Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12: captains and best buys

Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12 tips: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12 arrives out of numerical order: its eight fixtures are played on 24–25 October, a week after Gameweek 24, and Gameweek 25 follows from 30 October. So the transfer you make this week is really a bet on three gameweeks, 12, 25 and 26, and that is how every pick below is argued. All 16 clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The round is a chance to get onto the Sarpsborg 08 and Bodø/Glimt programs before they peak, and the right moment to move on from two very popular players whose runs fade after this week.

Every number here comes from our model's current projections. The full pool is on the Eliteserien Fantasy player picks page, and our Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 24 preview covers the previous round.

Gameweek 12 to 26: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning

Bodø/Glimt own the best three-gameweek run in the game: [H]VIF → [H]VIK → [A]TRO, worth 7.82 expected goals. Gameweek 12 is the headline fixture of the round, with an 82% win probability, 3.42 expected goals and a 38% clean-sheet chance against a Vålerenga side the model gives 0.98 goals. The home game against Viking in Gameweek 25 is the one to plan around rather than avoid, at 54% to win.

Sarpsborg 08 are the program buy that the ownership numbers have not caught up with: [H]AAL → [H]KBK → [A]H-K. Two home games at 61% and 60% to win, each close to 30% for a clean sheet, give them 6.05 expected goals and 0.77 expected clean sheets over the three. That is two very good fixtures in a row, which is enough on its own. Viking ([H]TRO → [A]BOD → [H]KFU) match them on goals at 6.06, with the Bodø/Glimt trip in the middle. Molde ([H]FRE → [A]BRA → [A]SAN) have the second-best fixture of this round at 65%, then two away games.

For defenders, Lillestrøm lead on expected clean sheets at 0.86 with [H]BRA → [A]STA → [H]AAL, and Rosenborg are close at 0.81 with a run that improves each week: [A]H-K → [A]FRE → [H]STA. At the bottom, Aalesund ([A]S08 → [H]SAN → [A]LIL, 0.32 expected clean sheets) and Vålerenga ([A]BOD → [H]TRO → [A]KBK, 0.41) are the defences to avoid. Check the full Eliteserien Fantasy fixture schedule for the runs beyond Gameweek 26.

Win probabilities come from the betting markets; the Eliteserien market probabilities page shows every match.

Gameweek 12 goalkeepers

Leander Øy (4.5m, S08) is the goalkeeper to buy, with a program of [H]AAL → [H]KBK → [A]H-K. He projects 3.8 → 3.9 → 3.4, and the two home games each carry a clean-sheet chance near 30%. At 9.6% ownership he totals 11.1 over the three gameweeks, 0.1 behind the best keeper in the game.

Pontus Dahlberg (4.8m, LIL) is the hold: 3.3 → 3.9 → 4.0 over [H]BRA → [A]STA → [H]AAL, the highest three-gameweek total of any goalkeeper at 11.2. His Gameweek 12 is the weakest of the three, so if you already own him there is no reason to move, and if you are buying one keeper to keep, he and Øy are the pair.

Emil Ødegaard (4.6m, KFU) is the cheap two-gameweek option and the top-projected keeper this round at 4.0. KFUM go [A]KBK → [H]H-K → [A]VIK, so he holds at 4.0 in Gameweek 25 and drops to 2.6 in Gameweek 26. Owned by 2.0%. Nikita Haikin (5.6m, BOD) has the best single clean-sheet chance of the round at 38%, but Bodø/Glimt's run is built for attackers, not their keeper: he is 10.5 over the three, behind all three above.

Gameweek 12 defenders

Fredrik Sjøvold (7.7m, BOD) is the premium defender and already owned by 37.0%. He projects 5.2 → 3.6 → 3.9 over [H]VIF → [H]VIK → [A]TRO, the top three-gameweek total of any defender at 12.7, helped by 0.21 expected assists this week. Keep him.

Adrian Pereira (6.0m, RBK) is the defender whose program rises: 3.8 → 3.7 → 4.7 over [A]H-K → [A]FRE → [H]STA, 12.2 in total, second among defenders. The home game against Start in Gameweek 26 is a 38% clean-sheet chance, the best of that week. Owned by 18.3%.

Eirik Wichne (4.8m, S08) is the hidden gem of the position. He projects 4.3 → 4.2 → 2.9 over [H]AAL → [H]KBK → [A]H-K, 11.4 in total, joint third among all defenders, and only 0.5% of managers own him. Pair him with Øy and both of the Sarpsborg 08 home clean sheets count twice.

Eirik Saunes (4.3m, KFU) is the budget pick at 1.00 points per million this round, the best of any defender. KFUM go [A]KBK → [H]H-K → [A]VIK and he projects 4.3 → 4.0 → 1.7, so he is a two-gameweek buy: plan to move him on before the Viking trip in Gameweek 26. Teammate Håkon Hoseth (4.9m, 12.0% owned) carries more goal threat at 0.13 expected goals and runs 4.2 → 4.4 → 2.0.

Here the round and the program disagree. Martin Linnes (5.4m, MOL) is the second-highest defender this gameweek at 4.7, but [A]BRA → [A]SAN takes him to 2.5 and 3.1. Frederik Elkær (5.5m, LIL) is the reverse: 3.0 this week, then 4.1 and 4.3 over [A]STA → [H]AAL. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Pereira or Wichne, not Linnes. Elkær is the buy for Gameweek 25.

Gameweek 12 midfielders

Ole Blomberg (9.8m, BOD) is the best player in the game over the next three gameweeks. He projects 7.6 → 6.2 → 5.8 over [H]VIF → [H]VIK → [A]TRO for 19.6 points, top of the whole pool in Gameweek 12 and again in Gameweek 25, built on 0.65 expected goals against Vålerenga. Only 13.0% own him, which makes him both the premium buy and the biggest differential of the round.

Sondre Sørli (6.5m, S08) is the value midfielder: 5.5 → 5.3 → 4.2 over [H]AAL → [H]KBK → [A]H-K, 15.0 in total, fourth among all midfielders, at 5.1% ownership and 0.85 points per million this week. He plays 79 projected minutes, so the minutes are safe.

Niklas Castro (7.6m, BRA) is where the round and the program disagree most. He is only 4.7 this week at [A]LIL, but 5.7 and 5.2 follow over [H]MOL → [A]FRE, and his 15.6 over three is third among midfielders, ahead of Sørli. He is owned by 1.5%. Buying him now costs very little this week and has him in place for the two better fixtures.

Sondre Auklend (6.6m, BOD) is the cheap way into the Bodø/Glimt run: 5.5 → 4.4 → 3.8 over [H]VIF → [H]VIK → [A]TRO, owned by 1.2%. He projects higher than Patrick Berg (9.1m) this week for 2.5m less.

Sondre Milian Granaas (5.2m, MOL) is the budget midfielder at 0.90 points per million, the best in his price range, with 4.7 this week at [H]FRE. Molde's program fades after that ([A]BRA → [A]SAN: 3.1, 3.4), so he is a one-gameweek buy unless you need a cheap fifth midfielder. Rasmus Eggen Vinge (5.2m, KFU) is the steadier alternative at 4.3 → 4.0 → 2.4. Looking further ahead, Felix Va (6.2m, LIL) climbs to 5.6 in Gameweek 26 against Aalesund.

Gameweek 12 forwards

Ola Brynhildsen (9.4m, BOD) is the forward differential: 5.9 → 4.7 → 3.6 over [H]VIF → [H]VIK → [A]TRO, the top forward this week, with 0.54 expected goals. Only 1.2% own him. He projects 67 minutes, so check the Eliteserien predicted lineups before the deadline.

Daniel Seland Karlsbakk (8.7m, S08) is the more secure route to the same goal threat: 0.54 expected goals and 84 projected minutes, 5.2 → 4.9 → 3.4 over [H]AAL → [H]KBK → [A]H-K. The two home games are the case; the trip to Hamarkameratene is the point to reassess. Owned by 15.8%.

Peter Christiansen (10.6m, VIK) is a hold for the 35.8% who own him: 5.1 → 3.7 → 5.4 over [H]TRO → [A]BOD → [H]KFU. The Bodø/Glimt away game is a dip, not a reason to sell, with two good home games around it.

Bjørn Martin Kristensen (5.0m, KFU) is the budget forward at 0.82 points per million, the best of any forward: 4.1 → 4.0 → 2.4 over [A]KBK → [H]H-K → [A]VIK. Like the KFUM defenders, he is a two-gameweek pick. Sebastian Holm Mathisen (5.2m, SAN) is the alternative with a flatter run, 3.5 → 4.0 → 3.2.

Gameweek 12 captain picks

Ole Blomberg (9.8m, BOD) is the captain, at 7.6 projected points against Vålerenga, so 15.2 with the armband. The next-best projection this week is 1.4 points behind him, and he is also the top projection in Gameweek 25.

Zlatko Tripic (12.7m, VIK) is the second choice at 6.2 against Tromsø, and the safe pick for the 66.1% who own him. Ola Brynhildsen is third at 5.9. Looking ahead, Blomberg leads again in Gameweek 25 (6.2 against Viking), and Tripic takes over in Gameweek 26 at 6.4 against KFUM. Owning both covers the captaincy for all three gameweeks.

Who to sell before Gameweek 12

Emil Breivik (7.6m, MOL) is the clearest sale, and this is the week to do it. Molde's [H]FRE is a good fixture, with a 65% win probability, and 5.7 is a respectable return. But [A]BRA → [A]SAN → [H]BOD follows, and he drops to 3.9, 4.3 and 3.5. Sørli already matches him this week at 5.5, costs 1.1m less and outscores him by 1.1 over the three gameweeks. Owned by 49.1%.

Henrik Heggheim (6.5m, VIK, 33.7%) and Henrik Falchener (6.3m, VIK, 23.4%) are the defensive sales. [H]TRO is a decent fixture for Viking, with a 30% clean-sheet chance. But [A]BOD follows, and both drop to under 2 points. Wichne out-projects both of them this week, so there is no point waiting for Gameweek 25.

Andreas Helmersen (8.7m, BOD) is owned by 23.0% but projects only 29 minutes. Bodø/Glimt have the best fixture of the round, and he projects 2.1 in it and 1.5 in Gameweek 25. Brynhildsen, projected for 67 minutes, is the Bodø/Glimt forward to own, so if you want a share of that run, swap one for the other now.

Amin Chiakha (8.1m, RBK) is owned by 33.8% and is flagged as unavailable in our injury data, with no return date listed. He projects 2.5 → 2.9 → 3.9 over [A]H-K → [A]FRE → [H]STA. The minutes problem is now. If you want a Rosenborg midfielder for that run, Emil Konradsen Ceide (8.2m) projects 4.3 → 4.4 → 4.9.

For the squad that maximises projected points this gameweek, see the Eliteserien Fantasy optimal teams, and find every round's analysis in our Eliteserien Fantasy preview hub. How we build the lineups behind these minutes is explained in predicted lineups explained.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12?

Ole Blomberg is the captain, at 7.6 projected points at home to Vålerenga. Zlatko Tripic (6.2) and Ola Brynhildsen (5.9) are the alternatives, and Blomberg is also the top projection in Gameweek 25.

Should I sell Emil Breivik before Gameweek 12?

Yes. Molde's home game against Fredrikstad is a good fixture and he projects 5.7, but he drops to 3.9, 4.3 and 3.5 after it. Sondre Sørli projects 5.5 this week for 1.1m less and outscores him over the next three gameweeks.

Which budget defenders are best for Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12?

Eirik Saunes (4.3m, KFUM) has the best points per million of any defender at 1.00, with 4.3 projected, but he is a two-gameweek pick. Eirik Wichne (4.8m, Sarpsborg 08) projects 4.3 → 4.2 → 2.9 and is owned by only 0.5%.

Best differentials for Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 12?

Ole Blomberg (13.0% owned) is the top projection in the game for the next three gameweeks. Ola Brynhildsen (1.2%), Niklas Castro (1.5%) and Eirik Wichne (0.5%) are the low-ownership picks with strong programs.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.