RSL Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 1 Preview

RSL Fantasy Round 1 preview: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems

RSL Fantasy 2026/2027 opens on Thursday 13 August with a deadline at 16:10, and the first three days of the Saudi Pro League season decide more of your season than most managers expect. You get one free transfer a week from here, so the round 1 squad you build is the squad you live with for a while. This preview covers the four things that actually matter now: who to buy, who to captain, which cheap players free up the budget, and which popular names are priced above what the model expects them to deliver.

Round 1 fixtures: where the points are

Four matches stand out, and they are not evenly spread. Al Nassr at home to Al Fateh is the single best fixture of the round by a distance, and Al Hilal have the best clean sheet platform.

Two more are worth knowing about. Al-Taawoun host Al Khaleej with a 52% win probability, which is the best fixture available to you at genuinely cheap prices. And Neom are home to Al-Fayha at 56%. Everything else in round 1 is close to a coin flip or worse. You can see every kick-off and the full 34-round program on the RSL Fantasy schedule page, and the underlying win, draw and clean sheet numbers on the RSL market probabilities page.

One planning note that changes how you build: Al Hilal and Al Ahli both blank in round 3 and then play twice in round 4. Al Hilal get [A]Al Khaleej and [H]Al Ahli; Al Ahli get [A]Al Kholood and [A]Al Hilal. That makes their assets slightly awkward now and very attractive in three weeks.

Goalkeepers: pay 5.5 for Bounou or save 1.0 and take Neom

Yassine Bounou (5.5m, Al Hilal) is the model's top goalkeeper for round 1 on 5.6 xP, and the reason is simple: Al-Faisaly at home gives him a 53% clean sheet chance, the highest in the round. He is also the most-owned keeper at 29.1%, so this is the safe route rather than the clever one.

The clever route is Marcin Bulka (4.5m, Neom SC) at 5.1 xP. Neom's 38% clean sheet chance is materially worse than Al Hilal's, but you save a full million and Bulka's opening six rounds are more evenly spread than Bounou's, whose round 3 is blank.

If you want the real differential, Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi (4.5m, Al Ahli) is owned by 0.5% and projects 4.9 xP behind a 44% clean sheet chance at Al Diriyah — and he picks up the round 4 double. Pair him with a cheap non-playing second keeper and you have funded a premium elsewhere.

Defenders: one elite pick, one cheap one, and a 5.0m outlier

Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the standout defensive pick of round 1 at 6.6 xP — the joint-highest of any defender in the game, from a player who costs a midfielder's budget price. He is classified as a defender but the model has him on 0.27 expected goals and 0.15 expected assists for the round, which is why he outscores far more expensive centre-backs. His PPM of 1.32 is the best of any outfield player above 4.5m, and his six-round decay-weighted score of 20.8 says this is not a one-week fixture punt. Only 8.7% of managers have him.

Theo Hernandez (6.5m, Al Hilal) matches Petkov on 6.6 xP and is the template pick at 35% ownership. He combines the round's best clean sheet odds with real attacking output, and his round 4 double is worth 11.1 xP on its own. The catch is the round 3 blank, so plan the bench around it.

For the budget slot, Abdulelah Al Amri (5.0m, Al Nassr) is the pick at 5.5 xP. Al Nassr's 49% clean sheet chance is second only to Al Hilal's, and Al Amri is cheaper than his teammate Inigo Martinez (5.5m, 5.4 xP) while projecting slightly more. If you need to go cheaper still, Abdurahman Al Dakheel (4.0m, Al Hazem) is a nailed 87-minute player at 4.1 xP — a legitimate playing fifth defender rather than a placeholder.

Mohamed Simakan (6.5m, Al Nassr) deserves a mention at 6.3 xP and 11.1% ownership. He is the third-best defender in the game over the full six-round window, with a weighted score of 19.7, and unlike Theo Hernandez he does not blank in round 3. He is behind Petkov only because Petkov does the same job for 1.5m less.

Midfielders: the Al Nassr block, and the two names nobody owns

Joao Felix (10.5m, Al Nassr) is the highest-projected midfielder at 8.4 xP and he takes Al Nassr's penalties, which matters a lot in a fixture where the model expects his side to score 3.31 goals. At 37.2% ownership he is close to essential rather than clever.

