Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4: captain picks, best buys

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4 kicks off on Friday 18 September and runs through Sunday, and it is the last round before the international break – Matchday 5 does not arrive until 9–11 October. All 18 clubs play in Matchday 4, so nobody blanks and every squad slot is live. What that gap means in practice: the squad you assemble now sits in place for three weeks of real time, so the players worth owning are the ones whose next three Matchdays hold up, not just the ones with a friendly Friday night. Every projection below comes from the model run of 17 September.

The short version: Bayern München host Union Berlin in the standout fixture of the round and the model has the five highest-projected players in the entire game wearing their shirt – but you can only field three players from any one club, so the interesting question is which three, and what you build around them. Full numbers for every player are on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks page.

The programs: whose next three Matchdays are worth owning

Rank the league on the next three rounds rather than on Matchday 4 alone and the picture is not subtle. Bayern München project 10.46 expected goals and 1.04 expected clean sheets across [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL – more than four expected goals clear of the next-best programme in the league. Nobody else is close, and that is the single fact that shapes this round.

Behind them, Hoffenheim ([A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG) carry 6.32 xG and 0.90 expected clean sheets over the three, the best non-Bayern run in the game, and it starts with the friendliest single fixture available outside Munich. Bayer Leverkusen ([H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF) and VfB Stuttgart ([H]BVB → [A]SCP → [A]HSV) tie on 5.95 xG but get there differently: Leverkusen through a home-away-home shape that finishes against a struggling Freiburg, Stuttgart through two away days the model still likes. Borussia Dortmund ([A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU) are the interesting one – their Matchday 4 trip is genuinely hard, and then the programme opens right up.

At the other end, Union Berlin ([A]FCB → [H]ELV → [H]BVB) hold the worst three-round programme in the league at 3.43 xG, and their Matchday 4 win probability of 2.6% is the lowest number on the board. Paderborn (3.79 xG) and Hamburger SV (3.82 xG) are the other two runs to plan around rather than buy into – though as the goalkeeper section explains, a bad team is not automatically a bad place to shop in this scoring system.

The 3-round clean sheet column is a count, not a percentage: 1.04 means Bayern are expected to keep roughly one clean sheet across their next three games. Every club in the table has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals are directly comparable. Cross-check any of them against the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule and the market probabilities.

Goalkeepers for Matchday 4

Bundesliga Fantasy pays goalkeepers heavily for saves, which inverts the usual logic: the best-projected keeper in the game plays for one of the weakest teams in it. Nahuel Noll (8.43m, SCP) is the top keeper both for Matchday 4 (195 points) and across the next three (570), on 4.29 projected saves against Hoffenheim. His programme is [H]HOF → [H]STU → [A]WER – three games in which his defence is expected to be under pressure every week, which in this scoring system is the point rather than the problem. He is owned by 8% of managers.

If you would rather own a keeper whose team might actually keep a clean sheet, Finn Dahmen (10.12m, FCA) is the balanced pick: 181 for Matchday 4, then 203 and 173, for 557 over the three on a programme of [A]WER → [H]FCB → [A]ELV. The Matchday 5 home game against Bayern is the one that looks wrong on paper and right in the model – Munich take an enormous number of shots, and this scoring system pays him for facing them.

The value play is Alexander Schwolow (5.89m, M05), who projects 166 this week and 498 over the three at a price that frees up real money elsewhere – 28.1 points per million, and unlike the cheaper Stuttgart option in the sell section his projection holds up across all three rounds. His programme is [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, and he is owned by barely anybody. Moritz Nicolas (13.81m, BMG) (563 over three, [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]HOF) and Loris Karius (10.31m, S04) (555, [H]ELV → [A]SCF → [H]M05) are the other two keepers whose three-round totals hold up, and Daniel Heuer Fernandes (8.94m, HSV) at 8.94m is the same idea one tier cheaper.

Defenders: best buys and hidden gems for Matchday 4

Alphonso Davies (16.14m, FCB) is the standout defensive pick in the game and almost nobody has noticed – 1% ownership on the highest-projected defender of the round by 63 points. He projects 234 for Matchday 4 and 544 across [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL, which also makes him the best defender in the league over the three-round window. At 16.14m he is not cheap, but he is cheaper than the Bayern centre-back most managers already own and out-scores him comfortably in both columns.

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.33m, STU) is the steadiest non-Bayern option: 170, then 177, then 162, for 508 over the three on a programme of [H]BVB → [A]SCP → [A]HSV. He takes Stuttgart penalties, which is unusual enough at the position to be worth paying for, and his projection barely moves across the window – that flat trajectory is what "buy him and stop thinking about it" actually looks like.

Ozan Kabak (13.71m, HOF) (150 this week, 403 over three, [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG) is the pick if you want defensive coverage from the best non-Bayern programme in the league, and Kevin Diks (10.28m, BMG) is the penalty-taking differential at the position: 383 over three on [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]HOF, on a near-certain spot-kick share and 1% ownership. Nico Schlotterbeck (23.75m, BVB) has the best three-round total of any Dortmund defender at 395 across [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU, and his Matchday 5 home game against Werder Bremen is the one to own him for.

For the budget slot, Keita Kosugi (3.59m, FRA) is the standout: 122 points this week at 3.59m is 34.1 points per million, the best return of any defender in the game, and his programme of [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]KOE keeps him relevant for 331 over the three. Jan Gyamerah (3.07m, ELV) at 3.07m and Elias Baum (5.54m, FRA) at 5.54m are the other two cheap defenders whose minutes are secure enough to start.

One to wait on: Leopold Querfeld (10.46m, FCU) projects only 69 this week – his side are away at Bayern – and then jumps to 171 in Matchday 5 with Elversberg at home. He takes penalties and his programme is [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [H]BVB. There is no reason to own him for the Munich trip, and every reason to have him before the break ends.

Midfielders: captain candidates and differentials

Michael Olise (37.41m, FCB) is the highest-projected midfielder in the game for Matchday 4 at 354 points and the highest-projected player of any position across the next three at 845, on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL. He is the most-owned premium in the game at 25%, and for once the template is right – there is no midfield programme within 200 points of his.

Jamal Musiala (22.30m, FCB) is the differential version of the same bet: 281 for Matchday 4, 667 over the three, on the same [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL programme, at 1% ownership and fifteen million cheaper than the man above him. The catch is honest – the model has him at 65 projected minutes rather than 90, so he carries rotation risk that Olise does not. If you want a Bayern midfielder nobody else has, and you can live with a substitution on the hour, this is the biggest ownership gap on the board. Check the predicted lineups before the deadline.

Joshua Kimmich (23.71m, FCB) is the third Bayern midfield option at 204 and 504 over the three, on 90 nailed minutes. Remember the cap of three players per club: between Olise, Musiala, Kimmich and the two forwards below, you are choosing three names, not five.

Outside Munich, Brajan Gruda (12.89m, RBL) is the best mid-price midfielder over the window: 174 this week, 182 in Matchday 5, for 487 across [A]B04 → [H]FRA → [A]FCB. The Matchday 6 trip to Bayern is the weak link, and it is the round to move him on rather than a reason to avoid him now. Can Uzun (15.47m, FRA) (176, 480, [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]KOE) and Nadiem Amiri (20.22m, M05) (173, 480, [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, on near-certain penalties) are the two alternatives at a similar price, and the penalty share is the tie-breaker if you want the higher floor.

The budget midfield picks are where this round is won. Adil Aouchiche (6.91m, S04) projects 173 this week and 432 over three at 6.91m – 25.0 points per million on a programme of [H]ELV → [A]SCF → [H]M05 – and this week he out-scores several midfielders costing twice as much. Chuki (6.57m, WER) is the same idea at 6.57m (166, 427, [H]FCA → [A]BVB → [H]SCP), and Jeremiaha Maluze (3.48m, FRA) is the cheapest enabler worth a starting spot at 3.48m: 135 points is 38.7 per million, the best in the position.

Forwards: the best buys for Matchday 4

Luis Diaz (28.79m, FCB) is the single highest-projected player in the game this week at 357 points, on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL, and 796 across the three. He is owned by 8%, which is remarkable for the top score on the board.

Harry Kane (37.18m, FCB) is the premium alternative at 302 this week and 790 over three on the same programme, and he takes the penalties on a 0.93 share. Between the two the three-round totals are six points apart, so this is a question of price and of which other Bayern players you want, not of which is better.

Serhou Guirassy (19.10m, BVB) is the most interesting forward in the game right now. He projects 231 for Matchday 4 at [A]STU, which is solid rather than special – and then 347 for Matchday 5 at home to Werder Bremen, the highest single-round projection of any player in the league across the whole window, Bayern included. His programme is [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU and his three-round total of 795 is level with Diaz. If you are buying one non-Bayern forward to hold through the break, it is this one, and the reason is Matchday 5 rather than Matchday 4.

Kenan Karaman (8.29m, S04) is the value pick of the position: 213 points at 8.29m is 25.7 per million, he takes the Schalke 04 penalties, and his programme of [H]ELV → [A]SCF → [H]M05 gives him 493 over the three. Tim Lemperle (11.39m, HOF) is the same shape one tier up (205, 514, [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG, on a 0.82 penalty share), and Patrik Schick (18.81m, B04) projects 201 this week and 570 over three – the best three-round total of any forward outside the top three – on [H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF, with the caveat that the model has him at 67 minutes rather than 90.

Two more worth naming. Igor Matanovic (15.98m, SCF) projects 206 this week and 186 in Matchday 5, but only 136 in Matchday 6 when Freiburg travel to Leverkusen – a two-round pick with a clearly marked exit. And Marvin Pieringer (2.99m, SCP) at 2.99m returns 50.6 points per million, the highest figure of any expected starter in the game: 151 this week, 426 over the three on [H]HOF → [H]STU → [A]WER. He is the cheapest way to fund the top of your squad.

Captain picks for Matchday 4

The captain scores double, and the top of the board is unusually clear.

1. Luis Diaz – 357 projected, the highest score of any player in Matchday 4, on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL. Doubling him is the highest expected return available.
2. Michael Olise – 354, three points behind, with the better three-round programme (845 against 796). If you own both, captain whichever the confirmed lineups favour.
3. Harry Kane – 302, and the penalty share is the reason to prefer him if you want the higher floor rather than the higher ceiling.

The differential armband is Jamal Musiala at 281 and 1% ownership – a genuine edge if he starts, and a wasted captaincy if the hour-mark substitution the model expects turns into a benching. Serhou Guirassy at 231 is the best non-Bayern captain, and he is the name to plan around for the round after: his Matchday 5 projection of 347 is the highest single-round figure anyone in the league carries in this window, so a captain plan that runs Diaz or Olise this week and Guirassy after the break is the cleanest two-round shape available. The live solve is on the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy page.

Who to sell before Matchday 4

Younes Ebnoutalib (5.52m, FRA) is owned by 33% of managers and projects 12 minutes. The fixtures are not the problem – Eintracht Frankfurt run [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]KOE, which is a perfectly reasonable programme – the minutes are, and the model does not expect them to arrive in any of the three rounds (81 points in total across the window). Why now: Matchday 5 is three weeks away, so a non-starter you keep this week is a non-starter you are stuck looking at until October.

Nathaniel Brown (14.99m, FCB) is the same problem at nearly three times the price: 19% ownership, 17 projected minutes, 140 points across the entire three-round window. Why now: at 14.99m he is tying up serious money and, more importantly, one of your three permitted Bayern slots – the slot that Alphonso Davies would turn into 234 points this week and 544 over the three.

Fabian Bredlow (5.02m, STU) is the timing call of the round, and it is an honest one: he is good this week. 146 points at 5.02m is 29.1 per million and he is a fine Matchday 4 start. But his projection falls to 60 and 61 for Matchday 5 and Matchday 6, because Stuttgart’s first-choice goalkeeper is due back from injury on 6 October, before the break ends. So this is the rare case where you can wait a round – start him on Friday, then move him on. Just do not carry him into October by accident.

Yuito Suzuki (9.53m, SCF) is owned by 31% and projects 140, 129 and 98 across [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]B04 – a programme that decays every round and finishes at Leverkusen. Why now: at 9.53m he is out-scored this week and over the three by Adil Aouchiche at 6.91m, so the swap pays you twice. Jordy Makengo (5.05m, SCF) (22% ownership, 190 points across the whole window) is the cheaper version of the same sell.

Finally, Konstantinos Karetsas (15.92m, BVB) is unavailable for Matchday 4 and returns on 26 September, which means zero points this week and only 61 across the three-round window even after he is back. At 15.92m and 10% ownership that is expensive dead weight, and the player picks table has cheaper midfielders projecting five times as much.

More rounds, more analysis: the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub, last week’s Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3 preview, and our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4?

Luis Diaz is the top captain pick for Matchday 4 at 357 projected points, marginally ahead of Michael Olise on 354. Both play for Bayern München, who host Union Berlin with a 91% win probability and 4.04 expected goals – the best single fixture on the board. Harry Kane at 302 is the safer floor because he takes the penalties, and Serhou Guirassy at 231 is the best captain outside Munich.

Which budget players are best for Matchday 4?

Marvin Pieringer at 2.99m returns 50.6 points per million, the best figure in the game, and Jeremiaha Maluze at 3.48m returns 38.7. In defence Keita Kosugi at 3.59m projects 122 points for 34.1 per million, and Alexander Schwolow at 5.89m is the cheapest goalkeeper with a top-ten three-round total (498). Those four together fund a Bayern premium at the other end of the squad.

Should I sell Fabian Bredlow before Matchday 4?

No – start him this week, then move him on. He projects 146 points for Matchday 4, which is strong value at 5.02m, but Stuttgart’s first-choice goalkeeper is due back from injury on 6 October and his projection drops to 60 and 61 for Matchday 5 and Matchday 6. This is one of the few cases in Matchday 4 where waiting a round genuinely costs you nothing.

Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4?

Alphonso Davies at 1% ownership is the biggest gap on the board – 234 projected points makes him the highest-scoring defender of the round. Jamal Musiala is owned by 1% and projects 281, and Kenan Karaman (1% owned, 213 points, penalties) and Tim Lemperle (1% owned, 205 points) are the cheap forward differentials. All four sit on programmes that hold up through Matchday 6.

Which team has the best fixtures after Matchday 4?

Bayern München, by a distance: [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL is worth 10.46 expected goals and 1.04 expected clean sheets over three rounds, more than four expected goals clear of second place. Hoffenheim ([A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG, 6.32 xG) have the best programme outside Munich, and Borussia Dortmund ([A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU) have the biggest single-round spike in the window with 347 projected points for Serhou Guirassy in Matchday 5.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.