three rounds, the most of any player, and the Aston Villa home game in Matchday 4 is the top projection of that round. Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) is almost level this round at 11.6 against Viking and follows with 7.3 → 7.2 on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid (26.1), second over the run. With Raphinha out, Olise is the natural second premium midfielder, and at 25.9% he is owned by half as many managers as Yamal.

Below the premiums, Nico Paz (6.5m, COM) is the value pick: 7.7 → 6.9 → 6.1 on [A]Feyenoord → [H]Manchester United → [A]Lens, 20.7 over three rounds, third among all midfielders, then 7.0 in Matchday 5. Bruno Fernandes (7.5m, MUN) has the rising line: 6.1 → 6.3 → 7.1 (19.5) on [A]Atletico Madrid → [A]Como → [H]Roma. He takes penalties and climbs to 7.1 in the Roma week, which is the shape of a hold rather than a one-week pick. Joshua Kimmich (9.0m, FCB) is the quiet premium differential at 3.4%: 7.8 → 5.7 → 5.6 on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid (19.1), with 85 projected minutes. Rayan Cherki (8.0m, MCI) is the Matchday 3 buy at 6.4%: 6.0 → 7.3 → 5.2 (18.5) on [H]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig, and the 7.3 against AEK Athens is among the top projections of that round, though 67 projected minutes cap the floor. Why now: his best week is next week, and buying him after it is too late. Luis Diaz (8.0m, FCB) is the round-versus-run split in this position: 7.9 at Viking, then 4.8 → 4.6, so Paz is the better buy for 1.5m less.

The hidden gems sit lower down. The cheapest strong program belongs to Zlatko Tripic (4.5m, VIK): 5.8 → 5.9 → 7.7 on [H]Bayern München → [A]Aston Villa → [H]Sabah FK, rising to the second-best projection of Matchday 4 behind Yamal (19.4 in total), owned by 0.3% and on penalties. Geny Catamo (5.5m, SCP) is owned by 0.9% and runs 5.9 → 6.6 → 5.4 (17.9) on [A]Lens → [H]LASK → [A]Shakhtar Donetsk, peaking in the LASK home game. John McGinn (6.0m, AVL) (4.0% owned) gives 6.1 → 6.6 → 5.2 on [H]Fenerbahçe → [H]Viking → [A]Barcelona and takes penalties, so he is a buy now, before his best week, though 71 projected minutes cap his ceiling.

For a pure budget midfielder, Aboubakary Koita (4.0m, AEK) scores 5.6 at 4.0m (1.40 points per million) on [A]Shakhtar Donetsk → [A]Manchester City → [H]Real Madrid, and holds at 4.8 → 4.9 after it, 15.3 in total. That makes him a genuine hold, not just a one-week filler. Danijel Sturm (4.1m, SLP) has the better single week at 5.8 and the best points per million of any midfielder (1.41), but falls to 4.1 by Matchday 4.

Best forwards for Matchday 2

Kylian Mbappé (12.0m, RMA) tops the position over the run at 21.4 on [A]Roma → [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens (7.0 → 7.6 → 6.8, then 8.1 in Matchday 5), with 84 projected minutes and penalty duty. His 7.6 against RB Leipzig is the top projection of Matchday 3. At 39.0% ownership he is the template forward and a clear hold. Serhou Guirassy (8.0m, BVB) is the best-value forward buy: 6.6 → 7.0 → 5.9 on [A]Bodø/Glimt → [A]Sabah FK → [H]Real Betis, 19.5 over three rounds, second among forwards, with his peak at Sabah FK in Matchday 3. At 3.9% ownership and 3.0m or more below the big names, the timing favours buying now, before the best week.

Harry Kane (11.0m, FCB) and Erling Haaland (11.0m, MCI) disagree on timing. Kane is the best forward of Matchday 2 at 8.3 against Viking, then 5.1 → 5.1 through Arsenal and Atletico Madrid on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid (18.5). Haaland runs 6.0 → 6.8 → 5.1 on [H]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]AEK Athens → [A]RB Leipzig (17.9), with the AEK Athens home game his best week. Over the run they are almost level, so if you own Kane, keep him for Viking; if you own neither, Guirassy gives you more over the three rounds than either for 3.0m less. Ousmane Dembélé (11.1m, PSG) is a keep rather than a buy at 6.2 → 6.2 → 5.7 on [A]Manchester City → [H]Barcelona → [A]Villarreal.

The standout mid-price forward is Florian Thauvin (6.0m, RCL): 6.4 → 6.0 → 6.0 (18.4) on [H]Sporting CP → [A]Club Brugge → [H]Como with 81 projected minutes and penalty duty, owned by 3.4%. Paulo Dybala (5.5m, ROM) is the Matchday 3 forward: 6.1 → 7.2 → 4.7 (18.0) on [H]Real Madrid → [H]Slovan Bratislava → [A]Manchester United, and the Slovan Bratislava home game is among the top projections of that round. Deniz Undav (6.0m, STU) is the one-round forward: 7.7 at Slovan Bratislava, second in the position this round, then 5.3 → 4.8 on [A]Slovan Bratislava → [H]Atletico Madrid → [A]Galatasaray, so sell him again before Atletico Madrid. For the budget slot, Suleiman Camara (4.0m, SLB) gives 5.1 → 4.8 → 4.8 on [H]VfB Stuttgart → [A]Roma → [A]LASK (14.7) at 1.27 points per million, the best of any 4.0m forward. Line-up news lands on the Sofascore UCL predicted lineups page before kick-off.

Matchday 2 captain picks

Lamine Yamal (12.1m, BAR) is the captain for Matchday 2 at 11.8, doubled to 23.6, on [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa. Barcelona's trip to Galatasaray carries a 74% win probability and 3.11 expected goals, and with Yamal at 52.3% ownership he is also the safe pick. Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) projects 11.6 against Viking and is the differential armband, owned by half as many managers, but [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid gives Yamal the edge from Matchday 4 on (11.8 → 7.5 → 9.3 against 11.6 → 7.3 → 7.2). Alphonso Davies (8.4) and Harry Kane (8.3) complete the realistic list. If you are weighing the Triple Captain chip, Yamal's 11.8 is the highest single-round projection of the next three Matchdays, so this is a defensible week to play it.

Plan beyond this round, because the armband moves. In Matchday 3 the top projection is Kylian Mbappé at 7.6, with Yamal (7.5), Olise and Rayan Cherki (7.3) just behind. In Matchday 4 Yamal leads again at 9.3 against Aston Villa, ahead of Zlatko Tripic (7.7) and Olise (7.2). Yamal is the one premium who captains first or close to it in all three rounds, which is the strongest reason to own him.

Who to sell before Matchday 2

Raphinha (10.1m, BAR) is the first sell. He is owned by 21.0%, is injured with a return date of 26 October, and projects 0.0 → 0.0 → 4.9 on [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa. Why now: he scores nothing in the next two rounds, and the money moves straight into Olise or Cherki, who both play this week.

Manuel Neuer (5.5m, FCB) is the new sell this week. 10.3% of managers own him, but the current projections give him only 30 minutes, with Jonas Urbig taking the larger share of Bayern's goal, and he projects 1.6 → 1.3 → 1.2 on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid. Why now: Viking away is the best goalkeeper fixture of the round and he is not projected to be on the pitch for most of it; Martinez does the job for 0.5m less.

Dominik Szoboszlai (7.6m, LIV) carries an injury flag with a return date of 14 October. 6.2% own him, and he projects 26 minutes and 2.9 → 4.1 → 4.3 on [A]LASK → [H]Villarreal → [A]Fenerbahçe. Why now: LASK away is one of Liverpool's best fixtures of the run and he is not projected to start it, and Florian Wirtz (7.0m, LIV) at 7.0 → 5.4 → 4.9 is the cheaper way into the same program. Alexander Isak (8.0m, LIV, 4.1% owned) is in a worse spot at 0.0 → 2.1 → 2.4 with a return date of 17 October, and Benjamin Sesko (5.5m, MUN, 4.3%) projects nothing until his return on 22 November.

Mile Svilar (5.0m, ROM) is the keeper to move on. He is 2.6% owned, out until 6 November, and projects 0.0 in every round of the run: Pierluigi Gollini is in goal for Roma in the current projections. Why now: there is no week in [H]Real Madrid → [H]Slovan Bratislava → [A]Manchester United where he scores.

Thibaut Courtois (6.0m, RMA) is the template keeper sell, and this is the round to do it. He is owned by 26.0% and projects 3.8 → 4.0 → 4.1 on [A]Roma → [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens. Roma away is not a bad fixture, but none of the three weeks gets him above 4.1, while Martinez for 1.0m less scores 5.4 and 5.3 in the next two. Why now: Inter's two home games are the next two rounds, so the switch pays from the first week. Joan Garcia (5.5m, BAR, 15.9% owned) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.0m, MCI, 14.4%) are in a similar spot at 3.4 → 3.1 → 3.6 and 3.6 → 4.5 → 3.7: Martinez or Costa beat both in every round of the run.

Jules Koundé (6.0m, BAR) is a sell on minutes, not fixtures. 12.0% own him, he projects 61 minutes this round and 3.7 → 2.5 → 2.9 on [A]Galatasaray → [A]Paris Saint-Germain → [H]Aston Villa. Why now: Joao Cancelo projects 82 minutes and 7.0 this round for 1.0m less, and out-scores him in each of the three rounds. Pau Cubarsi (7.0m, BAR) (19.6% owned) is the same story at 7.0m: 5.4 → 4.0 → 4.3, behind Cancelo in every round.

Marquinhos (6.0m, PSG) and Willian Pacho (6.0m, PSG) are the defensive sells nobody talks about. 17.7% and 18.2% own them, and [A]Manchester City → [H]Barcelona → [A]Villarreal gives them 3.5 → 3.9 → 3.8 and 3.8 → 4.3 → 4.2. Why now: there is no week in the run worth waiting for, and Chabot at 5.0m out-scores both in every one of the three rounds.

Jude Bellingham (9.5m, RMA) is the premium sell. 16.2% own him and he projects 6.4 → 6.3 → 5.7 on [A]Roma → [H]RB Leipzig → [A]AEK Athens, a gently falling line with no week to wait for. Why now: Bruno Fernandes gives you more over the three rounds (19.5 against 18.4) for 2.0m less, and that money moves into a Guirassy or a Cherki.

Riccardo Calafiori (6.0m, ARS) and Dayot Upamecano (6.0m, FCB) are sells, but you can wait a round on both. Lille at home is a good fixture for Calafiori (6.0), then the Bayern trip drops him to 3.3: 6.0 → 3.3 → 4.0 on [H]Lille → [A]Bayern München → [A]Slavia Prague. Viking away is Upamecano's best week at 6.3, and the two big games behind it drop him to 4.7 → 4.2 on [A]Viking → [H]Arsenal → [A]Atletico Madrid. Keep both for this round; the transfer belongs before Matchday 3, not now. 16.8% and 20.6% of managers own them.

Best Quick Fix (Free Hit) team for Matchday 2

Sofascore's Quick Fix token works like a Free Hit and can be played from Matchday 2. If you use it now, this is the squad that maximises Matchday 2 projected points within the club limit of three, captain Lamine Yamal. It leans on the Bayern and Barcelona away days and is a one-round squad by design: three Bayern players with Arsenal and Atletico Madrid to come is exactly what a Quick Fix lets you avoid holding.

Bench:

The starting eleven projects 101.1 points with the captaincy counted. The exact optimum, with your own price adjustments, is on the optimal teams for Sofascore UCL page, and the Sofascore UCL market probabilities show the betting lines behind each fixture.

There is no earlier preview for this game, so this one starts the series. More previews for the league phase will land in the Sofascore UCL preview hub, the Sofascore UCL player data page holds the season numbers behind the projections, and our fantasy guides cover strategy for the whole league phase.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore UCL Matchday 2?

Lamine Yamal is the top pick at 11.8 projected points away to Galatasaray, just ahead of Michael Olise at 11.6 against Viking; Yamal also has the stronger three-round run (28.6 against 26.1). Alphonso Davies (8.4) and Harry Kane (8.3) are the alternatives, and the captain scores double.

Should I sell Raphinha before Sofascore UCL Matchday 2?

Yes. Raphinha is injured with a return date of 26 October and projects 0.0 → 0.0 → 4.9 across Matchdays 2 to 4, so he scores nothing in the next two rounds. Michael Olise (11.6 → 7.3 → 7.2) and Rayan Cherki (6.0 → 7.3 → 5.2) are the natural replacements.

Who are the best differentials for Sofascore UCL Matchday 2?

Jeff Chabot (0.1% owned, 16.6 over three rounds), Serhou Guirassy (3.9%, 19.5), Joshua Kimmich (3.4%, 19.1) and Florian Thauvin (3.4%, 18.4) all carry strong three-round programs at low ownership, with Zlatko Tripic (0.3%, 19.4) the budget option.

Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore UCL Matchday 2?

Tomas Vlcek (4.0m, Slavia Prague) scores 5.8 this round at 1.45 points per million and is a filler to move on before Matchday 4, while Lazaros Rota (4.0m, AEK Athens) scores 5.5. Just above them, Alphonso Davies at 5.6m has the best points per million of any defender.

Should I play the Quick Fix in Sofascore UCL Matchday 2?

Only if your squad is short of players with a fixture this week, for example with Raphinha, Svilar or Neuer still in it. The best Matchday 2 squad projects 101.1 points in its starting eleven with Yamal as captain, but the Bayern-heavy core of that squad has Arsenal and Atletico Madrid next, so it is a one-round team by design.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.