Bundes Manager Runde 5: best buys and captain picks
Bundes Manager Runde 5 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials
Bundes Manager Runde 5 opens on Friday 9 October at 20:30 with Dortmund against Werder Bremen, the first game after the international break. All 18 Bundesliga clubs play, so there is no blank to plan around, and the decision this round is really about the run behind it. Bayern's [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is the strongest attacking program in the game by a distance, Dortmund's [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA carries the most expected clean sheets, and Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG quietly combines both. Below you will find the best buys per position, the captaincy order for this round and the next two, the low-owned differentials, and the widely owned players worth selling now rather than later. Every projection is on the Bundes Manager player picks page.
The programs: whose next three Bundes Manager rounds are worth owning
Bayern lead every attacking measure: 9.34 expected goals across [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, and the trip to Augsburg is the best single fixture of Runde 5 at 81% win probability and 3.51 expected goals. They also allowed only 0.45 expected goals per game across their first six competitive matches of the season. Leipzig at home in Runde 6 is a week to plan around, not to avoid.
Dortmund's [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA is the defensive pick at 1.00 expected clean sheets, the highest in the game, with two home games either side of the Union trip. Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG (6.69 expected goals, 0.83 expected clean sheets) is the quietly excellent run: two away games, but against two of the weaker sides in the league, then Gladbach at home.
Leipzig ([H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV) look good in Runde 5 and Runde 7 but crash in Munich in between, so their attackers suit managers who can absorb one bad week. Hoffenheim's [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 front-loads the good fixtures: Hamburg at home is a 67% win, Gladbach away is kind, and then Leverkusen arrive. At the bottom, Schalke ([A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE), Hamburg ([A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP), Werder ([A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05) and Gladbach ([A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU) have the thinnest attacking programs, all close to 4 expected goals across three games. Kick-off times are on the Bundes Manager schedule.
| Team | Runde 5 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 5-7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]FCA | 81% | 3.51 | 33% | [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF | 9.34 | 0.95 |
| BVB | [H]WER | 71% | 2.63 | 36% | [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA | 6.81 | 1.00 |
| STU | [A]SCP | 61% | 2.37 | 28% | [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG | 6.69 | 0.83 |
| RBL | [H]FRA | 60% | 2.52 | 24% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.32 | 0.64 |
| HOF | [H]HSV | 67% | 2.47 | 34% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 | 6.02 | 0.73 |
| B04 | [A]M05 | 45% | 1.86 | 22% | [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF | 5.78 | 0.72 |
| KOE | [H]BMG | 46% | 1.83 | 24% | [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04 | 5.10 | 0.67 |
| M05 | [H]B04 | 31% | 1.54 | 16% | [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER | 4.87 | 0.73 |
| FRA | [A]RBL | 20% | 1.44 | 8% | [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB | 4.66 | 0.43 |
| SCF | [H]S04 | 60% | 2.02 | 36% | [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB | 4.33 | 0.56 |
3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets across the three games, not a percentage. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window.
Best goalkeepers for Bundes Manager Runde 5
Manuel Neuer (5.9m, FCB) is the clear keeper pick: 100k → 85k → 85k (270k over three rounds) on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF. He tops the position this round and over the three, and the trajectory is nearly flat, which is the point: buy him and stop thinking about the position. 7.5% own him.
Gregor Kobel (5.5m, BVB) is the alternative at 84k → 76k → 72k (232k) on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, backed by Dortmund's game-leading 1.00 expected clean sheets. Plan to move him on before Runde 8, when Dortmund go to Munich and he drops to 34k. Oliver Baumann (4.6m, HOF) works for two rounds (80k → 65k → 45k on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04) but fades against Leverkusen, so treat him as a two-round pick. Mark Flekken (4.8m, B04) is the steady hold: 63k → 70k → 61k on [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF, then 83k against Paderborn in Runde 10.
One to buy next round rather than now: Alexander Schwolow (3.3m, M05), whose [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER rises 43k → 59k → 67k and holds at 69k in Runde 8; the Leverkusen game makes this week too early.
Best defenders for Bundes Manager Runde 5
Alphonso Davies (4.4m, FCB) leads the defenders this round and over three at 267k (108k → 85k → 74k) on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, and at 12.3% ownership he is not yet template. Jonathan Tah (4.3m, FCB) is close behind on the same program at 255k (105k → 82k → 68k) and is the better points-per-million buy at 4.3m. Dayot Upamecano (14.2% owned) is a comfortable hold at 96k → 77k → 65k. Keep the four-per-club cap in mind: with Kane and Olise already in a squad, only two Bayern spots are left.
Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.7m, STU) is the best non-Bayern defender: 97k this round and 234k across [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG (97k → 80k → 57k), and he is on Stuttgart's penalties. Only 2.0% own him. The value pick is his team-mate Josha Vagnoman (3.9m, STU): 84k → 69k → 76k for 229k, and his projection holds up in the Gladbach game where Mittelstaedt and the Bayern defenders slide. Owning both Stuttgart defenders doubles up on the same clean sheets, a reasonable stack given 0.83 expected clean sheets from [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG.
Here this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. Ozan Kabak projects 89k on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, ahead of Vagnoman's 84k, but Leverkusen in Runde 7 drops him to 37k and Vagnoman finishes the three rounds 40k ahead. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Vagnoman.
Waldemar Anton (4.4m, BVB) is the Dortmund option at 77k → 62k → 55k (194k) on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, owned by 1.9%. He is a three-round hold, not a long one: Runde 8 in Munich takes him to 14k.
Rotation plays: Koki Machida (2.0m, HOF) is the best points-per-million defender in the game at 72k this round (72k → 50k → 26k on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04), and Mats Rots (3.0m, HOF) runs 82k → 61k → 34k on the same Hoffenheim program. With fees of 20k and 30k you can buy either for Runde 5 and Runde 6 and sell again before Leverkusen arrive. Leopold Querfeld (3.2m, FCU) is the other cheap option at 84k against Elversberg, with 0.27 expected goals of his own, but [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA dips to 39k in the Dortmund game, so he is a one-round buy. Leave David Raum alone for now despite his 89k: Leipzig's trip to Munich drops him to 11k in Runde 6, and he is a better buy from Runde 7 (94k against Elversberg).
Best midfielders for Bundes Manager Runde 5
Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) (210k → 183k → 132k) and Luis Diaz (8.4m, FCB) (188k → 160k → 119k) are the obvious Bayern midfielders on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, and 45.0% and 25.2% of managers already own them. Olise has produced 1.29 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes across his first seven games of the season. The ranking question sits below them.
Ismael Saibari (7.0m, FCB) is the third-best midfielder on both measures at 153k → 132k → 102k (388k) on the same Bayern program, owned by only 4.9%. The risk is minutes: the model has him on about 58 this round, and he competes with Kane, Olise and Davies for the four Bayern slots.
Said El Mala (5.7m, KOE) is the strongest mid-price buy over three rounds at 313k on [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04 (121k → 84k → 108k). The model has him on 0.51 expected goals against Gladbach plus most of 1. FC Köln's penalties, and only 2.6% own him. Frankfurt away is the dip; Schalke at home brings him back above 100k.
Adam Hlozek (3.9m, HOF) is the value buy at 115k → 94k → 60k (269k) on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, with 0.40 expected goals against Hamburg. He is owned by 11.9%, so he is not a differential, and the Leverkusen game makes him a two-round buy rather than a hold; his projected 63 minutes are the other caveat. His cheaper team-mate Bambase Conte (3.1m, HOF) (90k → 68k → 39k on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, 1.1% owned) is the same two-round shape for less money.
The differentials: Moussa Diaby (4.1m, B04) (0.6% owned) runs 88k → 97k → 77k on [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF for 263k, one of the few midfielders whose Runde 6 beats his Runde 5, and he reaches 106k against Paderborn in Runde 10. Bilal El Khannouss (3.7m, STU) (3.3%) holds 96k → 77k → 80k (253k) on [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, and Grischa Prömel (4.2m, STU) (0.5%) is the same shape at 89k → 73k → 75k (237k) on the same program. Both Stuttgart programs are flat, so they are holds, not rotations.
For a cheap slot, the round and the horizon disagree. Ethan Nwaneri projects 98k against Werder, but Afonso Moreira (3.6m, B04) overtakes him over three rounds (79k → 86k → 69k, 235k against 217k) on [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF. The difference grows after that: Nwaneri drops to 21k at Bayern in Runde 8, while Moreira stays at 73k, 71k and 95k through Runde 10. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Moreira. Avoid Antonio Nusa for now: 115k → 26k → 106k shows the Munich hole in the middle of Leipzig's run.
Best forwards for Bundes Manager Runde 5
Harry Kane (14.7m, FCB) is the steadiest player in the game and the top projection of the round: 219k → 187k → 139k (544k) on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, with 0.85 expected goals at Augsburg and the bulk of Bayern's penalties. Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB) is close behind at 206k on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, with 0.89 expected goals against Werder and 1.00 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes so far this season, for 6.0m less. He falls to 63k at Bayern in Runde 8 and rebounds to 172k against Elversberg in Runde 9, so he is a hold through Runde 7 with one bad week behind it.
Deniz Undav (8.0m, STU) has the flattest premium program in the game (150k → 125k → 126k, 400k) on [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG. Patrik Schick (7.8m, B04) (111k → 127k → 100k) is the one premium forward whose Runde 6 beats his Runde 5, on [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF; he takes Leverkusen's penalties and climbs to 143k against Paderborn in Runde 10, which makes him one of the steadiest long holds in the game.
Fabio Silva (4.4m, BVB) is the new name this round and the best points-per-million forward in the game: 137k → 91k → 78k (306k) on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, with 0.49 expected goals against Werder and 76 projected minutes. The risk is that he has mostly come off the bench so far (275 minutes across seven appearances), and Dortmund's Runde 8 trip to Munich takes him to 36k, so he is a three-round buy, not a season hold.
Below him, this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. Igor Matanovic projects 134k against Schalke, but falls to 58k and 39k after it. Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.5m, STU) is the pick over three rounds at that price level: 109k → 92k → 102k (303k) on [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, ahead of Tim Lemperle (4.7m, HOF) at 127k → 94k → 58k (280k) on [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 and Maximilian Beier (5.5m, BVB) at 118k → 82k → 73k (273k) on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. Pejcinovic's risk is minutes (about 68 projected), Lemperle's is the Leverkusen game in Runde 7, Beier's is Dortmund's Runde 8 trip to Munich (32k). If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Pejcinovic.
The riser is Sheraldo Becker (4.6m, M05): 70k → 86k → 87k on [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER, then 98k at Elversberg in Runde 8, owned by 1.8%. He can wait a round, since Leverkusen in Runde 5 is his weakest fixture of the four. Emmanuel Latte Lath (2.6m, FCU) (76k → 44k → 64k, [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA) is the cheapest forward worth a spot. Weigh every option on the optimal teams for Bundes Manager, which solves the best squad for this round and the next ones live.
Captain picks for Bundes Manager Runde 5
Harry Kane (14.7m, FCB) is the captain at 219k on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, ahead of Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) (210k on the same Bayern program) and Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB) (206k on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA). Captain points count double, and Kane also tops the captaincy order in Runde 6 (187k against Leipzig) and Runde 7 (139k at Freiburg), so the captaincy plan for the next three rounds runs through him. Olise is the alternative if you do not own Kane, only 9k behind this round, and Guirassy is the way to differ from the 59.0% who own Kane; he is also the top captain option in Runde 9 at 172k.
Who to sell before Bundes Manager Runde 5
Nathaniel Brown (4.7m, FCB) is the clearest sale. 34.1% own him and Bayern's [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is excellent, but he is projected for about 14 minutes and 32k → 36k → 38k. Why now: his problem is minutes, not fixtures, so no round in the program lifts him, and Davies on the same program out-scores him by 76k in Runde 5 alone.
Konstantinos Karetsas (3.2m, BVB) (23.8% owned) has dropped out of Dortmund's projected starting eleven: about 21 minutes and 40k → 42k → 38k on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. Why now: Werder at home is the best fixture he has in the next six rounds and he still projects only 40k, so waiting gains nothing, and Moreira or Nwaneri cost about the same.
Yuito Suzuki (4.3m, SCF) (16.2% owned) is the sale to time. Schalke at home is a fine fixture and 86k is a respectable score, but [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB then drops him to 34k and 18k. Why now rather than after Runde 5: Lemperle costs only a little more and already out-scores him this round (127k), so you do not even give up the Schalke week by moving early.
Three more widely owned players project close to nothing: Robin Zentner (10.5% owned) and Albert Grønbæk (12.5%) are both listed as unavailable until 22 October, so Runde 7 is the earliest either can return, and Loic Badé (11.2%) is projected for about 9 minutes. Check the Bundes Manager predicted lineups before the deadline in case that changes.
And the ones that can wait: Tidiam Gomis (29.8% owned) is back in Leipzig's projected eleven at about 70 minutes, and 104k → 24k → 92k on [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV means one bad week in Munich, not a collapse, so hold him. Joane Gadou (30.5% owned, 69k → 55k → 48k on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA) is fine to hold through Runde 7; Runde 8 in Munich (10k) is the round to move him on, not this one. Jordy Makengo (10.5%) gets 59k against Schalke and then 14k and 1k on [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB, so keep him for Runde 5 and sell before Leverkusen.
Transfer summary for Bundes Manager Runde 5
- Buy: Alphonso Davies, Jonathan Tah, Maximilian Mittelstaedt or Josha Vagnoman in defence; Said El Mala, Moussa Diaby, Bilal El Khannouss or Afonso Moreira in midfield; Fabio Silva, Dzenan Pejcinovic or Tim Lemperle up front.
- Sell: Nathaniel Brown, Konstantinos Karetsas, Yuito Suzuki and any non-playing squad filler.
- Captain: Harry Kane, with Michael Olise and Serhou Guirassy as the alternatives.
- Wait a round: Alexander Schwolow and Sheraldo Becker, whose Mainz programs rise after Runde 5; sell Jordy Makengo after Runde 5 rather than before it.
Bookmaker odds behind every fixture are on the Bundes Manager market probabilities page. Last round's analysis is in our Bundes Manager Runde 4 preview, and every article for the game is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub. New to the game? Start with our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Harry Kane, at 219k projected at Augsburg. Michael Olise (210k) and Serhou Guirassy (206k) are the alternatives, and Kane also leads the captaincy order in Runde 6 and Runde 7.
Which cheap defenders are best for Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Josha Vagnoman (3.9m) has 229k over the next three rounds on [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG. Koki Machida (2.0m, 72k this round) is the best points-per-million defender in the game, and Mats Rots (3.0m, 82k) is a strong two-round buy.
Should I sell Konstantinos Karetsas before Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Yes. He is projected for about 21 minutes and 40k → 42k → 38k, even with Werder at home, while Afonso Moreira projects 235k over the next three rounds for about the same price.
Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Moussa Diaby (0.6% owned, 263k over three rounds), Grischa Prömel (0.5%, 237k), Maximilian Mittelstaedt (2.0%, 234k) and Said El Mala (2.6%, 313k) all have strong programs and very low ownership.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.