Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5: captain picks, best buys
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 tips: captain, best buys, differentials and sells
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 opens on Friday night with Borussia Dortmund at home to Werder Bremen and runs through Sunday evening in Freiburg. All nine fixtures are in the round and every club plays once, so there is nothing to plan around. Five free transfers a week mean the decision is always this round, but the best use of those transfers is a player you will not need to replace seven days later. So every pick below carries its Matchday 5 to 7 program, and the sells are the players whose run, or whose minutes, have fallen away. The full numbers are on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks page, and the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy solve the best squad for any window you choose.
Missed last week? The Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4 preview is still up, and every round sits in the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub.
Matchday 5 to 7: whose next three fixtures are worth owning
Every club has three fixtures across Matchdays 5, 6 and 7, so the totals below compare like with like. Bayern München have the best run in the game by a distance: [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF adds up to 9.34 expected goals, and the Augsburg trip carries an 81% win probability. Leipzig at home in Matchday 6 is the game to plan around, not one to avoid. Borussia Dortmund are second on 6.81 expected goals and have the most expected clean sheets of anyone (1.00), starting with Werder Bremen at home and a 36% clean-sheet chance, the best of the round by a fraction ahead of Freiburg. Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG is right behind on 6.69, which is why their players keep showing up below.
| Team | Matchday 5 | Win prob. | Exp. goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD5-7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]FCA | 81% | 3.51 | 33% | [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF | 9.34 | 0.95 |
| BVB | [H]WER | 71% | 2.63 | 36% | [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA | 6.81 | 1.00 |
| STU | [A]SCP | 61% | 2.37 | 28% | [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG | 6.69 | 0.83 |
| RBL | [H]FRA | 60% | 2.52 | 24% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.32 | 0.64 |
| HOF | [H]HSV | 67% | 2.47 | 34% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 | 6.02 | 0.73 |
| B04 | [A]M05 | 45% | 1.86 | 22% | [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF | 5.78 | 0.72 |
| KOE | [H]BMG | 46% | 1.83 | 24% | [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04 | 5.10 | 0.67 |
| M05 | [H]B04 | 31% | 1.54 | 16% | [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER | 4.87 | 0.73 |
| FRA | [A]RBL | 20% | 1.44 | 8% | [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB | 4.66 | 0.43 |
| SCF | [H]S04 | 60% | 2.02 | 36% | [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB | 4.33 | 0.56 |
| ELV | [A]FCU | 35% | 1.56 | 18% | [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL | 4.29 | 0.45 |
| FCA | [H]FCB | 7% | 1.10 | 3% | [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU | 4.22 | 0.49 |
| FCU | [H]ELV | 41% | 1.71 | 21% | [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA | 4.15 | 0.57 |
| SCP | [H]STU | 19% | 1.28 | 9% | [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV | 4.11 | 0.47 |
| BMG | [A]KOE | 30% | 1.44 | 16% | [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 4.11 | 0.41 |
| WER | [A]BVB | 12% | 1.01 | 7% | [A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05 | 4.05 | 0.54 |
| HSV | [A]HOF | 14% | 1.06 | 8% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP | 3.94 | 0.40 |
| S04 | [A]SCF | 18% | 1.02 | 13% | [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE | 3.68 | 0.50 |
Two rows matter more than their ranking suggests. Freiburg's [H]S04 is one of the better home fixtures of the round (60% win, 36% clean sheet), but [A]B04 → [H]FCB follows, and that is what drives the Freiburg sells further down. Leipzig are the opposite shape: a good start at home to Frankfurt, then the trip to Munich, then Elversberg at home. Hoffenheim's [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 is the best program in the middle of the table, and their cheap players are among the best points per million in the game. Check the full Bundesliga Fantasy schedule for every fixture and kick-off time.
Matchday 5 goalkeepers
The round and the three-round view disagree in goal. Finn Dahmen (10.3m, FCA) leads the position this round at 206 because Bayern visit: Augsburg have a 3% clean-sheet chance, but a busy afternoon is worth more in saves than a quiet clean sheet is worth in points. His program [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU keeps him at 180 and 169 afterwards, so he is a hold for the 18% who own him rather than a one-week punt.
Moritz Nicolas (13.7m, BMG) is the keeper to buy and keep. His program is [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU and his projection rises every round, 191 → 196 → 200, for a best-in-position 588 over the three, with only 3% ownership. Loris Karius (10.6m, S04) is the flattest projection at a lower price: [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE gives 196 → 186 → 190, 572 in total, and across Matchdays 5 to 10 no keeper projects more (1,155). If you are buying one goalkeeper to keep, buy Nicolas or Karius rather than Dahmen.
The value route is Nahuel Noll (8.5m, SCP) at 198 → 191 → 178 over [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV, 568 in total for under 9m and 23 points per million this round. Cheaper still, Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) projects 175 for [H]B04 and holds up with [A]S04 → [H]WER (168, 156): 29 points per million is the best goalkeeper value in the game.
Matchday 5 defenders
Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.5m, STU) is the top defender this round at 183 and the top defender over three rounds at 479. Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG is the reason, and his 0.23 expected assists in Paderborn make him an attacking full-back first. His projection eases (183 → 162 → 134), but even the Gladbach week out-scores most defenders' best.
Alphonso Davies (16.3m, FCB) rides the best program in the league, [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, for 178 → 157 → 134, second among defenders both this round and over three at 469. Ozan Kabak (13.7m, HOF) is the cheaper premium: Hoffenheim host Hamburg with a 34% clean-sheet chance, then [A]BMG → [H]B04, for 150 → 122 → 104.
The value pick is Leopold Querfeld (10.5m, FCU). Union's [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA gives him 177 this round, third among all defenders, and 129 and 137 after, 443 in total. He is owned by 4% and carries 0.27 expected goals this round, high for a centre-back. David Raum (18.1m, RBL) is the one-round alternative at 167: Leipzig's [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV drops him to 78 in Munich before 159 against Elversberg. With five transfers a week Raum is usable for this round, but Querfeld is the better buy for 7.6m less.
For a longer hold on a small price, Laurin Curda (7.4m, SCP) is the defender whose projection rises at the end: [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV gives 122 → 116 → 136, 374 in total, level with Kabak (376) for about half the money and more than Josha Vagnoman (324) at a similar price. The real budget answers are Jan Leszcynski (2.7m, BMG), 97 in Köln for 36 points per million, the best defender value in the game, and Koki Machida (3.5m, HOF), 108 at home to Hamburg for 31 points per million. Leszcynski's [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU stays flat at 97 → 82 → 80; Machida's [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 drops him to 84 and 70, so treat him as a cheap Matchday 5 slot. Keita Kosugi (3.8m, FRA) is the one to pencil in for next week: 92 at Leipzig, then 123 at home to Köln in Matchday 6 on [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB.
Matchday 5 midfielders
Michael Olise (37.7m, FCB) is the template player at 32% ownership and he earns it: 307 → 281 → 212 over [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, with 0.62 expected goals and 0.44 expected assists this round. Owning him does not separate you from anyone. The midfielders that do are below.
Ismael Saibari (17.2m, FCB) is the Bayern differential at 7% ownership: 217 → 202 → 153 on the same program as Olise for less than half the price, and 572 over three rounds, second only to Olise among midfielders. The catch is minutes: the model gives him a 73% start factor and 58 expected minutes, so check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before Saturday's 15:30 kick-off.
Said El Mala (12.2m, KOE) is the best midfielder under 15m over the three rounds. He projects 195 at home to Gladbach with 0.51 expected goals, and [A]FRA → [H]S04 keeps him at 164 and 170. His 528 over three is more than Ibrahim Maza (454) for 4.7m less. Nadiem Amiri (20.0m, M05) is the steadiest premium after Olise: 159 → 156 → 154 on [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER, and he is on Mainz's penalties.
Here the round and the program split. Joey Veerman (14.1m, BVB), barely owned, projects 173 at home to Werder Bremen with 0.31 expected assists, then 136 and 128 on [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 437 in total. Bilal El Khannouss (13.4m, STU) scores slightly less this round (171) but holds 148 and 158 on [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, 477 over three. For one week they are interchangeable; to keep, take El Khannouss.
On a budget, Bambase Conte (6.3m, HOF) scores 156 against Hamburg, 25 points per million, and [A]BMG → [H]B04 brings him to 134 and 113, so he is a buy for this round that you can keep for the next. Lukas Petkov (9.1m, ELV) is the steadier cheap hold: 165 → 172 → 130 over [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL, and he is on Elversberg's penalties. Ezechiel Banzuzi (4.9m, RBL) projects 120 against Frankfurt (24 points per million) but only 88 in Munich on [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV, so he is a filler you rotate around the Bayern week.
Matchday 5 forwards
Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) is the highest projection in the game this round at 351, with 0.89 expected goals at home to Werder Bremen, and his program [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA gives 351 → 241 → 229. At 18 points per million he is also far better value than either Bayern forward. Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) is right behind at 342, and over the three rounds he is the best player in the game: 342 → 308 → 227 on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, 877 in total, with Bayern's penalties. Luis Diaz (28.6m, FCB) projects 280 → 254 → 189 on the same run. If you can only fit one premium forward, Guirassy gives you the most points for the money; if you can fit two, Kane is the one who also leads Matchday 6.
The round and the three-round view disagree again lower down. Igor Matanovic out-scores Deniz Undav (20.7m, STU) this round, 250 to 241. Over Matchdays 5 to 7 Undav is clearly ahead, 661 to 552, because Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG holds him at 206 and 214 while Freiburg's run collapses. If you are buying one of them and keeping him, buy Undav. Patrik Schick (19.0m, B04) is the premium forward whose projection rises into next week: 202 at Mainz, 221 at home to Freiburg, then 182 at Hoffenheim, 605 in total, and he takes Leverkusen's penalties.
The hidden gem is Fabio Silva (9.9m, BVB): 229 against Werder Bremen at 23 points per million, owned by 2%, and the sixth-highest forward projection of the round, at least 6.6m cheaper than anyone above him. [A]FCU → [H]FRA brings 150 and 134, 514 over three, so he is a strong Matchday 5 buy that stays playable. For a longer hold, Yussuf Poulsen (5.8m, HSV) is barely owned and rises into next week: 154 at Hoffenheim, 185 at home to Stuttgart, 165 in Paderborn, 504 over [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP. Adam Hlozek (9.4m, HOF) still projects 184 against Hamburg, but his start factor is only 86%, so Silva is the safer differential.
The cheapest real forward in the game is Marvin Pieringer (3.0m, SCP): 149 → 137 → 154 over [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV, 440 in total, and his 50 points per million this round is the best value in the whole game. His team-mate Stefano Marino (2.8m) is the alternative at 121 if Pieringer does not fit.
Captain picks for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5
The captain scores double in Bundesliga Fantasy, and Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) is the choice at 351. Dortmund have a 71% win probability and 2.63 expected goals at home to Werder Bremen on Friday night, and his program, [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, keeps him in the armband conversation for all three rounds. Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) is a very close second at 342 in Augsburg, and Michael Olise (307) is the third option. Looking ahead, Kane leads Matchday 6 at 308 against Leipzig with Olise next on 281, and in Matchday 7 Guirassy (229) and Kane (227) are level at the top. So the cheapest way to have a strong captain in each of the next three rounds is Guirassy plus Kane. Compare the underlying odds on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities page.
Who to sell before Matchday 5
Sell now, minutes: three owned players have no week in this run where they earn their price, because the model does not have them starting. Nathaniel Brown (14.9m, FCB) is owned by 13% and projects 32 → 48 → 49 on 14 expected minutes despite the best program in the league; that money is better spent on Davies or Querfeld this round. Jobe Bellingham (8.0m, BVB) is the same case at 36 → 55 → 58 on 20 expected minutes, still owned by 12%, and Conte out-scores him by 120 points this round for less money. Konstantinos Karetsas (15.9m, BVB) is not in the projected Dortmund eleven: 49 → 65 → 67 on 21 expected minutes, with 9% still holding him. Fabio Silva is the Dortmund replacement for 6.0m less. None of the three improves later in the window, so this is the round to move.
Stuttgart's Fabian Bredlow (5.1m, 19% owned) is a related case: the model gives him only a 44% start factor this round and he projects 61 → 62 → 98. Schwolow or Noll at similar money are the swaps, and both out-score him in every one of the next three rounds.
Sell after this round: Freiburg are the sell-into case. Yuito Suzuki (35% owned), Jordy Makengo (35%) and Igor Matanovic (25%) all have a good home fixture against Schalke: Matanovic projects 250, the fifth-highest score in the game this round, and Suzuki 161. Do not sell them for that game. But [A]B04 → [H]FCB follows, and Matanovic drops to 160 and 142, Suzuki to 111 and 101, Makengo from 86 to 48 and 39. Keep them for Matchday 5 and plan the transfers out for Matchday 6. Younes Ebnoutalib (31% owned) is the reverse shape: 86 at Leipzig, then 147 at home to Köln, then 67 in Dortmund, and only a 56% start factor this round. He is a sell for Matchday 5 and at most a one-week re-buy for the Köln game.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
Serhou Guirassy is the best captain for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 with 351 projected points at home to Werder Bremen, where Dortmund have a 71% win probability. Harry Kane (342, away at Augsburg) is a very close second and Michael Olise (307) the third option.
Who are the best budget defenders for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
Jan Leszcynski (2.7m, Gladbach) projects 97 points in Köln, 36 points per million, and Koki Machida (3.5m, Hoffenheim) projects 108 at home to Hamburg. Laurin Curda (7.4m, Paderborn) is the better hold, rising to 136 in Matchday 7.
Best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
Fabio Silva (9.9m, Dortmund, 2% owned) projects 229 at home to Werder Bremen. Yussuf Poulsen (5.8m, Hamburg) is barely owned and projects 504 over Matchdays 5 to 7, and Ismael Saibari (17.2m, Bayern, 7% owned) projects 217 but carries a minutes risk.
Should I sell Igor Matanovic before Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
No, not yet. Matanovic projects 250 points at home to Schalke this round. Sell him for Matchday 6, when Freiburg's [A]B04 → [H]FCB run drops him to 160 and 142.
Which goalkeeper should I pick for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
Finn Dahmen leads this round with 206 points against Bayern, mostly from saves. Moritz Nicolas is the best three-round keeper at 588 points, rising every week, and Alexander Schwolow (6.0m) is the best value.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.