Bundesliga Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 1 Preview

Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1 preview: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems

Bundesliga Fantasy 2026/2027 opens on Friday 28 August, when Bayern München host VfB Stuttgart at 20:30. You have 150.0m to fill a 15-man squad, five free transfers every round, and no chips to save for a rainy day. That last detail matters: there is no Wildcard and no Free Hit here, so the season is won by being right slightly more often than everyone else, week after week.

Before any of the picks, one rule of this game deserves your full attention, because it quietly invalidates most fantasy instincts you have built up elsewhere.

There are no clean sheet points — and it changes everything

Bundesliga Fantasy does not reward clean sheets. Not for goalkeepers, not for defenders. What it rewards instead is activity:

• Each save: 35 points. Each goal conceded by a keeper or defender: −20.
• Goals: 200 for a goalkeeper, 120 for a defender, 100 for a midfielder or forward.
• Assists: 70 for a defender, 60 for a midfielder, 40 for a forward.
• Shots: 20 for a defender, 15 for a midfielder or forward. Shot assists: 10 and 7.
• Duels won, aerials won and dribbles completed: 12 each for a goalkeeper or defender, 7 for a midfielder or forward.
• Successful passes into the middle or final third: 1 point each. Playing 70+ minutes: 30.

Read that list again and the consequence is obvious. A goalkeeper who makes five saves banks 175 points from saves alone. A keeper who keeps a comfortable clean sheet behind a dominant side, facing two shots, banks 70. In this game you want busy goalkeepers, not safe ones. If you are new to how we model this, our guide on what expected points means in fantasy football explains how these scoring weights turn into the projections below.

Round 1 fixtures: where the points are

Nine matches, spread across Friday to Sunday. These are the four that shape team selection, with our model's win probability and projected goals for each side:

Borussia Dortmund − Hamburger SV is the standout mismatch. Dortmund have averaged 2.17 xG and just 1.18 xG conceded per game across their last ten, with a non-penalty xG difference of +1.00 and four clean sheets. Hamburger SV have conceded 2.28 xG per game over the same span with a non-penalty xG difference of −1.02 and no clean sheets. That gap is why Dortmund attackers and the HSV goalkeeper are both attractive here — for opposite reasons.

Bayern are the other obvious well: 2.62 xG and 3.1 actual goals per game in their last ten, at home to a Stuttgart side that has conceded 1.85 xG per game and kept one clean sheet in ten. Check the full slate on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule and the underlying numbers on market probabilities.

Goalkeepers: the biggest edge in the game

This is where Round 1 is won, and where most managers will get it wrong by importing habits from other fantasy games. Projected saves drive everything:

Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) is the single best value pick in the game. He is projected for 4.53 saves away at Bayern and 165 xP, which is a PPM of 34.37 — the best of any goalkeeper by a wide margin. He costs less than a third of what Kobel does and projects 35 points more. If you want one pick that funds the rest of your squad, this is it.

Nahuel Noll (7.7m, SCP) is the best balance of price and ceiling at 183 xP, and his projection holds up: 169 in Round 2 and 191 in Round 3. Loris Karius (9.3m, S04) is the strongest keeper over a longer horizon — 183, then 207 in Round 2, the highest single-round goalkeeper projection in the opening six.

Moritz Nicolas (13.9m, BMG) tops the round outright at 200 xP on 4.90 projected saves at Leipzig, whose attack he will see plenty of. He is the premium option, though at 13.9m you are paying a lot for saves you can buy more cheaply elsewhere.

Note who is not on this list. Kobel and Neuer sit behind the two best defences in the division and project 130 and 142 respectively. They are perfectly good goalkeepers having a bad game economically, and that is the whole lesson of this scoring system.

Defenders: buy attacking output, not solidity

With no clean sheet reward and −20 per goal conceded, a defender earns his keep through shots (20 each), assists (70), duels and dribbles (12 each) — and above all through penalties.

Ramy Bensebaini (16.9m, BVB) is the premium pick at 179 xP, and the reason is his penalty share of 0.98. He is Dortmund's designated taker, a defender's goal is worth 120, and a converted penalty adds a further 60 on top. Against the leakiest defence in the round, that combination is the highest-floor premium defensive asset available.

Julian Ryerson (12.8m, BVB) is the better-value route into the same fixture at 144 xP. He has registered five assists from 4.61 xA in his last ten appearances — an xA90 of 0.51, extraordinary for a defender — and each of those is worth 70 points.

Nathaniel Brown (15.5m, FCB) at 163 xP is the way into the Bayern rout if you would rather not spend up on Kane and Olise together.

For value, Anthony Caci (9.2m, M05) at 140 xP and a 15.14 PPM is the pick, backed by an xA90 of 0.27 over his last ten. Team-mate Stefan Posch (10.2m, M05) matches him at 140 xP with a longer 88 projected minutes.

The budget bracket is genuinely productive here. Elias Baum (5.0m, FRA) returns 115 xP for a 22.98 PPM — the best of any defender projected above 100 points — and Marius Wolf (5.2m, FCA) gives you 112 xP at 21.53. At these prices you are buying 85 minutes of duels, crosses and passes into the final third, which is exactly what this scoring system pays for.

Midfielders: one premium stands alone

Michael Olise (37.5m, FCB) is the best midfielder in the game and the gap is not close. He projects 295 xP for Round 1 and 911 on a decay-weighted six-round view, well ahead of every other midfielder. Over his last ten appearances he has three goals and seven assists at an xGI90 of 1.02, from 26 shots. He is expensive enough to shape your entire squad, which is the honest argument against him rather than any doubt about the output.

Konstantinos Karetsas (15.7m, BVB) is the mid-price pick of the round at 207 xP, with an xA90 of 0.37 in his last ten and the Hamburger SV defence in front of him. His weighted six-round score of 618 is second among midfielders.

Nadiem Amiri (20.5m, M05) takes Mainz penalties (0.93 share) and brings an xGI90 of 0.92, projecting 193 xP. Brajan Gruda (12.6m, RBL) at 182 xP is the cheaper route into the Leipzig fixture, and Said El Mala (11.9m, KOE) offers 175 xP off the back of five goals from 4.72 xG and 39 shots — an xG90 of 0.53.

In the value bracket, Jan-Niklas Beste (7.8m, SCF) gives 160 xP at a 20.51 PPM, and Jae-Sung Lee (9.5m, M05) returns 166 xP against Paderborn. Fabian Rieder (10.9m, FCA) is worth a look purely because he takes Augsburg's penalties (0.93 share) at 164 xP.

Forwards: Kane, then a very good value tier

Harry Kane (38.1m, FCB) projects 357 xP, the highest of any player in the round, at home to Stuttgart. He has ten goals in his last ten appearances from an xG90 of 0.67 and 34 shots, and he takes Bayern's penalties. His weighted six-round score of 1152 is the highest in the game by a margin of over 200. He is the most expensive asset available and still the most defensible.

Serhou Guirassy (18.4m, BVB) is the best value premium in the game. He projects 302 xP — second only to Kane — for less than half the price, giving a 16.35 PPM against Kane's 9.38. His goalscoring rate is the strongest of any forward we track: an xG90 of 0.83 from 5.84 xG in 634 minutes, off 45 shots. If your budget will not stretch to Kane, this is not a compromise.

Luis Diaz (28.8m, FCB) at 294 xP and Patrik Schick (18.4m, B04) at 252 xP round out the premium tier. Schick has taken 60 shots in his last ten appearances at an xG90 of 0.76 and takes Leverkusen's penalties.

The value tier is where squads get built. Phillip Tietz (10.5m, M05) returns 213 xP for a 20.29 PPM against Paderborn, with four goals and 29 shots behind him. Ragnar Ache (12.2m, KOE) gives 212 xP at an xG90 of 0.50, and Afonso Moreira (9.8m, B04) offers 183 xP at 18.81 PPM.

Hidden gems: the picks that fund everything else

Ownership data does not exist yet in Round 1 — nobody has a team, so there are no true differentials to quote. What does exist is price inefficiency, and these are the four largest instances of it:

• Stefano Marino (2.5m, SCP) — 119 xP for two and a half million, a PPM of 47.91 that is the highest of any player in the game. This is not a bench filler having a good week: he has five goals from 3.96 xG and 30 shots in his last ten appearances, an xG90 of 0.45, and projects 99% likely to start.
• Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) — covered above, but worth repeating. 165 xP and 4.53 projected saves for the price of a bench defender.
• Lukas Petkov (6.3m, ELV) — 153 xP at a 24.45 PPM, and he takes Elversberg's penalties (0.93 share). Six goals and three assists in his last ten at an xGI90 of 0.51. His projection actually rises to 156 in Round 2.
• Adil Aouchiche (6.5m, S04) — 151 xP at 23.33 PPM, with an xGI90 of 0.76 and 26 shots over his last ten appearances. The best cheap midfielder on underlying numbers.

One more worth knowing: Livan Burcu (4.9m, FCU) at 145 xP and a 29.35 PPM. Cross-check any of these against the full pool on Bundesliga Fantasy player picks, and confirm the penalty duties on our penalty takers page before you commit.

Who to avoid in Round 1

Nobody owns a squad yet, so this is a trap list rather than a sell list — and the traps are expensive.

Do not buy these names at all this round. Our model projects effectively no minutes for them: Nico Schlotterbeck (23.8m, BVB) and Christoph Baumgartner (20.0m, RBL) both project zero, Jamal Musiala (22.6m, FCB) projects 11 minutes and 39 xP, Serge Gnabry (17.2m, FCB) three minutes, and Andrej Kramaric (12.5m, HOF) zero. Between them that is over 90m of budget doing nothing. Always sanity-check against predicted Bundesliga lineups before spending at the top of the price list.

The subtler trap is expensive defenders who do start. Edmond Tapsoba (21.0m, B04) plays 88 minutes and still only projects 103 xP, a PPM of 4.91, because his last ten appearances produced an xGI90 of just 0.12 and this game pays nothing for the clean sheets he helps produce. Jonathan Tah (16.4m, FCB) is worse value again at 81 xP. Both are excellent defenders and poor fantasy assets.

Finally, Deniz Undav (21.9m, STU) is a timing call rather than a bad player. He carries the highest combined goal-and-assist rate of any forward we track — an xGI90 of 1.08 over his last ten — but he opens away at Bayern and projects only 179 xP. His Round 2 projection jumps to 249. Buy him next round, not this one. Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.2m, STU) follows the same pattern: 94 xP now, 140 in Round 2.

Captain picks for Round 1

Your captain doubles his score, so this is the single highest-leverage decision of the round.

Captain Harry Kane. He is 56 points clear of the next-best option before doubling, he is on penalties, and he is at home to a side our model gives a 12% chance of winning. There is no clever angle to find here.

Serhou Guirassy is the alternative if you have gone a different route at the top end, and he is the better captain per million spent. Michael Olise is third and is the pick if you own him but not Kane.

Captaincy is a plan rather than a one-week choice, and this one is unusually simple: Kane also leads Round 2 (328) and Round 3 (279). Buying him is buying the armband for the next month. If you want the general framework, see our guide on how to pick a fantasy captain.

A recommended Round 1 squad

Built to the real constraints: 150.0m budget, two goalkeepers, five defenders, five midfielders and three forwards, a maximum of three players from any one club, and — importantly — every one of the 15 projected to actually start. That last condition costs a little projected upside and removes the risk of fielding ten men.

Starting XI (1-3-4-3) — 2,125 projected points, 2,482 with Kane captained

Bench: Fabian Bredlow (STU, 4.8m, 165) · Jan Gyamerah (ELV, 2.0m, 94) · Lukasz Poreba (ELV, 2.7m, 89) · Tjark Scheller (SCP, 3.3m, 85).

Budget breakdown: 149.5m of 150.0m spent, 0.5m in the bank. Kane and Guirassy alone account for 56.5m — 38% of the budget on two forwards — which is funded by spending only 19.4m on three starting defenders and 12.8m on the entire four-man bench. Every bench player is projected to start for his club, so the auto-substitution safety net is real rather than decorative.

Two notes on the construction. Elversberg appear three times, which is the maximum allowed, but only Petkov starts — Gyamerah and Poreba are cheap enablers who happen to play 85+ minutes. And the squad deliberately owns both sides of Mainz 05 − Paderborn: Tietz and Caci for the Mainz attack, Noll and Scheller for Paderborn. In a scoring system built on saves, that is a genuine hedge rather than a contradiction, and it is one of the more useful quirks of this game.

This is a strong starting point rather than a prescription. The live solver will always beat a hand-built squad, so run your own constraints through optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy, and use player data to compare any swap you are considering. Once you have committed, track it on My Team.

How to approach the season

Five free transfers a round with no points penalty makes this a weekly optimisation game, not a long-term hold game. Do not agonise over a 3.0m defender for Round 4; you will have thirty transfers between now and then. Two habits will serve you better than any single pick:

First, re-check goalkeeper fixtures every round. Save volume is the most predictable large edge in this scoring system, and it moves week to week — Karius jumps from 183 to 207 between Rounds 1 and 2, while Bredlow falls from 165 to 133. Second, chase minutes before you chase names. A 5.0m defender playing 85 minutes beats a 21.0m defender playing 88 if the cheaper one wins more duels, and in Round 1 that is exactly what the numbers say.

More rounds and more analysis in the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub, and if you want to understand how we grade opponent strength, start with our guide to fixture difficulty ratings or browse all our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Harry Kane (38.1m, FCB). He projects 357 xP at home to VfB Stuttgart, which becomes 715 captained, and that is 56 points clear of the next-best option before doubling. He has ten goals in his last ten appearances at an xG90 of 0.67 and takes Bayern's penalties. Serhou Guirassy (18.4m, BVB) at 302 xP is the alternative if you do not own Kane, and Michael Olise (37.5m, FCB) at 295 xP is third.

Which goalkeeper is the best pick for Round 1?

Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) on value and Moritz Nicolas (13.9m, BMG) on raw ceiling. Bundesliga Fantasy awards 35 points per save and nothing for a clean sheet, so you want keepers who face shots. Bredlow projects 4.53 saves away at Bayern for 165 xP, a PPM of 34.37 that leads all goalkeepers. Nicolas projects 4.90 saves at RB Leipzig for 200 xP, the highest of any keeper. Premium keepers behind good defences, such as Gregor Kobel at 130 xP, are poor value in this format.

Which budget players should I buy in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Stefano Marino (2.5m, SCP) is the standout at 119 xP for a PPM of 47.91, the highest in the game, backed by five goals from 30 shots in his last ten appearances. Lukas Petkov (6.3m, ELV) offers 153 xP and takes Elversberg's penalties, Adil Aouchiche (6.5m, S04) gives 151 xP at an xGI90 of 0.76, and Elias Baum (5.0m, FRA) is the best budget defender at 115 xP. These cheap picks are what let you afford Kane and Guirassy together.

Who should I avoid in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Any expensive player our model does not expect to start: Nico Schlotterbeck (23.8m) and Christoph Baumgartner (20.0m) project zero minutes, Jamal Musiala (22.6m) projects 11 minutes, and Serge Gnabry (17.2m) three. Also avoid premium defenders bought for solidity, such as Edmond Tapsoba (21.0m, 103 xP) and Jonathan Tah (16.4m, 81 xP), because there are no clean sheet points to reward them. Deniz Undav (21.9m, STU) is worth waiting on — 179 xP away at Bayern in Round 1, but 249 in Round 2.

How many transfers do I get in Bundesliga Fantasy?

Five free transfers every round, with no points penalty and no carry-over to the following round. There are no chips in this game, so no Wildcard and no Free Hit. That makes Bundesliga Fantasy a weekly optimisation game: your planning horizon should be one to two rounds rather than the five or six you would use in a game with one transfer per week, and points per million for the coming round matters more than long-term holds.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool