RSL Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 1 Preview

RSL Fantasy Round 1 tips: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems

RSL Fantasy 2026/2027 locks at 16:10 on Thursday 13 August, and that deadline falls before the very first kick-off of the Saudi Pro League season. Round 1 is spread over three days, so you are picking a squad before a single ball has been kicked. This preview covers the four decisions that matter right now: who to buy, who to captain, which cheap players free up the budget, and which popular names the projections have moved away from.

Two things have changed since the first team news landed, and both cost points if you miss them. The predicted lineups now cover every round 1 fixture, and they leave out several of the most-owned players in the game — including a defender owned by more than four managers in ten. At the same time Julian Quinones has moved up to the second-highest projection in the round, which changes the case for the most expensive midfielder in the game. Everything below is built on the current numbers.

Round 1 fixtures: where the points are

Al Nassr at home to Al Fateh is the best fixture of the round by a clear margin, and Al Hilal have the strongest clean sheet platform in the league against a promoted side.

Al Ahli's trip to Al Diriyah is the best road fixture of the round at 70%, and Al Qadasiya at Al Shabab is the next best at 60% — which matters because Al Qadasiya's two best assets are affordable relative to the Al Nassr and Al Hilal premiums. Below that, Neom host Al-Fayha at 56% and Al-Taawoun host Al Khaleej at 52% — the best fixture available at genuinely cheap prices. The season opens with Al Hazem at Abha on Thursday evening, and that one is close to a coin flip at 36% each way, so there is no cheap edge in it. Every kick-off time and the full 34-round program is on the RSL Fantasy schedule page, and the win, draw and clean sheet inputs behind the table above are on the RSL market probabilities page.

One planning note that should shape the squad you build today: Al Hilal and Al Ahli both blank in round 3 and then play twice in round 4. Al Hilal get [A]Al Khaleej and [H]Al Ahli; Al Ahli get [A]Al Kholood and [A]Al Hilal. Their assets are therefore worth a great deal in three weeks and awkward in two. Al Nassr have no such gap — [A]Al Riyadh at 70% in round 2 and [A]Al-Ettifaq at 68% in round 3 — which is the quiet argument for building the core of the squad there.

Goalkeepers: the cheap route is the good route

Yassine Bounou (5.5m, Al Hilal) is the top-projected keeper for round 1 on 5.3 xP, and the reason is the 53% clean sheet chance at home to Al-Faisaly — the highest in the round behind the league's best defensive projection. He is also the most-owned keeper in the game at 36.0%, so this is the safe route rather than the clever one, and his round 3 is a blank.

Marcin Bulka (4.5m, Neom SC) projects 5.1 xP for a full million less, behind a 39% clean sheet chance against Al-Fayha. He has a fixture in every one of the opening six rounds, and the saving is exactly what funds a second premium midfielder. At 14.9% ownership he is the best-value pick in the position.

Bento Krepski (5.5m, Al Nassr) is the option for anyone who would rather not plan around a blank: 5.0 xP now, a 48% clean sheet chance, and a six-round decay-weighted score of 16.8 that is the steadiest in the position. Predrag Rajkovic (5.0m, Al Ittihad) is a reasonable fourth option on 4.8 xP. Avoid Koen Casteels (5.5m) and Milan Borjan (4.5m) — both are projected as shared roles rather than nailed starters, and between them they are owned by a quarter of the game.

Defenders: a 5.0m outlier and a genuine budget gem

Mohammed Mahzari (5.0m, Al Hilal) is the standout defensive projection of round 1 at 7.6 xP. That is higher than any other defender in the game and it comes with the best points-per-million figure of any outfield player at 1.52. The model has him contributing from the front as well as the back — 0.25 expected assists on top of a 48% clean sheet chance — and his round 4 double is worth 11.2 xP on its own. Only 14.3% of managers have him.

Mohammed Abu Al Shamat (6.5m, Al Qadasiya) is the most complete defensive pick over the planning horizon: 6.5 xP now, no blank anywhere in the opening six rounds, and a weighted score of 20.9 that is the best of any defender. His 0.27 expected assists for the round is an attacking return most centre-backs cannot match, and at 26.3% he is already a semi-template pick rather than a differential.

Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the same idea a million cheaper. He is listed as a defender but carries 0.26 expected goals and 0.19 expected assists for round 1, which is why he outscores centre-backs costing more. The trajectory is 6.2 → 5.4 → 6.7 over the first three rounds for a weighted score of 20.4, so this is not a one-week fixture punt. 6.2% ownership.

Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, Al Hilal) is the cleanest way to buy the round's best clean sheet odds: 6.2 xP, a 50% clean sheet chance, a points-per-million of 1.24, and 13.8% ownership. Pairing him with Bounou doubles up on the same clean sheet, which is a correlation worth having when the fixture is this strong — just be aware you are doubling up on the round 3 blank too.

Mohamed Simakan (6.5m, Al Nassr) at 6.5 xP and Nawaf Al-Boushail (5.0m, Al Nassr) at 6.1 xP are the alternatives with no fixture gap at all. And for the budget slot, Ayman Yahya (5.0m, Al Nassr) is the pick almost nobody has: 5.8 xP, a 40% clean sheet chance, a points-per-million of 1.16, and 0.8% ownership. He is in Al Nassr's predicted eleven, which is what separates him from the rest of the cheap defenders. Deeper still, Abdulaziz Al Khanani (4.0m, Neom SC) projects 4.3 xP as a playing fifth defender rather than a placeholder.

Midfielders: the Al Nassr core, and the premium that has moved

Joao Félix (10.5m, Al Nassr) is the highest projection in the game at 11.8 xP and he takes Al Nassr's penalties on a 0.97 share. In a fixture where his side is expected to score 3.26 goals, that combination is worth more than the price gap to anyone else. His own numbers for the round are 0.93 expected goals and 0.49 expected assists, and his weighted score of 33.1 is the highest of any player over six rounds. At 40.0% ownership he is closer to essential than clever.

Julian Quinones (12.0m, Al Qadasiya) is the second-highest projection in the round at 9.4 xP, on 0.75 expected goals away at Al Shabab. He is the most expensive midfielder in the game and the most-owned player at 46.8%, and his case is the six-round picture rather than this weekend alone: 9.4 → 9.6 → 8.4 with no blank, for a weighted score of 32.7 that is second only to Félix. His round 3 projection of 8.4 holds up in a week when Al Hilal and Al Ahli have no fixture at all, which is the strongest single argument for paying up here.

Sadio Mané (9.0m, Al Nassr) is the buy of the week. He projects 9.2 xP, he is in the predicted eleven, and only 8.4% of managers own him. His 0.58 expected goals and 0.44 expected assists for the round are the second-best attacking pair in the game, and a weighted score of 27.4 says this holds up well beyond the opener. This is the pick that separates you from the field.

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (9.5m, Al Hilal) is the other under-owned premium at 7.0%: 8.9 xP now, 0.54 expected goals from midfield, and a 13.3 xP round 4 double that is the single biggest one-round number anywhere in the opening six rounds. He blanks in round 3, so buy him knowing the plan. Kingsley Coman (8.5m, Al Nassr) completes the Al Nassr block at 8.3 xP and 0.47 expected assists — and with the three-per-club cap, Félix, Mané and Coman is a legal and very strong core.

Now the cheap names, which is where round 1 leagues are actually won. Sultan Mandash (6.0m, Al Hilal) is the biggest mispricing in the game: 7.3 xP, a points-per-million of 1.22, 0.36 expected goals and 0.34 expected assists, in Al Hilal's predicted eleven — and owned by 0.9%. Youssouf Oumarou (4.5m, Al Hazem) is the best ratio of any midfielder at 1.29 points per million on 5.8 xP, plays 89 minutes, is named as a starter by three separate lineup sources, and is owned by 0.1%. His fixture at Abha is a coin flip, and that is exactly why nobody is looking.

Two more effectively unowned starters if you need a fifth midfielder: Ondrej Duda (5.0m, Al-Ettifaq) at 5.1 xP with a 17.2 weighted score that never dips, and Amadou Koné (5.5m, Neom SC) at 5.5 xP behind Neom's 39% clean sheet chance. Moussa Diaby (8.5m, Al Ittihad) on 6.7 xP is the best mid-price option outside the two leading clubs.

Forwards: Benzema has overtaken the field

Karim Benzema (10.0m, Al Hilal) is now the top-projected forward for round 1 at 9.3 xP, on 0.76 expected goals against Al-Faisaly. He is 2.0m cheaper than the alternative at the top of the position and his round 4 double is worth 10.7 xP. The round 3 blank is the cost of owning him, and 25.3% of managers are paying it.

Ivan Toney (12.0m, Al Ahli) is the better six-round hold: 8.9 xP now, 9.8 in round 2, an 11.7 xP round 4 double, and a weighted score of 28.0 that leads all forwards. He takes penalties on a 0.93 share. At 38.8% owned he is a floor pick rather than an edge, but at this price point he is the right one.

Abdullah Al Hamddan (5.0m, Al Nassr) is the value play of the entire game: 6.7 xP for 5.0m is a points-per-million of 1.34, the best of any forward, and he is in Al Nassr's predicted eleven with 0.53 expected goals for the round. He projects more than forwards costing three times as much, and 6.2% of managers have him.

If you need a third striker, Youssef En-Nesyri (8.5m, Al Ittihad) projects 6.5 xP on penalty duties, and Leandro Antunes (6.0m, Al Riyadh) is 5.3 xP with a 0.93 penalty share at 2.4% ownership — remarkable for a side with a 29% win probability. Mateo Retegui (9.0m, Al Qadasiya) on 6.0 xP is the safer premium third option. Confirm any of the cheap ones on the RSL predicted lineups before the deadline, because that is where the last hour of team news lands.

Captain picks for RSL Fantasy round 1

Captain Joao Félix. He is the top projection at 11.8 xP, he is on penalties, and Al Nassr are at home with a 3.26 expected-goal projection and an 85% win probability. The gap to second place is 2.4 points, which is wide enough that no other pick is defensible on ceiling alone.

Julian Quinones (9.4 xP) is the second choice, and Karim Benzema (9.3 xP) the third. Below them Sadio Mané (9.2 xP at 8.4% ownership) is the genuine differential armband, and Ivan Toney (8.9) and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (8.9) round out the realistic set. One timing note: Félix, Quinones and Toney all play on different days, so if you want the option to react, note that Al Qadasiya and Al Ahli play Thursday while Al Nassr do not play until Saturday evening.

Who to sell or avoid in round 1

Theo Hernández (6.5m, Al Hilal) is the most important name on this list. He is owned by 42.3% of managers — more than any defender in the game — and projects 4.5 xP for round 1, against 6.2 for Koulibaly at 1.5m less from the same defence and the same clean sheet. If you want Al Hilal cover at the back, buy the cheaper one.

Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr) is not projected to feature in round 1 and scores 0.0 xP. Nearly a fifth of managers own him, and at 12.5m that is an eighth of the budget sitting idle in the opening week. The important change is what comes next: he projects 8.4 in round 2, 8.5 in round 3 and 10.1 in round 6, for a weighted score of 22.1. So this is a clear buy next round rather than a write-off — just not a round 1 pick.

Crysencio Summerville (8.5m), Joao Cancelo (6.0m) and Edouard Mendy (5.5m) are the other well-owned names with nothing projected for the opener — 26.0%, 13.5% and 19.8% ownership respectively. Nacho Fernandez (5.5m, Al Qadasiya) at 25.7% ownership projects 2.3 xP, and Said Benrahma (7.5m, Neom SC) at 24.7% is on 4.7 xP from a projected 60 minutes.

Abderrazak Hamdallah (8.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the one to move on from rather than merely leave out. He is owned by 27.0%, projects 4.2 xP this week, and his program collapses straight after: 2.0 in round 2 and 1.6 in round 3, for a weighted score of 7.8 that is the worst of any premium forward. At the same price Youssef En-Nesyri is worth more than twice as much over the horizon.

Two to buy next round instead of now. Mourad Batna (7.5m, Al Fateh) projects only 4.0 xP away at Al Nassr this week but 8.5 in round 2 and 9.3 in round 6, for a weighted score of 24.1, and he takes penalties on a 0.93 share. Yannick Carrasco (9.0m, Al Shabab) is 5.4 now and 8.3 in round 3. Both are better transfers in a week than buys today.

A legal round 1 squad

This is a complete 15-man squad that respects the three-per-club cap and spends 99.5m, inside the solver's spending ceiling for the round. The starting eleven projects 86.5 xP before the captain's doubling, and every bench player has a real projection rather than being a placeholder.

That is a 3-5-2 with three Al Nassr, three Al Hilal, two Al Qadasiya, two Neom, two Al Hazem and two Abha players — inside the three-per-club limit everywhere. Swap Mahzari for Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, 6.2 xP) if you would rather own the more established name behind the same clean sheet, and swap Bulka for Bounou if you want the round's best clean sheet odds in goal. The site solves this live against the current projections, so check the optimal RSL Fantasy teams for the exact optimum before you lock anything in.

Three checks before the 16:10 deadline

First, compare every projection side by side on the RSL Fantasy player picks page — that is where the expected points in this article come from and where they update as team news lands. Second, confirm your cheap picks are actually named to start on the predicted lineups page; with a 16:10 deadline and a first kick-off at 18:15, the last hour matters. Third, if you are torn between two attackers, the RSL penalty takers list usually settles it — Joao Félix, Ivan Toney, Ruben Neves, Joshua King, Mateo Retegui, Youssef En-Nesyri, Fashion Sakala and Mourad Batna all have spot-kick duties at their clubs. For the full per-player breakdown, the RSL player data page has every underlying number.

New to how these projections are built? Our fantasy football strategy guide explains how expected points, clean sheet odds and ownership fit together, and the rest of the fantasy football guides cover the other games we model. Every future round is covered in the RSL Fantasy preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy round 1?

Joao Félix. He projects 11.8 expected points, the highest of any player in the game, he takes Al Nassr's penalties on a 0.97 share, and Al Nassr are at home to Al Fateh with an 85% win probability and 3.26 expected team goals. Julian Quinones (9.4) and Karim Benzema (9.3) are the alternatives, and Sadio Mané (9.2 at 8.4% ownership) is the differential armband.

Which players should I buy in RSL Fantasy round 1?

The core buys are Joao Félix (10.5m), Sadio Mané (9.0m) and Kingsley Coman (8.5m) from Al Nassr — the maximum three allowed from one club — plus Karim Benzema (10.0m) or Ivan Toney (12.0m) up front. In defence Mohammed Mahzari (5.0m, Al Hilal) leads the position on 7.6 expected points, Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) projects 6.2, and Marcin Bulka (4.5m, Neom) is the best-value goalkeeper on 5.1.

Should I sell Theo Hernández before RSL Fantasy round 1?

Yes, if you have a better use for the money. He is the most-owned defender in the game at 42.3% and projects 4.5 expected points for round 1, while Kalidou Koulibaly costs 1.5m less at 5.0m, projects 6.2 behind the same Al Hilal defence, and shares the same 50% clean sheet chance. Both blank in round 3, so the cheaper one is the better version of the same bet.

Is Cristiano Ronaldo worth buying for RSL Fantasy round 1?

No, but he is worth buying in round 2. He is not projected to feature in the opener and scores 0.0 expected points, which is a poor use of 12.5m in a week you cannot transfer out of cheaply. From there he projects 8.4 in round 2, 8.5 in round 3 and 10.1 in round 6, so he is a strong early-season target rather than a player to write off.

What are the best differentials for RSL Fantasy round 1?

Sultan Mandash (6.0m, Al Hilal) is the standout: 7.3 expected points at 0.9% ownership, with 0.36 expected goals and 0.34 expected assists, and he is in the predicted eleven. Sadio Mané is the premium version at 9.2 expected points and 8.4% ownership. Below them, Youssouf Oumarou (4.5m, Al Hazem) has the best ratio of any midfielder at 1.29 points per million on 0.1% ownership, and Ayman Yahya (5.0m, Al Nassr) is a 0.8%-owned route to a 40% clean sheet chance.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool