Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3: best buys, captains
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3 kicks off on Friday 11 September at 20:30 with Union Berlin - Schalke 04, and that whistle is the deadline for the whole round. All 18 clubs play across Friday, Saturday and Sunday, so nobody blanks and there is nothing to plan around except value. Every projection below was pulled from the model on 10 September, one day before the deadline.
Two names sit above everything else. Serhou Guirassy (18.9m, Borussia Dortmund) leads the entire game on 378 points, ahead of Harry Kane (37.6m, Bayern München) on 350. In defence the top two are team-mates: Willi Orban (16.4m, RB Leipzig) is the highest-projected defender in Bundesliga Fantasy on 173, a fraction ahead of David Raum (18.2m, RB Leipzig) on 171. Beyond the obvious two up front, this Matchday is decided in the six or seven squad slots that follow — the keeper you pick, the cheap defender who plays 88 minutes, and the sub-18m forward almost nobody owns. If you are catching up, start with the Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 2 preview.
Matchday 3 fixtures: where the points are
Three games dominate the board. Bayern München travel to newly promoted Elversberg at 83% win probability and 3.47 expected goals — the highest attacking projection of the Matchday by a distance. Borussia Dortmund host Paderborn at 77% and 2.81 expected goals, with the best clean-sheet chance in the league at 42%. RB Leipzig at home to Hamburger SV is third at 69% and 2.45 expected goals. Everything in the table below is live on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities, and the full weekend order is on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [A]Elversberg | 83% | 3.47 | 37% |
| Borussia Dortmund | [H]Paderborn | 77% | 2.81 | 42% |
| RB Leipzig | [H]Hamburger SV | 69% | 2.45 | 37% |
| Freiburg | [H]Borussia Mönchengladbach | 56% | 2.01 | 32% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | [A]Augsburg | 54% | 2.12 | 25% |
| Mainz 05 | [H]Eintracht Frankfurt | 47% | 1.87 | 24% |
| 1. FC Köln | [H]Werder Bremen | 47% | 1.80 | 25% |
| Union Berlin | [H]Schalke 04 | 42% | 1.60 | 25% |
| Hoffenheim | [H]VfB Stuttgart | 41% | 1.88 | 17% |
| VfB Stuttgart | [A]Hoffenheim | 36% | 1.76 | 15% |
| Schalke 04 | [A]Union Berlin | 32% | 1.39 | 20% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | [A]Mainz 05 | 29% | 1.43 | 15% |
| Werder Bremen | [A]1. FC Köln | 28% | 1.37 | 16% |
| Augsburg | [H]Bayer Leverkusen | 24% | 1.37 | 12% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | [A]Freiburg | 21% | 1.16 | 14% |
| Hamburger SV | [A]RB Leipzig | 13% | 0.99 | 9% |
| Paderborn | [A]Borussia Dortmund | 8% | 0.87 | 6% |
| Elversberg | [H]Bayern München | 6% | 0.99 | 3% |
The attacks to leave alone are Elversberg, Paderborn and Hamburger SV, none of which is projected to reach a single expected goal. Among the mid-table sides, Borussia Mönchengladbach (21% at Freiburg) and Augsburg (24% at home to Bayer Leverkusen) carry the two lowest win probabilities of the round.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 3: buy saves, not clean sheets
This is the part of Bundesliga Fantasy most managers get backwards. The scoring rewards save volume heavily, so the best-projected keepers are usually the busiest ones rather than the ones most likely to keep a clean sheet.
Nahuel Noll (8.2m, Paderborn) is the top-projected goalkeeper in the game on 202 points, built on 4.9 projected saves away at Borussia Dortmund with a clean-sheet probability of only 6%. Set that against Gregor Kobel (12.6m, Borussia Dortmund), who keeps goal for the club with the best clean-sheet chance in the league at 42% and still projects only 132 — 70 points fewer for 4.4m more. That single comparison is the goalkeeper strategy in this game, and you can see it across the whole pool on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks.
The value play is Fabian Bredlow (4.9m, VfB Stuttgart). He projects 150 points at Hoffenheim, which is 30.5 points per million — the best ratio of any goalkeeper in the game — and 17% of squads already have him. For the same shape at far lower ownership, Alexander Schwolow (5.9m, Mainz 05) projects 166 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt on 28.1 points per million, and he adds a 24% clean-sheet share rather than almost none.
Two more worth naming: Loris Karius (9.9m, Schalke 04) on 185 points and 3.8 projected saves in the Friday opener, and Finn Dahmen (9.9m, Augsburg) on 186 with 4.0 saves at home to Bayer Leverkusen. Dahmen has the better month behind him too — 179, 198, 175 across the next three Matchdays.
Best defenders for Matchday 3: one premium, three cheap starters
The two defenders the model backs hardest are both RB Leipzig, at home to Hamburger SV. Willi Orban (16.4m, RB Leipzig) is now the highest-projected defender in Bundesliga Fantasy on 173 points, and the case for him is his floor: a 36% clean-sheet share and 11.1 projected defensive actions. David Raum (18.2m, RB Leipzig) is just behind on 171, and his route is different — 0.22 projected assists and a 98% share of Leipzig penalties. Respect the three-per-club cap if you want both.
Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.1m, VfB Stuttgart) remains the defender to hold rather than rent. 151 points at Hoffenheim now, then 152, 132, 126 over the following three Matchdays, which is the highest decay-weighted score of any defender outside Leipzig. He also takes 90% of Stuttgart penalties — rare for a defender, and the reason his floor barely moves with the fixture.
The mid-price pick is Matthias Ginter (11.1m, Freiburg): 133 points at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, a 31% clean-sheet share, 8.2 defensive actions and a 98% penalty share. A centre-back on penalties in a 56% home game is a shape worth paying for, and only 11% of squads have him. Julian Ryerson (12.8m, Borussia Dortmund) on 150 is the alternative if you would rather buy into Dortmund’s league-best clean-sheet chance.
For the cheap slots, three very different shapes:
- Tom Rothe (5.7m, Union Berlin) — 127 points at 22.3 per million on a full 90 projected minutes in the Friday opener, owned by 2%. This is explicitly a one-Matchday rental: Union Berlin go to Bayern München next week and his line drops to 55.
- Fabio Gruber (6.7m, Mainz 05) — 119 points at 17.9 per million at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, 88 projected minutes and a 24% clean-sheet share. The cheapest projected starter in that back line, and the same fixture as Schwolow if you want to double up on one clean sheet.
- Laurin Curda (6.7m, Paderborn) — the opposite shape. Only 106 points at Dortmund, but 14.2 projected defensive actions is the highest figure of any defender in the game, and his line rises to 128, 143, 146 over the next three.
Two more the market has missed: Stefan Posch (10.3m, Mainz 05) on 128 points and 10.5 defensive actions in a 47% home game, and Keita Kosugi (3.4m, Eintracht Frankfurt), the cheapest defender in the game with a triple-figure projection at 100 points and 29.7 per million. Check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before Friday if you are buying any defender with rotation risk.
Best midfielders for Matchday 3: a 17.2m alternative to a 37.5m midfielder
The headline in midfield is that Ismael Saibari (17.2m, Bayern München) has passed Michael Olise (37.5m, Bayern München). Saibari projects 252 points against Elversberg, Olise 249 — and Saibari costs less than half as much. The catch is minutes: the model has Saibari on 52 projected minutes against Olise’s 80, so Olise is still the safer of the two. On value there is no contest: 14.7 points per million against 6.6, and Saibari holds that edge across the next six Matchdays too.
Below Bayern the value is better. Ibrahim Maza (16.4m, Bayer Leverkusen) is on 176 points at Augsburg and never drops below 166 through Matchday 6 as Leverkusen’s programme stays kind. Nadiem Amiri (20.4m, Mainz 05) projects 175 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt with a 94% penalty share, and Joshua Kimmich (23.7m, Bayern München) on 166 is the defensive-minded route into the Elversberg game.
The cheap midfield is unusually strong this week, and all three of these are projected starters:
- Ezechiel Banzuzi (4.3m, RB Leipzig) — 156 points at 36.0 per million, 85 projected minutes and a 35% clean-sheet share at home to Hamburger SV. The best mix of projection and price in midfield, owned by 8%.
- Adil Aouchiche (6.6m, Schalke 04) — 150 points at 22.8 per million, 85 minutes in Friday’s opener, and 154 again next Matchday.
- Jae-Sung Lee (9.6m, Mainz 05) — 164 points at 17.1 per million with 0.27 projected goals at home to Frankfurt, owned by 2%.
The differential the model likes most is Lukas Petkov (7.8m, Elversberg), who projects 141 points against Bayern München. That reads wrong until you see why: he takes 93% of Elversberg penalties and plays 84 projected minutes, and his line rises again to 157, 140 across the next two Matchdays once the fixtures soften. Joey Veerman (14.5m, Borussia Dortmund) at 162 points is the other one worth a look — a projected starter in a 77% home game that almost nobody owns.
Best forwards for Matchday 3: the top score in the game, at half the price
Serhou Guirassy (18.9m, Borussia Dortmund) projects 378 points at home to Paderborn on 0.94 projected goals — the highest score of any player in Bundesliga Fantasy this Matchday, 28 clear of Harry Kane at half the price, with a 50% penalty share on top. That is 20.1 points per million against Kane’s 9.3. His one weakness is the round after: 238 away at VfB Stuttgart.
Harry Kane (37.6m, Bayern München) is still the strongest hold in the game. 350 points at Elversberg, 0.85 projected goals, a 93% penalty share — and the highest Matchday 4 projection in the entire game at 308, with Bayern at home to Union Berlin next week. If you can only own one premium all month it is Kane; if you are picking one for this Matchday alone it is Guirassy.
Patrik Schick (18.7m, Bayer Leverkusen) on 244 points is the third premium, on 0.59 projected goals and an 83% penalty share at Augsburg, and Luis Diaz (28.9m, Bayern München) on 252 is the second-best route into the Elversberg fixture behind Kane.
The differential that stands out is Christopher Nkunku (17.4m, RB Leipzig). He projects 247 points at home to Hamburger SV on 0.51 projected goals and 82 minutes — the sixth-highest projection in the entire game — and he is one of the least-owned players anywhere near that projection. He costs less than half of Kane for 71% of the points.
Four more forwards under 16m with real projections:
- Igor Matanovic (15.4m, Freiburg) — 220 points at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, 84 projected minutes, 0.41 projected goals, owned by 12%.
- Antonio Nusa (15.2m, RB Leipzig) — 214 points at home to Hamburger SV with a 34% clean-sheet share, another route into the third-best fixture of the round if you would rather not spend up on Nkunku.
- Phillip Tietz (11.0m, Mainz 05) — 212 points at 19.2 per million at home to Frankfurt, then 190, 189 over the next two, so not a one-week punt.
- Moussa Sylla (8.1m, Schalke 04) — 203 points at 25.2 per million on a full 90 projected minutes in Friday’s opener, owned by 2%, and 221 next week.
At the very cheap end, Marin Ljubicic (2.8m, Union Berlin) projects 157 points — 56.5 points per million, the best ratio of any player in the game with a triple-figure projection, and the enabler that pays for a premium elsewhere. One step up, Ragnar Ache (12.2m, 1. FC Köln) on 210 points is owned by only 2% despite out-projecting several forwards that cost more. Compare every one of them side by side on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks.
Captain picks for Matchday 3
The captain scores double in Bundesliga Fantasy, so the armband is worth as much as a transfer this week. Captain Serhou Guirassy (18.9m, Borussia Dortmund). He is the highest projection on the board at 378 points, Dortmund carry the best clean-sheet chance and the second-highest expected goals of the round at home to Paderborn, and doubling him doubles his 28-point gap over Kane too. The win probabilities behind all of this are on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities.
| Player | Price | Fixture | Matchday 3 xP | Projected goals | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy | 18.9m | [H]Paderborn | 378 | 0.94 | 18% |
| Harry Kane | 37.6m | [A]Elversberg | 350 | 0.85 | 19% |
| Luis Diaz | 28.9m | [A]Elversberg | 252 | 0.48 | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari | 17.2m | [A]Elversberg | 252 | 0.54 | 9% |
| Michael Olise | 37.5m | [A]Elversberg | 249 | 0.45 | 24% |
| Christopher Nkunku | 17.4m | [H]Hamburger SV | 247 | 0.51 | 0% |
Harry Kane (37.6m, Bayern München) is the number two and the safer of the pair: Bayern at Elversberg is the biggest mismatch of the round at 83% win probability, and Kane takes 93% of their penalties. The number three is Luis Diaz (28.9m, Bayern München) on 252 points in the same game, and he is the pick if you already own Kane and want to spread the risk. Do not captain Ismael Saibari (17.2m, Bayern München) this week — he is on 52 projected minutes, which is a real ceiling on the armband. Looking further ahead, Kane is the better armband to plan around: he projects 308 in Matchday 4 against Guirassy’s 238.
Who to sell before Matchday 3
Five transfers every Matchday, none carried over and no points hit for using them, so there is no reason to hold a player the model has turned against.
- Konstantinos Karetsas (15.9m, Borussia Dortmund) — owned by 19% and unavailable, with a return date of 19 September. He has no projection for this Matchday at all, and he will not have one for Matchday 4 either.
- Nathaniel Brown (15.3m, Bayern München) — 24% ownership for 84 points. At 15.3m he is priced as a premium defender and the model has him on 42 projected minutes, and it does not improve next week.
- Dayot Upamecano (17.6m, Bayern München) — 12% owned, 83 points on 52 projected minutes. The rotation risk in the Bayern back line is real, and several cheaper defenders project more.
- Deniz Undav (21.4m, VfB Stuttgart) — 15% owned and 149 points for 21.4m. Guirassy, Schick and Nkunku all project more for less.
One more to think about rather than act on: Yuito Suzuki (9.1m, Freiburg) is in 25% of squads on 171 points. He is fine this week, but his line falls to 132, 148 over the next two, so the template is about to move off him. The optimal Bundesliga Fantasy teams page will show you the exact 15 the model would field for this Matchday.
More rounds, more data: our Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub carries every Matchday preview for this game, and the TheFantasyTool guides explain how the projections are built.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?
Serhou Guirassy (18.9m, Borussia Dortmund) is the captain pick for Matchday 3 on 378 projected points, the highest of any player in the game. Dortmund host Paderborn with a 77% win probability and the best clean-sheet chance of the round at 42%, and Guirassy takes 50% of their penalties. Harry Kane (37.6m, Bayern München) on 350 is the alternative if you prefer the Bayern fixture at Elversberg.
Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?
Tom Rothe (5.7m, Union Berlin) at 127 points and 22.3 points per million is the best cheap defender for Matchday 3, on a full 90 projected minutes in the Friday opener. Fabio Gruber (6.7m, Mainz 05) at 119 points and Laurin Curda (6.7m, Paderborn) at 106 points are the other two, and Keita Kosugi (3.4m, Eintracht Frankfurt) is the cheapest defender in the game with a triple-figure projection.
Should I sell Konstantinos Karetsas before Matchday 3?
Yes. Karetsas is unavailable with a return date of 19 September, so he has no projection for Matchday 3 and 19% of squads still hold him. With five free transfers every Matchday and no points hit, there is no cost to replacing him.
Best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?
Christopher Nkunku (17.4m, RB Leipzig) is the standout differential at 247 points, the sixth-highest projection in the game, with ownership under 1%. Moussa Sylla (8.1m, Schalke 04) (203 points, 2% owned), Ragnar Ache (12.2m, 1. FC Köln) (210 points, 2% owned) and Alexander Schwolow (5.9m, Mainz 05) (166 points, 1% owned) are the others the model rates far above their ownership.
Which goalkeeper should I pick for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?
Nahuel Noll (8.2m, Paderborn) on 202 points is the top-projected keeper for Matchday 3, driven by 4.9 projected saves away at Dortmund rather than by a clean sheet. If you would rather spend the money elsewhere, Fabian Bredlow (4.9m, VfB Stuttgart) at 150 points and 30.5 points per million is the best value ratio of any keeper in the game.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.