Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3: best buys, captains

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3 starts on Friday 11 September at 20:30 with Union Berlin - Schalke 04, and that kick-off is your deadline. Everything else runs across Saturday and Sunday, which means one thing above all: the two obvious captains are not in action until late.

The names at the top of the projections this Matchday are not a secret. Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy are the two biggest scores in the model, and most managers already have at least one of them. That is not where a Matchday is won. It is won in the six or seven squad slots after the obvious picks - the goalkeeper you choose, the cheap defender who plays 85 minutes, and the sub-10m forward with a penalty share that nobody owns. This preview is mostly about those.

Matchday 3 fixtures: where the points are

Two fixtures dominate. Bayern Munchen travel to newly promoted Elversberg with an 80% win probability and 3.23 expected goals - the highest attacking projection of the Matchday by a distance. Borussia Dortmund host Paderborn at 77% with 2.83 expected goals and the best clean sheet chance in the league at 41%. If you want a defensive stack this week, Dortmund is the one the model backs.

The teams to leave alone in attack are Elversberg, Paderborn and Hamburger SV, who travel to Leipzig at 14%. Borussia Monchengladbach (22% at Freiburg) and Augsburg (22% at home to Leverkusen) are the two mid-table sides whose Matchday 3 fixture the model likes least. You can check every number yourself on the Bundesliga Fantasy market probabilities page, and the full weekend order on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule.

Goalkeepers for Matchday 3: buy saves, not clean sheets

This is the part of Bundesliga Fantasy that most managers get backwards. Save volume is worth far more than a clean sheet in this scoring system, so the best-projected goalkeepers this Matchday are the ones who will be under siege - not the ones behind the best defences.

Nahuel Noll (8.0m, Paderborn) is the top-projected keeper in the game at 203 xP for Matchday 3, on 4.9 projected saves, despite a clean sheet probability of just 6% away at Dortmund. That is not a contradiction, it is the scoring system. Compare him with Gregor Kobel (12.6m, Borussia Dortmund), who has the best clean sheet chance in the league at 41% and projects 133 xP - 70 points fewer, for 4.6m more.

The value play is Fabian Bredlow (4.8m, VfB Stuttgart). He projects 149 xP at Hoffenheim, which is 30.8 points per million - the best ratio of any goalkeeper in the game - and he adds 6.3 projected defensive actions, easily the most of any keeper. At 15% ownership he is already popular, and rightly so: he frees up roughly 5m for your forward line.

Two more worth naming: Loris Karius (9.5m, Schalke 04) at 190 xP and 4.0 projected saves in the Friday opener, and Finn Dahmen (9.6m, Augsburg) at 188 xP with 4.1 saves at home to Leverkusen. Dahmen has the better programme across the next month - he projects 173, 198 and 174 over the following three Matchdays.

Defenders: one premium worth the money, and two cheap starters

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (17.2m, VfB Stuttgart) is the defender to own. He projects 156 xP at Hoffenheim, but the real case is the consistency behind it: 156, 151, 164, 159 over the next four Matchdays, for a decay-weighted score of 560 - the highest of any defender in the game. He takes 80% of Stuttgart's penalties and racks up 6.5 defensive actions a game, so his floor barely moves with the fixture.

Matthias Ginter (11.0m, Freiburg) is the smarter mid-price buy. 130 xP at home to Monchengladbach, a 32% clean sheet chance, 8.1 projected defensive actions and - the detail most managers miss - a 98% penalty share. A centre-back on penalties in a 55% home game is a rare shape, and only 11% of squads have him.

Willi Orban (16.3m, RB Leipzig) at 151 xP with a 33% clean sheet chance and 8.3 defensive actions is the alternative if you would rather stack the Leipzig defence against Hamburg. Be aware his programme turns sharply: he drops to 103 next Matchday and 75 by Matchday 6, when Leipzig travel to Bayern.

For the budget slots, two very different picks:

• Tom Rothe (5.7m, Union Berlin) - 135 xP, 23.6 points per million, 86 projected minutes, 6.1 defensive actions, and owned by just 2%. This is explicitly a one-Matchday buy: Union travel to Bayern next week and his projection collapses to 67. Buy him for Friday and move him on afterwards - you get five transfers every Matchday and none of them carry over, so there is no cost to rotating a cheap defender.
• Laurin Curda (6.3m, Paderborn) - the opposite shape. Only 108 xP this Matchday at Dortmund, but 147, 135 and 135 across the three after, for a weighted score of 471. He is projected for 13.6 defensive actions per game, the highest figure of any defender in the game, on 84 minutes. If you want a cheap defender you can leave alone for a month, it is him.

One to be careful with: Ramy Bensebaini (16.9m, Borussia Dortmund) shows 161 xP, the highest raw defender score of the Matchday, but on only 54 projected minutes and a 64% start likelihood. The projection already accounts for that risk; the point is that his upside is concentrated in a game he may not finish. Check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before the Friday deadline if you are considering him.

Midfielders: Olise, then a big gap

Michael Olise (37.6m, Bayern Munchen) at 225 xP is the highest-projected midfielder in the game and the most-owned outfielder at 24%. On 0.39 projected goals and 0.32 projected assists at Elversberg he is doing exactly what a 37.6m midfielder should. He is also the only midfielder whose projection stays above 200 in each of the next four Matchdays.

Below him the value is much better. Ibrahim Maza (16.1m, Bayer Leverkusen) projects 177 xP on 85 minutes at Augsburg, with 0.29 projected goals - the best non-Bayern midfielder on the board, and he stays between 143 and 177 through Matchday 6 as Leverkusen's programme holds up. Malik Tillman (11.8m, Bayer Leverkusen) is the same fixture at two-thirds the price: 153 xP now, 156 next Matchday, and owned by 3%.

The differential the model likes most is Lukas Petkov (7.0m, Elversberg). He projects 139 xP against Bayern, which sounds wrong until you look at why: he takes 93% of Elversberg's penalties, plays 84 minutes and produces 4.0 defensive actions a game. More importantly his trajectory rises - 139, 156, 141, 164 - for a weighted score of 528 and 75 weighted points per million, the best of any midfielder in Bundesliga Fantasy. Elversberg's fixture list softens immediately after this week.

Cheaper still, and all nailed starters:

• Adil Aouchiche (6.5m, Schalke 04) - 151 xP, 23 points per million, 85 projected minutes in the Friday opener, and 149 again next Matchday at home to Elversberg.
• Isak Bergmann Johannesson (4.7m, 1. FC Koln) - 127 xP, 27 points per million, 85 minutes, and a 25% clean sheet chance at home to Werder. At 14% ownership he is the most sensible cheap midfielder in the game.
• Dejan Ljubicic (2.8m, Schalke 04) - 113 xP at 2.8m is 40.6 points per million, the highest of any starting midfielder. He plays 85 minutes. If you need to free up 10m for a premium forward, this is the enabler.

Forwards: the two captains, then a genuine bargain

Harry Kane (37.9m, Bayern Munchen) projects 305 xP, the highest score of any player in Bundesliga Fantasy this Matchday. 0.75 projected goals against Elversberg, a 78% penalty share, and a weighted score of 1,012 across the next six Matchdays that no other player comes close to.

Serhou Guirassy (18.6m, Borussia Dortmund) projects 290 xP at home to Paderborn on 0.68 projected goals - 15 points fewer than Kane for 19.3m less. That is 16 points per million against Kane's 8.0. If your budget is tight, Guirassy is the better version of the same fixture profile this week. Note his programme dips next Matchday: 174 away at Stuttgart.

Patrik Schick (18.5m, Bayer Leverkusen) at 252 xP is the third premium. 84 projected minutes, 0.60 projected goals, and a 93% penalty share at Augsburg. Across the next four Matchdays he posts the steadiest premium line of the three: 252, 223, 189, 210.

The differential that stands out is Ragnar Ache (12.2m, 1. FC Koln). 224 xP at home to Werder Bremen, 0.48 projected goals, a 61% penalty share - and owned by 2% of squads. That is the fifth-best forward projection in the game at a third of Kane's price, and almost nobody has him.

Two more sub-10m forwards with real projections:

• Moussa Sylla (8.0m, Schalke 04) - 199 xP, 84 minutes, 0.38 projected goals and a 66% penalty share, at 1% ownership. He also projects 212 next Matchday, so he is not a one-week punt.
• Marin Ljubicic (2.7m, Union Berlin) - 161 xP at 2.7m is 58.5 points per million, comfortably the best value in the entire game. 76 projected minutes at home to Schalke. Like Rothe, this is a Matchday 3 buy specifically: Union go to Bayern next week and he falls to 94.

Marco Grull (7.0m, Werder Bremen) at 154 xP with a 36% penalty share rounds out the cheap options. Compare all of them side by side on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks page.

Captain picks for Matchday 3

Captain Harry Kane. He is the highest projection on the board at 305 xP, he is on penalties, and Bayern's 3.23 expected goals against Elversberg is the largest attacking edge of the Matchday. There is no cleverer answer this week.

The alternatives, in order:

Guirassy is the differential armband - he is owned by 15% against Kane's 20%, and the gap between them is only 15 projected points. If you own both, the safer captain is still Kane, because his penalty share adds a spike Guirassy does not have against Paderborn.

Worth planning one Matchday ahead: Kane stays top next week too (292 xP at home to Union Berlin), while Guirassy falls to 174 at Stuttgart. If you are choosing which premium to hold, that is the tiebreaker.

Sell and avoid before the Matchday 3 deadline

Nathaniel Brown (15.4m, Bayern Munchen) is the clearest sell in the game. He is the second-most-owned outfielder at 26%, and he projects 78 xP - five points per million, the worst ratio of any premium-priced player in Bundesliga Fantasy. A Bayern defender at 15.4m is not paying for itself; the same money buys Ginter plus a cheap starter.

Said El Mala (12.1m, 1. FC Koln) at 71 xP is the same problem in a mid-price shell, and 14% of squads still hold him. If you want Koln exposure this Matchday, Ache at 12.2m projects three times the points for effectively the same outlay.

Konstantinos Karetsas (15.9m, Borussia Dortmund) looks fine at 139 xP, but he is projected for only 52 minutes with a 68% start likelihood, and his next Matchday collapses to 96. At 22% ownership he is a template hold that no longer earns the price.

Jordy Makengo (4.3m, Freiburg) is a cheap defender whose programme is falling away - 74, 51, 57, 35 across the next four Matchdays. Curda at 6.3m does the same job with a rising line instead.

One to keep this week and sell next: Yuito Suzuki (8.5m, Freiburg) projects 158 xP at home to Monchengladbach, his best fixture of the month, then drops to 109. Hold him for Matchday 3, then move the money.

Best value picks by points per million

Bundesliga Fantasy is a weekly game - five transfers, none carried over - so the ratio that matters most is simply points per million for the Matchday in front of you.

Remember the three-per-club cap when you build around Schalke or Union - the model likes several players from both this Matchday, but you can only take three from each. If you want the exact budget-optimal eleven for Matchday 3, our solver builds it live on the optimal teams for Bundesliga Fantasy page.

Matchday 3 in one line

Captain Kane, take Guirassy or Schick as the second premium, and spend the savings where nobody else is: Ache at 12.2m, Sylla at 8.0m, Petkov at 7.0m and a save-heavy goalkeeper instead of a clean-sheet one. If you missed last week, our Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 2 preview covers the picks that carried over, and every Matchday we publish lands in the Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub. More background reading sits in our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?

Captain Harry Kane. He is the highest-projected player of Matchday 3 at 305 xP, he takes 78% of Bayern's penalties, and Bayern's trip to Elversberg carries the largest attacking projection of the weekend at 3.23 expected goals. Serhou Guirassy at 290 xP is the differential alternative at less than half the price.

Which budget defenders are best for Matchday 3?

Tom Rothe at 5.7m for one Matchday, and Laurin Curda at 6.3m if you want to hold. Rothe projects 135 xP with 86 minutes at home to Schalke but falls to 67 next Matchday when Union visit Bayern, so buy him for this week only. Curda projects 108 now but 147, 135 and 135 across the following three, on a league-leading 13.6 defensive actions per game.

Should I sell Nathaniel Brown before Matchday 3?

Yes. Brown projects just 78 xP for Matchday 3, which is five points per million and the weakest return of any premium-priced player in the game, yet he sits in 26% of squads. Selling him funds Matthias Ginter at 11.0m plus a cheap starting midfielder.

Best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 3?

Ragnar Ache at 12.2m, owned by 2%, is the standout - 224 xP at home to Werder Bremen with a 61% penalty share, the fifth-best forward projection of the Matchday. Moussa Sylla at 8.0m (1% owned, 199 xP) and Lukas Petkov at 7.0m (8% owned, 139 xP and a rising line) are the other two the model backs.

Which goalkeeper should I pick for Matchday 3?

Nahuel Noll at 8.0m if you want the highest projection, Fabian Bredlow at 4.8m if you want the best value. Bundesliga Fantasy rewards save volume far more than clean sheets, which is why Noll projects 203 xP behind Paderborn's defence at Dortmund while Gregor Kobel, with the best clean sheet chance in the league at 41%, projects only 133.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool