RSL Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 3 Preview
RSL Fantasy Round 3 tips: captain picks, best buys and differentials
RSL Fantasy Round 3 is a short round. Only eight matches are played between Monday 24 and Wednesday 26 August, and the two strongest squads in the Saudi Pro League are in none of them: Al Hilal and Al Ahli both blank, then play twice in Round 4. The deadline is Monday 24 August at 16:35.
Everyone already owns the two big midfielders. Julian Quinones sits at 52.0% ownership and Joao Felix at 51.5%, so owning them is the template, not an edge. Round 3 is decided by the six or seven squad places after them - specifically by whether you take the 5.0m defenders in the best clean-sheet fixtures instead of a fourth mid-price midfielder. Every number below comes from our model's projected points for Round 3, refreshed on the morning of the deadline.
Round 3 fixtures that matter
Five teams are worth targeting. Al Nassr have the strongest fixture on the card by a clear margin, Al-Taawoun have the best clean-sheet odds, and Al Qadasiya's projection has climbed sharply since the weekend.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Nassr | [A]Al-Ettifaq | 74% | 2.76 | 37% |
| Al-Ettifaq | [H]Al Nassr | 10% | 0.99 | 6% |
| Al Ittihad | [H]Al Hazem | 62% | 2.15 | 35% |
| Al Hazem | [A]Al Ittihad | 17% | 1.04 | 12% |
| Al Qadasiya | [A]Neom SC | 60% | 2.13 | 34% |
| Neom SC | [H]Al Qadasiya | 18% | 1.09 | 12% |
| Al-Taawoun | [H]Al-Fayha | 60% | 1.88 | 42% |
| Al-Fayha | [A]Al-Taawoun | 16% | 0.87 | 15% |
| Al Shabab | [H]Al Riyadh | 55% | 1.90 | 33% |
| Al Riyadh | [A]Al Shabab | 21% | 1.12 | 15% |
Al-Taawoun's 42% clean-sheet chance is the highest of the round, which matters more than their modest 1.88 expected goals - the cheap route into this fixture is defensive, not attacking. Al Qadasiya are the other side to back: they produced 2.09 expected goals per game and a +1.00 non-penalty expected goal difference last season, and they have already generated 5.10 xG in their first two matches of this one. Full odds for every match are on the RSL market probabilities page, and each club's fixture run is on the RSL schedule.
Programme matters as much as this week. Al Nassr go [A]Al-Ettifaq at 74%, then [H]Al-Taawoun at 70%, [A]Al Ittihad at 58% and [H]Abha at 83% - the best four-round run in the league. Al Qadasiya are almost as good: [A]Neom SC at 60%, [H]Al-Faisaly at 62%, then [A]Al Diriyah at 71% with 2.55 expected goals. Al Ittihad and Al-Taawoun are the opposite shape. Both have a strong Round 3 and then fall away sharply - Al Ittihad host Al Nassr in Round 5 at 21%, Al-Taawoun visit Al Nassr in Round 4 at 12%.
Best captaincy picks for Round 3
Julian Quinones (12.0m, Al Qadasiya) is the captain. He leads the round at 9.4 projected points, he holds the highest six-round weighted score in the game at 28.9, and his 1.07 xGI/90 last season - 27.46 xG and 5.00 xA in 2,724 minutes - was the best return of any player in this preview. His line reads 9.4, 7.5, 8.5, 5.7, 8.9, 6.7 across Rounds 3 to 8, so he is the one armband you can set and leave alone for a month.
Joao Felix (10.6m, Al Nassr) is level with him for this week alone at 9.3, and he is 1.4m cheaper. He is also on penalties while Cristiano Ronaldo is out, with a 91% share, and his side have the best fixture on the card at 74% win probability with 2.76 expected goals against a defence that shipped 1.85 expected goals per game last season. Felix produced 0.84 xGI/90 last term (17.03 xG plus 12.07 xA in 3,100 minutes). If you own both, captain Quinones and vice-captain Felix - the gap is 0.1 points and the fixture edge sits with Felix.
Sadio Mane (9.0m, Al Nassr) is the differential armband at 7.5 projected points and only 8.0% ownership. Same fixture as Felix, 1.6m cheaper, and a 0.83 points-per-million ratio. Yannick Carrasco (9.0m, Al Shabab) is fourth at 7.4 - he takes Al Shabab's penalties with a 90% share and posted 0.88 xGI/90 last season, the second-best figure of anyone here. The full ranking for the round is on the RSL player picks page.
Best buys by position
Goalkeeper
Mailson (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the pick at 5.2 projected points, on the round's best clean-sheet odds at 42%. Mohammed Al-Mahasneh (4.0m, Al Shabab) is the budget answer: 4.4 points at the lowest price of any starting keeper in the game, which is 1.10 points per million - the best ratio in the position - behind a side with a 33% clean sheet chance at home.
Predrag Rajkovic (5.0m, Al Ittihad) returns 5.0 on 35% clean-sheet odds, but treat that with some caution: Al Ittihad have conceded 4.65 expected goals in their two matches so far, the worst figure of any of the target teams. For a keeper to hold rather than rotate, Ahmed Ali Al Kassar (4.5m, Al Qadasiya) is the best option - 4.4 this week and a 16.1 weighted score that never dips below 4.0 in six rounds, at 1.5% ownership.
Defenders
This is where Round 3 is won, and all four of the best picks cost 5.5m or less.
Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the standout. He projects 7.0 points - more than any forward and more than every midfielder except the four premiums - because he combines an attacking role (0.25 projected goals, 0.21 projected assists, 84 minutes) with the round's best clean-sheet odds. At 5.0m that is 1.40 points per million, the highest ratio of any player in the game this week, and he is only 6.4% owned.
Nacho Fernandez (5.5m, Al Qadasiya) is the better long-term hold at 6.6 this round and a 20.3 weighted score - 3.69 weighted points per million. He played 3,049 minutes last season, so there is no rotation risk. Gaston Alvarez (5.0m, Al Qadasiya) is the differential version of the same bet: 6.4 points at 4.5% ownership and 1.28 points per million.
Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, Al Kholood) is the most unusual asset on the board. He is his club's designated penalty taker with a 97% share, which is why a defender for a team with only a 32% clean-sheet chance still projects 6.3 points. His 20.2 weighted score at 5.0m is 4.05 weighted points per million, the best figure in the game, and he is owned by 2.4%.
Inigo Martinez (5.5m, Al Nassr) at 5.9 is the way to hold the best fixture run in the league from defence - 19.9 weighted, and Al Nassr kept 17 clean sheets in 34 matches last season while conceding just 0.86 expected goals per game. On a strict budget, Jehad Thakri (4.5m, Al Qadasiya) returns 5.4 at 1.20 points per million and Abdoulaye Seck (4.5m, Al-Faisaly) gives you 4.2 at 0.4% ownership.
Watch the cap. You may hold a maximum of three players from any one club, so Quinones plus Nacho Fernandez plus Gaston Alvarez is a full Al Qadasiya allocation - there is no room left for Mateo Retegui, Jehad Thakri or Mohammed Abu Al Shamat alongside them.
Midfielders
Past the four premiums, the value sits between 5.5m and 6.0m. Musa Barrow (6.0m, Al Khaleej) projects 5.8 at 0.97 points per million and an 18.0 weighted score, helped by a strong Round 6 home game. Josh Brownhill (5.5m, Al Shabab) returns 5.3 with 85 projected minutes and 0.96 points per million. Aschraf El Mahdioui (5.5m, Al-Taawoun) is the correlated pick: 4.8 points, 86 minutes, and a 0.38 clean-sheet projection that stacks on the same shutout as Mailson and Petkov. That is the double-up the fixture actually supports.
Moussa Diaby (8.4m, Al Ittihad) is a one-round buy rather than an investment. He projects 6.4 in the round's softest home fixture at only 3.7% ownership, but his line then reads 4.9, 3.7, 5.1, 4.1, 3.0 as Al Ittihad's programme hardens. Note that he is not on penalties - Youssef En-Nesyri takes them with a 75% share - so his ceiling is lower than the price suggests. Take the fixture, plan the exit. Kingsley Coman (8.5m, Al Nassr) at 6.1 is the third route into the best fixture on the card, and Musab Al-Juwayr (7.0m, Al Qadasiya) projects 6.1 but on only 55 minutes, so he is a rotation risk at that price.
Forwards
Abderrazak Hamdallah (8.0m, Al-Taawoun) leads the position at 6.8. He takes 96% of his side's penalties, he produced 0.87 xGI/90 last season, and his 21.9 weighted score is the best of any forward who actually plays this round. Youssef En-Nesyri (8.5m, Al Ittihad) is second at 5.9 with the penalties in the easiest home fixture of the round, but his 16.0 weighted score makes him a two-round buy at most.
Alexandre Lacazette (7.1m, Neom SC) is the best hold rather than the best score: 5.5 now, but 20.8 weighted and 2.92 weighted points per million, with a line that never drops below 3.6 across six rounds. Joshua King (7.5m, Al Khaleej) at 5.8 is on penalties with a 93% share.
For the cheap forward slot, Alexandre Mendy (5.5m, Al-Faisaly) is the pick at 5.1 points and 0.93 points per million - he is his club's penalty taker and returned 0.56 xGI/90 last season, at 5.4% ownership. Afimico Pululu (5.5m, Al Hazem) is a Round 4 buy instead: 4.7 this week, 6.5 next, 18.7 weighted. Avoid Abdullah Al Hamddan (5.0m, Al Nassr) as a starter this week despite the fixture - the model has him at 46 minutes.
Hidden gems and differentials
Ownership is still forming in this game, so the differentials are genuinely cheap rather than merely unpopular. These five all beat every player priced above 8.0m on points per million.
| Player | Team | Price | Ownership | Round 3 points | Points per million | 6-round weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marin Petkov (DEF) | Al-Taawoun | 5.0m | 6.4% | 7.0 | 1.40 | 18.7 |
| Gaston Alvarez (DEF) | Al Qadasiya | 5.0m | 4.5% | 6.4 | 1.28 | 16.7 |
| Shaquille Pinas (DEF) | Al Kholood | 5.0m | 2.4% | 6.3 | 1.26 | 20.2 |
| Musa Barrow (MID) | Al Khaleej | 6.0m | 2.7% | 5.8 | 0.97 | 18.0 |
| Alexandre Mendy (FWD) | Al-Faisaly | 5.5m | 5.4% | 5.1 | 0.93 | 17.0 |
At the premium end, Sadio Mane at 8.0% and Moussa Diaby at 3.7% are the two differentials with a real ceiling - both are in top-two fixtures on the card and both are owned by fewer than one manager in ten. You can hold two of the cheap defenders above and still afford both Quinones and Felix; let the solver confirm the exact split for your budget on the RSL optimal teams page, and compare the full pool on the player picks page.
Who to sell and who to avoid
Danilo Pereira (6.0m, Al Ittihad) is the clearest sell in the game. The model projects him zero minutes and zero points in every one of the next six rounds, and he is still owned by 18.3% of managers. Mohammed Al-Shahrani (4.0m, Al Kholood) is the same problem in the goalkeeper slot at 20.0% ownership - zero across the horizon. Both are dead squad places.
Moussa Dembele (7.1m, Al-Ettifaq) is the biggest fixture collapse of the round. He is 32.8% owned and projects 3.6 points, because Al-Ettifaq host Al Nassr with a 10% win probability and a 6% clean-sheet chance. If you need a transfer, this is the one to fund it.
Houssem Aouar (7.5m, Al Ittihad) projects 4.8 and then 3.4, 2.4, 3.0 - a 12.0 weighted score for a 7.5m midfielder. Said Benrahma (7.5m, Neom SC) is worse value at 22.0% ownership: 4.2 this round, 13.9 weighted, and only 53 projected minutes. Angelo Gabriel (6.2m, Al Nassr) is the wrong Al Nassr midfielder at 21.3% ownership - 4.4 points and 12.9 weighted, against Mane's 7.5 and 23.5 for 2.8m more.
One price note rather than a sell: Mateo Retegui (9.0m, Al Qadasiya) projects 5.0 this round even though he takes his club's penalties. His 20.2 weighted score is respectable, but if you only want one Al Qadasiya attacker, Quinones scores 4.4 more points this week for 3.0m more.
The Al Hilal and Al Ahli blank: hold, do not sell
Every Al Hilal and Al Ahli asset scores zero in Round 3. That is not a reason to sell, because both clubs play twice in Round 4 and those are the biggest single-round projections anywhere in the next six weeks.
| Player | Team | Price | Round 3 | Round 4 (double) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crysencio Summerville (MID) | Al Hilal | 8.5m | 0.0 | 12.0 |
| Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (MID) | Al Hilal | 9.5m | 0.0 | 11.5 |
| Ivan Toney (FWD) | Al Ahli | 12.0m | 0.0 | 11.5 |
| Karim Benzema (FWD) | Al Hilal | 10.0m | 0.0 | 11.3 |
| Mohammed Mahzari (DEF) | Al Hilal | 5.0m | 0.0 | 10.9 |
| Ruben Neves (MID) | Al Hilal | 9.1m | 0.0 | 10.5 |
| Yassine Bounou (GK) | Al Hilal | 5.5m | 0.0 | 9.9 |
Al Hilal visit Al Khaleej at 65% with a 40% clean-sheet chance, then host Al Ahli. They conceded only 0.73 expected goals per game across 34 matches last season with 16 clean sheets, and they have already produced 7.97 xG in two matches this season. Mohammed Mahzari (5.0m) at 19.8 weighted and 3.96 weighted points per million is the cheapest way to bank that double from defence, and Yassine Bounou (5.5m) is the equivalent in goal. Al Ahli's own double is fronted by Toney, with Trincao (8.0m) at 9.3 and Eduard Spertsyan (7.1m) at 8.5.
The same logic covers Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr), who is not projected to feature in Round 3 at all. His Round 4 to Round 8 line reads 8.6, 7.9, 10.3, 7.7, 10.6 - a 23.0 weighted score built on home games including Abha at 83% win probability and a 3.23 expected-goals projection. He is a Round 4 asset, not a Round 3 one. Check the RSL predicted lineups before the deadline if you are choosing between him and a forward who plays this week.
Best Round 3 squad, and what to do with Loan Rangers
The model's highest-scoring legal starting eleven for Round 3 is a 4-5-1 worth 87.5m, and it projects 87.7 points with the captaincy included:
| Position | Players |
|---|---|
| GK | Mailson (5.0m, 5.2) |
| DEF | Petkov (5.0m, 7.0), Nacho Fernandez (5.5m, 6.6), Gaston Alvarez (5.0m, 6.4), Pinas (5.0m, 6.3) |
| MID | Quinones (12.0m, 9.4, captain), Felix (10.6m, 9.3), Mane (9.0m, 7.5), Carrasco (9.0m, 7.4), Diaby (8.4m, 6.4) |
| FWD | Hamdallah (8.0m, 6.8) |
Filled out to a legal 15 with the cheapest playable bench - Mohammed Al-Mahasneh (4.0m) in goal, Mohammed Al Doseri (4.0m) at the back, plus two 4.5m to 4.6m forwards - the whole squad costs 99.6m, inside the solver's spending ceiling for the round.
Note what that squad does not need: the three-per-club cap is not binding on it. The optimal eleven with the cap lifted is exactly the same eleven, so Loan Rangers - the chip that gives you unlimited transfers for one round with no club restrictions - unlocks nothing extra in Round 3. Save it for a round where a single club's double or a fixture swing actually justifies stacking four or five of their players. Round 4, with two clubs playing twice, is the far better candidate. The live version of this squad for your own budget is solved on the optimal teams page.
Round 3 summary
Captain Quinones, vice Felix. Take one route into Al Nassr's fixture beyond Felix - Mane at 8.0% ownership is the cheapest edge on the board - and then spend the savings on two of Petkov, Gaston Alvarez and Pinas rather than a fourth mid-price midfielder. Clear the dead weight: Danilo Pereira and Mohammed Al-Shahrani project zero for six rounds and sit in almost one squad in five. Hold your Al Hilal and Al Ahli players through the blank and let the Round 4 double pay for it. Keep Loan Rangers in your pocket.
More analysis: our RSL Fantasy preview hub, the Round 2 preview, the season-opening Round 1 preview, and our fantasy football guides if you are new to the game.
FAQ
Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy Round 3?
Julian Quinones (12.0m, Al Qadasiya) is the model's top captain at 9.4 projected points, with the best six-round weighted score in the game at 28.9 and a 1.07 xGI/90 return last season. Joao Felix (10.6m, Al Nassr) is level for this round alone at 9.3, is on penalties with a 91% share while Cristiano Ronaldo is out, and has the better fixture at 74% win probability with 2.76 expected goals. If you own both, captain Quinones and give Felix the armband as vice. Sadio Mane at 7.5 and only 8.0% ownership is the differential option.
Which cheap defenders are best for RSL Fantasy Round 3?
Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the best defender on the card at 7.0 projected points and 1.40 points per million, helped by the round's highest clean-sheet chance at 42%. Gaston Alvarez (5.0m, Al Qadasiya) returns 6.4 at 4.5% ownership, and Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, Al Kholood) projects 6.3 because he takes his club's penalties with a 97% share - his 4.05 weighted points per million is the best ratio in the game. Nacho Fernandez (5.5m) is the safest long-term hold of the group at 20.3 weighted.
Should I sell my Al Hilal and Al Ahli players before Round 3?
No. Both clubs blank in Round 3 but play twice in Round 4, and those doubles carry the biggest projections in the next six rounds: Summerville 12.0, Milinkovic-Savic 11.5, Toney 11.5, Benzema 11.3, Mahzari 10.9. Selling to cover one blank and buying back for Round 4 costs a points hit and almost certainly loses points on net. If you have a spare free transfer, add cheap double coverage instead - Mohammed Mahzari at 5.0m or Yassine Bounou at 5.5m.
Who should I sell in RSL Fantasy Round 3?
Danilo Pereira (6.0m, Al Ittihad) and Mohammed Al-Shahrani (4.0m, Al Kholood) first - the model projects both zero minutes and zero points in all six of the next rounds, yet they are owned by 18.3% and 20.0% of managers respectively. After that, Moussa Dembele (7.1m, Al-Ettifaq) at 32.8% ownership projects only 3.6 with his side 10% to win against Al Nassr, and Houssem Aouar (7.5m, Al Ittihad) declines to 3.4, 2.4 and 3.0 over the following three rounds.
Should I use the Loan Rangers chip in Round 3?
No. Loan Rangers gives you unlimited transfers for one round with no club restrictions, but the three-per-club cap is not binding on Round 3's optimal eleven - the best legal squad and the best unrestricted squad are identical. There is nothing for the chip to unlock. Round 4 is the stronger candidate, with both Al Hilal and Al Ahli playing twice.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool