Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9: captain picks, best buys
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9 opens on Friday with Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach, and all eighteen clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The round is a decision between two premium forwards and the runs behind them. Mainz 05 - Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund - Elversberg carry the two biggest attacking projections of the round, and Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy are separated by just 3.1 points. Bayern's [A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV is the best three-round attack in the game, while Dortmund own the best clean-sheet run. Behind them, the picks that decide the round are cheaper: Andrej Kramaric, Lucas Höler and the Paderborn forwards all out-project far more popular players at their price.
All numbers are the model's projected points with the latest predicted lineups, pulled on Saturday 31 October. Every player is in the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks, the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups show who is expected to start, and the solver's full squad is on the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy page. Last week's angles are in our Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8 preview.
Matchday 9 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The table ranks all eighteen clubs by 3-round expected goals across Matchday 9 to 11. The first three number columns are this round; the last three are the run behind it, and 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets out of three games. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like. The full calendar is on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule, and the odds behind each fixture are on the Bundesliga market probabilities page.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]M05 | 66% | 2.82 | 24% | [A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV | 7.55 | 0.96 |
| STU | [H]WER | 64% | 2.51 | 28% | [H]WER → [A]S04 → [H]FRA | 7.14 | 1.05 |
| BVB | [H]ELV | 76% | 2.87 | 38% | [H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 | 6.72 | 1.11 |
| B04 | [A]KOE | 58% | 2.25 | 27% | [A]KOE → [H]SCP → [A]BVB | 6.41 | 0.97 |
| SCF | [H]FCU | 64% | 2.19 | 38% | [H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL | 5.61 | 1.04 |
| HOF | [H]S04 | 58% | 2.17 | 30% | [H]S04 → [A]FRA → [H]FCA | 5.47 | 0.76 |
| RBL | [H]FCA | 66% | 2.67 | 27% | [H]FCA → [A]FCU → [A]SCF | 5.35 | 0.72 |
| WER | [A]STU | 17% | 1.28 | 8% | [A]STU → [H]HSV → [H]BMG | 5.06 | 0.82 |
| FRA | [A]SCP | 44% | 1.85 | 21% | [A]SCP → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 4.84 | 0.58 |
| KOE | [H]B04 | 21% | 1.32 | 10% | [H]B04 → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 4.42 | 0.56 |
| M05 | [H]FCB | 16% | 1.41 | 6% | [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU | 4.31 | 0.57 |
| FCA | [A]RBL | 16% | 1.30 | 7% | [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]HOF | 4.18 | 0.47 |
| HSV | [H]BMG | 40% | 1.63 | 22% | [H]BMG → [A]WER → [H]FCB | 3.84 | 0.59 |
| SCP | [H]FRA | 32% | 1.54 | 16% | [H]FRA → [A]B04 → [H]S04 | 3.81 | 0.57 |
| FCU | [A]SCF | 15% | 0.98 | 11% | [A]SCF → [H]RBL → [A]M05 | 3.56 | 0.59 |
| BMG | [A]HSV | 35% | 1.53 | 20% | [A]HSV → [H]BVB → [A]WER | 3.18 | 0.39 |
| S04 | [A]HOF | 20% | 1.22 | 11% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP | 2.95 | 0.40 |
| ELV | [A]BVB | 9% | 0.97 | 6% | [A]BVB → [H]SCF → [A]KOE | 2.90 | 0.34 |
Bayern München ([A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV) lead on 7.55 expected goals, 0.41 clear of Stuttgart. Mainz away is the one to build around rather than avoid: Bayern project 2.82 expected goals and a 66% win probability there. VfB Stuttgart ([H]WER → [A]S04 → [H]FRA) are second on 7.14 and third for clean sheets at 1.05, which makes them the most balanced run outside Bayern, and their attackers are the clearest buys of the round below the two premium forwards.
Borussia Dortmund ([H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04) top the clean-sheet column at 1.11 and have the single best fixture of the round: a 76% win probability, 2.87 expected goals and a 38% clean sheet chance at home to Elversberg. The Leverkusen game in Matchday 11 is the week to plan around, not the reason to skip them. Freiburg ([H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL) match Dortmund's 38% this round and sit just behind them at 1.04 over three, so the Freiburg defence is a hold rather than a rental.
Werder Bremen are the program that turns. [A]STU is a hard start (a 17% win probability), but [H]HSV → [H]BMG follows, and two home games in a row lift Werder's players from a modest Matchday 9 to some of the highest projections in the game in Matchday 11. At the bottom, Elversberg ([A]BVB → [H]SCF → [A]KOE) are last on both counts with 2.90 expected goals and 0.34 expected clean sheets, and Schalke ([A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP) are close behind. That does not rule out their keepers, as the next section shows.
