Bundesliga Fantasy 2026/2027 Round 1 Preview

Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1 preview: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems

Bundesliga Fantasy 2026/2027 kicks off on Friday 28 August at 20:30, when Bayern München host VfB Stuttgart. You have 150.0m for a 15-man squad, five free transfers every round, and no chips at all — no Wildcard, no Free Hit. The season is won by being right slightly more often than everyone else, week after week.

Two things have changed since the opening projections, and both matter for team selection. The XI for the Friday opener is now confirmed, which removes several expensive Bayern names from consideration entirely. And the model has reshuffled its top defender and its cheapest gems. Details below.

The scoring system has no clean sheet points — and it changes everything

Bundesliga Fantasy does not reward clean sheets. Not for goalkeepers, not for defenders. It rewards activity:

• Each save: 30 points. Each goal conceded by a goalkeeper or defender: −20. Penalty save: 120.
• Goals: 200 for a goalkeeper, 120 for a defender, 100 for a midfielder, 80 for a forward. A converted penalty adds 60 on top; a brace adds 20 and a hat-trick 60.
• Assists: 150 for a goalkeeper, 70 for a defender, 60 for a midfielder, 40 for a forward.
• Shots: 40 for a goalkeeper, 20 for a defender, 15 for a midfielder, 13 for a forward. Shot assists: 20, 10, 7 and 5.
• Duels won, aerials won and dribbles completed: 12 each for a goalkeeper or defender, 7 for a midfielder, 5 for a forward. Successful crosses: 7.
• Successful passes into the middle or final third: 1 point each. Playing 1–69 minutes: 15. Playing 70+ minutes: 30.

The consequence is stark. A goalkeeper who makes five saves banks 150 points from saves alone; one who watches a comfortable win from behind a dominant defence, facing two shots, banks 60. In this game you want busy goalkeepers, not safe ones. Note the forward penalty too: a striker's goal is worth 80, less than a midfielder's 100 and only two-thirds of a defender's 120. Volume of shots, duels and crosses does more work here than in almost any other fantasy format.

Round 1 fixtures: where the points are

Nine matches from Friday to Sunday. These are the four that shape team selection, with the model's win probability, projected goals and clean sheet chance for each side:

Borussia Dortmund − Hamburger SV is the standout mismatch. Dortmund have averaged 2.17 xG and 1.18 xG conceded per game across their last ten, a non-penalty xG difference of +1.00 with four clean sheets. Hamburger SV have conceded 2.28 xG per game over the same span, a non-penalty xG difference of −1.02 and no clean sheets at all. That gap is why Dortmund attackers and the HSV goalkeeper are both attractive here, for opposite reasons.

Bayern are the other obvious well: 2.62 xG and 3.1 actual goals per game in their last ten, at home to a Stuttgart side the model now gives just a 10% chance of winning — down from 12% as the projections firmed up. Bayer Leverkusen away at Elversberg (60% win probability, 2.20 projected goals) is the fourth fixture worth targeting. Check the full slate on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule and the underlying numbers on market probabilities.

Goalkeepers: the biggest edge in the game

This is where Round 1 is won, and where most managers will get it wrong by importing habits from other fantasy games. Projected saves drive everything:

Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) remains the single best value pick in the game, and the confirmed Stuttgart XI has removed the one risk attached to him: he is starting. He projects 4.61 saves away at Bayern and 166 xP, a PPM of 34.51 that leads all goalkeepers by a wide margin. He costs less than 40% of what Kobel does and projects 36 points more.

Daniel Heuer Fernandes (9.1m, HSV) is the addition since the opening projections and the pick most managers will miss. He faces the best attack of the round on paper, projects 4.18 saves and 177 xP, and his weighted six-round score of 601 holds up well beyond Round 1. Owning the HSV goalkeeper and a Dortmund forward in the same team is not a contradiction in this scoring system — it is the correct way to buy one lopsided fixture twice.

Nahuel Noll (7.7m, SCP) is the best balance of price and ceiling at 184 xP, and his projection is stable: 170 in Round 2 and 193 in Round 3. Loris Karius (9.3m, S04) is the strongest keeper across a longer horizon — 185 now, then 209 in Round 2, the highest single-round goalkeeper projection in the opening six. Moritz Nicolas (13.9m, BMG) tops the round outright at 201 xP on 4.88 projected saves at Leipzig, but at 13.9m you are paying a premium for saves you can buy far more cheaply.

Note who is not on this list in any useful sense. Kobel and Neuer sit behind the two best defences in the division and project 130 and 141. They are excellent goalkeepers having a bad game economically, and that is the whole lesson of this format.

Defenders: buy attacking output, not solidity

With no clean sheet reward and −20 per goal conceded, a defender earns his keep through shots (20 each), assists (70), crosses, duels and aerials — and above all through penalties.

David Raum (18.1m, RBL) is now the top-projected defender in the game at 181 xP, and the reason is his penalty share of 0.98. He is Leipzig's designated taker, a defender's goal is worth 120 and a converted penalty adds another 60, and he faces a Gladbach side the model gives an 11% clean sheet chance. He has produced an xA90 of 0.20 across his last ten alongside that penalty duty.

Willi Orban (16.2m, RBL) at 175 xP is the same fixture from the other end, and Nathaniel Brown (15.5m, FCB) matches him at 175 xP with his place in the Bayern XI now confirmed — 854 minutes across his last ten in the best attacking side in the league.

One change worth flagging: Ramy Bensebaini (16.9m, BVB) has fallen from the top of this position to 153 xP as his projected minutes came down to 75. He still takes Dortmund's penalties (0.83 share), which keeps his ceiling live, but he is no longer the automatic premium defensive buy. Julian Ryerson (12.8m, BVB) at 141 xP is the better-value route into the same fixture: five assists from 4.37 xA in his last ten, an xA90 of 0.54 that is extraordinary for a defender, and each of those is worth 70 points.

For mid-price value, Anthony Caci (9.2m, M05) at 139 xP is backed by an xA90 of 0.30 across his last ten, and Stefan Posch (10.2m, M05) gives 131 xP with 88 projected minutes in the same fixture.

The budget bracket is genuinely productive. Elias Baum (5.0m, FRA) returns 117 xP for a 23.42 PPM — the best of any defender projected above 110 points — and Nikola Katic (5.6m, FCA) gives 108 xP at 19.18. At these prices you are buying 85 minutes of duels, crosses and passes into the final third, which is exactly what this scoring system pays for. Compare the whole position side by side on Bundesliga Fantasy player picks.

Midfielders: one premium stands alone

Michael Olise (37.5m, FCB) is the best midfielder in the game and the gap is not close. He projects 294 xP for Round 1 and 898 on a decay-weighted six-round view, well ahead of every other midfielder. Over his last ten appearances he has three goals and seven assists at an xGI90 of 1.02 from 26 shots, and his place in the confirmed Bayern XI is settled. He is expensive enough to shape your entire squad, which is the honest argument against him rather than any doubt about the output.

Konstantinos Karetsas (15.7m, BVB) is the mid-price pick of the round at 197 xP, with an xA90 of 0.34 in his last ten and the Hamburger SV defence in front of him. Nadiem Amiri (20.5m, M05) takes Mainz penalties (0.93 share) and carries the best underlying rate of any midfielder we track — an xGI90 of 1.21 from four goals and three assists in his last ten — projecting 194 xP against Paderborn.

Brajan Gruda (12.6m, RBL) at 189 xP is the cheaper route into the Leipzig fixture and the better buy on rate: an xGI90 of 0.96 from 27 shots in 519 minutes. Said El Mala (11.9m, KOE) offers 176 xP off five goals from 4.72 xG and 39 shots, an xG90 of 0.53, and takes Köln's penalties (0.82 share).

In the value bracket, Jae-Sung Lee (9.5m, M05) returns 173 xP against Paderborn and Jan-Niklas Beste (7.8m, SCF) gives 151 xP at a 19.32 PPM. Fabian Rieder (10.9m, FCA) is worth a look purely because he takes Augsburg's penalties (0.92 share) at 165 xP.

Two cheap midfielders carry penalty duty, and that is what lifts them: Lukas Petkov (6.3m, ELV) at 153 xP and a 24.47 PPM (0.93 penalty share, xGI90 of 0.47 in his last ten), and Adil Aouchiche (6.5m, S04) at 148 xP and 22.78 PPM, whose xGI90 of 0.76 from 26 shots is the best underlying number of any midfielder under 7.0m. Confirm every penalty duty on the Bundesliga penalty takers page before you commit.

Forwards: Kane, then a very good value tier

Harry Kane (38.1m, FCB) projects 359 xP, the highest of any player in the round, at home to Stuttgart. He has ten goals in his last ten appearances from an xG90 of 0.67 off 34 shots, he takes Bayern's penalties (0.93 share), and he is confirmed in the XI. His weighted six-round score of 1,143 is the highest in the game by more than 200 points. He is the most expensive asset available and still the most defensible.

Serhou Guirassy (18.4m, BVB) is the best value premium in the game and has strengthened since the opening numbers, up to 307 xP. That is second only to Kane for less than half the price — a 16.66 PPM against Kane's 9.42. His goalscoring rate is the strongest of any forward we track: an xG90 of 0.96 from 6.5 xG in 612 minutes, off 45 shots. If your budget will not stretch to Kane, this is not a compromise.

Luis Diaz (28.8m, FCB) at 292 xP and Patrik Schick (18.4m, B04) at 265 xP complete the premium tier. Schick is the biggest riser of this refresh: he has taken 55 shots in his last ten at an xG90 of 0.76 and takes Leverkusen's penalties (0.91 share) away at Elversberg.

The value tier is where squads get built. Ragnar Ache (12.2m, KOE) returns 227 xP at an 18.61 PPM with an xG90 of 0.50 from 28 shots. Antonio Nusa (15.0m, RBL) gives 225 xP in the Leipzig fixture, and Phillip Tietz (10.5m, M05) is the pick on efficiency at 219 xP for a 20.79 PPM — eight goals and 36 shots behind him at an xG90 of 0.46. Igor Matanovic (14.6m, SCF) at 210 xP takes Freiburg's penalties (0.92 share) at home to a Werder side with a non-penalty xG difference of −0.39.

One tier down, Michael Gregoritsch (11.9m, FCA) at 184 xP, Emmanuel Latte Lath (11.6m, FCU) at 180 xP and Afonso Moreira (9.8m, B04) at 180 xP all beat every premium defender in the game for points per million.

Hidden gems: the picks that fund everything else

Ownership barely exists in Round 1 — no game has been played, so there are no true differentials to quote. What does exist is price inefficiency, and these are the largest instances of it right now:

• Jan Gyamerah (2.0m, ELV) — 93 xP for two million, a PPM of 46.93 that is the highest of any player in the game. He is projected for 88 minutes at a 0.99 starter factor, so this is a real 88-minute defender rather than a bench filler: duels, aerials and passes into the middle third at the cheapest price on the list.
• Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) — covered above, but worth repeating. 166 xP and 4.61 projected saves for the price of a bench defender, and now confirmed to start.
• Livan Burcu (4.9m, FCU) — 143 xP at a 28.91 PPM, the best of any forward under 6.0m, with 13 shots in 434 minutes across his last ten.
• Younes Ebnoutalib (3.4m, FRA) — 104 xP at 30.89 PPM off genuinely strong underlying numbers: four goals from 4.17 xG and 21 shots in 575 minutes, an xG90 of 0.65. He projects only 67 minutes, so treat him as a high-upside bench slot rather than a nailed starter.
• Lukasz Poreba (2.7m, ELV) and Tjark Scheller (3.3m, M05) — 88 and 86 xP at 32.44 and 25.95 PPM, both projected for 85+ minutes. These are the enablers that make a Kane-plus-Guirassy front line affordable.

One name has come down since the opening projections and deserves a correction rather than a repeat: Stefano Marino (2.5m, SCP) now projects 98 xP on 57 minutes with a starter factor of 0.76. Still excellent value at 39.24 PPM, but no longer a nailed starter, so price the rotation risk in. Cross-check any of these against player data before you buy.

Who to avoid in Round 1

Nobody owns a squad yet, so this is a trap list rather than a sell list — and the traps are expensive. The confirmed Bayern and Stuttgart XIs have made this section much sharper than it was a few days ago.

Do not buy these names at all. The model projects effectively no minutes for them in Round 1: Nico Schlotterbeck (23.8m, BVB), Jamal Musiala (22.6m, FCB), Christoph Baumgartner (20.0m, RBL), Joey Veerman (14.8m, BVB) and Forzan Assan Ouedraogo (14.6m, RBL) all project zero. Among the confirmed Bayern absentees, Serge Gnabry (17.2m) projects 13 xP, Lennart Karl (17.3m) 13, Min-Jae Kim (16.8m) 17, Josip Stanisic (16.3m) 20 and Alphonso Davies (16.3m) 21. Between them that is well over 150m of budget doing nothing. Always sanity-check against predicted Bundesliga lineups before spending at the top of the price list.

The subtler trap is expensive defenders who do start. Edmond Tapsoba (21.0m, B04) plays 88 minutes and still projects only 116 xP, a PPM of 5.54, because his last ten produced almost no attacking output and this game pays nothing for the clean sheets he helps produce. Jonathan Tah (16.4m, FCB) is worse value again at 100 xP despite a confirmed start, and Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.2m, STU) returns 94 xP. All three are good defenders and poor fantasy assets.

Finally, Deniz Undav (21.9m, STU) is a timing call rather than a bad player. He carries the highest combined goal-and-assist rate of any forward we track — an xGI90 of 1.08 from six goals and six assists in his last ten — but he opens away at Bayern and projects 181 xP. His Round 2 projection jumps to 269, the second-highest of any forward that week. Buy him next round, not this one. With five free transfers every round, that plan costs you nothing.

Captain picks for Round 1

Your captain doubles his score, so this is the single highest-leverage decision of the round.

Captain Harry Kane. He is 52 points clear of the next-best option before doubling, he is on penalties, he is confirmed in the XI, and he is at home to a side the model gives a 10% chance of winning. There is no clever angle to find here.

Serhou Guirassy is the alternative if you have gone a different route at the top end, and he is comfortably the better captain per million spent. Michael Olise is third and is the pick if you own him but not Kane.

Captaincy is a plan rather than a one-week choice, and this one is unusually simple: Kane also leads Round 2 (328) and Round 4 (317), and his weighted six-round score of 1,143 is the highest in the game. Buying him is buying the armband for the next month. For the wider framework behind that thinking, our fantasy strategy guide covers how to plan captaincy across rounds rather than one week at a time.

A recommended Round 1 squad

Built to the real constraints: 150.0m, two goalkeepers, five defenders, five midfielders and three forwards, a maximum of three players from any one club, and — importantly — every one of the 15 projected to start and play at least 45 minutes. That last condition costs a little theoretical upside and removes the risk of fielding ten men.

Starting XI (1-3-4-3) — 2,136 projected points, 2,495 with Kane captained

Bench: Fabian Bredlow (STU, 4.8m, 166) · Jan Gyamerah (ELV, 2.0m, 93) · Lukasz Poreba (ELV, 2.7m, 88) · Keita Kosugi (FRA, 3.2m, 82).

Budget breakdown: 149.7m of 150.0m spent, 0.3m left over. Kane and Guirassy alone account for 56.5m — 38% of the budget on two forwards — funded by spending 27.3m on three starting defenders and 12.7m on the entire four-man bench. Every bench player is projected to start for his club, so the auto-substitution safety net is real rather than decorative.

Two notes on the construction. Mainz 05 and Elversberg each appear three times, the maximum allowed. And the squad deliberately owns both sides of Mainz 05 − Paderborn: Tietz, Lee and Mwene for the Mainz attack, Noll in the Paderborn goal. In a scoring system built on saves rather than clean sheets, that is a genuine hedge rather than a contradiction, and it is one of the more useful quirks of this game.

This is a starting point rather than a prescription. The live solver will always beat a hand-built squad on any given set of constraints, so run your own through optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy, and track what you commit to on My Team.

How to approach the season

Five free transfers a round with no points penalty makes this a weekly optimisation game, not a long-term hold game. Do not agonise over a 3.0m defender for Round 4; you will have fifteen transfers between now and then. Two habits will serve you better than any single pick.

First, re-check goalkeeper fixtures every round. Save volume is the largest predictable edge in this scoring system and it moves week to week — Karius rises from 185 to 209 between Rounds 1 and 2, while Bredlow falls from 166 to 132. Second, chase minutes before you chase names. A 5.0m defender playing 85 minutes beats a 21.0m defender playing 88 if the cheaper one wins more duels and takes more shots, and in Round 1 that is exactly what the numbers say.

More rounds and more analysis in the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub, and if you want the wider strategic background, browse all our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Harry Kane (38.1m, FCB). He projects 359 xP at home to VfB Stuttgart, which becomes 718 captained, and that is 52 points clear of the next-best option before doubling. He has ten goals in his last ten appearances at an xG90 of 0.67, he takes Bayern's penalties, and he is confirmed in the starting XI for the Friday opener. Serhou Guirassy (18.4m, BVB) at 307 xP is the alternative if you do not own Kane, and Michael Olise (37.5m, FCB) at 294 xP is third.

Which goalkeeper is the best pick for Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, STU) on value and Moritz Nicolas (13.9m, BMG) on raw ceiling. Bundesliga Fantasy awards 30 points per save and nothing for a clean sheet, so you want keepers who face shots. Bredlow projects 4.61 saves away at Bayern for 166 xP, a PPM of 34.51 that leads all goalkeepers. Nicolas projects 4.88 saves at RB Leipzig for 201 xP, the highest of any keeper. Daniel Heuer Fernandes (9.1m, HSV) at 177 xP is the under-the-radar pick, facing Dortmund. Premium keepers behind good defences, such as Gregor Kobel at 130 xP, are poor value in this format.

Which budget players should I buy in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Jan Gyamerah (2.0m, ELV) is the standout at 93 xP for a PPM of 46.93, the highest in the game, and he is projected for 88 minutes rather than a cameo. Lukas Petkov (6.3m, ELV) offers 153 xP and takes Elversberg's penalties, Adil Aouchiche (6.5m, S04) gives 148 xP at an xGI90 of 0.76, Livan Burcu (4.9m, FCU) returns 143 xP at 28.91 PPM, and Elias Baum (5.0m, FRA) is the best budget defender at 117 xP. These cheap picks are what let you afford Kane and Guirassy together.

Who should I avoid in Bundesliga Fantasy Round 1?

Any expensive player the model does not expect to start. Nico Schlotterbeck (23.8m), Jamal Musiala (22.6m), Christoph Baumgartner (20.0m), Joey Veerman (14.8m) and Forzan Assan Ouedraogo (14.6m) all project zero minutes, and the confirmed Bayern XI rules out Serge Gnabry (13 xP), Min-Jae Kim (17 xP), Josip Stanisic (20 xP) and Alphonso Davies (21 xP). Also avoid premium defenders bought for solidity, such as Edmond Tapsoba (21.0m, 116 xP) and Jonathan Tah (16.4m, 100 xP), because there are no clean sheet points to reward them. Deniz Undav (21.9m, STU) is worth waiting on: 181 xP away at Bayern now, but 269 in Round 2.

How many transfers do I get in Bundesliga Fantasy?

Five free transfers every round, with no points penalty and no carry-over to the following round. There are no chips in this game, so no Wildcard and no Free Hit. That makes Bundesliga Fantasy a weekly optimisation game: your planning horizon should be one to two rounds rather than the five or six you would use in a game with one transfer per week, and points per million for the coming round matters more than any long-term hold.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool