FPL GW4

Current OR1 in (short) long term ranks

Well, if you haven't seen on X, I would just like to let you know that I'm now currently 1st in the world in 3, 4, and 5-year ranks (since I started playing FPL) according to Premier Fantasy Tools. Obviously due to a good start this season, but I'll do my best to end at OR1 when GW38 has been wrapped up. Okay, no more bragging, I promise. I'm here to help you become a better manager. While you reading though, it's 1 in 11.600.000 managers that have signed up this season...

Link for the interested:

https://x.com/FPL_Bronx/status/1964767526921068743

Lots of options

Many strategies are in play this week with wildcard, free hit, triple captain and no chip all being in the mix. In general, I think this is a decent time to wildcard, and I would still pick a team very close to my current team. If you asked me before the season, I would’ve said no way you should pick Haaland on WC4, but with the information we have now, I think Salah and Haaland drafts are much closer.

Haaland has underperformed his expected points heavily, while Salah has overperformed, and Salah has also been in a negative trend for a long time now.

Personally, I have already played the wildcard, and my initial plan was to FH6. I will probably still be on FH, but I am now considering a change of team structure to sell Salah and accommodate Haaland by GW6.

If you are on wildcard, I think an important factor to consider is your FT bank. If you have no spare FTs, it’s much harder to take a bet on a fragile squad, whereas if your FT bank allows more risk taking, you can go lighter on the bench (4.5 FWD x 2) for instance.

If you decide to go for Haaland, I would advise a playing second striker in most cases.

On free hit I like to take a correlated bet. That could be a triple up in defense of both Arsenal and Crystal Palace this week. Yes, I meant both. That’s just my playstyle, but for free hit I think it’s more important to pick reasonable players (high predictions) and combine it with personal beliefs. For a single GW, the variance plays a huge role.

Triple captain is an actual consideration for me this week. If Salah had decent underlying stats so far this season, I’m quite sure I would pull the trigger.

Liverpool had more xG away from home last season.

Salah had insane underlying stats against the demoted teams last season away from home.

Burnley has been the worst team in terms of xG conceded so far even with a home game against Sunderland within the first three games.

Unfortunately, I’m not as certain of the potential of Salah as I was before the season. No alarm bells ringing yet, but you should monitor his performances in the near future. 14.5 is a lot of budget allocation.

Key players

I’ll do a short verdict on a few key players and what to do with them.

Palmer – keep if at all possible, and if you keep him, I advise to start him. I think he starts if he is ready and does not play if he is not. We will very likely need him later in the season, so don’t panic sell him. Alternatives aren’t amazing, as you will likely have to drop to a lower price point, so you need to be able to reallocate that budget into a different pick. That will mean two transfers or a chip to get Palmer back.

Sarr – if you have a strong bench and team structure, investigate if you can keep and just wait for him to come back. He is likely a sell though, and I will personally sell him. Paqueta, Mitoma and Enzo are my favorite picks in a 1:1 swap.

Strand Larsen – also a keep if your team allows it. Especially because I don’t like the alternatives anyway.

If I missed someone, let me know on X.

My team

Here is my current team without transfers.

I’m in a situation where I need to move on at least one player. While Palmer is a risk, I believe he will start if he is ready. Otherwise I’ll accept Agbadou in the XI as I don’t want to get rid of Palmer for the future.

I am currently leaning towards Paqueta as my move this week instead of Sarr and keep the other FT in the bank. I’ve considered Mitoma as well, but he hasn’t shown much this season and had a downward trend last season. Enzo could be a good pick, but that does not seem to fit to well with my chip strategy. Also, Enzo has performed really well for expected points in the absence of Palmer, but not in GW1 where Palmer was on the pitch.

I’m unsure about triple captain, but I am leaning towards not playing it this GW. Salah will obviously be my captain nonetheless.

Best of luck everyone!