RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5: captain picks and best buys

RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell

RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5 is the round where the Saudi Pro League fixture list splits in two. Al Ahli and Al Qadasiya have excellent games right now and awkward ones straight after. Al Hilal and Al Nassr have the opposite shape - good now, better later. Gameweek 5 opens on Thursday 3 September and closes on Saturday 5 September, and Gameweek 6 follows only two days later, so anything you buy this week you effectively buy for two rounds.

The names at the top - Ivan Toney, Joao Felix, Julian Quinones - are already on a large share of teams. Owning them is not what moves you up a league. This preview spends most of its time on the eight or nine squad slots after them, where the model finds real edge at low ownership. Every number here comes from the current projection, and you can compare the full pool yourself on the RSL Fantasy player picks page.

The Gameweek 5 fixtures that carry the value

Four games hold most of the fantasy points. The figures below are the model's win probability, projected goals and clean sheet probability for each side.

Al Shabab - Al Hilal carries the highest projected goal total of any team in the round at 2.65, and the underlying numbers back it. Al Hilal have produced 3.48 expected goals per game across the opening four rounds and conceded only 1.21, a non-penalty expected goal difference of +2.27 per game - roughly double the next best side in the league. Al Shabab have kept one clean sheet in four.

Al Ittihad - Al Nassr is the headline fixture and the model is far more one-sided about it than the billing suggests. Al Ittihad are given an 11% clean sheet chance at home, the lowest of any home side in Gameweek 5. That cuts both ways: it makes Al Nassr's attack live, and it makes the Al Ittihad defence unownable. Kick-off times for all nine games are on the RSL Fantasy schedule, and the bookmaker odds these probabilities are built from are on the market probabilities page.

Gameweek 5 to Gameweek 8: whose run is actually improving

This is the part that should decide your transfer, because the two best fixtures of the week both belong to teams whose next game is much harder.

Al Hilal have the best run in the league and no bad week in it: [A]Al Shabab → [H]Neom → [A]Al-Taawoun → [H]Al Ittihad at 72%, 68%, 62% and 71%. Al Nassr are the sharper curve - 59% now, then [H]Abha → [A]Al Khaleej → [H]Al Diriyah at 79%, 62% and 84%, with 3.15 projected goals in that Gameweek 8 home game, the single highest team figure in the next four rounds.

Al Ahli are the warning. Outstanding this week, then away at Al Qadasiya in Gameweek 6 at just a 28% win probability. Their projections drop hard across the board: Toney 8.0 to 5.1, Roger Ibanez 6.3 to 3.8, Eduard Spertsyan 6.5 to 4.4. Buying an Al Ahli player in Gameweek 5 is fine, but treat it as a one-round spike and plan the exit now. Al Qadasiya are the mirror image, improving into Gameweek 7 at home to Al-Ettifaq with 2.83 projected goals.

Best buys by position for Gameweek 5

Goalkeeper

Yassine Bounou (5.5m, Al Hilal) is the round's top keeper at 5.0 xP and the steadiest across the horizon - 5.0, 4.9, 4.9, 5.0 over Gameweeks 5 to 8 for a weighted score of 18.04. He has played every minute of the season behind the best defence in the league. At 37.1% ownership he protects your rank rather than winning it.

The differential is Nawaf Alaqidi (4.5m, Al Nassr), owned by 0.7% of teams. He has taken the gloves from Bento, and the model now has him as the clear number one. He is on 4.3 xP this week with 2.83 projected saves, but the case is the run behind it: 4.9, 4.5 and 5.2 in Gameweeks 6 to 8, and only Bounou projects higher over that stretch - for 1.0m more. The money saved here pays for an upgrade elsewhere. Mailson (5.1m, Al-Taawoun) at 4.7 xP is the middle option if you want this week's points without the rotation question.

Defenders

Defensive contributions carry a large share of the RSL Fantasy defender projection, which is why the model's best defenders are not simply the ones with the best clean sheet odds. Once you see that, the cheap picks make sense.

Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, Al Hilal) is the best defender in the game over the horizon - 5.8 xP this week and a weighted score of 19.95, the highest of any defender - with 6.11 projected clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles. Al Hilal have conceded 1.21 expected goals per game and kept two clean sheets in four. He is the correlated partner to Bounou: one Al Hilal clean sheet pays both.

Roger Ibanez (6.5m, Al Ahli) tops the position for this round alone at 6.3 xP on 6.71 projected defensive actions and a 38% clean sheet chance. He is also the clearest one-week buy in the article, because his Gameweek 6 projection is 3.8.

