Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10: captains and best buys
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials
Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10 comes straight after the international break, and the round is built around two home sides: Bayern München host 1. FC Köln with a 89% win probability and 3.71 expected goals, and Bayer Leverkusen host Paderborn at 77%. Both clubs dip in Matchday 11 ([A]HSV for Bayern, [A]BVB for Leverkusen) and come back in Matchday 12. Werder Bremen go the other way, with two home games in a row. So the useful question for this week's transfers is not only who scores in Matchday 10. It is which of them you still want to own when the round after it goes the other way.
All numbers below are our model's projected fantasy points (xP), pulled on 7 November. Line-ups will move over the break, so check the Bundesliga Fantasy predicted lineups before the deadline. The full ranking of every player is on the Bundesliga Fantasy player picks page.
Matchday 10 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Bayern München's [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP is the best three-round run in the game by a distance: 9.54 expected goals and 1.37 expected clean sheets. The Hamburg away game is the one to plan around, not to avoid, because the two home fixtures either side of it are the best in the league. Bayer Leverkusen are second on [H]SCP → [A]BVB → [H]BMG with 7.12 expected goals. The Dortmund away trip will cost you points in Matchday 11, but Paderborn and Borussia Mönchengladbach at home make up for it.
Borussia Dortmund have the second-best defensive program ([A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, 1.09 expected clean sheets), and it is spread evenly across the three rounds rather than front-loaded. Werder Bremen ([H]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]FRA) and Mainz 05 ([A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL) are the mid-table runs worth targeting. Both keep their best numbers for Matchday 11, which is exactly when Bayern and Leverkusen dip. At the other end, Union Berlin (2.72), Schalke 04 (2.92) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (2.96) have the three weakest attacking programs. All 18 clubs play once in each of the three rounds, so the totals compare like for like.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [H]KOE | 89% | 3.71 | 49% | [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP | 9.54 | 1.37 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | [H]SCP | 77% | 2.87 | 41% | [H]SCP → [A]BVB → [H]BMG | 7.12 | 1.02 |
| VfB Stuttgart | [A]S04 | 53% | 2.04 | 26% | [A]S04 → [H]FRA → [A]ELV | 6.42 | 0.81 |
| Borussia Dortmund | [A]BMG | 58% | 2.14 | 30% | [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04 | 6.23 | 1.09 |
| Werder Bremen | [H]HSV | 55% | 2.02 | 30% | [H]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]FRA | 5.42 | 0.90 |
| Mainz 05 | [A]FCA | 40% | 1.76 | 19% | [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL | 5.33 | 0.89 |
| RB Leipzig | [A]FCU | 57% | 2.18 | 28% | [A]FCU → [A]SCF → [H]M05 | 5.15 | 0.78 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | [H]HOF | 41% | 1.87 | 17% | [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]WER | 5.04 | 0.58 |
| Hoffenheim | [A]FRA | 36% | 1.77 | 15% | [A]FRA → [H]FCA → [A]SCF | 4.92 | 0.65 |
| Freiburg | [A]ELV | 48% | 1.88 | 24% | [A]ELV → [H]RBL → [H]HOF | 4.89 | 0.80 |
Sorted by 3-round expected goals. Clean sheet totals are expected clean sheets over three games, not percentages. The full calendar is on the Bundesliga Fantasy schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind every fixture are on the market probabilities page.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 10
The model's top keepers this round are the busy ones, not the ones behind the best defences. Nahuel Noll (9.3m, SCP) is the standout on [A]B04 → [H]S04 → [A]FCB: 204 → 162 → 216 over three rounds, 581 in total, and 21.8 points per million in Matchday 10, the best value of any keeper. Two of those three games are against the strongest attacks in the league, and that is exactly the kind of program that piles up points for a keeper. 13% of managers already own him.
Loris Karius (11.0m, S04) is the hold option on [H]STU → [A]SCP → [H]BVB: 194 → 185 → 202, and the flattest program of the top keepers. On the six-round weighted score he leads every goalkeeper (701). Daniel Batz (10.7m, BMG) has the single highest keeper projection of the round at 210 on [H]BVB → [A]WER → [A]B04 (210 → 193 → 178). At 1% ownership he is the differential. The cheaper route is Robin Zentner (7.7m, M05) on [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL (153 → 120 → 141), 414 over three rounds.
Best defenders for Matchday 10
Nathaniel Brown (14.9m, FCB) is the top defender of the round at 188, and his program is Bayern's: [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP, 188 → 116 → 175, 479 over three. Bayern München carry a 49% clean sheet chance against 1. FC Köln, the highest of any defence this week. Only 11% of managers own him.
This is the one position where the round and the longer view disagree. Brown wins Matchday 10 and the three-round total, but Nico Schlotterbeck (24.1m, BVB) on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04 (153 → 137 → 166) has the best six-round weighted score of any defender (521 to Brown's 516), because Dortmund never drop as far as Bayern do in their off weeks. If you are buying one premium defender and keeping him, buy Schlotterbeck. If you are buying for Matchday 10 and moving on, buy Brown.
Matthias Ginter (11.9m, SCF) is the steadiest mid-price option on [A]ELV → [H]RBL → [H]HOF: 139 → 127 → 126, a flat program you can hold without thinking about it. Anthony Caci (12.3m, M05) on [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL peaks a round later (124 → 154 → 103), which makes him a good fit next to Bayern assets that drop in Matchday 11. Olivier Deman (9.7m, WER) is the differential: 1% owned, 124 → 144 → 99 on [H]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]FRA, with Werder's two home games first.
Budget picks: Luca Sirch (2.7m, ELV) returns 29.4 points per million in Matchday 10, the best value of any defender. His program, [H]SCF → [A]KOE → [H]STU (80 → 66 → 65), is not a good one, so he is a squad filler that funds premiums rather than a points source. Elias Baum (5.4m, FRA) is the better cheap defender to actually start: 101 → 88 → 102 on [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]WER, 291 over three. Koki Machida (4.1m, HOF) on [A]FRA → [H]FCA → [A]SCF (75 → 86 → 75) is the alternative.
| Player | Team | Price | Matchday 10 xP | Next 3 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Brown | FCB | 14.9m | 188 | 188 → 116 → 175 | 479 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | BVB | 24.1m | 153 | 153 → 137 → 166 | 456 |
| Matthias Ginter | SCF | 11.9m | 139 | 139 → 127 → 126 | 392 |
| Anthony Caci | M05 | 12.3m | 124 | 124 → 154 → 103 | 381 |
| Olivier Deman | WER | 9.7m | 124 | 124 → 144 → 99 | 368 |
| Elias Baum | FRA | 5.4m | 101 | 101 → 88 → 102 | 291 |
| Luca Sirch | ELV | 2.7m | 80 | 80 → 66 → 65 | 210 |
Best midfielders for Matchday 10
Michael Olise (39.5m, FCB) (358 → 206 → 338 on [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP) is already in 37% of squads, so owning him keeps you level rather than putting you ahead. The cheaper way into the same attack is Lennart Karl (16.3m, FCB): 208 → 122 → 195, 525 over three, at 3% ownership. He is the second-best midfielder of the round on less than half of Olise's price. Like every Bayern asset he drops in Matchday 11, but at 3% ownership his good weeks are worth more to your rank.
Felix Nmecha (13.2m, BVB) on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04 (167 → 137 → 166, 470) is the most even program among the premium-adjacent midfielders. Nadiem Amiri (19.2m, M05) is the one who peaks when Bayern do not: 167 → 192 → 140 on [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL, and the sixth-highest projection of any player in Matchday 11. Chuki (7.2m, WER) is the value differential: 143 → 161 → 114 on [H]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]FRA, 19.8 points per million in Matchday 10, owned by 2%.
One to plan for rather than buy now: Said El Mala (12.4m, KOE) projects only 108 away at Bayern in Matchday 10, then 186 at home to Elversberg in Matchday 11 ([A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]FCA). He is a buy for Matchday 11, not for this round. Budget: Tim Skarke (4.0m, FCU) on [H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]HSV (101 → 80 → 80) gives 25.3 points per million in Matchday 10, but the model only has him at 60 minutes, so treat him as a filler. Ezechiel Banzuzi (6.5m, RBL) (125 → 100 → 108 on [A]FCU → [A]SCF → [H]M05) is the steadier cheap starter and already owned by 31%.
| Player | Team | Price | Matchday 10 xP | Next 3 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | FCB | 39.5m | 358 | 358 → 206 → 338 | 902 |
| Lennart Karl | FCB | 16.3m | 208 | 208 → 122 → 195 | 525 |
| Nadiem Amiri | M05 | 19.2m | 167 | 167 → 192 → 140 | 499 |
| Felix Nmecha | BVB | 13.2m | 167 | 167 → 137 → 166 | 470 |
| Chuki | WER | 7.2m | 143 | 143 → 161 → 114 | 418 |
| Said El Mala | KOE | 12.4m | 108 | 108 → 186 → 140 | 434 |
| Tim Skarke | FCU | 4.0m | 101 | 101 → 80 → 80 | 261 |
Best forwards for Matchday 10
Harry Kane (36.6m, FCB) (421 → 249 → 394, 1063 over three on [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP) and Patrik Schick (19.6m, B04) (321 → 168 → 301 on [H]SCP → [A]BVB → [H]BMG) are the two highest-scoring forwards in the game. Schick is the better value at 16.4 points per million, and his 0.84 expected goals at home to Paderborn is the second-highest goal projection of the round behind Kane's 1.02. Both lose 40-50% of their projection in Matchday 11, which is the main argument for pairing one of them with a Werder forward.
Niclas Füllkrug (15.0m, WER) (214 → 218 → 152) and Marco Grüll (10.2m, WER) (194 → 217 → 144) share Werder's [H]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]FRA. They are the two highest-projected players of Matchday 11 after Kane, which is exactly when Bayern and Leverkusen dip. Grüll does it for 4.8m less and at lower ownership (24% to Füllkrug's 36%).
Fabio Silva (9.5m, BVB) is the value differential: 191 → 143 → 178 on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, 20.1 points per million, 5% owned. Deniz Undav (19.3m, STU) is the only top forward whose numbers climb: 178 → 180 → 187 → 232 from Matchday 10 to 13 on [A]S04 → [H]FRA → [A]ELV. The model has him at 59 minutes in Matchday 10, which is the risk, but he is the forward to own for the run after the break. Cheap: Ransford Königsdörffer (6.8m, M05) (144 → 165 → 105 on [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL) out-projects several forwards twice his price, and David Mokwa (4.3m, ELV) gives 27.3 points per million in Matchday 10 as a filler on [H]SCF → [A]KOE → [H]STU.
| Player | Team | Price | Matchday 10 xP | Next 3 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | FCB | 36.6m | 421 | 421 → 249 → 394 | 1063 |
| Patrik Schick | B04 | 19.6m | 321 | 321 → 168 → 301 | 790 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | WER | 15.0m | 214 | 214 → 218 → 152 | 585 |
| Marco Grüll | WER | 10.2m | 194 | 194 → 217 → 144 | 555 |
| Fabio Silva | BVB | 9.5m | 191 | 191 → 143 → 178 | 513 |
| Deniz Undav | STU | 19.3m | 178 | 178 → 180 → 187 | 545 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer | M05 | 6.8m | 144 | 144 → 165 → 105 | 415 |
| David Mokwa | ELV | 4.3m | 116 | 116 → 82 → 93 | 292 |
Want the best squad these numbers allow? The Bundesliga Fantasy optimal teams page solves it live for Matchday 10.
Matchday 10 captain picks
Harry Kane (36.6m, FCB) is the captain, on [H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP. His 421 is the highest projection of the round and doubles to 842 with the armband. Bayern München host 1. FC Köln with 3.71 expected goals, and Kane alone carries 1.02 of them. The alternatives are Michael Olise at 358 and Patrik Schick at 321 against Paderborn. Schick is the move if you want a captain that most of your rivals do not have.
Looking ahead, Kane still leads Matchday 11 at 249, but Füllkrug (218) and Grüll (217) are close behind at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. In Matchday 12 Kane is back on top at 394 against Paderborn. Our guide on how to pick a fantasy captain covers the reasoning in more depth.
Who to sell before Matchday 10
Younes Ebnoutalib (7.0m, FRA) is the clearest sell. He is in 38% of squads and projects 61 → 56 → 63 over the next three rounds, because the model has him starting only around one game in eight. Eintracht Frankfurt's [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]WER is a decent run and nothing in it changes his role, so the slot is better used this week on Ransford Königsdörffer or Fabio Silva. Waiting a round buys nothing.
Phillip Tietz (13.3m, M05) (16% owned) is the same story at a much higher price: 57 → 80 → 63 from a bench role, while his clubmate Ransford Königsdörffer projects 144 for about half the money. Mainz's [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]RBL is a good program. The reason to sell now is that the money stuck in Tietz is exactly what funds a Bayern or Werder forward before both of their good rounds.
Jordy Makengo (6.9m, SCF) is the most-owned player in the game at 43%, and he is a nailed starter, so this is not about minutes. His ceiling is the problem: 66 → 67 → 67, flat at around 65. Freiburg's [A]ELV → [H]RBL → [H]HOF is fine, and Matthias Ginter projects 139 from the same back line, but Makengo himself does not turn it into points. Elias Baum at 5.4m projects 101. Antonio Nusa (16.9m, RBL) (20% owned) projects 37 → 61 → 73 on [A]FCU → [A]SCF → [H]M05. He is climbing, but that is too slowly for the price, and the money is better spent on Matchday 10's premium options.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10?
Harry Kane. He projects 421 points at home to 1. FC Köln, the highest of any player this round, ahead of Michael Olise (358) and Patrik Schick (321). Schick is the differential captain.
Which budget defenders are best for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10?
Elias Baum (5.4m, Eintracht Frankfurt) projects 101 and 291 over three rounds. Luca Sirch (2.7m) has the best points per million of any defender at 29.4, and Koki Machida (4.1m) is the alternative.
Who are the best differentials for Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 10?
Lennart Karl (3% owned, 208 projected), Olivier Deman (1%, 124), Chuki (2%, 143) and Daniel Batz (1%, 210, the top keeper of the round).
Should I sell Younes Ebnoutalib before Matchday 10?
Yes. He projects 61 points in Matchday 10 and 180 over three rounds because the model sees him mostly as a substitute, and 38% of managers still own him. Ransford Königsdörffer or Fabio Silva are better uses of the slot.
Which teams have the best fixtures in Bundesliga Fantasy from Matchday 10?
Bayern München ([H]KOE → [A]HSV → [H]SCP, 9.54 expected goals over three rounds), then Bayer Leverkusen (7.12) and VfB Stuttgart (6.42). For defence, Bayern (1.37 expected clean sheets) and Borussia Dortmund (1.09) lead. More analysis is in our Bundesliga Fantasy preview hub, and last round's preview is Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 9: captain picks, best buys.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.