Bundes Manager Runde 7: captain picks and best buys
Bundes Manager Runde 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Bundes Manager Runde 7 opens on Friday 23 October with VfB Stuttgart at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, and the decision it asks for is about the three rounds behind it. RB Leipzig start the best defensive run in the game this round, so their players have to be bought now rather than during it. Mainz 05 have two good fixtures left before Bayern München visit in Runde 9, which makes this the round to plan that exit. Dortmund and Stuttgart both have a dip in Runde 8 between two strong fixtures. Every pick below carries its program for Runde 7, 8 and 9, and the numbers come from the latest model run and the predicted lineups as of 17 October.
Every player is ranked on the Bundes Manager player picks page, and the predicted lineups for Bundes Manager show the minutes behind each projection. Last round's analysis is in the Bundes Manager Runde 6 preview.
The programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning in Runde 7-9
Bayern München still own the best attacking run: [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 adds up to 7.74 expected goals. The Dortmund game in Runde 8 is the one to plan around, and Bayern then host Köln in Runde 10. The story of the round is RB Leipzig. [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA is worth 6.96 expected goals, second only to Bayern, and 0.93 expected clean sheets, the best defensive run in the league by a distance. Elversberg at home is also the strongest single fixture of Runde 7: a 72% win probability, 2.85 expected goals and a 32% clean-sheet chance. That is why this is the round to buy into Leipzig, before the run starts.
Borussia Dortmund ([H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV, 6.60) and VfB Stuttgart ([H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER, 6.37) have the same shape: a strong home game now, a hard away trip in Runde 8 and another good home game in Runde 9. Two very good fixtures out of three is enough to own their attackers through the dip. Bayer Leverkusen ([A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE, 5.83) is the flat program: no great week, no bad one, and Paderborn at home in Runde 10.
At the bottom, Elversberg ([A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]BVB, 3.30 expected goals and 0.30 expected clean sheets) have the weakest run in the game, with Werder Bremen (3.43) and Schalke 04 (3.69) just above them. Mainz 05 are the sell-into case: [H]WER is a good home fixture with a 57% win probability and [A]ELV follows against the weakest program in the league, but [H]FCB in Runde 9 sinks the whole block. All 18 clubs play once in each of Runde 7, 8 and 9, so every row below compares three fixtures with three. The table is sorted on three-round expected goals; dates are on the Bundes Manager schedule and the bookmaker numbers on the market probabilities page.
| Team | Runde 7 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 7-9) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]SCF | 64% | 2.71 | 24% | [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 | 7.74 | 0.77 |
| RBL | [H]ELV | 72% | 2.85 | 32% | [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA | 6.96 | 0.93 |
| BVB | [H]FRA | 65% | 2.54 | 29% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.60 | 0.78 |
| STU | [H]BMG | 68% | 2.72 | 29% | [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER | 6.37 | 0.78 |
| B04 | [A]HOF | 42% | 1.87 | 18% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE | 5.83 | 0.67 |
| HOF | [H]B04 | 35% | 1.71 | 15% | [H]B04 → [A]WER → [H]S04 | 5.24 | 0.77 |
| M05 | [H]WER | 57% | 2.04 | 31% | [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB | 5.07 | 0.68 |
| FRA | [A]BVB | 16% | 1.23 | 8% | [A]BVB → [H]HSV → [A]SCP | 4.80 | 0.63 |
| FCA | [H]FCU | 52% | 1.92 | 28% | [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL | 4.47 | 0.65 |
| KOE | [H]S04 | 47% | 1.80 | 26% | [H]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]B04 | 4.38 | 0.67 |
| BMG | [A]STU | 15% | 1.23 | 7% | [A]STU → [H]SCP → [A]HSV | 4.34 | 0.58 |
| SCP | [H]HSV | 40% | 1.63 | 22% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA | 4.28 | 0.58 |
| HSV | [A]SCP | 34% | 1.49 | 20% | [A]SCP → [A]FRA → [H]BMG | 4.20 | 0.61 |
| SCF | [H]FCB | 18% | 1.41 | 7% | [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU | 4.07 | 0.66 |
| FCU | [A]FCA | 25% | 1.28 | 15% | [A]FCA → [H]KOE → [A]SCF | 3.70 | 0.70 |
| S04 | [A]KOE | 28% | 1.35 | 16% | [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF | 3.69 | 0.45 |
| WER | [A]M05 | 20% | 1.16 | 13% | [A]M05 → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 3.43 | 0.47 |
| ELV | [A]RBL | 12% | 1.13 | 6% | [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]BVB | 3.30 | 0.30 |
Goalkeepers for Bundes Manager Runde 7
Maarten Vandevoordt (5.6m, RBL) is the goalkeeper of the round at 80k, and the Leipzig program carries him beyond it: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA for 80k → 67k → 70k, 217k in total, at 1.0% ownership. Jonas Urbig (5.0m, FCB) is the alternative and the better long hold. The predicted lineups have him in goal for Bayern, he runs [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 for 77k → 68k → 76k, 221k, and he climbs to 90k against Köln in Runde 10. Only 0.4% of managers own him. Over three rounds the two are 4k apart; over four Urbig is clearly ahead, so buy Urbig if you want a keeper you never touch again and Vandevoordt if Leipzig is where you are building.
The value keeper is still Alexander Schwolow (3.3m, M05): [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB for 69k → 67k → 28k. He has the best points per million of any keeper this round, and the plan is the one from last round: two more good weeks, then out before Bayern arrive. Gregor Kobel (5.5m, BVB) is a keeper to hold rather than buy: 73k and 86k either side of 32k in Munich.
Defenders in Runde 7: buy into Leipzig
David Raum (4.9m, RBL) is the top defender of the round at 99k, and he stays top over three rounds: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA for 99k → 72k → 79k, 250k. His 0.32 expected assists against Elversberg are the reason he out-scores every centre-back, and only 2.5% of managers own him. Willi Orban (4.5m, RBL) is the second Leipzig defender on the same [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA run at 83k → 61k → 67k, 211k, on 85 predicted minutes, and Ridle Baku (4.6m) projects the same 83k this round with fewer minutes. Pairing Raum with Vandevoordt doubles up on the best clean-sheet run in the league, but keep the limit of four players per club in mind if a Leipzig attacker is also on your list.
Bayern München defenders remain holds. Alphonso Davies (4.5m, FCB) runs [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 for 75k → 63k → 68k, 206k, and jumps to 92k against Köln in Runde 10. Jonathan Tah (4.3m, 7.3%) is 14k behind him at 192k. Neither is a priority buy over Raum this round, but nothing in the next four rounds is a reason to sell them.
For a cheap defender, Raphael Obermair (3.1m, SCP) is the pick almost nobody owns: [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA for 70k → 50k → 54k, 174k, at 0.1% ownership, level with Nico Schlotterbeck at 5.4m. Josha Vagnoman (4.0m, STU) has the second-best defender score of the round at 91k, and [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER takes him 91k → 34k → 67k. He is a buy if you are already doing Stuttgart, not a reason to start. Anthony Caci (3.1m, M05, 23.9%) is covered under the sells.
Midfielders in Runde 7: Leipzig, Leverkusen and the cheap Dortmund pair
Michael Olise (10.1m, 45.6%) and Luis Diaz (8.4m, 23.8%) are the template and project 401k and 357k over three rounds; owning them protects your rank but does not move it. The decisions are below them. Antonio Nusa (5.3m, RBL) is the best midfielder outside Bayern this round at 119k, and the program backs it: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA for 119k → 80k → 89k, 288k. 17.0% already own him, so for a less-owned way into Leipzig, Ezechiel Banzuzi (3.0m, RBL) runs 79k → 55k → 59k on the same run and Neil El Aynaoui (3.2m, RBL) 75k → 53k → 56k at 0.1% ownership.
Moussa Diaby (4.4m, B04) is the midfielder to buy and stop thinking about. [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE gives him 83k → 86k → 83k, 252k, and he rises to 111k against Paderborn in Runde 10. At 1.6% ownership he is the best differential in midfield, and that flat trajectory is exactly what a hold looks like. Afonso Moreira (3.8m, B04) is the cheaper version at 224k, and Ibrahim Maza (4.4m) sits between them at 234k.
The budget picks come from Dortmund and Stuttgart. Ethan Nwaneri (3.2m, BVB) runs [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV for 93k → 33k → 92k, and Felix Nmecha (4.5m, BVB) 106k → 40k → 109k. Bilal El Khannouss (3.7m, STU) projects 109k → 43k → 74k on [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER, and he shares the best points per million of any midfielder this round with Nwaneri. All three have a dip in Runde 8, but two big rounds out of three is a clean buy at these prices. Said El Mala (5.9m, KOE) is the two-round play: [H]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]B04 for 117k → 79k → 69k at 2.9% ownership, then 34k in Munich in Runde 10, so plan the sell before that.
Ismael Saibari (7.2m, FCB) edges Nusa this round, 121k to 119k, and has 329k over three rounds against Nusa's 288k. His 62 predicted minutes are the reason he is not the pick: Nusa is the safer buy at 1.9m less, and the minutes risk is on the predicted lineups before every deadline (how they are built is in our predicted lineups guide).
Forwards in Runde 7: Guirassy for the plan, Cruz for the differential
Harry Kane (14.8m, 58.8%) projects 161k → 141k → 143k on [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05, 445k, the most in the game, and almost every manager already has him. The forward to add is Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB): [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV for 163k → 66k → 172k, 401k. The Bayern week is the one to plan around; the two home games either side are two of the four best forward scores in the next three rounds, and both make him a captain option.
Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU) has the highest score of the round at 174k, on 0.70 expected goals at home to Mönchengladbach. [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER takes him to 174k → 83k → 126k, 383k. Here the round and the program disagree: Undav wins Runde 7, but Guirassy has 18k more over three rounds and the bigger Runde 9. If you are buying one premium forward and keeping him, buy Guirassy; Undav is the pick if you want the captaincy this round and a cheaper price.
Romulo Cruz (5.8m, RBL) is the differential: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA for 137k → 90k → 99k, 326k, with 0.52 expected goals against Elversberg, the penalties, and 1.6% ownership. Christopher Nkunku (6.8m, RBL) projects 314k on the same run if you want the more familiar name. At the cheap end, Yussuf Poulsen (2.8m, HSV) has the best points per million of any player in the game this round: [A]SCP → [A]FRA → [H]BMG for 93k → 64k → 72k, 229k, more than Niclas Füllkrug at nearly twice the price.
Jonathan Burkardt (6.6m, FRA) and Younes Ebnoutalib (3.9m, FRA, 16.3%) are buys for Runde 8, not Runde 7. Frankfurt start at Dortmund (49k and 43k), then [H]HSV → [A]SCP takes them to 102k → 90k and 91k → 79k. Owners should hold; buyers can wait a round.
Captain picks for Bundes Manager Runde 7
Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU) is the captain on the numbers: 174k against Mönchengladbach is the highest projection of the round, from a 68% win probability and 2.72 team expected goals. Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB) is the close second at 163k against Frankfurt, and Harry Kane (14.8m, FCB) the safe choice at 161k with the penalties at Freiburg. With 58.8% of managers on Kane, Undav or Guirassy is where you gain ground on the template.
Look ahead before you choose who to own. In Runde 8 Kane (141k against Dortmund) is the clear captain, because Undav and Guirassy both have hard away trips. In Runde 9 Guirassy is back on top at 172k against Elversberg. Owning Kane and Guirassy covers all three rounds.
Who to sell before Runde 7
Nathaniel Brown (4.9m, FCB) is owned by 32.5% of managers and is predicted for 23 minutes at Freiburg. He projects 35k → 27k → 37k on [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05, a Bayern run worth 57k-75k a round to a starting defender. Sell him now, while Davies (206k) or Tah (192k) still gets you the whole Bayern program for less money.
Tidiam Gomis (3.1m, RBL, 24.9%) is the Leipzig player not to have. On 29 predicted minutes he projects 54k → 41k → 45k, while Banzuzi at 3.0m projects 79k → 55k → 59k on the same run. The why-now is the program itself: Elversberg at home is Leipzig's best week, and it is this one. Konstantinos Karetsas (3.3m, BVB, 24.4%) is the same case at Dortmund, 32k → 11k → 38k on 20 minutes against Nwaneri's 93k → 33k → 92k for 0.1m less.
Manuel Neuer (5.9m, FCB, 6.3%) projects no minutes in any of the next four rounds, with Urbig in goal; Robin Zentner (3.6m, M05, 9.6%) is listed unavailable until 30 October. Both are straight sells this round, and Schwolow replaces Zentner inside the same club.
Anthony Caci (3.1m, M05, 23.9%) is the sell to time rather than to make now. [H]WER and [A]ELV are good fixtures, 69k and 63k, and this is not the week to move. But [H]FCB follows and he drops to 16k, so the Mainz block (Caci, Schwolow, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz) goes out after Runde 8, not before. Niclas Füllkrug (4.7m, WER, 15.7%) is the sell that needs no timing: 51k → 56k → 37k on [A]M05 → [H]HOF → [A]STU, and Poulsen out-scores him for 1.9m less in every one of those rounds.
For the multi-round optimum, the optimal teams for Bundes Manager solve the squad live from these projections, and every round's analysis is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 7?
Deniz Undav is the top captain pick at 174k against Borussia Mönchengladbach, the highest projection of the round. Serhou Guirassy (163k against Frankfurt) and Harry Kane (161k at Freiburg) are the alternatives, and Kane is the captain for Runde 8.
Which RB Leipzig players should I buy for Bundes Manager Runde 7?
David Raum (99k, 250k over Runde 7-9) is the top defender of the round, Antonio Nusa (119k) and Romulo Cruz (137k) lead the attack, and Maarten Vandevoordt is the goalkeeper. Leipzig's [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA run has 0.93 expected clean sheets, the best in the league.
Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 7?
Romulo Cruz (1.6% owned, 326k over three rounds), Moussa Diaby (1.6%, 252k), Jonas Urbig (0.4%, 221k) and Raphael Obermair (0.1%, 174k) each out-project most of the popular picks at their price over the next three rounds.
Should I sell Anthony Caci before Bundes Manager Runde 7?
No, not yet. Caci projects 69k against Werder Bremen and 63k at Elversberg, but drops to 16k when Bayern München visit Mainz in Runde 9, so sell him after Runde 8.
Who should I sell in Bundes Manager Runde 7?
Nathaniel Brown (32.5% owned, 23 predicted minutes), Tidiam Gomis (24.9%, 29 minutes) and Konstantinos Karetsas (24.4%, 20 minutes) are the widely owned players to move on, along with Manuel Neuer and Robin Zentner, who project no minutes.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.