Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6: captains and best buys

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6 opens on Friday with Eintracht Frankfurt - 1. FC Köln and turns on one game: Bayern München - RB Leipzig on Saturday evening. Bayern carry a 79% win probability and 3.44 expected goals, the biggest numbers of the round, and [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB is also the best three-round program in the league at 8.84 expected goals. All eighteen clubs play in Matchday 6, so there are no blanks to plan around. With five free transfers every week you rebuild for the round, but the run behind it still decides which buys you will want to keep for Matchday 7 and 8 and which are one-week rentals.

All numbers below are the model's projected points. Compare every player in the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks, check who starts in the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups, and see what the solver builds in the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy. Last week's angles are in our Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 preview.

Matchday 6 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

The table ranks the twelve best programs by 3-round expected goals (Matchday 6 to 8), plus the two weakest at the bottom. The first four number columns are this round; the last three are the run behind it, and 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets out of three games. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like.

Bayern are the obvious stack and the program backs it: two home games either side of a trip to Freiburg. The cap is three players per club, so the real question is which three, covered below. Stuttgart ([A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04) have the second-best attacking run at 6.36 expected goals, but it peaks in the middle: the home game against Gladbach is their best week and the trip to Leverkusen the hardest. Dortmund ([A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB) are third at 6.03 and open with the best clean-sheet chance of the round (31%); the trip to Bayern on Matchday 8 is where you move off them. Leverkusen ([H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU) start with one of the easiest home games of the round and finish at home too, which makes them the most balanced program behind Bayern.

The team to plan around is RB Leipzig. At 1.23 expected goals and a 3% clean-sheet chance in Munich they are one of the worst picks of Matchday 6, yet [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]S04 lifts them to fifth over three rounds. That is a Matchday 7 buy, not a Matchday 6 one. Mainz quietly have the joint-best defensive run in the game (0.83 expected clean sheets, level with Bayern) without a big club in it.

At the bottom, Union Berlin ([H]BVB → [A]FCA → [H]KOE) and Freiburg ([A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA) have the two weakest programs of all eighteen clubs, at 3.82 and 3.83 expected goals. Freiburg's 0.44 expected clean sheets is the second-lowest defensive run in the league. Kick-off times are on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule.

Goalkeepers

Moritz Nicolas (13.4m, BMG) has the best keeper score of the round at 194.5, on a program of [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]SCP. His trajectory is 194.5 → 212.6 → 173.4, so the Stuttgart away game that looks hardest on paper is actually his best projection: a busy keeper collects save points. Only 3.0% of managers own him.

Loris Karius (10.8m, S04) is the hold. [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]RBL gives a flat 187.2 → 191.2 → 192.0, and his 570.4 over three rounds is close to Nicolas at 10.8m rather than 13.4m. If you want a keeper you can stop thinking about, it is Karius.

Nahuel Noll (8.4m, SCP) is second for the round at 191.4 with [A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG behind it (191.4 → 180.4 → 186.4), a sensible middle-price option. The value pick is Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) at 166.1 for [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV: 27.9 points per million, the best value in the position, and Mainz's run carries 0.83 expected clean sheets.

Defenders

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.9m, STU) tops the position for the round and for the next three: 186.0 → 187.1 → 133.5 on [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04, 506.6 in total, more than 120 points clear of the next defender. The dip comes at Leverkusen on Matchday 8, so he is a two-round buy at minimum. He produced 0.43 xGI per 90 across last season, which is where the attacking floor comes from.

This is also the position where the round and the program disagree. Olivier Deman (10.0m, WER) projects 145.4 against Paderborn, second among defenders this round, but then falls away: 145.4 → 98.3 → 102.5 on [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF. Anthony Caci (9.7m, M05) starts lower at 121.5 and then rises, 121.5 → 136.3 → 124.0 on [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV, for 381.8 over three rounds, the second-best total of any defender. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Caci; Deman is a one-round pick to sell again before Matchday 7. Caci is owned by 2.0%, which also makes him a differential.

His teammate Stefan Posch (10.6m, M05) is the one of the flattest lines in the position, 120.8 → 123.3 → 122.8 on the same Mainz program, with a 0.99 starter factor for Matchday 6. A Caci-Posch pair doubles up on the 0.83 expected clean sheets. Ozan Kabak (13.7m, HOF) is the alternative at 132.0 → 115.9 → 117.5 on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]WER, and Laurin Curda (7.7m, SCP), owned by 8.0%, gives 111.9 → 128.9 → 111.3 on [A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG at a much lower price.

The budget pick is Jan Leszcynski (2.8m, BMG): 109.5 at home to Hoffenheim is 38.4 points per million, the best value of any defender, and he is projected to start (a 0.99 starter factor). His program [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]SCP runs 109.5 → 86.4 → 98.3, so he holds a useful level for very little money. Keita Kosugi (3.9m, FRA) is the other cheap option at 114.5 against Köln, but [H]KOE → [A]BVB → [H]HSV drops him to 69.5 at Dortmund, so treat him as a one-round buy and swap him out for Matchday 7.

One to buy next round: David Raum (18.0m, RBL) projects only 67.1 in Munich, but 67.1 → 156.4 → 121.1 on [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]S04 makes him a Matchday 7 target once the Bayern trip is out of the way.

Midfielders

Michael Olise (38.1m, FCB) is the highest-scoring midfielder by a distance: 251.5 → 222.7 → 186.1 on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, 660.3 over three rounds. He is owned by 34.0% of managers, and last season's 1.12 xGI per 90 (15 goals, 19 assists) explains why. He is the template, not the differentiator; the points that move your rank come from the slots after him. Jamal Musiala is out for Matchday 6 and 7 and the model has him back from Matchday 8, so he is not part of the Bayern question this week.

For the round, Can Uzun (16.0m, FRA) is the pick behind Olise at 196.8 against Köln. His program [H]KOE → [A]BVB → [H]HSV runs 196.8 → 125.9 → 150.1, so the Dortmund week is a real drop. Ibrahim Maza (17.1m, B04) scores less this round (169.7) but holds up better on [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU: 169.7 → 154.9 → 158.7, and his 483.3 over three rounds is now ahead of Uzun's 472.8. Uzun for the round, Maza if you want to keep him through Matchday 8.

Nadiem Amiri (19.8m, M05) peaks in the middle of his run: 162.8 → 171.2 → 144.8 on [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV, backed by 0.78 xGI per 90 last season. Said El Mala (12.3m, KOE), owned by 12.0%, is the cheaper way to the same level: 172.1 → 168.8 → 127.6 on [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU, with two strong weeks before the trip to Union. Lukas Petkov (9.3m, ELV) is the template value pick at 24.0% ownership, 170.3 at home to Augsburg on [H]FCA → [A]RBL → [H]M05 and 18.3 points per million; the trip to Leipzig on Matchday 7 is his weak week.

Two differentials stand out. Ritsu Doan (14.8m, FRA) projects 162.2 on the same Frankfurt program (162.2 → 107.2 → 127.6), so like Uzun he is best used this week. Chuki (7.2m, WER), owned by 3.0%, is the cheaper one at 161.0 against Paderborn on [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF, 22.4 points per million, though like every Bremen player he drops off after this week (161.0 → 112.1 → 111.5).

On a tight squad, Bambase Conte (6.7m, HOF) gives 149.3 → 135.7 → 120.1 on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]WER at 22.3 points per million. The cheapest useful option is Isak Bergmann Johannesson (4.8m, KOE): 124.5 → 106.6 → 88.9 on [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU is 25.7 points per million this round, and the model has him starting. Ismael Saibari projects 179.2 for Bayern but on a 0.62 starter factor, so check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before you rely on him.

Forwards

Harry Kane (36.8m, FCB) is the highest-projected player of the round at 328.1 on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, and the best in the game over three rounds at 855.7 (328.1 → 282.1 → 245.5). Last season's 1.17 xGI per 90 and 36 goals make him the safest premium on the board.

Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) is the second-best forward for the round at 241.4 on [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB, and his line runs 241.4 → 264.8 → 165.7: his best week is Matchday 7 at home to Frankfurt, then the Bayern trip. He is a two-round buy. Here the round and the program disagree as well. Luis Diaz (28.1m, FCB) out-scores Patrik Schick (19.2m, B04) this round, 222.7 to 219.1, but Schick has 621.8 over three rounds against Diaz's 587.0, on [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU rather than [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, and costs roughly 9m less. If you are choosing one, choose Schick; Diaz also has the weaker starter factor (0.80).

Phillip Tietz (12.6m, M05) gets better after this week: 185.4 → 203.4 → 196.7 on [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV, and he is the third-best player in the game on Matchday 8. Deniz Undav (20.3m, STU) is the timing call on [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04: 183.3 at Hamburg, then 251.2 at home to Gladbach on Matchday 7, the third-highest Matchday 7 projection in the game. He is a Matchday 7 buy more than a Matchday 6 one.

The value differentials start with Yussuf Poulsen (6.0m, HSV): 180.3 → 189.4 → 151.2 on [H]STU → [A]SCP → [A]FRA, 29.9 points per million, and the model now has him starting (a 0.99 starter factor). Cheaper still is Marvin Pieringer (3.1m, SCP), owned by 3.0%: 135.6 → 156.1 → 127.7 on [A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG is 44.3 points per million this round, the best value of any player in the position. Werder's pair for the Paderborn game on [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF, Niclas Füllkrug (12.3m, WER) at 206.5 and Marco Grüll (8.9m, WER) at 187.6, are strictly one-round buys: both fall away after this week (206.5 → 135.3 → 132.6 and 187.6 → 129.4 → 130.1).

Younes Ebnoutalib (6.2m, FRA) is the same shape. The model has him in Frankfurt's starting eleven against Köln and projects 172.2, 27.7 points per million, but [H]KOE → [A]BVB → [H]HSV then drops him to 79.6 → 100.9. 31.0% of managers own him: keep him for Matchday 6, then he is a sale for Matchday 7.

Best captain picks for Matchday 6

The captain scores double in Bundesliga Fantasy, and Harry Kane is the clear choice at 328.1 at home to Leipzig on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, 76.6 points clear of the next-best player. Olise (251.5 against Leipzig) and Guirassy (241.4 at Union) are the alternatives, almost level with each other. Schick (219.1) is the pick if you want to fade Bayern.

Looking ahead, Kane stays the top captain on Matchday 7 (282.1 at Freiburg) with Guirassy (264.8) and Undav (251.2) behind him, and on Matchday 8 Kane (245.5) leads again ahead of Schick (205.4) and Tietz (196.7). Owning Kane is a three-round captaincy plan, not a one-week decision. Market lines for every fixture are on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities page.

Who to sell before Matchday 6

Yuito Suzuki (10.1m, SCF) is the clearest sale, and the round to do it is this one. 30.0% of managers still own him, but the model does not have him in Freiburg's starting eleven at Leverkusen and projects only 32.1. His line climbs slowly (32.1 → 48.3 → 64.0) on [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, and it never gets anywhere near a starter's level, so there is nothing to wait for.

Jordy Makengo (6.2m, SCF) is owned by 38.0% and sits on the same [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA run, one of the two weakest programs in the league. He projects 49.5 → 30.3 → 52.4; with Leverkusen away and Bayern at home in the first two weeks, there is no point holding him for the Augsburg trip. Freiburg's forward Igor Matanovic is a different case: he holds up at 176.6 this round and is worth keeping.

Josha Vagnoman (7.6m, STU), owned by 28.0%, is the softer sell. Stuttgart's program is good, but he projects only 81.9 at Hamburg on [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04, then 112.9 against Gladbach and 57.0 at Leverkusen. Mittelstaedt is the Stuttgart defender to own, and the money buys Caci or Posch on a better line.

Summary

The template this week is Harry Kane, Michael Olise and a third Bayern player, with Kane as captain. Where Matchday 6 is won is in the slots after that: Mittelstaedt and the Mainz pair Caci and Posch in defence, Uzun for the round or Maza for the run in midfield, Schick over Diaz up front, and Pieringer and Poulsen as the cheap forwards. Sell Suzuki and Makengo now, keep Ebnoutalib for one more week, and keep Raum, Guirassy and Undav on your list for Matchday 7. For more rounds, see the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub and our fantasy guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6?

Harry Kane. He projects 328.1 at home to RB Leipzig, the highest score of any player this round, and he stays the top captain option on Matchday 7 and 8. Michael Olise and Serhou Guirassy are the alternatives.

Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6?

Jan Leszcynski (2.8m) at 109.5 against Hoffenheim is the best value at 38.4 points per million and holds a useful level over the next three rounds. Keita Kosugi (3.9m) scores 114.5 against Köln but is a one-round buy.

Should I sell Yuito Suzuki before Matchday 6?

Yes. He projects only 32.1 because the model does not have him starting at Leverkusen, his next three rounds never reach a starter's level, and 30.0% of managers still own him.

Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 6?

Moritz Nicolas in goal (3.0% owned, 194.5), Anthony Caci and Stefan Posch in defence, Chuki and Said El Mala in midfield, and Marvin Pieringer and Yussuf Poulsen up front. Caci, Posch and Pieringer are the ones that also hold up over the next three rounds.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.