Bundes Manager Runde 5: best buys and captain picks
Bundes Manager Runde 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Runde 5 of Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 opens on Friday 9 October and runs through to Sunday, and it is the first round back after the international break – the cleanest reset point of the autumn so far. All 18 clubs play, so nobody blanks, and the question is not who has one good match but whose next three Runder are worth paying a transfer fee for. Below: the best buys by position, the captain ladder, the differentials almost nobody owns, and the popular names whose program falls apart after this round.
The programs: whose next three Runder are worth owning
The transfer happens in Runde 5. The reason to make it lives in Runde 5, 6 and 7 together. Bayern München have the strongest attacking run in the game – [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is worth 8.79 expected goals across the three, and the opener at Augsburg is the single biggest mismatch of the round (78% win probability, 3.38 xG). Borussia Dortmund own the best defensive program instead: [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA is worth 1.04 expected clean sheets out of three, more than any other side, and it starts with the highest clean-sheet chance of the round at 35.6%. Those two are where Runde 5 is decided.
The under-rated program belongs to VfB Stuttgart: [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG is three genuinely winnable games in a row (6.21 xG, 0.86 expected clean sheets) and their players are priced well below the Bayern and Dortmund equivalents. Bayer Leverkusen are the opposite shape – [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF opens with only a 43% win probability, but Runde 6 and 7 are the better half, so their assets are a buy for next round rather than this one. Hoffenheim sit in between: [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 starts with a 70% win probability and a 35.2% clean-sheet chance, then flattens out, which makes them the round's one-to-two-week play rather than a hold.
| Team | Runde 5 | Win | xG | CS | Program (Runde 5-7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [A]FCA | 78% | 3.38 | 30.3% | [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF | 8.79 | 0.92 |
| Borussia Dortmund | [H]WER | 70% | 2.59 | 35.6% | [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA | 6.37 | 1.04 |
| RB Leipzig | [H]FRA | 62% | 2.47 | 26.5% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.31 | 0.68 |
| VfB Stuttgart | [A]SCP | 59% | 2.23 | 28.4% | [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG | 6.21 | 0.86 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | [A]M05 | 43% | 1.80 | 21.5% | [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF | 5.64 | 0.79 |
| Hoffenheim | [H]HSV | 70% | 2.58 | 35.2% | [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 | 5.63 | 0.76 |
| 1. FC Köln | [H]BMG | 48% | 1.86 | 25.3% | [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04 | 4.88 | 0.75 |
| Mainz 05 | [H]B04 | 32% | 1.54 | 16.6% | [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER | 4.81 | 0.79 |
| Augsburg | [H]FCB | 9% | 1.19 | 3.4% | [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU | 4.21 | 0.55 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | [A]RBL | 19% | 1.33 | 8.5% | [A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB | 4.17 | 0.49 |
| Freiburg | [H]S04 | 58% | 1.99 | 34.3% | [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB | 4.08 | 0.55 |
| Paderborn | [H]STU | 20% | 1.26 | 10.7% | [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV | 4.08 | 0.56 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | [A]KOE | 28% | 1.37 | 15.6% | [A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU | 3.98 | 0.50 |
| Elversberg | [A]FCU | 34% | 1.48 | 19.4% | [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL | 3.96 | 0.48 |
| Union Berlin | [H]ELV | 41% | 1.64 | 22.7% | [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA | 3.92 | 0.64 |
| Hamburger SV | [A]HOF | 13% | 1.04 | 7.6% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP | 3.82 | 0.44 |
| Werder Bremen | [A]BVB | 12% | 1.03 | 7.5% | [A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05 | 3.61 | 0.55 |
| Schalke 04 | [A]SCF | 19% | 1.07 | 13.7% | [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE | 3.50 | 0.52 |
Win probability, expected goals and clean-sheet chance are the same numbers that drive the model behind our Bundes Manager player picks; the full round-by-round fixture list sits on the Bundes Manager schedule page and the underlying match odds on market probabilities.
Goalkeepers for Runde 5
Gregor Kobel (5.5m, BVB) is the goalkeeper the program points at. Dortmund's [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA carries 1.04 expected clean sheets across three rounds, the best number in the game, and he projects 82k with a trajectory of 82k → 74k → 71k – no weak week anywhere in the run. At 9.8% ownership he is not a differential, but he is the one keeper you can buy and stop thinking about.
Manuel Neuer (5.9m, FCB) is the premium alternative and the highest-projected keeper of the round at 94k, with 256k over the three on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF. The catch is that his clean-sheet chance in Runde 5 is 30.3% against Kobel's 35.6% – Bayern score more than they shut out. If you want a Bayern outfield player instead, the goalkeeper spot is where to save.
Two cheaper routes. Oliver Baumann (4.6m, HOF) is the value spike of the round – 81k projected at 2.3% ownership on the back of one of the two highest win probabilities in the round – but his program is [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 and the number falls to 56k and then 44k, so buy him as a one-to-two-round play and name the exit in advance. Alexander Schwolow (3.3m, M05) is the opposite shape: [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER is a rising program, his trajectory is 43k → 63k → 66k and at 3.3m the fee to bring him in is only 33k. If you want one goalkeeper for the whole horizon at the lowest price, that is the one.
Defenders: the Stuttgart block is the value
Everyone can see the Bayern and Dortmund defences. The points are in the third one. Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.7m, STU) projects 91k in Runde 5 – the highest of any defender outside the Bayern and Dortmund back lines – and [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG keeps him relevant all the way through Runde 7 for a total of 225k. He also carries one of the three largest penalty shares of any defender in the pool at 0.87, a ceiling almost no other defender has. Only 1.9% of managers own him.
His team-mate Josha Vagnoman (3.9m, STU) is the cheaper half of the same bet: 214k over the three rounds on the same [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG program, 72 projected minutes in Runde 5 and 20.3 points per million. Daniel Svensson (4.4m, BVB) at 4.4m is the clean-sheet defender to own – Dortmund's [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 85k in Runde 5 and a 85k → 60k → 59k trajectory that never drops below the mid-fifties. Pairing him with Kobel doubles up on the same clean sheet, and with a cap of four players from one club there is room for both plus an attacker.
From Bayern, Alphonso Davies (4.4m, FCB) is the pick: 206k across [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, 82k in Runde 5 and 12.0% ownership. Josip Stanisic (4.3m, FCB) is the same program at 4.3m with 65 projected minutes against Davies' 56, which is the trade-off – more certainty of minutes, slightly less attacking upside. Waldemar Anton (4.4m, BVB) is the cheap differential at 4.4m: 186k over three on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, with 80 projected minutes and 1.6% ownership.
One warning on the round-versus-program split. David Raum (4.7m, RBL) is the second-highest defender in Runde 5 at 85k on [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV, but Leipzig visit Bayern in Runde 6 and he drops to 17k before recovering to 89k. He out-scores Vagnoman this week and loses to him over the three – if you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy the Stuttgart one.
Midfielders: the Bayern engine and the cheap Runde 5 spikes
Michael Olise (10.1m, FCB) is the best midfielder in the game and it is not close: 162k in Runde 5, 415k over [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, and no round in the run below 119k. He is also the most-owned midfielder at 43.7%, so owning him protects rank rather than winning it. Luis Diaz (8.4m, FCB) is the better-value version of the same asset – 376k on the same program, 146k in Runde 5, and 17.4 points per million against Olise's 16.0.
The genuine differential in that block is Ismael Saibari (7.0m, FCB). He projects 125k in Runde 5 and 305k over the [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF run, third among all midfielders, and only 4.3% of managers own him. The reason is minutes – 45 projected in Runde 5 against Olise's 68 – so he is a rotation risk rather than a lock, but at 7.0m he is the cheapest way into the best attacking program in the league. Jamal Musiala (7.4m, FCB) is the same argument one price tier up: 288k over three, 3.3% ownership.
At the cheap end, Ethan Nwaneri (3.1m, BVB) is the highest points-per-million midfielder in the round at 35.2: 111k projected on [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. His program flattens to 54k and 55k afterwards, so this is a one-to-two-round buy and the fee to move him in and out again is only 32k each way. Adam Hlozek (3.9m, HOF) is the same trade at 3.9m – 117k in Runde 5, 241k over three, 12.3% ownership – and his team-mate Adam Daghim (3.5m, HOF) gives you 204k on the same [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 program at 3.5m.
Two hidden gems for managers who prefer to buy once. Grischa Prömel (4.2m, STU) is owned by 0.5% of the game and projects 214k over [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG – a 79k → 60k → 74k trajectory with no bad week in it, at 4.2m. Ibrahim Maza (4.3m, B04) is the Leverkusen route: his program is [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF, so Runde 5 is the weak one at 67k and the numbers rise to 80k and 63k. If you would rather be early than on time, that is the buy.
Forwards: one clear number, then a choice
Serhou Guirassy (8.7m, BVB) is the highest-projected player in Bundes Manager Runde 5 by a distance at 209k, and the case is not a one-week case: [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA is worth 462k to him across the three rounds, the best total of any player in the game. Dortmund host Werder Bremen with a 70% win probability and the highest clean-sheet chance of the round, and he is projected for 75 minutes. At 16.0% ownership only one manager in six has him.
Harry Kane (14.7m, FCB) is the most-owned player in the game at 59.3% and the most expensive at 14.7m. His [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF program is excellent and 375k over three rounds is second only to Guirassy – this is not a sell. It is a value question: 10.0 points per million against Guirassy's 24.0, with a 0.75 penalty share to compensate. If only one premium striker fits, the model prefers the cheaper one this round.
Deniz Undav (8.0m, STU) is the mid-price pick with the best back half: [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, 319k over three rounds, and a trajectory of 111k → 90k → 118k that is actually strongest in Runde 7 at home to Gladbach. His team-mate Ermedin Demirovic (6.6m, STU) is the cheaper version at 6.6m with 257k over the same run. Maximilian Beier (5.5m, BVB) is the Dortmund second striker – 129k in Runde 5, 5.4% ownership, 23.4 points per million – on the same [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA program.
Cheapest of all, Emmanuel Latte Lath (2.6m, FCU) projects 185k over [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA at 2.6m – 30.0 points per million, the best in the position – and Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.5m, STU) gives you 208k across [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG for a fee of just 35k. Both are squad-filler picks that free up money for Guirassy or Olise, which is where the league is actually won. Compare the full pool on the player picks page, or let the solver build the round for you with optimal teams for Bundes Manager.
Captain picks for Runde 5
The kaptajn scores double in Bundes Manager, which makes this the single biggest decision of the round.
- Serhou Guirassy – 209k projected, the highest in the game and 29% clear of second. [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA also makes him the best captain option in Runde 7 (134k), so buying him now covers two of the next three armbands.
- Michael Olise – 162k at Augsburg, the biggest mismatch of the round, and the top captain in Runde 6 (134k) on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF. If you are planning two rounds of armbands rather than one, he is the safer anchor.
- Harry Kane and Luis Diaz – 146k and 146k from that same fixture. Sensible if you already own them and would rather not pay a fee to move the armband somewhere else.
Below that tier the ceiling drops off sharply: Maximilian Beier (129k) and Ismael Saibari (125k) are the best of the rest, but neither is a captain worth paying a fee to buy. Predicted line-ups for every fixture land on the Bundes Manager predicted line-ups page before the deadline.
Who to sell before Runde 5
Nathaniel Brown (4.7m, FCB) is the clearest sale in the game, and the round to do it is this one. He is the third-most-owned player in Bundes Manager at 36.5%, and the fixture is not the problem – Bayern's [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is the best program in the league. The problem is minutes: 39 projected in Runde 5 and 145k over the three rounds, while Alphonso Davies at 4.4m projects 206k and Josip Stanisic at 4.3m projects 198k on exactly the same fixtures. Swapping inside the same club costs 47k and buys you around 40% more points.
Yuito Suzuki (4.3m, SCF) is the sell-into-a-good-week case. Freiburg host Schalke with a 58% win probability and a 34.3% clean-sheet chance – a perfectly respectable fixture, and 75k is a respectable return. But the program is [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB, and he falls to 25k and then 18k once Leverkusen and Bayern arrive. The choice is selling into a fair score now or out of a bad one in two weeks, and the 43k fee is the same either way. The same logic covers Matthias Ginter (8.2% ownership, 4.0m, a 76k → 32k → 23k trajectory) and Jordy Makengo (9.2% ownership, 51k over the three rounds – his Runde 7 projection is actually negative).
Robin Zentner (3.6m, M05) is owned by 11.1% of the game and the model no longer has him in the Mainz eleven: 1 projected minute in Runde 5 and a negative total across [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER. Whatever replaces him is an upgrade, and waiting a round only costs points. Loic Badé (12.1% ownership, 56k over three on 28 projected minutes) and Igor Matanovic (5.0% ownership, 113k → 42k → 35k) are the same trap one tier down – heavily owned, barely projected to play.
One name to hold rather than sell: Tidiam Gomis (2.9m, RBL) is owned by 30.7% and his Runde 6 number collapses to 19k because Leipzig visit Bayern – but [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV ends at home to Elversberg and he bounces back to 66k. At 2.9m the fee to sell and re-buy him costs more than the dip is worth. You can wait a round on that one.
More rounds, more games: the Bundes Manager preview hub collects every round, the Bundes Manager Runde 4 preview covers the last round before the break, and our fantasy football guides explain how the model builds these projections.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Serhou Guirassy. He projects 209k, the highest score of any player in the round and 29% clear of second, and the kaptajn scores double. Michael Olise (162k) is the alternative if you want the armband to stay useful in Runde 6, where he is the top pick on [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF.
Which cheap defenders are best for Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Maximilian Mittelstaedt at 4.7m is the standout: 91k projected in Runde 5, 225k across [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, and one of the biggest penalty shares of any defender in the pool. Josha Vagnoman (3.9m) and Waldemar Anton (4.4m) are the cheaper Stuttgart and Dortmund alternatives on the same programs.
Should I sell Harry Kane before Runde 5?
No. At 14.7m he is the most expensive player in the game and only 10.0 points per million, but [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is worth 375k to him over three rounds, second only to Guirassy. He is a value question, not a sell – if you own him and the squad works, keep him.
Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 5?
Ismael Saibari (7.0m, 4.3% ownership, 305k over three rounds), Grischa Prömel (4.2m, 0.5% ownership) and Tim Lemperle (4.7m, 3.0% ownership, 113k projected in Runde 5) are three of the lowest-owned players in the game attached to a top-tier three-round program.
Does any team blank in Bundes Manager Runde 5?
No. All nine Bundesliga fixtures sit inside the round and every one of the 18 clubs plays once, from Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen on Friday 9 October to Freiburg - Schalke 04 on Sunday 11 October.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.