Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7: captain picks, best buys
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7 opens on Friday evening with VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach, and that game sets the tone for the round. Stuttgart carry a 68% win probability and 2.72 expected goals, and Deniz Undav tops the whole player pool at 288.1 projected points. All eighteen clubs play once in Matchday 7, so there are no blanks to plan around. With five free transfers every week you rebuild for the round, but the run behind it still decides which buys are keepers for Matchday 8 and 9 and which are one-week rentals: Stuttgart's big week is followed by a trip to Leverkusen, while RB Leipzig and Bayern München hold their numbers across all three rounds.
All numbers below are the model's projected points. Compare every player in the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks, check who is expected to start in the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups, and see what the solver builds in the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy. Last week's angles are in our Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6 preview.
Matchday 7 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The table ranks all eighteen clubs by 3-round expected goals across Matchday 7 to 9. The first three number columns are this round; the last three are the run behind it, and 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets out of three games. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like. The full calendar is on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]SCF | 64% | 2.71 | 24% | [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 | 7.74 | 0.77 |
| RBL | [H]ELV | 72% | 2.85 | 32% | [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA | 6.96 | 0.93 |
| BVB | [H]FRA | 65% | 2.54 | 29% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.59 | 0.78 |
| STU | [H]BMG | 68% | 2.72 | 29% | [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER | 6.37 | 0.78 |
| B04 | [A]HOF | 42% | 1.87 | 18% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE | 5.83 | 0.67 |
| HOF | [H]B04 | 35% | 1.71 | 15% | [H]B04 → [A]WER → [H]S04 | 5.24 | 0.77 |
| M05 | [H]WER | 57% | 2.04 | 31% | [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB | 5.07 | 0.68 |
| FRA | [A]BVB | 16% | 1.23 | 8% | [A]BVB → [H]HSV → [A]SCP | 4.80 | 0.63 |
| FCA | [H]FCU | 52% | 1.92 | 28% | [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL | 4.47 | 0.65 |
| KOE | [H]S04 | 47% | 1.80 | 26% | [H]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]B04 | 4.38 | 0.67 |
| BMG | [A]STU | 15% | 1.23 | 7% | [A]STU → [H]SCP → [A]HSV | 4.34 | 0.58 |
| SCP | [H]HSV | 40% | 1.63 | 22% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA | 4.28 | 0.58 |
| HSV | [A]SCP | 34% | 1.49 | 20% | [A]SCP → [A]FRA → [H]BMG | 4.20 | 0.61 |
| SCF | [H]FCB | 18% | 1.41 | 7% | [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU | 4.07 | 0.66 |
| FCU | [A]FCA | 25% | 1.28 | 15% | [A]FCA → [H]KOE → [A]SCF | 3.70 | 0.70 |
| S04 | [A]KOE | 28% | 1.35 | 16% | [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF | 3.69 | 0.45 |
| WER | [A]M05 | 20% | 1.16 | 13% | [A]M05 → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 3.43 | 0.47 |
| ELV | [A]RBL | 12% | 1.13 | 6% | [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]BVB | 3.30 | 0.30 |
Bayern München ([A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05) have the best attacking run at 7.74 expected goals, even with two of the three games away. The Dortmund game on Matchday 8 is the one to plan around rather than avoid: Bayern are still the side most likely to score in it. RB Leipzig ([H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA) are the most complete program in the league. They are second for goals at 6.96, have the best clean-sheet total at 0.93 expected clean sheets, and their Matchday 7 home game against Elversberg is the round's best defensive fixture at 32%. That is the program to build your defence around.
Dortmund ([H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV) and Stuttgart ([H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER) are the two classic rotation teams. Both have a strong home game this round, a hard away trip in Matchday 8 and a good home game again in Matchday 9. In this game that is not a problem, because you can step off them for one week at no cost. Further down, Paderborn ([H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA) sit in the lower half for goals at 4.28, but their players are cheap enough to turn into some of the best value picks of the round, covered below.
At the bottom, Elversberg ([A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]BVB) have the weakest program on both measures: 3.30 expected goals and just 0.30 expected clean sheets, with Leipzig and Dortmund away either side of a home game. Werder Bremen ([A]M05 → [H]HOF → [A]STU) and Schalke 04 ([A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF) are not much better. Freiburg ([H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU) is a special case: their defence has a 7% clean-sheet chance against Bayern this week and only gets playable from Matchday 8.
Matchday 7 goalkeepers
Loris Karius (10.8m, S04) is the goalkeeper to own beyond this week. His program is [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF, and he projects 189.0 → 190.4 → 194.2, a flat line that gives the best 3-round total of any goalkeeper at 573.6. Schalke's clean-sheet numbers are modest, so his score leans on saves, and that keeps it high in every game. You can set him and stop thinking about the position for three weeks.
Nahuel Noll (8.4m, SCP) is the value pick: 178.8 at home to Hamburg, then 184.9 → 183.1 on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA, at 21.2 points per million this week. He is cheaper than Karius by 2.4m and only about 27 points behind him over three rounds.
Moritz Nicolas (13.4m, BMG) actually tops the position for Matchday 7 at 211.1 on [A]STU → [H]SCP → [A]HSV, but that score comes from saves in a game where Gladbach have a 7% clean-sheet chance, and at 13.4m he is the most expensive goalkeeper here. Karius out-scores him over three rounds (573.6 against 563.7) for 2.6m less, so if you are buying one and keeping him, buy Karius. For the cheapest playable option, Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) projects 158.8 → 162.5 → 185.1 on [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB at 26.6 points per million, the best value ratio of any goalkeeper.
Matchday 7 defenders
David Raum (18.0m, RBL) is the premium defender, and Leipzig's program is the reason. He projects 166.9 at home to Elversberg, the top defender score of the round, and 445.0 across [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, also the best in the position. Willi Orban (17.1m, RBL) doubles up on the same clean sheets at 143.2 → 121.2 → 128.1, though Raum gives more for similar money.
Alphonso Davies (16.7m, FCB) is the steadiest Bayern defender, at 144.9 → 137.1 → 131.8 on [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05, for 413.8 over three rounds. The model has him at about 75 minutes, so there is some rotation risk, but no other Bayern defender comes close on the program. Dayot Upamecano (18.0m) projects only 111.9 for more money.
Laurin Curda (7.7m, SCP) is the best value defender in the pool: 142.4 at home to Hamburg at 18.4 points per million, and 389.9 over [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA. His 389.9 over three rounds is within six points of Willi Orban and Nico Schlotterbeck, who both cost more than twice as much.
Josha Vagnoman (7.6m, STU), owned by 28.0% of managers, is a one-week hold. He projects 130.3 against Gladbach, but then 70.0 at Leverkusen before recovering to 94.9 against Werder, on [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER. Keep or buy him for Matchday 7 and plan to swap him before Matchday 8. Marius Wolf (6.0m, FCA) is a similar story at 121.4 on [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL, with his line falling to 101.2 and 74.4 as the program gets harder, so he is a two-round pick at most.
For the cheap end of the squad, Adrian Gantenbein (3.6m, S04) projects 89.4 at Köln on [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF, at 25.1 points per million, and Louis Lemke (2.4m, HSV) projects 79.2 at Paderborn on [A]SCP → [A]FRA → [H]BMG, the best points per million of any defender at 32.6. Lemke's minutes estimate is about 70, so he is a bench-filler with upside rather than a nailed starter. Keita Kosugi (3.9m, FRA) is a Matchday 8 buy, not a Matchday 7 one: he projects 75.9 at Dortmund and then 107.4 at home to Hamburg.
Matchday 7 midfielders
Michael Olise (38.1m, FCB) is the premium midfielder and owned by 34.0% of managers. He projects 238.5 → 218.7 → 209.8 on [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05, the highest midfield score in every one of the three rounds and 667.0 in total. He is a hold, not a debate.
The interesting picks are the ones around him. Bilal El Khannouss (13.4m, STU) is the Stuttgart one-rounder: 195.8 at home to Gladbach is the second-best midfield score of the round, but his line drops to 122.1 at Leverkusen before 137.2 against Werder, on [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER. At 1.0% ownership he is a strong differential for this week, to be sold again before Matchday 8. Said El Mala (12.3m, KOE) holds better, at 185.2 → 140.9 → 140.7 on [H]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]B04, and is the better buy if you want a midfielder for all three rounds.
Ismael Saibari (17.3m, FCB) projects 189.8 on the same Bayern run, but the model has him starting only about three games in four (62 projected minutes), which makes El Mala the safer pick at this price. Nadiem Amiri (19.8m, M05) is Mainz's penalty taker and projects 173.4 → 147.6 → 134.0 on [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB, so his best week is this one. Ibrahim Maza (17.1m, B04) is the flat-line option at 156.6 → 160.3 → 149.5 on [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE, a pick you can keep without checking the fixtures again.
The best value is at the cheap end. Tim Skarke (3.9m, FCU) projects 133.5 at Augsburg on [A]FCA → [H]KOE → [A]SCF, at 34.3 points per million, the best ratio of any midfielder, and holds at 127.2 in Matchday 8. Ezechiel Banzuzi (5.4m, RBL) gives you a cheap way into the Leipzig program at 128.4 → 105.1 → 108.2, and Isak Bergmann Johannesson (4.8m, KOE) projects 123.5 at home to Schalke on [H]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]B04. As a cheaper Mainz differential, Jae-Sung Lee (9.4m, M05) projects 147.6 → 136.9 → 103.9 and is owned by only 1.0%.
Matchday 7 forwards
Harry Kane (36.8m, FCB) is the best forward over three rounds at 760.7, projecting 270.1 → 250.7 → 239.9 on [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05. He is Bayern's penalty taker, and he is the only premium who stays above 239 in every round of the window. Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) is just behind at 743.2 for little more than half the price, but his line is the Dortmund program in miniature: 284.1 at home to Frankfurt, 172.2 at Bayern, then 286.9 at home to Elversberg on [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV. Own him in Matchday 7 and 9; in Matchday 8 he is the obvious one to swap out.
Deniz Undav (20.3m, STU) is the top projection of the round at 288.1 against Gladbach, and then drops to 166.5 at Leverkusen before 205.0 at home to Werder on [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER. Ermedin Demirovic (12.2m, STU) is the cheaper way into the same game at 224.7, and his line follows the same shape (122.3 in Matchday 8). Both are strong one-week buys.
Leipzig give you three good forward options for the full window. Romulo Cruz (13.6m, RBL), the club's penalty taker, projects 212.8 → 151.5 → 164.3 on [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, and Christopher Nkunku (17.5m) and Antonio Nusa (16.2m) sit in the same range for more money. Cruz is the one to pick of the three on value. Phillip Tietz (12.6m, M05), owned by 20.0%, projects 199.3 → 194.0 → 141.4 on [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB, so he is good for two rounds before Bayern visit.
The two hidden gems are in the cheap end. Yussuf Poulsen (6.0m, HSV) projects 196.7 at Paderborn and 513.6 over [A]SCP → [A]FRA → [H]BMG, at 32.6 points per million, more than Igor Matanovic (174.0) for roughly a third of his price. Steffen Tigges (2.3m, SCP) is the cheapest playable forward in the game at 133.1 → 110.8 → 113.1 on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA, at 57.5 points per million, an ideal fifteenth man who can still score.
Best captain picks for Matchday 7
The captain scores double, so the decision is between three forwards who are all within 18 points of each other.
Deniz Undav (20.3m, STU) is our Matchday 7 captain at 288.1 projected, against a Gladbach side that has a 15% win probability in Stuttgart. The game is on Friday evening, so you will know early how the armband went.
Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) is a near-identical second at 284.1 at home to Frankfurt, where Dortmund have a 65% win probability and 2.54 expected goals. Harry Kane (36.8m, FCB) is third at 270.1 at Freiburg, and he is the one with the highest floor: Bayern's 2.71 expected goals is among the three highest team numbers of the round.
Looking ahead, Kane is the clear captain in Matchday 8 at 250.7 at home to Dortmund, when both Undav and Guirassy have tough away games. In Matchday 9, Guirassy takes it back at 286.9 against Elversberg. That is the argument for owning Kane all three rounds and rotating the second premium forward between Stuttgart and Dortmund week by week.
Who to sell before Matchday 7
Jordy Makengo (6.2m, SCF) is the clearest sale, and this is the round to do it. 37.0% of managers own him, but Freiburg host Bayern and he projects only 41.5. His line lifts only to 61.4 and 63.6 on [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU, so even the easier games behind it do not make him a keeper, and Curda or Gantenbein out-score him every week for similar or less money.
Yuito Suzuki (10.1m, SCF), owned by 14.0%, is still not in the model's starting eleven, with about 25 projected minutes and 44.7 against Bayern. His line climbs slowly to 67.4 in Matchday 9, never near a starter's level, so there is nothing to wait for.
Younes Ebnoutalib (6.2m, FRA) is owned by 31.0% and is a one-week move rather than a full sale. [A]BVB is a hard fixture and he projects 106.4, but [H]HSV in Matchday 8 lifts him to 134.8. Bench him or swap him for Poulsen this week, and you can bring him back for Hamburg.
Matchday 7 summary
The template this week is Olise and Kane, with a strong case for Undav or Guirassy alongside them and Undav as captain. Where Matchday 7 is won is in the slots after that: Raum and Curda in defence, El Khannouss as a Stuttgart one-rounder or El Mala as the three-round hold, Poulsen and Cruz in attack, and Skarke and Tigges filling the cheap spots. Sell Makengo and Suzuki now, and plan to move off Stuttgart players before Matchday 8. For more analysis see our Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub, the bookmaker-based Bundesliga market probabilities, and our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7?
Deniz Undav is the top captain pick at 288.1 projected points at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Serhou Guirassy (284.1 against Frankfurt) and Harry Kane (270.1 at Freiburg) are the alternatives, and Kane is the strongest captain for Matchday 8.
Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7?
Laurin Curda (7.7m, Paderborn) is the best value defender at 142.4 projected against Hamburg. For the cheapest slots, Adrian Gantenbein (3.6m, Schalke) projects 89.4 and Louis Lemke (2.4m, Hamburg) projects 79.2.
Should I sell Jordy Makengo before Matchday 7?
Yes. Makengo projects only 41.5 with Freiburg hosting Bayern and stays under 64 for the next three rounds, so Curda or Gantenbein are better uses of the slot.
Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 7?
Bilal El Khannouss (13.4m, Stuttgart) projects 195.8 against Gladbach and is owned by 1.0% of managers. Yussuf Poulsen (6.0m, Hamburg) at 196.7 and Steffen Tigges (2.3m, Paderborn) at 133.1 are the best cheap differentials.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.