Kingsley Coman (8.5m, Al Nassr) is the better value of the two. He projects 7.8 xP — only 0.6 behind Felix — for two million less, with 0.41 expected assists for the round. His weighted six-round score of 25.0 is second only to Felix among all midfielders, and 14.3% ownership makes him a genuine edge over the field.

Sadio Mane (9.0m, Al Nassr) is the forgotten one at 5.2% ownership and 7.5 xP. The problem is not Mane, it is the three-per-club cap: you cannot own Ronaldo, Felix, Coman and Mane. Most managers will take Ronaldo plus two of the other three, and the model's preference is Felix and Coman.

Now the differentials, which is where round 1 leagues are actually won. Christopher Bonsu Baah (6.5m, Al Qadasiya) is owned by 5.4% and projects 6.1 xP away at Al Shabab. What makes him a buy rather than a punt is the consistency: 6.1, 6.6, 6.4, 6.1, 6.7, 5.3 across the first six rounds, for a weighted score of 22.5 — the fourth-best midfielder in the game at two-thirds of the price of the premiums.

Youssouf Oumarou (4.5m, Al Hazem) is the budget enabler of the season opener. He is owned by 0.1%, plays 89 minutes, and projects 6.2 xP — a PPM of 1.38, the highest of any player in the game. Al Hazem away at Abha is not a good fixture, and that is exactly the point: nobody is looking, and the model still has him outscoring midfielders costing twice as much.

Two more cheap options if Oumarou is a step too far: Ondrej Duda (5.0m, Al-Ettifaq) at 5.8 xP and 0.5% ownership, and Yacine Adli (5.5m, Al Shabab) at 5.1 xP with a strong 19.5 weighted score. Both are nailed starters, both are effectively unowned.

Forwards: Ronaldo, and then a real decision

Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr) projects 11.1 xP for round 1. That is not a typo and it is not close — the second-best forward in the game is on 7.2. Al Nassr at home to Al Fateh, an 86% win probability and 3.31 expected team goals, with Ronaldo carrying 1.07 expected goals of that on his own. His six-round weighted score of 35.3 is the highest of any player in the game by more than eight points. At 15.5% ownership he is somehow still a differential.

Roger Martinez (9.0m, Al-Taawoun) is the second forward the model likes, at 7.2 xP and 9.9% ownership. He takes Al-Taawoun's penalties and has the best non-Al Nassr attacking fixture of the round.

Alexandre Lacazette (7.0m, Neom SC) is the value play at 6.7 xP and 13.4% ownership — the same projection as Youssef En-Nesyri (8.5m, Al Ittihad) for 1.5m less.

If you need a cheap third striker, Leandro Antunes (6.0m, Al Riyadh) projects 5.9 xP at 2.3% ownership, which is remarkable for a side with a 29% win probability. Check the RSL predicted lineups before the deadline if you go that deep into the budget end.

Captain picks for RSL Fantasy round 1

Captain Cristiano Ronaldo. This is the least controversial captaincy call of the season. His 11.1 xP is 32% higher than the next-best option, in the round's best fixture, at home. There is no argument for anyone else on the data.

If you have deliberately gone without him, Joao Felix (8.4 xP) is the alternative, and he has the penalty duties to support the ceiling. Third is Kingsley Coman (7.8 xP). Everything below that — Mane on 7.5, Roger Martinez on 7.2 — is a lower-ceiling armband than simply owning Ronaldo and captaining him. Our guide to picking a fantasy captain covers how to think about ceiling versus floor when the gap is smaller than this.

Who to avoid in round 1

These are the popular or expensive names the model does not back at their price.

Ivan Toney (12.0m, Al Ahli) — 35.4% ownership and 6.5 xP. That is a PPM of 0.54, one of the worst ratios among the game's premiums. He costs almost as much as Ronaldo for 59% of the output, and he blanks in round 3. If you own one 12m+ forward, it should not be this one.

Karim Benzema (10.0m, Al Hilal) — 5.4 xP at 23.4% ownership, with the model projecting only 55 minutes. The round 4 double is real, but you do not need to pay for it in round 1.

Darwin Nunez (7.5m, Al Hilal) — 3.5 xP. He is the cheapest of the Al Hilal forwards and still the worst value; 11.7% of managers have him.

Danilo Pereira (6.0m, Al Ittihad) is the most-owned defender in the game at 38.1%, and his round 1 is fine at 5.1 xP — but it collapses to 3.0 in round 2 and his weighted score of 15.0 is well behind Petkov and Simakan at similar or lower prices. Take the opening week, then move on.

One to buy next round rather than now: Mourad Batna (7.5m, Al Fateh) projects just 3.7 xP away at Al Nassr this week, but 7.5 in round 2 and 8.5 in round 6. His 24.8% ownership is chasing the wrong week. Wait.

A legal round 1 squad within the 100.0m budget

This is a complete 15-man squad that fits the budget exactly, respects the three-per-club cap, and maximises round 1 expected points. The starting eleven projects 77.7 xP before the captain's doubling.

That is a 3-4-3 with three Al Nassr, three Al Hilal and three Al Hazem players — the maximum allowed from any one club. Swap Danilo Pereira for Mohamed Simakan if you would rather not carry a defender whose round 2 falls away, and swap Bounou for Bulka if you want the extra million in midfield. The site solves this exactly and live, so check the optimal RSL Fantasy teams for the current optimum before you lock anything in.

Before the 16:10 deadline

Three quick checks. Compare every projection side by side on the RSL Fantasy player picks page, which is where the expected points in this article come from and where they update as team news lands. Confirm your budget picks are actually starting on the predicted lineups. And if you are deciding between two attackers, the RSL penalty takers list often settles it — Felix, Toney, Roger Martinez, Carrasco, En-Nesyri and Benrahma all have spot-kick duties at their clubs. For deeper per-player numbers, the RSL player data page has the full breakdown.

New to how these numbers are built? Start with our explainer on what expected points means in fantasy football, then browse the rest of the fantasy football guides. Every future round gets covered in the RSL Fantasy preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy round 1?

Cristiano Ronaldo. He projects 11.1 expected points for round 1, which is 32% clear of the next-best option, with Al Nassr at home to Al Fateh at an 86% win probability and 3.31 expected team goals. Joao Felix (8.4 xP) and Kingsley Coman (7.8 xP) are the alternatives if you have built without Ronaldo.

Which players should I buy in RSL Fantasy round 1?

The core buys are Ronaldo (12.5m) up front, Joao Felix (10.5m) and Kingsley Coman (8.5m) in midfield, and Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) in defence — Petkov matches Theo Hernandez on 6.6 expected points for 1.5m less. Yassine Bounou (5.5m) is the top goalkeeper on a 53% clean sheet chance.

What are the best differentials for RSL Fantasy round 1?

Youssouf Oumarou (4.5m, Al Hazem) is owned by 0.1% and projects 6.2 expected points, the best points-per-million ratio in the game. Christopher Bonsu Baah (6.5m, Al Qadasiya) is on 5.4% ownership with the fourth-best six-round weighted score among midfielders. In goal, Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi (4.5m, Al Ahli) is a 0.5%-owned route to a 44% clean sheet chance.

Which expensive players should I avoid in RSL Fantasy round 1?

Ivan Toney (12.0m, Al Ahli) is owned by 35.4% but projects only 6.5 expected points — nearly Ronaldo money for 59% of the output, and he blanks in round 3. Karim Benzema (10.0m) projects 5.4 on 55 expected minutes, and Darwin Nunez (7.5m) just 3.5.

Do any RSL Fantasy teams blank or double in the opening rounds?

Yes. Al Hilal and Al Ahli both have no fixture in round 3 and then play twice in round 4 — Al Hilal face [A]Al Khaleej and [H]Al Ahli, while Al Ahli travel to [A]Al Kholood and [A]Al Hilal. Theo Hernandez alone is worth 11.1 expected points across that round 4 double, so plan transfers around it rather than reacting in round 3.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool