Bundes Manager Runde 8: captain picks and best buys

Bundes Manager Runde 8 preview: Kane's Klassiker, best buys and hidden gems

Bundes Manager Runde 8 opens on Friday 30 October and runs to Sunday 1 November: all nine Bundesliga fixtures, all 18 clubs, no blanks. The headline is Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund. That fixture makes Harry Kane the obvious captain. It also explains why Dortmund's players project so low this round, even though their best run of the autumn starts seven days later.

So most of the decisions in Runde 8 are not really about Runde 8. The question is who to bring in before Bayern's and Leverkusen's good runs, which Köln players to sell before their run collapses, and which Dortmund players to keep through one bad week. Every pick below comes with its next three fixtures, and every number is from our model's projections as of today. The full list is on the Bundes Manager player picks page.

Runde 8 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Bayern have the best three-round program in the game by a distance: [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE adds up to 8.55 expected goals and 0.93 expected clean sheets. Bayern create 3.44 xG per league game this season, the most in the Bundesliga, and allow only 0.93. The Klassiker is the hardest of the three on paper, and Bayern still carry a 72% win probability in it.

Leverkusen are second at 6.66 expected goals over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP, with no tough fixture in the window, which makes them the club to build around after Bayern. Freiburg ([A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV) and Leipzig ([A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU) are the clean-sheet programs: 0.90 and 0.89 expected clean sheets, second and third behind Bayern. Freiburg concede 0.79 xG per game, the fewest in the league.

Dortmund are the program to plan around rather than avoid. Their Runde 8 trip to Munich is the worst fixture of the round (13% win probability, 5% clean sheet chance). But [H]ELV → [A]BMG follows, and that is the fourth-best attacking run over the window. At the other end, Elversberg (3.37), Schalke (3.60), Union Berlin (3.75), Köln and Paderborn (3.77 each) have the weakest three-round attacking totals.

Frankfurt's program is front-loaded: [H]HSV is their best fixture (56% win probability), and the run fades after it. Mainz are the opposite warning. [A]ELV is a decent Runde 8, but Bayern come to Mainz in Runde 9. You can check every club's run on the Bundes Manager schedule, and the odds behind these numbers on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Bundes Manager Runde 8

Jonas Urbig (5.13m, FCB) is the best goalkeeper over the window. He projects 78k → 64k → 81k over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 223k in total and the highest three-round figure of any keeper, and only 0.3% of managers own him. Bayern's 28% clean sheet chance against Dortmund is also the highest in the round.

Mark Flekken (4.94m, B04) is the alternative, and the one to pick if you want to hold a keeper well past Runde 10. He projects 64k → 68k → 81k over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP (213k), then 47k at Dortmund and 75k and 74k after that. Noah Atubolu (4.38m, FRA) out-scores Flekken this round (68k against 64k) through [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF, but Flekken is 26k ahead over the three rounds. If you are buying one keeper to keep, buy Flekken.

For a cheap one-round option, Alexander Schwolow (3.47m, M05) projects 63k at Elversberg, the best points per million of any keeper (18.1k per million). His program is [A]ELV → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, and he drops to 25k when Bayern visit, so this is a buy for Runde 8 only, to sell again before Runde 9.

Best defenders for Bundes Manager Runde 8

Dayot Upamecano (4.52m, FCB) is the defender to own for the run: 74k → 65k → 86k over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 225k over three rounds and the best weighted six-round score of any defender. He also plays far more than Bayern's full-backs. Upamecano projects 82 minutes, while Nathaniel Brown (owned by 32.8%) projects 47 and is 38k behind him over the three rounds despite costing more. Pair Upamecano with Urbig and you double up on the same Bayern clean sheet.

Matthias Ginter (4.02m, SCF) is the hold at a lower price. He is Freiburg's penalty taker and projects 81k → 65k → 71k over [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV, 218k in total, behind a defence that concedes the fewest xG in the league. He has three assists this season. His trajectory is flat, which is the point: buy him and stop thinking about the position until Runde 10.

Kevin Diks (3.81m, BMG) tops the round at 87k. He is Mönchengladbach's penalty taker, and Paderborn at home is one of the round's softer fixtures. His program is [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB, though, and he falls to 42k and 35k. Diks out-scores Ginter by 6k this round, and Ginter is 54k ahead over three, so take Diks only as a one-round rotation. His fee is about 38k, which is small against an 87k projection.

On a tight budget, Philipp Sander (2.46m, BMG) gives the best points per million of any defender at 24.1k per million: 59k on the same [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB program, then 43k and 21k. He is also a one-rounder. For the longer run, Miguel Gutiérrez (4.68m, B04) projects 59k → 58k → 75k over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP, rising into the Paderborn game.

One to bring in next week rather than now: Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.82m, STU). He projects only 37k at Leverkusen, then 78k → 73k → 66k → 82k as Stuttgart's program turns to [H]WER → [A]S04 → [H]FRA → [A]ELV. Buy him for Runde 9, not Runde 8.

Best midfielders for Bundes Manager Runde 8

Michael Olise (10.46m, FCB) is the template midfielder: 146k → 113k → 161k over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 420k in total. His 1.20 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes this season (five goals, two assists) back it up. Nearly half of managers (46.8%) own him, so he protects your rank more than he wins you places.

Ismael Saibari (7.28m, FCB) is the Bayern differential. He projects 113k → 92k → 134k over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE (340k, second among midfielders over three rounds) and has 1.12 expected goal involvements per 90 so far, at 6.7% ownership. The risk is minutes: he projects 59, so check the Bundes Manager predicted lineups before the deadline (our predicted lineups guide explains how those are built). Note the club cap: you can own at most four Bayern players, so Kane, Olise, Upamecano and one of Urbig or Saibari is the most you can fit.

Moussa Diaby (4.40m, B04) is the best-value hidden gem in the game. He projects 86k → 70k → 94k over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP. That 250k is the third-best three-round total of any midfielder, behind only Olise and Saibari, at under half Saibari's price and 1.9% ownership. Afonso Moreira (3.80m, B04) follows the same rising shape over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP (71k → 60k → 80k, 211k) and is the cheaper way into Leverkusen's run. Ibrahim Maza (4.65m, B04) sits between them on that program at 75k → 64k → 84k, 223k in total.

Hugo Bolin (3.31m, BMG) gives the best points per million of any midfielder at 26.6k per million: 88k against Paderborn. His program is [H]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BVB and he falls to 60k and 32k, so like Diks he is a one-round buy with a fee of about 33k. If you already own Tidiam Gomis (3.10m, RBL) (31.6%), keep him: 78k → 66k → 49k over [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU is good value for the price. Ritsu Doan (4.63m, FRA) is the other low-owned name (1.0%), but his 85k → 61k → 52k on [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF is a falling trajectory. He is a better one-round pick than a hold.

Best forwards for Bundes Manager Runde 8

Harry Kane (15.15m, FCB) is the best player in the game, and 58.7% of managers own him. He projects 208k → 150k → 189k over [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, 546k over three rounds. He has 4.76 xG and 1.86 xA in 445 league minutes (1.34 per 90), and he takes Bayern's penalties. Owning him is not a differentiator. Not owning him is the biggest risk you can take this round.

Patrik Schick (8.26m, B04) is the second-best forward over the window: 129k → 99k → 134k over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP, 362k in total. He has six league goals already, 1.07 expected goal involvements per 90, and he is Leverkusen's penalty taker. Jonathan Burkardt (6.58m, FRA) is third this round at 112k, but his 112k → 79k → 68k over [H]HSV → [A]SCP → [H]HOF falls away after the first game, the same front-loaded shape as Frankfurt's program.

Tim Lemperle (4.74m, HOF) is the forward differential. He projects 86k → 89k → 55k over [A]WER → [H]S04 → [A]FRA, 230k in total at 1.1% ownership. That is within 29k of Deniz Undav over the same three rounds, for 3.4m less. On a tighter budget, Yussuf Poulsen (2.88m, HSV) has the best points per million of any forward and barely drops: 64k → 62k → 60k over [A]FRA → [H]BMG → [A]WER, 22.1k per million this round, and two goals from 218 league minutes.

The two big Runde 9 buys are worth planning now. Serhou Guirassy (8.71m, BVB) projects only 58k in Munich, then 169k → 107k on [H]ELV → [A]BMG. That 169k is the highest single-round projection of any player in Runde 9, Kane included. Deniz Undav (8.11m, STU) goes 67k → 100k → 92k → 85k → 100k as Stuttgart's program opens up after [A]B04. Neither is a buy for Runde 8, but both are why it pays to keep some value free for next week. Check the Bundes Manager optimal teams for how the solver balances them against this round's Bayern picks.

Bundes Manager Runde 8 captain picks

Captain Harry Kane (15.15m, FCB), whose program is [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE. His 208k is the highest projection in the round by 62k, he carries 0.90 expected goals against Dortmund, and he takes the penalties. Doubled, nobody else comes close.

The alternatives are Michael Olise (146k, same Bayern program) and Patrik Schick (129k, [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP), with Saibari (113k) and Burkardt (112k) behind them. If you do not own Kane, Olise is the captain. If you want a differential captain, Schick at 16.3% ownership is the one with a real ceiling.

Plan the next two armbands as well. In Runde 9, Guirassy at home to Elversberg (169k) projects higher than Kane at Mainz (150k), so owning Guirassy from Runde 9 also gives you that round's captain. In Runde 10, Kane against Köln (189k) is back on top, ahead of Olise (161k). More on the method in our guide to picking your fantasy captain.

Who to sell before Bundes Manager Runde 8

Luis Diaz (9.12m, FCB) is the clearest sale. He is owned by 16.3% and listed as unavailable until 28 November, and he projects nothing across [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE in Runde 8, 9 and 10. Why now: his return lands in Runde 11, so holding him means three empty rounds in an 11-man squad with no bench, and the money buys Diaby and a Bayern defender today.

Niclas Füllkrug (5.04m, WER) is the in-form sell. He has six league goals, and [H]HOF is a fair Runde 8 fixture worth 66k. But [A]STU follows and he drops to 30k, then 54k against Hamburg: 151k over three rounds. Why now: Lemperle already out-scores him this round (86k), so there is no good week to wait for.

Marvin Schwäbe (3.30m, KOE), owned by 12.6%, is a sell into a decent fixture. [A]FCU is a reasonable game for him at 52k, and it is the best one Köln have before Runde 11, because [H]B04 → [A]FCB follow and he falls to 37k and 18k. Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (2.04m, KOE) (12.1%) has the same [A]FCU → [H]B04 → [A]FCB program and projects 34k → 17k → -5k. Why now: Atubolu out-scores Schwäbe in this round too, so the Union game is the moment to swap, not a reason to stay.

Anthony Caci (3.25m, M05), owned by 27.1%, is a sell you can wait a round on. His program is [A]ELV → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, and 64k at Elversberg is a good Runde 8. The problem is Runde 9 (16k with Bayern visiting), and 46k in Augsburg after it is only a partial recovery, so plan to swap him before that deadline rather than this one.

Do not sell the Dortmund players, even though Runde 8 is their worst fixture in the window. Joane Gadou (31.3%) projects 3k in Munich and 74k at home to Elversberg; Gregor Kobel goes 26k → 90k → 71k, and Guirassy goes 58k → 169k. Selling now means paying to buy back into their best run of the window. The exception is Konstantinos Karetsas (20.6%), who is unavailable until 6 November and projects -5k in Runde 8. That is only worth acting on if you have a transfer to spare.

Runde 8 transfer summary

In: Upamecano or Urbig for the Bayern run, Diaby for Leverkusen's, Lemperle up front, and Ginter if you want a set-and-forget defender. One-round rotations: Diks, Bolin, Sander, Schwolow. Out: Luis Diaz, Füllkrug, and the Köln pair. Keep the Dortmund block. Then line up Guirassy and Undav for Runde 9. Last week's thinking is in the Bundes Manager Runde 7 preview, and every round is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 8?

Harry Kane. He projects 208k at home to Dortmund, 62k more than anyone else in the round, with 0.90 expected goals and the penalties. Michael Olise (146k) is the alternative if you do not own Kane, and Patrik Schick (129k) is the differential captain.

Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 8?

Moussa Diaby (4.40m, 1.9% owned) projects 250k over [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP, the third-best midfield total over three rounds. Tim Lemperle (4.74m, 1.1%) projects 230k up front, and Jonas Urbig (5.13m, 0.3%) is the best goalkeeper over the window at 223k.

Should I sell Luis Diaz before Bundes Manager Runde 8?

Yes. Luis Diaz is unavailable until 28 November and projects nothing in Runde 8, 9 or 10. His 9.12m funds Diaby and a Bayern defender for the next three rounds.

Should I sell my Dortmund players before Runde 8?

No. Dortmund are at Bayern in Runde 8, but [H]ELV → [A]BMG follows: Guirassy goes from 58k to 169k and Kobel from 26k to 90k. Hold them through one weak round. Only Karetsas, injured until 6 November, is worth moving if you have a transfer to spare.

Which cheap defenders are best for Bundes Manager Runde 8?

Matthias Ginter (4.02m) is the cheap defender to hold, at 218k over three rounds as Freiburg's penalty taker. For this round only, Kevin Diks (3.81m, 87k) and Philipp Sander (2.46m, 24.1k per million) both play Paderborn at home.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.