FPL Gameweek 10 tips: captain picks and best buys
FPL Gameweek 10 preview: best buys, differentials, sells and a Free Hit team
Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10 is the last round before the international break. Gameweek 11 does not start until 21 November, so whatever you do with this transfer has to work across the break as well. Read this week through the next three rounds rather than the next three days. Arsenal open the best run in the game with Arsenal - Hull at home, Brighton's next three are almost as strong, and one of the most-owned forwards in the game misses the round entirely.
Every number below is from the model's current projections. Full rankings are on the FPL player picks page, and you can check every expected starter on the FPL predicted lineups. Last round's analysis is in the FPL Gameweek 9 preview.
FPL Gameweek 10 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Arsenal's [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI is the best three-gameweek run in the game on both measures: 6.03 expected goals and 1.34 expected clean sheets. The Manchester City game in Gameweek 12 is the one to plan around, not a reason to stay away. Hull at home carries an 81% win probability and a 58% clean-sheet chance, the strongest single fixture of the round.
Brighton are the quiet second. [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW adds up to 5.82 expected goals, and their best week is Gameweek 11 at Hull rather than this one. That makes Brighton the club to buy into now, before the good run starts. Liverpool ([A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE, 5.49) and Bournemouth ([A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL, 4.85) are both solid. Tottenham have only the tenth-best attacking run but are joint second for clean sheets at 0.96, which makes their defence the cheap one to target.
At the other end, Hull ([A]ARS → [H]BHA → [A]CRY) have just 2.47 expected goals across three games. Coventry, Ipswich and Newcastle are the other programs to avoid. Newcastle's [A]FUL → [H]ARS → [A]BHA gives them 0.51 expected clean sheets, the second-lowest in the league. All 20 clubs play once in each of Gameweeks 10, 11 and 12, so the totals below compare like with like.
| Team | GW10 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW10-12) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS | [H]HUL | 81% | 2.65 | 58% | [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI | 6.03 | 1.34 |
| BHA | [H]BRE | 49% | 1.83 | 28% | [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW | 5.82 | 0.96 |
| LIV | [A]CRY | 55% | 1.98 | 31% | [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE | 5.49 | 0.90 |
| MCI | [A]NFO | 56% | 1.96 | 33% | [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS | 5.32 | 0.92 |
| BOU | [A]IPS | 49% | 1.75 | 30% | [A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL | 4.85 | 0.86 |
| CHE | [A]SUN | 44% | 1.58 | 28% | [A]SUN → [H]LEE → [A]NFO | 4.82 | 0.85 |
| MUN | [H]AVL | 44% | 1.72 | 24% | [H]AVL → [A]LIV → [H]BRE | 4.75 | 0.64 |
| TOT | [A]LEE | 36% | 1.33 | 26% | [A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN | 4.47 | 0.96 |
| NEW | [A]FUL | 31% | 1.34 | 20% | [A]FUL → [H]ARS → [A]BHA | 3.45 | 0.51 |
| IPS | [H]BOU | 26% | 1.21 | 17% | [H]BOU → [A]TOT → [H]AVL | 3.41 | 0.53 |
| COV | [A]EVE | 20% | 1.01 | 16% | [A]EVE → [H]CRY → [A]LEE | 3.23 | 0.57 |
| HUL | [A]ARS | 5% | 0.55 | 7% | [A]ARS → [H]BHA → [A]CRY | 2.47 | 0.35 |
Everton are the fixture to watch on its own. [H]COV is a 56% win and a 36% clean sheet, but [A]BRE → [H]LIV follows, so an Everton asset is mostly a Gameweek 10 play. The full fixture grid for the rest of the season is on the FPL schedule.
FPL Gameweek 10 best buys by position
Goalkeepers for Gameweek 10
David Raya (6.2m, ARS) is the top keeper in the game at 4.6 → 4.1 → 3.8 over [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI, 12.5 points across three. Nearly half of managers (46.2%) already have him, so owning him protects your rank rather than gaining on it. Still, no other keeper has a 58% clean-sheet chance this week.
If you want a cheaper keeper, the ranking for this round and the ranking over three rounds disagree. Jordan Pickford has the second-best Gameweek 10 at 3.9, but [A]BRE and [H]LIV follow and he falls to 3.2 twice. Antonin Kinsky (4.4m, TOT) starts lower at 3.3 but goes 3.3 → 3.9 → 3.7 over [A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN for 10.9 points, more than Pickford's 10.3, at 1.1m less. If you are buying a keeper to keep, buy Kinsky. Djordje Petrovic (4.5m, BOU) is the flat alternative at 3.6 → 3.6 → 3.4 over [A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL, owned by just 3.0%.
Defenders for Gameweek 10
Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) is the highest projection of any player this round at 6.1, with a 0.54 clean-sheet probability and 0.15 expected goals from set pieces. His program is [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI and he runs 6.1 → 4.7 → 4.1, the best three-round total of any defender at 14.9. He is the premium defender to own through the break.
Ezri Konsa (4.7m, ARS) is the value route into the same clean sheets. At 5.3 → 3.7 → 3.3 he scores 1.13 points per million this week, the best of any defender. He also tops his position on the six-round weighted score per million. If you want Arsenal's defence without paying for Gabriel, he is the player to buy.
Look past this round and Brighton's run comes into view. James Tarkowski (6.2m, EVE) out-scores Luka Vuskovic (5.2m, BHA) in Gameweek 10, 5.2 to 4.6. Vuskovic's [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW takes him 4.6 → 5.1 → 4.4, though, for 14.1 points, second only to Gabriel, and owned by 6.9%. Tarkowski reaches 13.2 for 1.0m more, and his best week is the one before Everton's harder fixtures arrive. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Vuskovic.
Further down the price list, Jan Paul van Hecke (4.9m, TOT) is the cleanest hold: 4.0 → 4.3 → 4.2 over [A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN, with nothing to plan around. James Hill (5.5m, BOU) is a 2.2%-owned differential at 4.2 → 4.2 → 3.8 over [A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL, and Bournemouth host Hull in Gameweek 14, when he projects 5.1. Jérémy Jacquet (5.1m, LIV) covers the Liverpool defence at 4.3 → 3.7 → 3.8 over [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE, owned by 4.4%. The cheapest useful defender is James Justin (4.5m, LEE). His [H]TOT → [A]CHE → [H]COV goes 3.9 → 2.9 → 4.5, so he is a squad filler who plays two of the three rather than an every-week starter.
Midfielders for Gameweek 10
This position has the clearest gap between this round and the horizon. Martin Ødegaard has the best Gameweek 10 of any midfielder at 5.7. Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) is the better long hold. His program [H]AVL → [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW → [H]COV → [A]CRY runs 5.3 → 4.3 → 5.2 → 4.8 → 5.9, the best six-round weighted score of any midfielder at 18.1. The Liverpool trip is the one soft week, and three of the next five are above 4.8. Buy him now and you are set through December.
Martin Ødegaard (6.7m, ARS) is still worth it at 16.9% ownership. [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI takes him 5.7 → 4.3 → 3.9, and he carries 0.32 expected goals and 0.27 expected assists this week. His case is strongest this round and fades after it, so he suits a manager who wants the Hull game more than a long hold.
Cole Palmer (9.8m, CHE) is Chelsea's penalty taker and the steady premium: 5.0 → 4.6 → 4.0 over [A]SUN → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, then 4.9 in Gameweek 13. Florian Wirtz (7.2m, LIV) is the mid-price differential at 5.1% ownership, 4.7 → 4.5 → 3.9 over [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE.
The hidden gem of the round is Diego Gomez (5.0m, BHA). He goes 4.5 → 4.7 → 4.7 over [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW for 13.9 points, the same three-round total as Ødegaard at 1.7m less. He has the best points per million of any midfielder this round and over the weighted six. Only 4.0% of managers own him. Brighton's run is the reason, and it starts now.
For a cheaper filler, Ethan Ampadu (5.3m, LEE) is nailed at 84 projected minutes and goes 4.0 → 3.5 → 3.5 over [H]TOT → [A]CHE → [H]COV, owned by 0.7%. James Garner (6.0m, EVE) is a 0.2%-owned Gameweek 10 punt at 4.4, but [A]BRE → [H]LIV pulls him to 3.8 and 3.7, so treat him as a short-term pick.
Forwards for Gameweek 10
Erling Haaland (15.8m, MCI) is a hold: 5.9 → 5.8 → 3.2 → 5.2 over [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE, with 0.73 expected goals this week and Manchester City's penalties. The trip to Arsenal in Gameweek 12 is his one bad week in the next four, and that is not enough to sell a 78.9%-owned player.
Kai Havertz and Alexander Isak (9.1m, LIV) both project 4.7 this week, so the horizon decides. Isak goes 4.7 → 4.5 → 3.7 → 4.3 over [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN for 12.9 over three. Kai Havertz (7.4m, ARS), Arsenal's penalty taker, goes 4.7 → 3.6 → 3.3 over [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI for 11.6. If you are buying a forward to keep, buy Isak. Havertz suits a manager who wants the Hull game and 1.7m of change.
Charalampos Kostoulas (5.8m, BHA) is the steady value forward on Brighton's run: 3.8 → 3.9 → 3.9 over [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW, with the best weighted points per million of any forward. Gonzalo Garcia (6.0m, FUL) is the 4.7%-owned differential at 4.3 → 3.0 → 3.7 over [H]NEW → [A]MCI → [H]BOU. The City trip is a real dip, but two good fixtures out of three is a buy at that ownership. Thierno Barry is 4.1 at home to Coventry and drops to 3.1 for the next two, so he is a one-week play only.
FPL Gameweek 10 captain picks
The model's top projection this round belongs to a defender. Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) is at 6.1 at home to Hull, the highest number of any player in Gameweek 10, and his [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI keeps him above 4.0 for all three. Hull have 0.55 expected goals, the lowest of any club this week, and Gabriel has set-piece goal threat on top of the clean sheet. That makes him the strongest case by the numbers, and a real differential captain at 23.8% ownership.
Erling Haaland (15.8m, MCI) is 0.2 behind at 5.9 at Nottingham Forest, and his [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS gives him the best two-week captaincy run in the game. He is the safe choice for rank. At 78.9% ownership, captaining anyone else is a bet against the field. Haaland also has the higher ceiling: 0.73 expected goals plus penalties, against a defender whose points come mostly from a clean sheet. Martin Ødegaard is third at 5.7.
Plan beyond this week. Haaland is the top projection in Gameweek 11 at 5.8 at home to Fulham. In Gameweek 12 he drops to 3.2 at Arsenal, and Mbeumo leads with 5.2 at home to Brentford. A squad holding both has a strong captain in each of the next three gameweeks, and that is another reason to make the Mbeumo move now.
Who to sell before FPL Gameweek 10
Joao Pedro (7.8m, CHE) is the clearest sell, and 46.2% of managers own him. He is listed as unavailable until 21 November, so he scores nothing this gameweek. When he returns he projects only 2.6 → 3.0 → 3.4 over Chelsea's [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY. Why now: keeping him costs you a guaranteed zero in Gameweek 10, and even back to fitness he trails Isak in every round. There is no week in which holding him pays off.
Rayan Cherki (8.0m, MCI), owned by 37.4%, is a minutes problem, not a fixtures problem. Manchester City's [A]NFO → [H]FUL is a decent pair. He projects only 33 minutes, though, and 2.0 → 2.4 → 1.8. Why now: none of the next six gameweeks takes him above 3.2, so waiting does not improve the sale. Moving him now puts 8.0m into Mbeumo or Wirtz before their runs start.
Riccardo Calafiori (5.9m, ARS) is owned by 48.3% and is due back from injury on 1 November. His program is Arsenal's [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI, and Hull at home is a good fixture, and 4.0 is a fair projection for it. The problem is his 68 projected minutes: Konsa gets more of the same clean sheets at 5.3 → 3.7 → 3.3 against Calafiori's 4.0 → 2.9 → 2.6, and costs 1.2m less. Why now: the swap gains points in this round as well as the next two, so there is no reason to wait for the Hull game first.
Lewis Hall (5.3m, NEW) is the timing sell. He is owned by 20.4% and projects 3.2 → 2.7 → 2.7 over [A]FUL → [H]ARS → [A]BHA. Fulham away is the softest of the three. Why now: the run behind it is Arsenal and Brighton, and with the international break straight after this round, the transfer you make now is the one that covers both of those games.
Two more for the watch list. Josko Gvardiol (26.6% owned) goes 3.6 → 3.9 → 2.4, so you can wait a round on him: play Fulham at home in Gameweek 11 and sell before Arsenal. Nicolas Jackson (23.1% owned) has a decent Aston Villa run but projects only 68 minutes and 3.1 → 3.0 → 2.7. He is an upgrade target whenever you have a spare transfer, not an emergency.
Best Free Hit team for FPL Gameweek 10
If you are playing a Free Hit this week, the squad with the highest Gameweek 10 projection that fits the solver's ceiling is a 4-5-1 with three Arsenal players:
- GK: Jordan Pickford (5.5m, EVE) 3.9
- DEF: Gabriel (8.0m, ARS) 6.1, Ezri Konsa (4.7m, ARS) 5.3, James Tarkowski (6.2m, EVE) 5.2, Luka Vuskovic (5.2m, BHA) 4.6
- MID: Martin Ødegaard (6.7m, ARS) 5.7, Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m, MUN) 5.3, Cole Palmer (9.8m, CHE) 5.0, Marcus Tavernier (6.5m, BOU) 4.8, Diego Gomez (5.0m, BHA) 4.5
- FWD: Erling Haaland (15.8m, MCI) 5.9
The starting XI projects 56.3 points, or 62.4 with Gabriel as captain. The bench is cheap enablers, with Kinsky as back-up keeper. It also uses Everton's one good week twice, which is exactly what a Free Hit is for. For the exact live optimum, with your own settings, see the FPL optimal teams solver. For the bookmaker view behind these numbers, the FPL market probabilities page has every club's odds.
More gameweek analysis is in our FPL preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 10?
Gabriel has the highest projection of any player in FPL Gameweek 10 at 6.1, at home to Hull. Erling Haaland is a close second at 5.9 at Nottingham Forest and is the safe choice for rank at 78.9% ownership. Martin Ødegaard is third at 5.7.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before Gameweek 10?
Yes. Joao Pedro is listed as unavailable until 21 November, so he scores nothing in Gameweek 10. On his return he projects only 2.6, 3.0 and 3.4 over the following three gameweeks, below Alexander Isak in every round.
Which budget defenders are best for FPL Gameweek 10?
Ezri Konsa (4.7m) is the best value defender in Gameweek 10 at 5.3 and 1.13 points per million, with Arsenal's [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI. Jan Paul van Hecke (4.9m) is the steadiest cheap hold at 4.0 → 4.3 → 4.2 on Tottenham's run.
Who are the best FPL differentials for Gameweek 10?
Diego Gomez (5.0m, 4.0% owned) is the top differential, at 4.5 → 4.7 → 4.7 on Brighton's [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW. James Hill (2.2%), Florian Wirtz (5.1%) and Gonzalo Garcia (4.7%) are the other low-ownership picks the model rates.
What is the best Free Hit team for FPL Gameweek 10?
The highest-projected Free Hit squad is a 4-5-1 built around Gabriel, Ezri Konsa and Martin Ødegaard from Arsenal, with Haaland up front and Mbeumo, Palmer, Tavernier and Gomez in midfield. Its starting XI projects 56.3 points before the captain.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.