Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8: captain picks, best buys
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8 opens on Friday evening with Elversberg - Mainz 05, and its centrepiece is Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund on Saturday evening. All eighteen clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The round is a decision about Bayern: their next three games, [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, are the best attacking run in the game by more than a goal and a half, and Harry Kane projects 350.1 points in the first of them. Beyond the obvious Bayern picks, the round is won with the cheaper spots. Gladbach, Frankfurt and Leipzig all have good fixtures, and each has a cheap player who projects well in them.
With five free transfers every week you are mostly picking for the round, but the run behind it still decides which buys you keep into Matchday 9 and 10 and which you rent for one week. All numbers are the model's projected points, pulled on Saturday 24 October while Matchday 7 was still being played. Every player is in the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks, and the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups show who is expected to start before you lock anything in. The solver's full squad is on the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy page, and last week's angles are in our Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7 preview.
Matchday 8 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The table ranks all eighteen clubs by 3-round expected goals across Matchday 8 to 10. The first three number columns are this round; the last three are the run behind it, and 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets out of three games. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like. The full calendar is on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule, and the odds behind each fixture are on the Bundesliga market probabilities page.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [H]BVB | 72% | 3.03 | 28% | [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE | 8.55 | 0.93 |
| B04 | [H]STU | 54% | 2.29 | 22% | [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP | 6.66 | 0.85 |
| RBL | [A]S04 | 53% | 2.07 | 25% | [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU | 5.75 | 0.89 |
| BVB | [A]FCB | 13% | 1.28 | 5% | [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]BMG | 5.66 | 0.81 |
| STU | [A]B04 | 25% | 1.53 | 10% | [A]B04 → [H]WER → [A]S04 | 5.48 | 0.79 |
| FRA | [H]HSV | 56% | 2.17 | 27% | [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF | 5.41 | 0.77 |
| HOF | [A]WER | 43% | 1.87 | 20% | [A]WER → [H]S04 → [A]FRA | 5.26 | 0.74 |
| M05 | [A]ELV | 47% | 1.84 | 25% | [A]ELV → [H]FCB → [A]FCA | 4.61 | 0.59 |
| SCF | [A]FCA | 44% | 1.83 | 22% | [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV | 4.56 | 0.90 |
| BMG | [H]SCP | 51% | 2.00 | 26% | [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB | 4.45 | 0.67 |
| FCA | [H]SCF | 31% | 1.51 | 16% | [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]M05 | 4.00 | 0.50 |
| HSV | [A]FRA | 22% | 1.30 | 11% | [A]FRA → [H]BMG → [A]WER | 3.97 | 0.63 |
| WER | [H]HOF | 33% | 1.62 | 15% | [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]HSV | 3.96 | 0.58 |
| SCP | [A]BMG | 25% | 1.36 | 14% | [A]BMG → [H]FRA → [A]B04 | 3.77 | 0.41 |
| KOE | [A]FCU | 36% | 1.49 | 21% | [A]FCU → [H]B04 → [A]FCB | 3.77 | 0.42 |
| FCU | [H]KOE | 38% | 1.55 | 22% | [H]KOE → [A]SCF → [H]RBL | 3.75 | 0.72 |
| S04 | [H]RBL | 25% | 1.37 | 13% | [H]RBL → [A]HOF → [H]STU | 3.60 | 0.41 |
| ELV | [H]M05 | 29% | 1.40 | 16% | [H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF | 3.37 | 0.47 |
Bayern München ([H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE) lead on 8.55 expected goals, and they also top the clean-sheet column at 0.93. The Dortmund game is the one to build around, not avoid: Bayern project 3.03 expected goals and a 72% win probability in it, the strongest numbers of the round. Bayer Leverkusen ([H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP) are second for goals at 6.66, with two home games against Stuttgart and Paderborn either side of a trip to Köln.
RB Leipzig ([A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU) are the most balanced run: third for goals at 5.75 and 0.89 expected clean sheets, just behind Freiburg ([A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV) on 0.90. Freiburg have the league's lowest expected goals against so far, 0.79 per game in their first six, which is why their defence holds up even though the attack is mid-table. Dortmund are the program to plan for rather than buy now: [A]FCB is the hardest fixture of the round (5% clean sheet chance), but [H]ELV and [A]BMG follow, and over six rounds their 1.82 expected clean sheets are second only to Bayern.
At the bottom, Elversberg ([H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF) have the weakest attacking run at 3.37 expected goals, and Schalke ([H]RBL → [A]HOF → [H]STU) and Paderborn ([A]BMG → [H]FRA → [A]B04) have the thinnest clean-sheet outlook at 0.41 and 0.41. That does not rule their keepers out, as the next section shows.
Matchday 8 goalkeepers
Bundesliga Fantasy keeper projections are not a clean-sheet table. Loris Karius (10.8m, S04) tops the position this round and over three, with 195.1 → 193.3 → 190.9 across [H]RBL → [A]HOF → [H]STU for 579.3 in total, even though Schalke have only a 13% clean sheet chance against Leipzig. A keeper facing Leipzig, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart expects a busy run, and the flat trajectory means you can buy him and leave him in. He is owned by 9.0% of managers.
Nahuel Noll (8.6m, SCP) is the value version of the same idea: 189.6 → 181.5 → 199.5 over [A]BMG → [H]FRA → [A]B04, 570.6 in total, and the Leverkusen trip in Matchday 10 is actually his best projected week. At 22.11 points per million this round he gives up very little to Loris Karius for 2.2m less. For the cheapest starting keeper with a real projection, Alexander Schwolow (6.2m, M05) has 160.8 → 162.6 → 137.7 across [A]ELV → [H]FCB → [A]FCA at 26.00 points per million, the best value at the position.
This is one position where this round and the 3-round view disagree. Dennis Seimen is third for Matchday 8 at 181.2 in Leverkusen, but drops to 143.9 and 144.3 after it. Moritz Nicolas (13.3m, BMG) projects less this round (176.6) and more over three (543.6 against 469.4) on [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB. If you are buying a keeper to keep, buy Moritz Nicolas; Dennis Seimen is a one-week rental.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD8 | MD9 | MD10 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loris Karius | S04 | 10.8m | 9.0% | 195.1 | 193.3 | 190.9 | 579.3 |
| Nahuel Noll | SCP | 8.6m | 9.0% | 189.6 | 181.5 | 199.5 | 570.6 |
| Moritz Nicolas | BMG | 13.3m | 2.0% | 176.6 | 179.9 | 187.1 | 543.6 |
| Dennis Seimen | STU | 11.4m | 1.0% | 181.2 | 143.9 | 144.3 | 469.4 |
| Alexander Schwolow | M05 | 6.2m | 11.0% | 160.8 | 162.6 | 137.7 | 461.1 |
Matchday 8 defenders
Kevin Diks (9.7m, BMG) is the top defender of the round at 159.2, with Gladbach at home to Paderborn (26% clean sheet chance) on a [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB program. He is Gladbach's penalty taker, which is where most of his ceiling comes from, since his open-play numbers are modest (0.18 expected goal involvements per 90 so far). The trajectory falls to 103.2 and 100.7, so treat him as a strong buy for this round that you review again next week. Only 1.0% own him.
Matthias Ginter (12.1m, SCF) is the defender to hold. His 137.2 → 122.7 → 122.0 over [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV adds up to 381.9, behind only one defender over three rounds, and he is Freiburg's penalty taker on the league's tightest defence so far. Mitchell Weiser (8.8m, WER) is the differential: 140.8 → 98.6 → 118.9 across [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]HSV, owned by almost nobody, though he has played only 99 league minutes this season, so check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before you commit.
The 3-round leader is Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.9m, STU), and he is a buy for Matchday 9 rather than now. He projects only 114.0 in Leverkusen, then 151.3 and 142.1 on [A]B04 → [H]WER → [A]S04. With five free transfers a week there is no reason to carry the weak week: buy Kevin Diks for Matchday 8 and look at Maximilian Mittelstaedt next round. At the top end, Willi Orban (17.3m, RBL) (129.8 → 120.8 → 103.9) is the cleanest route into Leipzig's 0.89 expected clean sheets, on [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU.
The budget pick is Keita Kosugi (4.1m, FRA). Frankfurt host Hamburg with a 27% clean sheet chance, the second-best of the round, and he projects 116.9 → 97.4 → 92.2 on [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF. At 28.58 points per million he is the best-value starting defender in the game, and he frees money for Bayern elsewhere. Benjamin Henrichs (4.3m, RBL) (106.8 → 90.6 → 76.3, [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU) is the alternative in the same price range, with more minutes risk: 160 league minutes so far.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD8 | MD9 | MD10 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Diks | BMG | 9.7m | 1.0% | 159.2 | 103.2 | 100.7 | 363.1 |
| Matthias Ginter | SCF | 12.1m | 15.0% | 137.2 | 122.7 | 122.0 | 381.9 |
| Mitchell Weiser | WER | 8.8m | 0.0% | 140.8 | 98.6 | 118.9 | 358.3 |
| Maximilian Mittelstaedt | STU | 17.9m | 10.0% | 114.0 | 151.3 | 142.1 | 407.4 |
| Willi Orban | RBL | 17.3m | 9.0% | 129.8 | 120.8 | 103.9 | 354.5 |
| Keita Kosugi | FRA | 4.1m | 8.0% | 116.9 | 97.4 | 92.2 | 306.5 |
| Benjamin Henrichs | RBL | 4.3m | 3.0% | 106.8 | 90.6 | 76.3 | 273.7 |
Matchday 8 midfielders
Michael Olise (38.7m, FCB) is the template midfielder and should stay that way: 241.2 → 188.6 → 252.8 over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 682.6 in total, and 1.20 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. 36.0% own him, so he protects your rank rather than wins it. The differentiator in Bayern's midfield is Ismael Saibari (17.3m, FCB): 180.4 → 146.5 → 208.7, 535.6 over the same [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE run, 1.12 expected goal involvements per 90, at less than half the price and 6.0% ownership. The risk is minutes: he is projected for 59 rather than a full game. Joshua Kimmich (430.8 over three) is the safer Bayern midfielder, at a higher price per point.
Ibrahim Maza (17.3m, B04) is the best non-Bayern midfielder over three rounds at 419.6, on [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP with two home games. His 0.89 expected goal involvements per 90 and the flat 150.7 → 126.3 → 142.6 make him a hold rather than a rental. Nadiem Amiri edges him this round (150.9 to 150.7) but Mainz host Bayern in Matchday 9, so over three it is Ibrahim Maza by a small margin. For a barely-owned differential, Ritsu Doan (14.8m, FRA) has 149.4 → 119.3 → 113.1 on Frankfurt's [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF.
The mid-price pick is Hugo Bolin (8.8m, BMG), who projects 146.7 at home to Paderborn, almost as much as Joshua Kimmich at well under half the price. His run tails off (146.7 → 119.2 → 91.4 on [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB), so he is a two-round buy, to be reviewed before Dortmund visit in Matchday 10. Said El Mala (12.3m, KOE) is the longer hold in that price band: 148.9 → 126.2 → 111.5 on [A]FCU → [H]B04 → [A]FCB, and his Matchday 11 projection (152.1) is higher than any of the three.
The budget midfielder is Tim Skarke (4.0m, FCU), at 33.23 points per million, the best value of any midfielder projecting over 100 points this round. He projects 133.8 at home to Köln, then 94.7 and 94.5 on [H]KOE → [A]SCF → [H]RBL. That is a one-round buy: take him for Matchday 8 and use a free transfer on him again next week.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD8 | MD9 | MD10 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | FCB | 38.7m | 36.0% | 241.2 | 188.6 | 252.8 | 682.6 |
| Ismael Saibari | FCB | 17.3m | 6.0% | 180.4 | 146.5 | 208.7 | 535.6 |
| Ibrahim Maza | B04 | 17.3m | 24.0% | 150.7 | 126.3 | 142.6 | 419.6 |
| Nadiem Amiri | M05 | 19.5m | 5.0% | 150.9 | 127.3 | 133.2 | 411.4 |
| Ritsu Doan | FRA | 14.8m | 0.0% | 149.4 | 119.3 | 113.1 | 381.8 |
| Hugo Bolin | BMG | 8.8m | 4.0% | 146.7 | 119.2 | 91.4 | 357.3 |
| Said El Mala | KOE | 12.3m | 13.0% | 148.9 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 386.6 |
| Tim Skarke | FCU | 4.0m | 4.0% | 133.8 | 94.7 | 94.5 | 323.0 |
Matchday 8 forwards
Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) is the highest projection in the game this round and over three: 350.1 → 252.4 → 318.4 on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 920.9 in total. He has 4 goals and 5 assists from 445 minutes, 1.34 expected goal involvements per 90, and he takes Bayern's penalties. Only 15.0% own him, a surprising number for a player who out-projects every forward by more than 120 points this round.
Behind him, this round and the 3-round view disagree. Patrik Schick (19.3m, B04) is second for Matchday 8 at 226.7 on [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP, with 6 goals from 4.35 expected goals and Leverkusen's penalties. Serhou Guirassy (19.2m, BVB) projects only 177.0 in Munich, but 177.0 → 277.7 → 189.0 across [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]BMG gives him 643.7 over three, ahead of Patrik Schick's 610.7, and his Matchday 9 number at home to Elversberg is the highest projection of that round. If you own Serhou Guirassy, keep him through the Bayern game. If you are choosing one of the two for this week only, it is Patrik Schick.
Jonathan Burkardt (14.3m, FRA) is the mid-price forward: 196.5 → 143.4 → 134.7 on [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF, and he takes Frankfurt's penalties. The value pick is Yussuf Poulsen (6.4m, HSV): 162.6 → 144.4 → 126.9 on [A]FRA → [H]BMG → [A]WER, at 25.48 points per million and 1.0% ownership. He has started few games so far (218 league minutes), so confirm him in the predicted lineups before the deadline.
At the bottom of the price range, Paderborn's Stefano Marino (3.7m, SCP) (128.0 → 120.3 → 90.9) and Steffen Tigges (2.9m, SCP) (112.9 → 105.6 → 88.1) both play on [A]BMG → [H]FRA → [A]B04 and are the two best-value forwards projected to start. Neither has a big ceiling, but both are fine squad fillers that let you afford Harry Kane and Michael Olise together.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | MD8 | MD9 | MD10 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | FCB | 36.9m | 15.0% | 350.1 | 252.4 | 318.4 | 920.9 |
| Patrik Schick | B04 | 19.3m | 14.0% | 226.7 | 168.4 | 215.6 | 610.7 |
| Serhou Guirassy | BVB | 19.2m | 19.0% | 177.0 | 277.7 | 189.0 | 643.7 |
| Jonathan Burkardt | FRA | 14.3m | 6.0% | 196.5 | 143.4 | 134.7 | 474.6 |
| Yussuf Poulsen | HSV | 6.4m | 1.0% | 162.6 | 144.4 | 126.9 | 433.9 |
| Stefano Marino | SCP | 3.7m | 7.0% | 128.0 | 120.3 | 90.9 | 339.2 |
| Steffen Tigges | SCP | 2.9m | 4.0% | 112.9 | 105.6 | 88.1 | 306.6 |
Best captain picks for Matchday 8
The captain scores double, and Matchday 8 has a clear answer. Harry Kane projects 350.1 at home to Dortmund, 700.2 as captain, more than 108 points clear of anyone else. Michael Olise (241.2) is the alternative if you want to split from the crowd while still captaining the Bayern attack, and Patrik Schick (226.7) at home to Stuttgart is the best non-Bayern option.
Plan the next two weeks too, because that decides which premiums to own. In Matchday 9 the top projection belongs to Serhou Guirassy (277.7 at home to Elversberg), slightly ahead of Harry Kane in Mainz (252.4). In Matchday 10 it is Harry Kane again (318.4 at home to Köln). Owning both Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy covers the best captain in each of the next three rounds.
Who to sell before Matchday 8
Josha Vagnoman (7.7m, STU) is still owned by 16.0% and is not expected back until after Matchday 8. He projects nothing this round, and only 60.0 and 65.0 on his return, on [A]B04 → [H]WER → [A]S04. Why now: a zero in your squad this week costs points, and his return projections do not justify waiting.
Jordy Makengo (6.7m, SCF) is owned by 34.0%, and the problem is not Freiburg's fixtures. [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV is the second-best clean-sheet run in the game at 0.90. He turns it into only 70.0 → 67.0 → 64.2, while Keita Kosugi costs less and projects 116.9. Why now: nothing in his program improves, so there is no week worth waiting for.
Younes Ebnoutalib (6.4m, FRA) (32.0% owned) has a good fixture this round. Frankfurt host Hamburg with 2.17 expected goals, and 113.7 is a respectable return. But he is projected for 58 minutes, and his run falls to 83.7 and 81.6 on [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF. Why now: Yussuf Poulsen costs almost exactly the same and out-projects him in each of the next three rounds, so the swap gains points whenever you make it.
Aleksandar Pavlovic (16.2m, FCB) (23.0% owned) sits in the best team program in the game and still projects only 108.9 → 93.7 → 114.1 on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE. Why now: Bayern's strongest run starts with Dortmund this week, and Ismael Saibari, for about 1m more, projects 180.4 in the same game.
Two popular picks can wait a round. Phillip Tietz (13.0m, M05) (26.0%) projects 177.5 in Elversberg, a good week, but Mainz host Bayern next ([A]ELV → [H]FCB → [A]FCA) and he drops to 118.8. Lukas Petkov (9.7m, ELV) (25.0%) is similar: 138.4 at home to Mainz, then 107.9 in Dortmund on [H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF. Keep both for Matchday 8 and use a free transfer on them before Matchday 9.
Matchday 8 summary
Captain Harry Kane. Own Bayern's attack for the next three rounds: Harry Kane and Michael Olise are the template, Ismael Saibari the cheaper differential. Fund it with Keita Kosugi, Tim Skarke and a Paderborn forward, and take Kevin Diks and Hugo Bolin for the Gladbach home game. Keep Serhou Guirassy through the Bayern trip for his Matchday 9. Sell Josha Vagnoman, Jordy Makengo and Younes Ebnoutalib now, and plan Phillip Tietz and Lukas Petkov out for Matchday 9. For more analysis, see the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub and our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8?
Harry Kane. He projects 350.1 points at home to Dortmund, 700.2 as captain, the highest projection of the round by a wide margin. Michael Olise (241.2) and Patrik Schick (226.7) are the alternatives.
Should I sell Serhou Guirassy before Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8?
No. Serhou Guirassy projects only 177.0 away at Bayern, but 277.7 at home to Elversberg in Matchday 9, the top projection of that round, and 643.7 over the next three rounds, more than any forward except Harry Kane.
Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8?
Keita Kosugi (4.1m) projects 116.9 with Frankfurt at home to Hamburg, the best points per million of any starting defender. Benjamin Henrichs (4.3m) projects 106.8 in Leipzig's trip to Schalke.
Should I sell Jordy Makengo before Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8?
Yes. Jordy Makengo projects 70.0 → 67.0 → 64.2 over the next three rounds despite a good Freiburg program, while Keita Kosugi costs less and projects 116.9 this round.
Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 8?
Ismael Saibari (6.0% owned, 180.4 projected), Kevin Diks (1.0%, 159.2) and Yussuf Poulsen (1.0%, 162.6). All three out-project far more popular players at their price.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.