The two genuine value picks are at Neom and Al-Taawoun. Malang Sarr (5.0m, Neom) projects 8.24 clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles, a top-three figure among defenders in Gameweek 5, for 6.1 xP at 4.7% ownership. Marin Petkov (5.0m, Al-Taawoun) matches him at 6.1 xP and 1.22 points per million, the best ratio of any defender above 6.0 xP, and he is a genuine attacking threat from the back: 1.30 expected assists in 355 minutes so far, more than most midfielders in the league.

Seydouba Cisse (4.5m, Al Kholood) remains the most extreme differential in the game at 0.4% ownership. He projects 5.9 xP on 5.16 defensive actions and 84 projected minutes - he has played every minute of the season - and at 4.5m that is 1.31 points per million. His team-mate Edgaras Utkus (5.0m, 4.5% owned) is the volume alternative at 8.97 projected defensive actions, the second highest of any defender in the round, for 5.2 xP. Al Kholood travel to Al-Fayha with a 33% clean sheet chance, so neither is a clean sheet bet - they are contribution bets, and that is exactly how RSL Fantasy pays defenders.

If you want the template pick instead, Nacho Fernandez (5.6m, Al Qadasiya) is on 5.5 xP at 41.0% ownership and the best four-round run of any defender owned by more than a third of teams.

Midfielders

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (9.5m, Al Hilal) is the standout buy of Gameweek 5. He is on 7.7 xP now and 27.01 on the weighted four-round score - the highest of any player in the game at any position - and he is owned by only 10.2%. He has three goals in four games from 1.07 expected goals, and Al Hilal's fixture run never dips. If you make one transfer this week, this is the one the model likes most.

Julian Quinones (12.0m, Al Qadasiya) matches him at 7.7 xP and rises to 8.3 in Gameweek 7. He has 1.68 expected goals and 1.19 expected assists in four full games, 12 shots, and takes a share of the penalties. He is the most expensive midfielder in the game and 42.6% owned, so he is a rank-protection pick more than a differential.

Joao Felix (10.6m, Al Nassr) is on 7.2 xP this week and is the buy for the run behind it: 8.4, 6.8 and 8.9 in Gameweeks 6 to 8. He leads Al Nassr for expected assists with 1.87 in 331 minutes and takes 42% of the team's penalties. At 52.3% ownership he is already the template. Sadio Mane (9.0m, 10.1% owned) is the same fixture run at 1.6m less, on 6.4 xP with 7.4 and 7.5 to come - the better differential of the two Al Nassr midfielders.

The best underlying numbers in the league belong to Crysencio Summerville (8.5m, Al Hilal): 3.27 expected goals and 1.97 expected assists in 348 minutes, an expected goal involvement of 1.36 per 90 that no one else in the Saudi Pro League is close to. He is on 6.4 xP and 33.1% owned. He has scored twice and assisted twice already, and the model still thinks he is underperforming his chances.

For the cheaper slots, Sultan Mandash (6.0m, Al Hilal) is the pick at 4.4% ownership - 5.6 xP, two goals and two assists in 270 minutes, and 0.94 expected goal involvement per 90. He is the cheapest route into the best attack in the league. Aschraf El Mahdioui (5.5m, Al-Taawoun) at 4.8 xP and 85 projected minutes is the reliable budget filler, and Giorgos Masouras (6.4m, Neom) at 5.3 xP and 2.8% ownership is a two-round punt before Neom travel to Al Hilal.

Forwards

Ivan Toney (12.0m, Al Ahli) is the highest-projected player in Gameweek 5 at 8.0 xP, and it is not close. Al Riyadh have conceded 2.01 expected goals per game, among the three worst defences in the league, and Toney takes 91% of Al Ahli's penalties. He has four goals from 2.57 expected goals in 336 minutes. The caveat is the same one as for every Al Ahli asset: 5.1 in Gameweek 6.

Abderrazak Hamdallah (8.1m, Al-Taawoun) is the better-value premium at 6.5 xP. Al-Taawoun host Al Fateh with a 52% win probability, and Hamdallah takes 93% of the penalties - the highest share of any forward in the game. He has played all 360 minutes so far. Al Fateh have conceded 1.72 expected goals per game.

The budget forward to know is Afimico Pululu (5.5m, Al Hazem) at 3.7% ownership. He is on 5.4 xP - within 1.1 of Toney at less than half the price - for 0.98 points per million, the best ratio of any forward. He takes 78% of Al Hazem's penalties, has 1.46 expected goals and 0.58 expected assists in 359 minutes, and projects 83 minutes at Al-Faisaly, who have conceded 2.41 expected goals per game, the worst defence in the league.

Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, Al Nassr) deserves a separate note. He is on 5.1 xP for Gameweek 5 on 52 projected minutes - he has played 153 minutes across four rounds - so this is not the week to bring him in. What follows is: 7.4, 6.3 and 8.0 in Gameweeks 6 to 8, and he takes 58% of Al Nassr's penalties. If you own him, hold. If you do not, Gameweek 6 is the entry point, not this one. You can check his projected minutes yourself on the RSL Fantasy predicted lineups page.

Best captain picks for Gameweek 5

Ivan Toney is the captain. At 8.0 xP he is the highest-projected player in the round, he has the best fixture in the round, he takes the penalties, and he is scoring above his expected goals rather than below them. Nothing else in Gameweek 5 has that combination.

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (7.7 xP) is the differential armband. Al Hilal have the highest projected goal total of the round at 2.65 and he is owned by only 10.2%, so a big score from him gains far more ground than the same score from Toney. Julian Quinones (7.7 xP) is the third option, level on projection and the safer of the two if you already own him.

Below them the round thins out quickly - Joao Felix at 7.2 is the only other player above 6.6 - so if you are not on one of the top three, taking a hit to reach one is rarely worth it in a single round. Captaincy is a plan rather than a weekly coin flip: Felix and Ronaldo both project above 7.4 in Gameweek 6, so an Al Nassr premium bought this week gives you the armband next week too.

Who to sell before Gameweek 5

Ruben Neves (9.1m, Al Hilal, 35.2% owned) is the clearest downgrade in the game. He is on 5.1 xP for 0.56 points per million, the worst ratio of any high-ownership premium, and his four-round weighted score of 17.61 is below several 5.0m defenders. Milinkovic-Savic is 0.4m more and projects 2.6 points higher this week alone.

Moussa Dembele (7.2m, Al-Ettifaq, 36.4% owned) is the other one to move on. His projection is 4.8 this week and 3.7 in Gameweek 7, and Al-Ettifaq have a 39% win probability at Abha. He has three goals from 3.40 expected goals in 357 minutes, so the finishing has already been kind. Pululu is 1.7m cheaper and projects higher over the next four rounds.

Alexandre Lacazette (7.2m, Neom, 24.7% owned) is fine for this round at 5.4 xP but falls to 3.6 in Gameweek 6, when Neom travel to Al Hilal at a 13% win probability. If you are making a transfer anyway, do it before that fixture rather than after it.

Avoid the Al Ittihad defence entirely. An 11% home clean sheet chance against Al Nassr is the lowest of any home side in Gameweek 5, and Youssef En-Nesyri projects only 3.6 xP at 8.5m in the same match. The full ranked pool, including everyone not mentioned here, is on the player picks page, and the model's best legal squad for this round is solved live on the RSL Fantasy optimal teams page.

Gameweek 5 in one line

Captain Toney, buy Milinkovic-Savic, and use the cheap slots on Sarr, Petkov, Cisse and Pululu rather than on a fourth premium. If you want to read how the Gameweek 4 picks were framed, our RSL Fantasy Gameweek 4 preview is still up, and every round of the season is collected in the RSL Fantasy preview hub. More guides to the game are in our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5?

Ivan Toney. He is the highest-projected player in Gameweek 5 at 8.0 xP, Al Ahli host Al Riyadh with a 72% win probability and 2.53 projected goals, and Toney takes 91% of the penalties with four goals already this season. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (7.7 xP, 10.2% owned) is the differential alternative and Julian Quinones (7.7 xP) the third option.

Which budget defenders are best for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5?

Seydouba Cisse at 4.5m is the best value defender in Gameweek 5 - 5.9 xP for 1.31 points per million, at just 0.4% ownership. Malang Sarr and Marin Petkov, both 5.0m, are on 6.1 xP each; Sarr projects 8.24 defensive actions, a top-three figure among defenders this week, and Petkov has already produced 1.30 expected assists in 355 minutes.

Should I sell Ruben Neves before Gameweek 5?

Yes. Neves projects 5.1 xP at 9.1m, which is 0.56 points per million - the worst ratio of any widely owned premium in RSL Fantasy. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic costs 0.4m more and projects 7.7 xP in Gameweek 5 with a stronger four-round run behind it.

Is Cristiano Ronaldo a good buy for Gameweek 5?

Not this week. Ronaldo projects 5.1 xP on 52 projected minutes in Gameweek 5 and has played 153 minutes across the first four rounds. His Gameweek 6 to 8 projections are 7.4, 6.3 and 8.0 as Al Nassr's fixtures soften, so Gameweek 6 is the better entry point.

Best differentials for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 5?

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic at 10.2% ownership is the standout - 7.7 xP and the highest four-round weighted score of any player in the game. Below him, Seydouba Cisse (0.4% owned, 5.9 xP), Sultan Mandash (4.4% owned, 5.6 xP) and Afimico Pululu (3.7% owned, 5.4 xP) all project ahead of far more popular players at their price.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool