Bundes Manager Runde 6: captain picks and best buys

Bundes Manager Runde 6 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundes Manager Runde 6 kicks off on Friday 16 October with Eintracht Frankfurt against 1. FC Köln, and the round is less about the next weekend than about the three that follow it. Bayern München host RB Leipzig and still own the best program in the game, but the transfers that move your rank are the fillers: a Mainz 05 block with the best defensive run in the league, a Leverkusen midfield that almost nobody owns, a Köln attacker the template has missed, and a handful of widely held players whose next rounds have collapsed. Every pick below carries its program for Runde 6, 7 and 8, and the numbers are from the latest model run.

If you want the full table behind this article, the Bundes Manager player picks rank every player by projected points, and the predicted lineups for Bundes Manager show the minutes each projection is built on.

The programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning in Runde 6-8

Bayern München run [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, the best three-round run in the game at 8.84 expected goals and 0.83 expected clean sheets. The Dortmund week in Runde 8 is the one to plan around, not to avoid. Behind them the gap is large: Stuttgart's [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04 is worth 6.36 expected goals, Dortmund's [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB 6.03, and Leverkusen's [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU 5.97 with a 29% clean-sheet chance in Runde 6.

Mainz 05 are the program the template has not caught up with. [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV adds up to only 5.41 expected goals, but 0.83 expected clean sheets ties Bayern München for the best defensive run in the league, and Mainz players are cheap. At the other end, Union Berlin ([H]BVB → [A]FCA → [H]KOE, 3.82 expected goals) and Freiburg ([A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, 3.83 and 0.44 clean sheets) have the two weakest runs. RB Leipzig are the special case: away at Bayern München with a 3% clean-sheet chance and a 9% win probability, then [H]ELV → [A]S04, which is why their 5.92 three-round total hides a bad Runde 6.

All 18 clubs play once in Runde 6, Runde 7 and Runde 8, so every row below compares three fixtures with three. The table is sorted on the three-round columns; the full fixture list is on the Bundes Manager schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind it are on the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers for Bundes Manager Runde 6

Alexander Schwolow (3.3m, M05) is the best goalkeeper buy for the next three rounds, with a program of [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV. He projects 61k → 70k → 67k, 198k in total, which is the highest three-round score of any keeper and more than Manuel Neuer (192k) at almost half the price. Only 2.1% of managers own him. The Schalke away game is the weakest of the three and still carries a 24% clean-sheet chance. Plan for Runde 9, though: Mainz host Bayern München and he drops to 29k, so he is a three-round hold, not a season one.

Mark Flekken (4.9m, B04) is the alternative at a higher price: [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU, 68k → 59k → 62k, 189k, and he holds 69k into Runde 9 at Köln. Gregor Kobel (5.5m, BVB) tops the round at 77k with Dortmund's 31% clean-sheet chance at Union, but [A]FCB in Runde 8 drops him to 34k, so he is not a buy for the run.

For a cheap one-round play, Karl Hein (3.3m, WER) runs [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF for 66k → 38k → 47k. He has the best points per million of any keeper this round, but treat him as a Runde 6 rotation and plan to sell again before Runde 7.

Defenders in Runde 6: Stuttgart, Mainz and the Bayern München question

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.8m, STU) is the top defender of the round at 96k and Stuttgart's penalty taker, and the reason to buy him now is that Runde 7 is almost as good: [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04 gives 96k → 93k → 49k, 238k over three rounds and the best total of any defender. Two very good fixtures make this a clean buy at 2.1% ownership. The Leverkusen away game in Runde 8 is the dip, and he is back to 94k at home to Werder in Runde 9, so owners can hold him through it.

The Mainz back line is the value play. Anthony Caci (3.1m, M05) runs 59k → 72k → 65k across [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV, 196k in total and the second-best three-round defender. For a cheaper Mainz defender, Stefan Posch (2.6m, M05) projects 51k → 60k → 56k on the same [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV run with 87 predicted minutes against Schalke, and Kacper Potulski (2.7m, M05) is the low-owned version at 0.3%, with 49k → 56k → 53k. Pairing one of them with Alexander Schwolow doubles up on the same Mainz clean sheet, and the program supports it.

Among Bayern München's defenders, Josip Stanisic (4.3m, FCB) projects best: [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, 71k → 67k → 49k, 187k. Jonathan Tah (4.3m, FCB) is right behind him at 71k → 66k → 47k for the same price, and Dayot Upamecano (4.4m) follows at 70k → 65k → 45k. Nathaniel Brown is the most-owned Bayern München defender at 32.8%, but the model has him on 36 minutes against Leipzig and 50k for the round, so he is the one not to buy. With a limit of four players per club, a Bayern München defender also competes with a fourth attacker for the same slot, which is covered in the midfield section.

The cheapest useful defender in the game is Koki Machida (2.0m, HOF): 58k this round on [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]WER, which is the best points per million of any defender. Leverkusen at home in Runde 7 drops him to 37k, so he is a one-round rotation on a fee that barely registers, with 47k at Werder after it. The hidden gem for a longer hold is Raphael Obermair (3.1m, SCP) at 0.2% ownership. Paderborn's [A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG is not a strong run, but he is predicted for 79 minutes and projects 46k → 65k → 47k. One player worth knowing about for later: David Raum (4.9m, RBL) scores 8k at Bayern München and then 97k against Elversberg. Leave him out now; he is a buy from Runde 7.

Midfielders for Runde 6: the template, the fourth Bayern München slot, Leverkusen and Köln

Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB, 45.5% owned) and Luis Diaz (8.4m, FCB, 24.2%) are in most squads already, and with 167k and 142k this round on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB they stay there. Owning them does not separate you from anyone. The decisions are the spots after them.

Ismael Saibari (7.2m, FCB) is the fourth Bayern München option at 5.1% ownership: 117k → 104k → 82k, 303k over [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB. He carries more minutes risk than Michael Olise and Luis Diaz (51 predicted minutes against Leipzig), but no midfielder outside Bayern München comes close to his three-round total. If your four Bayern München slots are already full, Josip Stanisic or Jonathan Tah is the cheaper way to keep exposure to the same run.

The best non-Bayern München midfielder over the run is a Köln player. Said El Mala (6.0m, KOE) runs [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU for 90k → 105k → 72k, 267k, at 2.7% ownership and 77 predicted minutes at Frankfurt. The Schalke home game in Runde 7 is the peak of the run, so he needs to be in before it rather than after.

Leverkusen are the cheaper differential block. Ibrahim Maza (4.4m, B04) projects 88k → 74k → 80k over [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU, 242k, and Moussa Diaby (4.4m, B04) is owned by just 0.7% and follows at 83k → 72k → 77k, 232k. Afonso Moreira (3.8m, B04) on the same [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU run at 79k → 66k → 71k gives the best points per million of the three at 21k per million this round. The program is flat rather than spectacular, and Leverkusen stay level into Runde 9 at Köln, which is exactly what makes them holds: buy once and leave them through Runde 8.

This is where the round and the run disagree. Can Uzun (4.4m, FRA) out-scores Ibrahim Maza this round, 104k against 88k, at home to 1. FC Köln. But Frankfurt go to Dortmund in Runde 7 and he drops to 37k, so Ibrahim Maza ends the three rounds 22k ahead for the same price. If you are buying one midfielder and keeping him, buy Ibrahim Maza. Nadiem Amiri (6.2m, M05) is the Mainz route into midfield and the club's penalty taker, 81k → 95k → 66k, though he drops to 36k when Bayern München visit in Runde 9.

For a budget midfielder that lasts, Marius Bülter (3.6m, KOE) runs [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU for 75k → 83k → 57k, and Mikey Moore (3.1m, KOE) 70k → 74k → 51k, the best three-round points per million of any midfielder. Both are predicted for 80 minutes or more at Frankfurt, and the same Köln logic applies: be in before Schalke. Antonio Nusa (5.3m, RBL, 17.4% owned) is the midfield version of David Raum: 22k at Bayern München, then 111k at home to Elversberg, so a buy for Runde 7 rather than now.

Forwards for Runde 6: Kane, then Mainz

Harry Kane (14.8m, FCB) is owned by 58.9% and projects 202k → 174k → 140k on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, 516k over three rounds. He is the highest-scoring player in the game in each of the three rounds and takes Bayern München's penalties, so there is nothing to decide here except the captaincy.

Patrik Schick (8.0m, B04) is the steadiest premium after him: 124k → 106k → 113k over [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU, 343k, with no weak round in the run, and he is on Leverkusen's penalty list. Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB) runs [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB and scores more over Runde 6 and 7, 141k and 154k, but the Bayern München away game in Runde 8 drops him to 66k. He then rebounds to 166k against Elversberg in Runde 9, so for an owner the Bayern week is a dip to hold through, not a reason to sell. For a new buy, Patrik Schick's program is the cleaner one.

The Mainz attack is the value story of the run. Phillip Tietz (5.2m, M05) projects 91k → 108k → 101k, 300k, and Sheraldo Becker (4.6m, M05) 89k → 108k → 98k, 295k at 1.8% ownership. Both are predicted for 75 minutes or more, and their program [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV keeps them near or above 90k in every round. Like the rest of the Mainz block they fall away when Bayern München visit in Runde 9, so this is a three-round buy. Here the round and the run disagree again: Niclas Füllkrug (4.7m, WER) projects more than Sheraldo Becker this round at 108k, but drops to 47k at Mainz in Runde 7. Over three rounds Sheraldo Becker is 87k ahead.

Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU) is a two-round buy on [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04: 113k, then 152k, then 64k. Buy him for Stuttgart's [A]HSV → [H]BMG window and plan to move him on before Runde 8. For a budget forward, Yussuf Poulsen (2.8m, HSV) is the best value of any forward over the run, 220k for 2.8m, and goes 69k → 89k → 62k over [H]STU → [A]SCP → [A]FRA.

Captain picks for Bundes Manager Runde 6

The captain scores double, and Harry Kane (14.8m, FCB) is the clear pick at 202k on [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, at home to Leipzig with a 79% win probability for Bayern München. Michael Olise is the alternative at 167k, and Serhou Guirassy at 141k is the best captain outside Bayern München.

The captaincy plan beyond this round points the same way. Harry Kane is still the top captain in Runde 7 (174k at Freiburg) and Runde 8 (140k against Dortmund). The first round where somebody else edges him is Runde 9, when Serhou Guirassy projects 166k at home to Elversberg against Harry Kane's 145k at Mainz. That is a reason to keep Serhou Guirassy through his Runde 8 dip.

Who to sell before Bundes Manager Runde 6

Albert Grønbæk (3.1m, HSV) is the clearest sale, owned by 12.0%. He is listed as unavailable with a return date of 26 October, and the model has him at -5k in both Runde 6 and Runde 7. The why-now is simple: there are two empty rounds before he can play again, and Hamburg's [H]STU → [A]SCP → [A]FRA is one of the weaker runs even after he returns.

Robin Zentner (3.6m, M05), owned by 10.3%, is the same case in goal. He is listed as unavailable until 26 October and projects -5k in every one of the next four rounds, because Alexander Schwolow holds the Mainz shirt. The why-now: the Mainz program you would want him for, [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV, is happening now, and Schwolow is 0.3m cheaper and the best keeper buy over it, so the swap is like-for-like.

Yuito Suzuki (4.3m, SCF), owned by 16.3%, and Jordy Makengo (3.0m, SCF), owned by 10.7%, are the Freiburg sales. Freiburg have one of the two weakest programs in the game, [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, with a 22% win probability at Leverkusen. Suzuki is predicted for only 20 minutes and projects 12k → 8k → 33k; Makengo 17k → -3k → 28k. The Bayern München home game in Runde 7 is the low point for both, so selling now skips two weak rounds instead of one. Sheraldo Becker at 4.6m is the like-for-like replacement for Suzuki and scores 242k more over the three rounds.

Three popular players look like sales and are not, yet. Tidiam Gomis (3.1m, RBL, 29.5%) projects only 9k at Bayern München on 29 predicted minutes, but Leipzig's run after it is good and he is back to 55k against Elversberg, so you can wait a round on him. Younes Ebnoutalib (3.7m, FRA, 12.3%) is the opposite: 108k at home to 1. FC Köln is the best points per million of any forward this round, but [A]BVB follows and he drops to 30k, so keep him for Runde 6 and make the sale before Runde 7, into a good score rather than out of a bad one. And the Dortmund block of Joane Gadou (33.1%), Konstantinos Karetsas (23.2%) and Ethan Nwaneri (17.3%) dips hard at Bayern München in Runde 8, then recovers against Elversberg in Runde 9; one weak round is not worth a fee on each of them.

The optimal teams for Bundes Manager solve the best squad live on the same numbers, for one round or across several. Last round's thinking is in the Bundes Manager Runde 5 preview, and every round's article is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 6?

Harry Kane is the captain pick at 202k projected, at home to RB Leipzig with a 79% win probability. Michael Olise (167k) is the alternative, and Serhou Guirassy (141k) is the best option outside Bayern München. Harry Kane is also the top captain in Runde 7 and Runde 8.

Which budget defenders are best for Bundes Manager Runde 6?

Anthony Caci (3.1m) and the Mainz pair Stefan Posch (2.6m) and Kacper Potulski (2.7m) are the best budget defenders. Mainz's [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV is worth 0.83 expected clean sheets over three rounds, tied with Bayern München for the best in the league. Koki Machida (2.0m, Hoffenheim) is the best one-round value at 58k.

Should I sell Yuito Suzuki before Bundes Manager Runde 6?

Yes. Yuito Suzuki is predicted for 20 minutes and projects 12k → 8k → 33k over Freiburg's [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA, one of the two weakest programs in the game. Sheraldo Becker (4.6m, Mainz) costs 0.3m more and projects 295k over the same three rounds against Suzuki's 53k.

What are the best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 6?

Moussa Diaby (4.4m, Leverkusen) at 0.7% ownership and Said El Mala (6.0m, Köln) at 2.7% are the best midfield differentials, with 232k and 267k projected over the next three rounds. Sheraldo Becker (4.6m, 1.8%), Alexander Schwolow (3.3m, 2.1%) and Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.8m, 2.1%) are the other low-owned picks with strong three-round programs.

Is Gomis worth selling after his low Runde 6 projection?

Not yet. Tidiam Gomis projects 9k away at Bayern München, but Leipzig's next two fixtures are [H]ELV and [A]S04 and he returns to 55k in Runde 7, so you can hold him through the Bayern game.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.