RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6: captain picks and best buys
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6: best buys, captain picks and differentials
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6 is a home-team round. The three strongest sides in the model all play at home, and the two best fixtures of the whole Gameweek belong to Al Hilal and Al Nassr. That part is easy, and most managers already have it covered. The Gameweek is won in the other eight or nine squad slots - and in getting two very heavily owned names out before they cost you again.
Gameweek 6 fixtures that matter
Al Hilal host Neom SC with an 80% win probability and 2.87 expected goals - the biggest number on the board. Al Nassr follow with Abha at home (73% win probability, 2.65 expected goals), and Al Ittihad take Al-Fayha at home (66%, 2.31). After that the round flattens out fast: no other team is above a 49% win probability.
| Team | Fixture | Win% | Expected goals | Clean sheet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal | [H]Neom SC | 80% | 2.87 | 48% |
| Neom SC | [A]Al Hilal | 6% | 0.74 | 6% |
| Al Nassr | [H]Abha | 73% | 2.65 | 38% |
| Abha | [A]Al Nassr | 11% | 0.97 | 7% |
| Al Ittihad | [H]Al-Fayha | 66% | 2.31 | 37% |
| Al-Fayha | [A]Al Ittihad | 14% | 1.00 | 10% |
The big-name game of the round is Al Qadasiya - Al Ahli, and it is closer than the price tags suggest: Al Qadasiya are only 47% to win it, with 1.83 expected goals. That single fact drives most of the transfer advice below, because both squads are full of expensive, heavily owned players who face a real opponent this week and a soft one next week. Check the full RSL Fantasy schedule and the current market probabilities before you commit.
Goalkeepers for Gameweek 6
Yassine Bounou (5.5m, Al Hilal) - 5.3 xP, and a 47% clean sheet chance, the highest of any keeper this Gameweek. He is 36% owned, so he is protection rather than a differential, but there is no arguing with the number against a Neom side the model gives 0.74 expected goals.
The differential is Nawaf Alaqidi (4.5m, Al Nassr) - 4.7 xP, a 37% clean sheet chance, and under 1% ownership. He is a full 1.0m cheaper than Bounou and only 0.6 xP behind him, which is the best goalkeeper trade in the game right now: 1.04 points per million against Bounou's 0.96. Predrag Rajkovic (5.1m, Al Ittihad) sits between them on 5.1 xP with a 36% clean sheet chance.
Defenders for Gameweek 6
Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, Al Hilal) is the standout defender of the Gameweek: 6.0 xP, the highest of any defender, at a price that leaves the rest of your squad alone. That is 1.20 points per million - nothing else in the position is close. Over the next six rounds he weights out at 18.8, so this is not a one-week buy.
Al Nassr's back line doubles up nicely behind him. Abdulelah Al Amri (5.2m, Al Nassr) takes 5.6 xP with a 29% clean sheet chance, and Nawaf Al-Boushail (5.0m, Al Nassr) 5.3 xP with 32%. Al Amri's trajectory reads 5.6 to 5.3 to 6.0 to 3.9 across Gameweeks 6-9, with the Gameweek 8 home game against Al Diriyah (85% win probability, 3.17 expected goals) the peak - so he is a hold, not a rotation piece.
Danilo Pereira (6.0m, Al Ittihad) is the other premium route into a strong home fixture at 5.6 xP, but note that his Gameweek 8 collapses to 3.1 when Al Ittihad travel to Al Hilal.
Budget defender to target: Seydouba Cisse (4.5m, Al Kholood) - 5.0 xP at the cheapest price in the position's top 10, which is 1.11 points per million and under 1% ownership. His club-mate Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, Al Kholood) is on the same 5.0 xP and has the better long game: 18.7 weighted over six rounds, with Gameweeks 10 and 11 at 5.8 and 5.9. Mohammed Al-Khabrani (4.5m, Al Khaleej) and Pedro Rebocho (5.0m, Al Khaleej) are the other cheap routes worth naming, at 4.8 and 5.2 xP.
Midfielders for Gameweek 6
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (9.6m, Al Hilal) is the best midfielder in the Gameweek at 7.7 xP, from 0.40 expected goals and 0.18 expected assists in a fixture where his team is projected for nearly three. At 13.5% ownership he is also a genuine differential against the more popular Al Hilal midfielders. His six-round weighted score of 25.4 is the second-highest of any midfielder in the game.
Sadio Mane (9.1m, Al Nassr) follows on 7.0 xP - the highest expected-assist figure among the premium midfielders at 0.30, plus a small share of Al Nassr's penalties.
Hidden gem: Kingsley Coman (8.3m, Al Nassr) - 6.5 xP on just 5.2% ownership. He is 0.5 xP behind Mane for 0.8m less, and 0.29 of his projection is expected assists. His weighted six-round score of 22.0 at 2.65 per million matches Milinkovic-Savic's efficiency exactly, and almost nobody owns him. If you want one calculated risk this Gameweek, this is the one the numbers support best.
Julian Quinones (12.0m, Al Qadasiya) is the most-owned midfielder in the game at 40% and only sixth by xP this week on 6.0 - the Al Ahli fixture is the reason. Do not sell him. He is the best asset in RSL Fantasy over the planning horizon, with a 28.6 weighted score and a Gameweek 7 projection of 11.3 xP when Al-Ettifaq visit (79% win probability, 3.18 expected goals). Own him through this week and captain him next.
Budget midfielder: Musa Barrow (5.9m, Al Khaleej) - 5.9 xP, 1.00 points per million, and 1.2% ownership. He takes every Al Khaleej penalty (a 1.00 penalty share, the highest in the league) and carries 0.40 expected goals from a home game against Al Riyadh. That is a premium-level projection at a bench-filler price. Miguel Crespo (6.0m, Al Khaleej) is the same fixture at 5.2 xP.
Forwards for Gameweek 6
Ollie Watkins (10.0m, Al Hilal) is the highest-projected player in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6 at 8.4 xP, from 0.70 expected goals - the biggest single-player goal projection on the board. At 13.6% ownership he is the rare case of a top-of-the-board pick that is still a differential, and his 2.61 points per million beats every other premium forward.
Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr) is second on 8.1 xP with 0.66 expected goals and an 89% penalty share against an Abha side projected at 0.97 expected goals. He is the more expensive way to the same ceiling, and his six-round weighted score of 26.4 is marginally the better of the two.
Ivan Toney (12.0m, Al Ahli) is the round's problem. He is the most-owned player in the game at 46% and only 5.9 xP this Gameweek, because Al Ahli travel to Al Qadasiya as 29% underdogs. Hold rather than sell: his Gameweek 7 is 9.6 xP at home to Al Hazem, and his weighted six-round score of 25.9 is third in the game. This is a bad week for a good asset, not a reason to pay a hit.
Hidden gem: Afimico Pululu (5.5m, Al Hazem) - 5.7 xP at 5.5m, which is 1.04 points per million, on 3.4% ownership. He carries a 79% penalty share and 0.40 expected goals even in a middling fixture, and his six-round weighted score of 18.4 beats several forwards costing twice as much. Leandro Antunes (6.0m, Al Riyadh) is the other cheap forward the model likes, at 5.0 xP and under 2% owned.
Darwin Nunez (7.6m, Al Diriyah) is worth a specific warning: 5.7 xP this week and 6.2 next, then it falls off a cliff to 2.8 in Gameweek 8 when Al Diriyah visit Al Nassr. He is a two-Gameweek buy, and only if you intend to move him again.
Best captain picks for Gameweek 6
1. Ollie Watkins (10.0m, Al Hilal) - 8.4 xP, the highest projection in the Gameweek, in the fixture with the best win probability and the most expected goals. He is also the cheapest of the realistic captain options, and 86% of managers do not own him.
2. Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr) - 8.1 xP, a 0.3 gap to Watkins, plus the penalty share that raises his floor if Al Nassr's game turns scrappy. If you own both, this is close enough to be a coin flip.
3. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (9.6m, Al Hilal) - 7.7 xP and the best non-forward armband in the game this week.
Treat the armband as a two-week plan, not a one-week pick. Watkins or Ronaldo this Gameweek, then Quinones in Gameweek 7 on 11.3 xP - a projection nothing else in the game comes near. Owning that pair means you have a top captain option in both rounds without paying a transfer fee to get one. Cross-check the exact ranking against the live RSL Fantasy player picks and the current optimal teams before the deadline.
