Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5: captains, differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems
Matchday 5 of Bundesliga Fantasy is the first round after the international break, and that gap changes how the round should be read. Matchday 4 finished on 20 September; Matchday 5 does not kick off until Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen on 9 October. Three weeks of national-team football sit in between, so treat the projections below as the shape of the round rather than the last word on any one starting eleven — check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups again in the days before the deadline.
What the break does not change is the fixture programme, and that is where this round is won. Borussia Dortmund open at home to Werder Bremen in the only Friday game, Bayern München travel to Augsburg, and the round closes with Freiburg at home to Schalke 04. Below: the three-round programmes worth owning, the best buys by position, a ranked captain section, the differentials almost nobody holds, and the popular names whose numbers no longer justify a place.
Matchday 5 programmes: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The table ranks all 18 clubs by expected goals across Matchdays 5, 6 and 7 — not by this weekend alone. Bayern München have the strongest attacking run in the game at 8.79 expected goals over the three ([A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF), and Borussia Dortmund the best defensive one at 1.04 expected clean sheets from three matches ([H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA). Every club plays all three rounds, so no team blanks and no total below is inflated by an extra fixture.
| Team | MD5 fixture | Win prob | MD5 xG | MD5 CS | Programme (MD5–MD7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [A]FCA | 78% | 3.38 | 30% | [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF | 8.79 | 0.92 |
| Borussia Dortmund | [H]WER | 70% | 2.59 | 36% | [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA | 6.37 | 1.04 |
| RB Leipzig | [H]FRA | 62% | 2.47 | 26% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.31 | 0.68 |
| VfB Stuttgart | [A]SCP | 59% | 2.23 | 28% | [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG | 6.21 | 0.86 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | [A]M05 | 43% | 1.80 | 22% | [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF | 5.64 | 0.79 |
| Hoffenheim | [H]HSV | 70% | 2.58 | 35% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 | 5.63 | 0.76 |
| 1. FC Köln | [H]BMG | 48% | 1.86 | 25% | [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04 | 4.88 | 0.75 |
| Mainz 05 | [H]B04 | 32% | 1.54 | 17% | [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER | 4.81 | 0.79 |
| Augsburg | [H]FCB | 9% | 1.19 | 3% | [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU | 4.21 | 0.55 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | [A]RBL | 19% | 1.33 | 8% | [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB | 4.17 | 0.49 |
| Freiburg | [H]S04 | 58% | 1.99 | 34% | [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB | 4.08 | 0.55 |
| Paderborn | [H]STU | 20% | 1.26 | 11% | [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV | 4.08 | 0.56 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | [A]KOE | 28% | 1.37 | 16% | [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 3.98 | 0.50 |
| Elversberg | [A]FCU | 34% | 1.48 | 19% | [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL | 3.96 | 0.48 |
| Union Berlin | [H]ELV | 41% | 1.64 | 23% | [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA | 3.92 | 0.64 |
| Hamburger SV | [A]HOF | 13% | 1.04 | 8% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP | 3.82 | 0.44 |
| Werder Bremen | [A]BVB | 12% | 1.03 | 8% | [A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05 | 3.61 | 0.55 |
| Schalke 04 | [A]SCF | 19% | 1.07 | 14% | [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE | 3.50 | 0.52 |
Two reads matter. First, the attacking teams at the top are not automatically good defensive buys: RB Leipzig carry 6.31 expected goals over three rounds but only 0.68 expected clean sheets, while Borussia Dortmund pair 6.37 xG with 1.04 expected clean sheets — the better home for a defender. Second, several of the best goalkeeper scores in this game come from the clubs near the bottom of this table, because saves are worth so much. Compare the full numbers on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks page and the round-by-round fixtures on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule.
Goalkeepers for Matchday 5: saves beat clean sheets
The highest-projected keeper in the game this round is the one with the hardest fixture. Augsburg are at home to Bayern München, and the model gives Finn Dahmen (10.3m, FCA) just a 3% clean-sheet chance — but 5.2 projected saves, the most of any keeper in the pool, and that carries him to 203 points, clear of the field. His programme is [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU, so the volume argument holds beyond this weekend: 542 over the three rounds, at 19.6 points per million.
If you would rather not pay for that, Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) is the value answer. He is the cheapest regular starter between the posts, projects 173 this round with a programme of [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER worth 488, and at 29.0 points per million he is the best rate of any goalkeeper in the game. Nahuel Noll (8.5m, SCP) is the third route: 193 this round, 548 across [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV, and only 9% of managers hold him. Over the full three rounds the ranking flips — Moritz Nicolas (13.7m, BMG) tops the goalkeepers on 570, ahead of Loris Karius (10.6m, S04) on 564 and Noah Atubolu (10.3m, FRA) on 551 — so if you are buying one keeper and leaving him alone, the three-round column is the one to read, not this weekend.
Best defenders to buy for Matchday 5
Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.5m, STU) is the premium pick and the best defender in the game on both horizons: 175 this round and 473 across [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, the top defensive total either way. He takes penalties — a 0.87 share, extraordinary for a defender — and adds 0.21 expected assists on top of a 26% clean-sheet chance. That penalty duty is what makes him a hold rather than a rotation, because it does not switch off when the fixture hardens.
For a cheaper route into the best defensive programme in the game, Julian Ryerson (12.7m, BVB) is the pick: 354 over [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA and 144 this round at 11.3 points per million, better value than Waldemar Anton (17.0m, BVB) alongside him, who costs more for a similar output. Leopold Querfeld (10.5m, FCU) is the aggressive alternative — a 0.73 penalty share and 0.19 expected goals from defence, 126 this round and 336 over [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA. Remember the cap of three players from one club when you stack a back line: Borussia Dortmund carry the strongest defensive run, so pick three and stop.
The budget defender is Laurin Curda (7.4m, SCP). He projects 118 this round and, unusually, his programme rises rather than fades: 379 across [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV. At 15.8 points per million with 5% ownership he is the cheapest way to hold a three-round starter in defence, and he ranks third among all defenders on the three-round table — above names costing more than twice as much. Kevin Diks (10.1m, BMG) is the other cheap body worth naming: 327 across [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU, and a 0.92 penalty share, the biggest of any defender in the game.
Midfielders: the premium, the value and the unowned name
Michael Olise (37.7m, FCB) is the most expensive player in the game and the top midfielder on both horizons — 237 this round, 646 across [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, with 0.45 expected goals and 0.37 expected assists in the opener alone. At 26% ownership he is close to template, and the case for him is the programme rather than the weekend: his trajectory reads 237 → 218 → 192, the flattest high-ceiling run any premium has.
Joey Veerman (14.1m, BVB) is the differential the model likes most here, and almost nobody owns him — ownership rounds to zero. 184 this round, 421 over [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 0.23 expected assists and a 26% clean-sheet share from a midfield role. The honest caveat is rotation: his starter factor is 0.73, so he is a strong bet rather than a certainty, and the projection already prices that in. Ethan Nwaneri (11.3m, BVB) is the same trade at a lower price on the same [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA run (170 this round, 0.64 starter factor), while Felix Nmecha (12.4m, BVB) is the safest of the three on minutes.
The value midfielder is Ezechiel Banzuzi (4.9m, RBL): 125 this round and 325 across [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV, at 25.7 points per million, among the very best rates in the game, and 15% owned. Jan-Niklas Beste (8.1m, SCF) is the other one worth naming at the cheap end — 139 this round and 339 over [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB with 0.19 expected assists. On the three-round table Ismael Saibari (17.2m, FCB) and Jamal Musiala (22.3m, FCB) sit second and third behind Michael Olise on 451 and 449, but both are club-capped against the other Bayern München assets you are likely to want.
Forwards: one name towers over Matchday 5
Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) projects 356 points. The next-best player in the entire game is on 237. Nothing in the data is close: 0.73 expected goals in a single fixture, a 32% clean-sheet share on top, 75 projected minutes, and a programme of [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA worth 803 — the highest three-round total of any player by more than 150 points. He is 23% owned, which for the clear top pick is low.
Behind him the round and the programme disagree, and the disagreement is the useful part. Maximilian Beier (11.9m, BVB) out-scores Luis Diaz (28.6m, FCB) this weekend, but only by half a point (214.1 to 213.6) — and over the three rounds it reverses hard, 579 to 430. The reason is the run behind the weekend: Diaz holds his level across [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF (214 → 195 → 170), while Beier falls away across [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA (214 → 101 → 114). If you are buying one and keeping him, buy the programme. If you are happy to change again next week, take the weekend. Igor Matanovic (16.5m, SCF) is the same story a tier down: 212 this round across [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB, against 174 for Deniz Undav (20.7m, STU) across [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG — but 524 versus 466 over the three, so the Stuttgart forward is the one to hold.
The best-value forward of anyone projecting three figures is Adam Hlozek (9.4m, HOF): 187 this round at 19.9 points per million, 444 across [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, and only 3% ownership. His club-mate Tim Lemperle (11.4m, HOF) is the penalty-taking version of the same idea (0.51 share, 178 this round, 413 over the same [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 run). And the cheapest player in the game projecting triple figures is Marvin Pieringer (3.0m, SCP) — 133 this round on 73 projected minutes, a rising [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV trajectory of 133 → 125 → 140, and 43.9 points per million, the highest rate of any player in Bundesliga Fantasy. The optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy page solves the full squad live if you want to see how the cheap enablers fit.
Who to captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5
The captain scores double in Bundesliga Fantasy, and this is one of the least controversial armbands of the season.
- Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB) — 356 projected, 0.73 expected goals at home to Werder Bremen. The gap to second place is more than 100 points before doubling, and his programme ([H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 803 over three rounds) means he keeps the armband in Matchday 6 and Matchday 7 on current numbers.
- Michael Olise (37.7m, FCB) — 237, and the safest floor of the premiums: 0.45 expected goals plus 0.37 expected assists away at Augsburg. His trajectory 237 → 218 → 192 barely moves, so he is the armband if you do not own the man above him.
- Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) — 220, a programme of [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, and a 0.75 penalty share that lifts the floor. Worth holding for Matchday 6 in particular, where he projects 201 at home to RB Leipzig.
The one-line version: captain Serhou Guirassy, and if the break rules him out, Michael Olise. Cross-check the live odds behind these numbers on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities page.
Who to sell before Matchday 5
Yuito Suzuki (10.1m, SCF) is the most-owned player in the game at 31%, and Matchday 5 is the round to move him on. This is not a fixture complaint: Schalke 04 at home is a good draw and 144 points is a perfectly respectable return. The reason to act now is what follows — his programme is [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB and his trajectory collapses to 144 → 94 → 94, so the choice is selling into a decent score this week or selling out of two poor ones afterwards. Same club, same [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB run, harsher numbers, for Jordy Makengo (5.6m, SCF): 28% owned for 65 this round and only 134 across the three.
Fabian Bredlow (5.1m, STU) is the clearest goalkeeper error on the board: 24% of managers hold him, but his starter factor is 0.44 and the model has him on 40 projected minutes, which is why he projects 60 this round against 173 for Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) at a similar price. Act now rather than later, because his own programme ([A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG) does not improve: 60 → 61 → 30. Younes Ebnoutalib (6.2m, FRA) is the third name — 29% owned, 84 this round on a 0.61 starter factor across [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB. His Matchday 6 number is better at 128, but the round after drops back again, so there is no run here worth waiting for.
Hidden gems and differentials for Matchday 5
Four names under 10% ownership that the projections rate inside the top tier of their position:
- Adam Hlozek (9.4m, HOF) — 3% owned, 187 this round, 444 over [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04. At 19.9 points per million, the best rate of any forward projecting three figures.
- Maximilian Beier (11.9m, BVB) — 2% owned and the third-highest forward projection of the round at 214, 430 over [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. Rotation-dependent (0.63 starter factor), which is exactly why he is cheap and unowned.
- Nahuel Noll (8.5m, SCP) — 9% owned, 193 this round and 548 across [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV, with 4.3 projected saves. Fourth among all goalkeepers on the three-round table, and nine in ten managers do not hold him.
- Laurin Curda (7.4m, SCP) — 5% owned, 118 this round, 379 over [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV on a rising trajectory of 118 → 125 → 136. The cheapest three-round defensive starter worth owning.
For the full projected-points table across every position, and the round-by-round breakdown behind each programme above, see the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks and the fixture schedule. Previous round: Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4 preview. Every round we cover is collected in the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
Serhou Guirassy (19.3m, BVB). He projects 356 points, more than 100 clear of the next-best player in the game, with 0.73 expected goals at home to Werder Bremen. Michael Olise (37.7m, FCB) is the alternative on 237, and Harry Kane (36.9m, FCB) is third on 220.
Which budget players are best for Matchday 5?
Marvin Pieringer (3.0m, SCP) is the standout at 43.9 points per million — 133 this round on 73 projected minutes, with a rising programme of [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV. In goal Alexander Schwolow (6.0m, M05) gives you 173 at 29.0 points per million, and in defence Laurin Curda (7.4m, SCP) projects 379 across [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV.
Should I sell Yuito Suzuki before Matchday 5?
Yes, and this is the round to do it. Schalke 04 at home is a decent fixture and 144 points is a fair return, but his next three read [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB and the two rounds after this one fall to 94 and 94. Selling into the good fixture beats selling out of the bad ones.
Which goalkeeper should I buy for Matchday 5?
Finn Dahmen (10.3m, FCA), if you want the highest single-round projection: 203 points, driven by 5.2 projected saves rather than a clean sheet (3% chance) at home to Bayern München. Over the full three rounds Moritz Nicolas (13.7m, BMG) on 570 and Loris Karius (10.6m, S04) on 564 edge ahead of him, so buy on the three-round table if you plan to leave the position alone.
Are there any blank fixtures in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5?
No. All 18 clubs play in Matchday 5, and all 18 play in Matchday 6 and Matchday 7 as well, so every three-round total in the table above covers the same number of matches. The nine fixtures run from 9 to 11 October.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.