FPL Gameweek 11 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 11 tips: best buys, captain picks and differentials
FPL Gameweek 11 comes straight after the international break, which gives Fantasy Premier League managers two weeks to plan transfers. Use them on the next three Gameweeks, not just this one. Manchester City host Fulham, Liverpool host Manchester United, and Arsenal travel to Newcastle. Then Gameweek 12 brings Arsenal - Manchester City. A transfer you make now has to work across all three rounds, so every pick below comes with its program for Gameweeks 11-13.
Our model's numbers are on the FPL player picks page. Every price and projection below comes from the same data.
FPL Gameweek 11 fixtures: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning
Liverpool's [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN has the highest attacking total of the next three Gameweeks, at 5.55 expected goals. Manchester City's [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE is close behind on 5.51. Their two home games are among the best fixtures on the board, and the trip to Arsenal is a week to plan around rather than a reason to sell. Brighton's [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU (5.48) and Chelsea's [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY (5.45) round out the top four.
For defenders, look at expected clean sheets rather than goals. Arsenal lead the game with 1.15 expected clean sheets from [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE, even with City in the middle. Tottenham's [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL (1.05) and Liverpool (1.02) come next. Brighton have the best clean-sheet chance of this Gameweek itself, 40% at Hull.
| Team | GW11 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW11-13) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV | [H]MUN | 52% | 1.91 | 29% | [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN | 5.55 | 1.02 |
| MCI | [H]FUL | 68% | 2.36 | 38% | [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE | 5.51 | 0.97 |
| BHA | [A]HUL | 63% | 2.05 | 40% | [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU | 5.48 | 0.92 |
| CHE | [H]LEE | 53% | 1.78 | 33% | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY | 5.45 | 0.94 |
| ARS | [A]NEW | 60% | 1.98 | 38% | [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE | 5.22 | 1.15 |
| TOT | [H]IPS | 65% | 2.18 | 38% | [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL | 5.05 | 1.05 |
| AVL | [H]SUN | 55% | 1.84 | 35% | [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE | 4.95 | 0.96 |
| BOU | [H]NFO | 48% | 1.65 | 31% | [H]NFO → [A]FUL → [H]BHA | 4.67 | 0.80 |
| MUN | [A]LIV | 24% | 1.24 | 15% | [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW | 4.62 | 0.61 |
| CRY | [A]COV | 34% | 1.38 | 22% | [A]COV → [H]HUL → [A]CHE | 4.27 | 0.69 |
| NFO | [A]BOU | 26% | 1.17 | 19% | [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL | 4.09 | 0.80 |
Further down the table, Manchester United's [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW starts with their hardest game, so their attackers get better from Gameweek 12. Brentford's [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS goes the other way, and [H]MCI follows in Gameweek 14. Hull, Sunderland and Fulham have the weakest three-Gameweek runs in the game, at 3.40 expected goals or less each. The full fixture list is on the FPL schedule, and the market probabilities show the betting odds behind these numbers.
Best FPL Gameweek 11 goalkeepers
David Raya (6.2m, ARS) has the most expected points of any goalkeeper over the next three Gameweeks, with 11.9 from [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE. His projections barely move (4.0 → 3.8 → 4.1), even with City at home. With 47.2% ownership he protects your rank rather than gaining you any, but no other keeper offers a steadier run.
Alisson Becker (5.5m, LIV) is the differential. He is owned by 4.1% of managers and projects 11.6 from [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN. His projections rise each week (3.6 → 3.8 → 4.2), and he is a buy to hold rather than one for a single Gameweek. Zion Suzuki (5.0m, AVL) projects 11.3 from [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE, which is two of the easiest fixtures any defence has in this window.
For a cheaper option, Antonin Kinsky (4.4m, TOT) scores 0.84 points per million this Gameweek, and Tottenham's [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL gives him 10.9 over three Gameweeks. Bart Verbruggen (4.6m, BHA) joins Raya on a joint-best 4.0 this round, but his run fades from 4.0 to 3.2 across [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU. Keep him if you own him, but don't buy him for the next three.
Best FPL Gameweek 11 defenders
Gabriel (8.1m, ARS) is the premium defender and the most consistent player in the position: 4.8 → 4.4 → 4.6 over [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE, and his 13.8 is the highest three-Gameweek total of any defender. Arsenal's 1.15 expected clean sheets are the best in the game, and he plays close to 90 minutes in all three.
The best example of this Gameweek's ranking disagreeing with the three-Gameweek one is at Brighton. Maxim De Cuyper (5.4m, BHA) tops the position this Gameweek with 5.3 at Hull, but drops to 4.4 and 3.4 across [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU, and his minutes sit around 75. Luka Vuskovic (5.2m, BHA) scores 0.1 less this round (5.2) and plays more (83 projected minutes). Over the three Gameweeks he projects 13.5 to De Cuyper's 13.1, and he is 0.2m cheaper. If you are buying one Brighton defender to hold, buy Vuskovic. At 7.9% ownership he is also the differential.
Jan Paul van Hecke (5.0m, TOT) projects 4.5 → 4.1 → 4.1 over [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL, with 85 projected minutes in every round. At 12.7 over three Gameweeks, only Gabriel and the Brighton pair project more. Liverpool's centre-backs also look good: Jérémy Jacquet (5.1m, LIV) projects 12.5 over [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN at 4.6% ownership. That is within 0.1 of Virgil van Dijk, for 1.3m less.
Bournemouth's back line is the medium-term option. James Hill (5.6m, BOU) and Antonio Silva (5.1m, BOU) project about 4.3 this round from [H]NFO → [A]FUL → [H]BHA. Gameweek 14 at home to Hull lifts all three Bournemouth defenders to 4.9 or more. Silva is the cheaper way in, and all of them are owned by less than 4%.
The budget defender is Milan van Ewijk (3.9m, COV), at 0.95 points per million this Gameweek. Coventry's [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS gives him 3.7 → 3.1 → 3.7 with 84 projected minutes. Ethan Pinnock (4.5m, COV) projects a little more (10.8 over three Gameweeks) and is owned by almost nobody. Both drop off from Gameweek 14 ([A]MUN), so plan to hold them for three Gameweeks.
Best FPL Gameweek 11 midfielders
Bruno Fernandes (11.7m, MUN) has the highest three-Gameweek total of any midfielder, at 16.8. His trajectory is what makes him a buy this week: 4.7 at Anfield, then 6.1 and 6.0 from [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW, and 6.6 at home to Coventry in Gameweek 14. Manchester United's penalty taker plays the full 90. His Anfield projection still matches Ødegaard's and Tavernier's, so buying him now costs nothing this round and puts him in your team for the run that follows. Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) is the cheaper way into the same program: 4.4 → 5.3 → 4.8, then 6.2 in Gameweek 14.
Cole Palmer (9.8m, CHE) projects 16.3 over [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY, including 6.1 at home to Palace. He is Chelsea's penalty taker and the second-highest-scoring midfielder over the three Gameweeks. Morgan Rogers (8.2m, CHE) is owned by 53.8% and projects 14.9 over the same three Gameweeks, so keep him. Chelsea's run gets much harder from Gameweek 14 ([H]LIV, then [A]MCI), so this is the window to own both.
| Player | Price | Owned | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | 3-GW total | Program (GW11-13) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes (MUN) | 11.7m | 20.6% | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 16.8 | [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW |
| Cole Palmer (CHE) | 9.8m | 28.5% | 5.5 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 16.3 | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY |
| Morgan Rogers (CHE) | 8.2m | 53.8% | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 14.9 | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY |
| Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) | 7.9m | 19.7% | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 14.5 | [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW |
| Diego Gomez (BHA) | 5.0m | 4.0% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 13.4 | [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU |
| Pascal Gross (BHA) | 6.3m | 47.3% | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 12.5 | [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU |
| Mohammed Kudus (TOT) | 6.6m | 2.0% | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 13.5 | [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL |
| Martin Ødegaard (ARS) | 6.7m | 16.3% | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 13.3 | [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE |
| Sandro Tonali (TOT) | 5.3m | 2.0% | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 11.6 | [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL |
| Jack Rudoni (COV) | 4.9m | 1.1% | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 11.6 | [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS |
The best value in midfield is Diego Gomez (5.0m, BHA): 0.94 points per million this Gameweek and 13.4 over [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU, at 4.0% ownership. He sets up the second ranking disagreement at Brighton. Pascal Gross (6.3m, BHA) out-projects him at Hull (5.1 against 4.7), but Gross's projected minutes drop from 80 to 70 after this Gameweek, and Gomez projects 0.9 more over the three Gameweeks for 1.3m less. For a Brighton midfielder to keep, Gomez is the better pick.
Mohammed Kudus (6.6m, TOT) joins Palmer on the highest single-Gameweek midfield projection, 5.5 at home to Ipswich. After that, his [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL settles at 4.0 and 4.0, and his minutes fall from 73 to 65. He is Tottenham's penalty taker, and at 2.0% ownership he is a strong differential for one Gameweek that is still worth holding for two more. Sandro Tonali (5.3m, TOT) is the cheaper Tottenham option: 81 projected minutes in each of the three games, and 11.6 over the run.
The budget midfielder is Jack Rudoni (4.9m, COV). He projects 4.3 → 3.3 → 4.0 over [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS and is owned by 1.1% of managers. Arsenal's Martin Ødegaard (6.7m, ARS) is the mid-price pick to hold: 4.7 → 4.4 → 4.2 over [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE, and his 16.0 weighted six-Gameweek score ranks sixth among midfielders.
Best FPL Gameweek 11 forwards
Erling Haaland (15.8m, MCI) is owned by 79.2% and projects 7.3 at home to Fulham, 0.87 expected goals from one match. [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE gives him 7.3 → 4.3 → 6.7, and he projects 8.3 by Gameweek 16 ([H]HUL). Nobody needs telling to keep him. The more useful question is what to put beside him.
Alexander Isak (9.2m, LIV) is the strongest second forward over the next three Gameweeks: 5.0 → 4.3 → 4.7 for 14.0 from [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN. Nicolas Jackson (7.0m, AVL) is 2.2m cheaper and projects 12.7 from [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE. He is Aston Villa's penalty taker, which keeps his floor up despite about 70 projected minutes.
The value forward is Charalampos Kostoulas (5.8m, BHA): 4.3 → 4.3 → 3.6 over [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU, the best points per million (0.74) of any forward. Thierno Barry (5.7m, EVE) is the budget forward to hold. His projections stay flat (3.8 → 3.7 → 3.8 over [A]BRE → [H]LIV → [A]AVL) and he plays around 80 minutes, so you can keep him without checking every week.
One forward is a single-Gameweek option only. Thiago Rodrigues (7.8m, BRE) projects 4.9 at home to Everton, third-best in the position. After that he falls to 3.6 and 2.9 as [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS gets harder, and Manchester City visit in Gameweek 14. If you buy him, plan to sell him again in Gameweek 12.
FPL Gameweek 11 captain picks
Captain Erling Haaland (15.8m, MCI). He projects 7.3 at home to Fulham, which becomes 14.6 as captain. That is 1.8 more than anyone else in the game projects this Gameweek, and it comes in Manchester City's best fixture of [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE.
| Player | GW11 fixture | GW11 xP | Captain ceiling (x2) | GW11-13 xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland (MCI) | [H]FUL | 7.3 | 14.6 | 18.3 |
| Cole Palmer (CHE) | [H]LEE | 5.5 | 11.0 | 16.3 |
| Mohammed Kudus (TOT) | [H]IPS | 5.5 | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| Maxim De Cuyper (BHA) | [A]HUL | 5.3 | 10.6 | 13.1 |
| Alexander Isak (LIV) | [H]MUN | 5.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| Bruno Fernandes (MUN) | [A]LIV | 4.7 | 9.4 | 16.8 |
If you want an alternative, Cole Palmer (5.5, [H]LEE) and Mohammed Kudus (5.5, [H]IPS) are joint second. Alexander Isak (5.0) is the best option among forwards other than Haaland. Plan the next two Gameweeks too. In Gameweek 12, Haaland drops to 4.3 at the Emirates, and Bruno Fernandes (6.1, [H]BRE) becomes the top captain. In Gameweek 13, Haaland (6.7, [H]LEE) and Palmer (6.1, [H]CRY) lead again. That is another reason to bring Fernandes in this week: he gives you a strong captain for the one Gameweek in the next three where Haaland is not the obvious choice.
Who to sell before FPL Gameweek 11
Joao Pedro (7.7m, CHE) is the clearest sell. He is owned by 34.2%, and the model gives him 44, 38 and 40 minutes over [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY, for 3.0 → 2.0 → 2.4. Chelsea's program is good, but he is not playing enough of it. Why now: the good fixtures are the next three, then the run turns at Gameweek 14 ([H]LIV → [A]MCI). Moving him to Palmer or Rogers puts you in Chelsea's attack while the run is good.
Rayan Cherki (7.9m, MCI) is owned by 33.3% and projects 2.9 → 1.9 → 2.8 on about 40 minutes a game across [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE. Fulham at home is a good fixture, and Haaland projects 7.3 in it. Cherki's problem is his minutes, not the fixture. Why now: his best Gameweek of the three is this one, and 2.9 is still well behind Gomez or Tonali at less than 5.5m.
Riccardo Calafiori (5.9m, ARS) is owned by 48.5% but projects only 3.0 → 2.8 → 2.9 on about 65 minutes. That comes in the best defensive program in the game ([A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE). Why now: Arsenal's 1.15 expected clean sheets are worth the most when your defender plays the full game, and Gabriel gets 4.8 → 4.4 → 4.6 from the same fixtures. His Arsenal teammate Ezri Konsa (4.8m, ARS), owned by 23.4%, is a more urgent sell. His projected minutes fall from 40 to 30 to 20 over the three Gameweeks.
Josko Gvardiol (5.7m, MCI), owned by 25.3%, projects 3.3 → 2.1 → 3.3 on 68 minutes over [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE. Fulham is a decent first fixture for him, so this isn't urgent. If you need the funds for Fernandes, though, Gvardiol frees them up with the smallest loss: his 8.7 over three Gameweeks is 4.0 less than van Hecke's, who costs 0.7m less.
Two highly-owned players to keep rather than sell: Pascal Gross (6.3m, BHA) still projects 5.1 at Hull, so sell him after [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU starts, not before. Gameweek 12 is the time to swap him for Gomez. Maxim De Cuyper (5.4m, BHA) follows the same pattern: 5.3 now, then 3.4 by Gameweek 13.
Best FPL Gameweek 11 Free Hit team
If you play the Free Hit in Gameweek 11, the model's best squad for this round only is:
- GK: Mike Penders (CHE, 4.4m, 3.9) – bench: Zion Suzuki (AVL, 5.0m)
- DEF: Luka Vuskovic (BHA, 5.2m, 5.2), Maxim De Cuyper (BHA, 5.4m, 5.3), Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT, 5.0m, 4.5) – bench: Antonio Silva (BOU, 5.1m), Milan van Ewijk (COV, 3.9m)
- MID: Cole Palmer (CHE, 9.8m, 5.5), Mohammed Kudus (TOT, 6.6m, 5.5), Pascal Gross (BHA, 6.3m, 5.1), Mathys Tel (TOT, 5.6m, 4.8) – bench: Jack Rudoni (COV, 4.9m)
- FWD: Erling Haaland (MCI, 15.8m, 7.3, captain), Alexander Isak (LIV, 9.2m, 5.0), Thiago Rodrigues (BRE, 7.8m, 4.9)
The XI projects 64.3 including the captain, with no more than three players from any club. Selling prices differ from manager to manager, so check the live solve on the FPL optimal teams page for the exact best squad you can afford. Before the deadline, confirm the starters on FPL predicted lineups. Penders is a pick for this Gameweek only, because his projected minutes fall after it.
FPL Gameweek 11 transfer summary
- Buy: Bruno Fernandes before his Gameweek 12-14 run, Vuskovic over De Cuyper as the Brighton defender to keep, Gomez as the Brighton midfielder to keep, and Alisson or Jacquet for Liverpool's [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN.
- Captain: Haaland in Gameweek 11, Fernandes in Gameweek 12, Haaland or Palmer in Gameweek 13.
- Sell: Joao Pedro, Cherki, Konsa and Calafiori, all because of their minutes rather than their fixtures.
- Buy for one Gameweek only: Thiago Rodrigues at home to Everton.
More from the FPL differentials guide and the FPL preview hub. Last round's picks are in the FPL Gameweek 10 preview.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 11?
Erling Haaland. He projects 7.3 at home to Fulham, 14.6 as captain, and nobody else in the game projects more than 5.5 this Gameweek. Cole Palmer ([H]LEE) and Mohammed Kudus ([H]IPS) are the alternatives at 5.5 each.
Should I buy Bruno Fernandes for Gameweek 11?
Yes. Fernandes projects 4.7 at Liverpool, then 6.1 against Brentford, 6.0 at Newcastle and 6.6 against Coventry in Gameweek 14. His 16.8 over Gameweeks 11-13 is the most of any midfielder.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before Gameweek 11?
Yes. The model projects him at around 40 minutes a game, for 3.0, 2.0 and 2.4 points across Chelsea's good run of Leeds, Forest and Palace. Palmer and Rogers are the better ways into that run.
Who are the best differentials for FPL Gameweek 11?
Mohammed Kudus (2.0% owned, 5.5 at home to Ipswich), Alisson Becker (4.1%, 11.6 over three Gameweeks), Diego Gomez (4.0%, 13.4) and Luka Vuskovic (7.9%, 13.5, the best three-Gameweek total of any defender under 8.0m).
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 11?
Milan van Ewijk at 3.9m: 0.95 points per million this Gameweek and 84 projected minutes, with Coventry's Palace, Leeds and Ipswich run. Ethan Pinnock (4.5m) and Andrew Robertson (4.3m, Tottenham at home to Ipswich) are the alternatives.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.