Matchday 9 goalkeepers
Bundesliga Fantasy keeper projections reward a busy afternoon as much as a clean sheet. Loris Karius (10.9m, S04) tops the position this round and over three: 196.9 → 205.9 → 182.1 across [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP for 584.9 in total. Schalke have only an 11% clean sheet chance in Hoffenheim, and that is exactly why he scores: he faces Hoffenheim and Stuttgart back to back. He is a buy-and-keep at 10% ownership.
Nahuel Noll (8.8m, SCP) is the cheaper version of the same idea, with 186.0 → 203.2 → 164.3 on [H]FRA → [A]B04 → [H]S04 for 553.5, and the Leverkusen trip in Matchday 10 is his best week. Alexander Schwolow (6.3m, M05) is the one-round play. He projects 190.6 at home to Bayern, third among keepers, at 30.4 points per million, the best value of any starting keeper. But his program is [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU and he falls to 161.5 and 145.1, so rent him for this round and swap him again in Matchday 10.
Finn Dahmen (10.9m, FCA), owned by 22%, is the steady hold at 193.5 → 170.5 → 179.3 on [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]HOF. If you want the keeper who rises instead, Noah Atubolu (10.3m, FRA) goes 176.4 → 174.3 → 185.2 on [A]SCP → [H]HOF → [A]STU, 535.9 over three, owned by 7%.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD9 | MD10 | MD11 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loris Karius | S04 | 10.9m | 10% | 196.9 | 205.9 | 182.1 | 584.9 |
| Nahuel Noll | SCP | 8.8m | 10% | 186.0 | 203.2 | 164.3 | 553.5 |
| Finn Dahmen | FCA | 10.9m | 22% | 193.5 | 170.5 | 179.3 | 543.3 |
| Noah Atubolu | FRA | 10.3m | 7% | 176.4 | 174.3 | 185.2 | 535.9 |
| Alexander Schwolow | M05 | 6.3m | 7% | 190.6 | 161.5 | 145.1 | 497.2 |
Matchday 9 defenders
Dortmund and Freiburg own the two best clean-sheet chances of the round, and their defenders top the position. Julian Ryerson (12.7m, BVB) is the pick of the Dortmund defence: 151.3 → 135.5 → 104.7 on [H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, almost level with Nico Schlotterbeck (155.2) at roughly half the price. Schlotterbeck is the better player over three (426.2 against 391.5), but at 24.0m the 11.3m difference buys a much better attacker elsewhere. Matthias Ginter (12.0m, SCF) projects 155.1 → 139.5 → 124.7 on [H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL for 419.3. He is Freiburg's penalty taker, which lifts his ceiling, and at 15% ownership he is the template hold.
This is the position where this round and the next three disagree most. Mitchell Weiser (8.9m, WER) projects only 115.3 in Stuttgart, but [H]HSV → [H]BMG follows and he rises to 136.5 and then 191.5, the highest defender projection of any round in the window. That makes him the top defender over three at 443.3, ahead of Schlotterbeck and Ginter. For Matchday 9 alone, Ryerson and Ginter are the better picks; if you are buying one defender to keep, buy Weiser. Olivier Deman (9.8m, WER) follows the same shape, 90.9 → 115.8 → 152.3, and is owned by 1%: a Matchday 10 buy rather than a Matchday 9 one.
Two Hoffenheim defenders cover the middle and the bottom of the price range. Ozan Kabak (13.7m, HOF) projects 137.9 → 108.8 → 120.3 on [H]S04 → [A]FRA → [H]FCA for 367.0, and Koki Machida (3.8m, HOF) gives 90.0 → 72.6 → 78.2 on the same run. Machida is the cheap defender to keep: 23.5 points per million this round, projected to start, at a price that frees money for the forwards.
For a one-round rental, Benjamin Henrichs (4.3m, RBL) projects 117.5 at home to Augsburg, 27.2 points per million, but RB Leipzig go [H]FCA → [A]FCU → [A]SCF and he drops to 87.3 and 77.3, so plan to swap him out in Matchday 10. Daiki Hashioka (5.1m, BMG) is the same kind of buy: 110.2 in Hamburg, then 69.4 and 74.6 on [H]BVB → [A]WER. Both are 0-3% owned.
Matchday 9 midfielders
Michael Olise (39.4m, FCB) is the most-owned player in the game at 38% and the top midfielder in each of the next two rounds: 233.0 → 237.7 → 173.1 on [A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV, 643.8 over three. He belongs in the template; the more useful question is what goes around him.
The answer starts with Andrej Kramaric (11.9m, HOF). He is second among midfielders this round at 204.0 and second over three at 512.8, on [H]S04 → [A]FRA → [H]FCA, and the ownership figure rounds to 0%. The Frankfurt trip is his weakest week at 144.9, but Augsburg at home brings him back to 163.9. He is the clearest differential in the game.
Freiburg's midfield is the value tier. Jan-Niklas Beste (8.2m, SCF) projects 153.3 → 136.4 → 113.9 on [H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL, 18.8 points per million this round, and Yuito Suzuki (10.0m, SCF) does a little more at 161.9 → 142.2 → 121.2. Both are projected for 75 minutes, so they are buys for the next two rounds, with the Leipzig game the week to reassess.
The Leverkusen pair peaks one round later. Ibrahim Maza (17.5m, B04), owned by 27%, goes 166.4 → 182.0 → 122.3 on [A]KOE → [H]SCP → [A]BVB, so hold him through Paderborn and look at him again before Dortmund. Felix Nmecha (13.2m, BVB) is the Dortmund route into the best fixture of the round: 168.8 → 147.0 → 118.2 on [H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04. Ismael Saibari (17.3m, FCB) projects 169.0 and 186.3 in the next two rounds, but he is expected to start only about two games in three, so he is a riskier way into Bayern than his projection suggests.
Two cheaper midfielders are worth a slot for different reasons. Brajan Gruda (13.1m, RBL) projects 176.1 at home to Augsburg, the third-best midfield number of the round, and then falls to 118.2 and 101.5 on [A]FCU → [A]SCF: a strict one-round buy. Tim Skarke (4.0m, FCU) is the budget midfielder to keep, 91.2 → 91.4 → 78.6 on [A]SCF → [H]RBL → [A]M05 at 22.8 points per million this round. Ezechiel Banzuzi (6.0m, RBL), owned by 28%, is fine for this round at 134.3, but his run falls to 100.1 and 88.8 behind it.
Matchday 9 forwards
Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) projects 293.0 → 266.1 → 211.0 on [A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV, top of the round and top over three at 770.1, and he is Bayern's penalty taker. Serhou Guirassy (19.0m, BVB) is the alternative at about half the price: 289.9 → 241.4 → 180.9 on [H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 for 712.2. Kane has the higher ceiling across the window and Guirassy the far better points per million, 15.2 against 7.9, so the right one depends on what the rest of your squad needs to fund.
The best buy below those two is Deniz Undav (19.6m, STU). He projects 234.8 → 228.9 → 173.6 on [H]WER → [A]S04 → [H]FRA, third among forwards this round and over three at 637.3, and only 6% own him. Stuttgart's whole run is good, so this is a buy you can keep. Ermedin Demirovic (12.0m, STU) is the cheaper Stuttgart forward at 170.1 → 166.1 → 135.2, 2% owned. Patrik Schick (19.4m, B04) is a two-round buy: 222.9 → 258.1 on [A]KOE → [H]SCP, the second-highest forward projection of Matchday 10, before [A]BVB drops him to 129.9. He takes Leverkusen's penalties.
Below 10m, three forwards stand out. Lucas Höler (7.8m, SCF) projects 165.5 → 140.4 → 124.7 on [H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL, 21.1 points per million, and the ownership figure rounds to 0%. Adam Hlozek (9.8m, HOF) gives 166.9 → 124.0 → 136.3 on Hoffenheim's [H]S04 → [A]FRA → [H]FCA. And the Paderborn pair is the cheapest route to real points: Marvin Pieringer (3.1m, SCP) projects 137.1 at home to Frankfurt, 44.9 points per million, and Stefano Marino (4.3m, SCP) 145.2. Both dip in Leverkusen (89.3 and 93.9) and recover at home to Schalke (125.0 and 135.1), so they are buys for this round that can come back in for Matchday 11.
Werder's forwards follow the Werder shape. Niclas Füllkrug (14.0m, WER), owned by 29%, projects 151.6 → 155.3 → 213.7 on [A]STU → [H]HSV → [H]BMG, and Marco Grüll (9.8m, WER), owned by 23%, goes 142.3 → 148.3 → 215.6. Their Matchday 11 projections are the two highest of any player that round, so if you already own them, hold through Stuttgart, and if you do not, Matchday 10 is the round to buy them.
Matchday 9 captain picks
Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) is the captain at 293.0, 586.0 doubled, in Mainz on [A]M05 → [H]KOE → [A]HSV. Serhou Guirassy (19.0m, BVB) is a very close second at 289.9 on [H]ELV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, and against Elversberg Dortmund carry the best win probability (76%) and expected goals (2.87) of the round. Deniz Undav (234.8), Michael Olise (233.0) and Patrik Schick (222.9) complete the top five.
Captaincy also shapes which premium to own. Kane is the top projection again in Matchday 10 (266.1), with Schick second at 258.1, so a squad holding both Bayern and Leverkusen forwards has a strong captain in each of the next two rounds. In Matchday 11 the order changes: Marco Grüll (215.6) and Niclas Füllkrug (213.7) edge past Kane (211.0) at home to Gladbach, which is one more reason to have a Werder forward lined up for that round.
Who to sell before Matchday 9
Igor Matanovic (16.7m, SCF) is owned by 15% and is projected to start only about one game in ten, so he projects 60.9 → 55.3 → 57.4 on a Freiburg program that is otherwise good. Why now: the minutes are the problem in every round of the window, not just this one, and 16.7m sitting on the bench is most of the way to Deniz Undav.
Aleksandar Pavlovic (16.2m, FCB), owned by 20%, is injured with a listed return of 10 November and projects nothing in Mainz. He returns at 100.0 → 78.4 on [H]KOE → [A]HSV. Why now: he scores zero this round, and even after his return Ismael Saibari or Andrej Kramaric project more for similar or less money, so there is no round in the window worth holding him for.
Fabian Rieder (12.8m, FCA) is owned by 21%. Augsburg's [H]M05 in Matchday 10 is a fair fixture and he projects 124.1 in it, but [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]HOF gives him only 117.2 → 124.1 → 110.2, and Jan-Niklas Beste costs 4.6m less and projects more in every one of those rounds. Why now: there is no week in the window where waiting makes him the better pick.
Jordy Makengo (6.8m, SCF) is the most-owned defender at 38%, and Freiburg's fixtures are not the issue: [H]FCU → [A]ELV → [H]RBL is one of the best clean-sheet runs in the game. He turns it into only 86.4 → 79.5 → 68.9, while Koki Machida costs 3.0m less and projects more in Matchday 9. Bambase Conte (8.0m, HOF), owned by 16%, is in the same position as Matanovic, expected to start fewer than one game in five and projecting 64.8 this round, while his teammate Andrej Kramaric projects 204.0. Why now for both: their trajectories only fall or stay flat, so this round is as good a moment to move as any.
Matchday 9 summary
Captain Harry Kane, with Serhou Guirassy a very close alternative. Own the Bayern and Dortmund attacks, add Deniz Undav for Stuttgart's whole run, and use Andrej Kramaric, Lucas Höler and Jan-Niklas Beste as the differentials that separate you from the template. Julian Ryerson, Matthias Ginter and Loris Karius are the defensive holds; Alexander Schwolow, Benjamin Henrichs, Brajan Gruda and the Paderborn forwards are one-round rentals. Line up Werder for Matchday 10: Mitchell Weiser, Niclas Füllkrug and Marco Grüll all peak at home to Gladbach in Matchday 11. Sell Igor Matanovic, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Fabian Rieder, Jordy Makengo and Bambase Conte. For more analysis, see the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub and our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9?
Harry Kane. He projects 293.0 points in Mainz, 586.0 as captain, the highest projection of the round. Serhou Guirassy is only 3.1 points behind at 289.9 at home to Elversberg, and Deniz Undav (234.8) is the third option.
Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9?
Andrej Kramaric, Lucas Höler and Deniz Undav. Andrej Kramaric projects 204.0 at home to Schalke and 512.8 over three rounds, Lucas Höler 165.5 at 7.8m, and both have ownership that rounds to 0%. Deniz Undav projects 234.8 at home to Werder and is owned by only 6%.
Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9?
Koki Machida (3.8m) is the one to keep, with 90.0 at home to Schalke and 72.6 → 78.2 on the rest of Hoffenheim's run. Benjamin Henrichs (4.3m) projects more this round, 117.5 at home to Augsburg, but drops to 87.3 in Matchday 10, so he is a one-round pick.
Should I sell Aleksandar Pavlovic before Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9?
Yes. Aleksandar Pavlovic is injured, with a listed return of 10 November, and projects nothing in Mainz. He comes back at 100.0 in Matchday 10, which Ismael Saibari and Andrej Kramaric both beat.
Should I buy Werder Bremen players for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9?
Not yet. Werder are away at Stuttgart, but [H]HSV and [H]BMG follow, and Marco Grüll (215.6), Niclas Füllkrug (213.7) and Mitchell Weiser (191.5) all peak in Matchday 11. If you own them, hold; if you do not, Matchday 10 is the round to buy.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.