Who to sell before Gameweek 6
Joao Felix (10.5m, Al Nassr) - the clearest sell in the game. He is 43.9% owned and the model has him on 0.0 xP for Gameweek 6 and 0.8 for Gameweek 7, with no projected minutes in this round at all. A 10.5m slot returning nothing is the most expensive thing on most squads right now. Coman at 8.3m and 6.5 xP is the same-club replacement.
Theo Hernandez (6.4m, Al Hilal) - the same story one price tier down: 15.6% owned, 0.0 xP this Gameweek and 0.0 next. Koulibaly is 1.4m cheaper and projected at 6.0.
Joshua King (7.4m, Al Khaleej) - 14.1% owned with zero projected minutes. If you want the Al Khaleej fixture, Barrow at 5.9m is the way in.
Merih Demiral (5.6m, Al Ahli) - 26.8% owned, 1.9 xP, and a 51-minute projection in a fixture where Al Ahli have a 16% clean sheet chance. Roger Ibanez (6.5m, Al Ahli) is on 3.8 xP for the same reason, but recovers to 5.6 in Gameweek 7, so he is a hold if you are short on transfers.
Alexandre Lacazette (7.2m, Neom SC) - 24.1% owned and 3.2 xP away at Al Hilal, the worst fixture in the Gameweek. He is 5.9 next week, so this is a bench call rather than a sale unless you need the funds.
Mailson (5.1m, Al-Taawoun) - 20.6% owned, 4.4 xP, and a 27% clean sheet chance away at Al Hazem. Rajkovic is the same money for a better fixture, and Alaqidi is 0.6m cheaper for a better one still.
George Ilenikhena (4.8m, Al Ittihad) - 19.4% owned but only 33 projected minutes and 2.5 xP. He is priced as a bench forward and projected as one; if he occupies a starting slot, move him.
Gameweek 6 in one line
Own one of Watkins or Ronaldo and captain him. Get Joao Felix and Theo Hernandez out. Then put the freed budget into the names nobody else has - Coman at 5% ownership, Barrow at 1%, Cisse and Pululu under 4% - because the Al Hilal and Al Nassr premiums are already on everybody's squad, and the eight slots after them are where the league is actually decided. If you need the exact starting elevens before the deadline, the RSL Fantasy predicted lineups update through the day, and earlier rounds are collected in the RSL Fantasy preview hub alongside our Gameweek 5 preview and the wider fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6?
Ollie Watkins. He is the highest-projected player in the Gameweek at 8.4 xP, with 0.70 expected goals in an Al Hilal home game the model gives an 80% win probability and 2.87 expected goals. Cristiano Ronaldo (8.1 xP) is the alternative if you do not own Watkins, and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (7.7 xP) is the best midfield armband.
Should I sell Joao Felix before Gameweek 6?
Yes. The model has Joao Felix on 0.0 xP for Gameweek 6 and 0.8 for Gameweek 7, with no projected minutes in this round, and he is 43.9% owned at 10.5m. Kingsley Coman is the same-club replacement at 8.3m and 6.5 xP.
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 6?
Seydouba Cisse (4.5m, Al Kholood) at 5.0 xP is the best value in the position - 1.11 points per million and under 1% ownership. Mohammed Al-Khabrani (4.5m, Al Khaleej) on 4.8 xP is the other cheap option, and Kalidou Koulibaly at 5.0m and 6.0 xP is the best defender in the Gameweek at any price.
Best differentials for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 6?
Kingsley Coman (8.3m, Al Nassr, 5.2% owned, 6.5 xP) and Musa Barrow (5.9m, Al Khaleej, 1.2% owned, 5.9 xP, and the only man on a 100% penalty share) are the two best low-ownership picks. Afimico Pululu (5.5m, Al Hazem, 3.4% owned, 5.7 xP) is the cheapest route to a forward projection above 5.5.
Should I sell Ivan Toney before Gameweek 6?
No. Toney is the most-owned player in the game at 46.3% and only 5.9 xP this Gameweek because Al Ahli travel to Al Qadasiya as underdogs, but he rebounds to 9.6 xP at home to Al Hazem in Gameweek 7 and has the third-best six-round weighted score in RSL Fantasy. Bench him if you have a better option, but do not pay a transfer fee to move him.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool