Bundes Manager Runde 4: captain picks and best buys

Bundes Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundes Manager Runde 4 is a nine-match round that opens on Friday 18 September at 20:30 and runs to Sunday evening. All 18 clubs in the game play, so nobody blanks — the round is decided by who you back inside it, not by who has a fixture. The data below was pulled on 14 September, and it points at one game above all others: Bayern München at home to Union Berlin, with an 88.6% win probability, 3.81 expected goals and a 44.7% clean sheet chance. Nothing else in the round is close.

The obvious names are not where Runde 4 is won, though. Harry Kane (14.30m, Bayern München) is owned by 59.1% of managers and Michael Olise (9.36m, Bayern München) by 43.0%, and the model does not have either of them in the projected starting eleven for this fixture. The edge sits with the Bayern München players almost nobody owns, and with a Hoffenheim side heading to Paderborn on the second-best attacking projection of the round. Check the predicted lineups for Bundes Manager before the deadline — this is a round where the teamsheet decides a lot.

Runde 4 fixtures: where the points are

The five teams worth building around, one row per team:

Bayern München - Union Berlin is the game of the round in projection terms, and it is not a close call: the visitors are given a 3.6% chance of winning and a 2.2% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Hoffenheim have the second-best mix of goals and clean-sheet odds, and they are cheap. The big name-value fixture, VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund, is actually the tightest game on the card, which is exactly why it is a poor place to spend a captaincy.

Beyond Runde 4 the program matters for anyone planning two or three rounds ahead: Bayern München go [A] Augsburg then [H] RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund get [H] Werder Bremen then [A] Union Berlin, and Hoffenheim follow their Paderborn trip with [H] Hamburger SV before a harder [A] Borussia Mönchengladbach. The full picture is on the Bundes Manager schedule page.

Best goalkeeper buys for Runde 4

Manuel Neuer (5.68m, Bayern München) is the top-projected keeper in the game for this round at 105k, and it is the fixture doing the work: a 44.7% clean sheet chance is the highest in the round by a distance. His projection also holds up — 105k → 88k → 78k → 84k across Runde 4 to 7 — so this is not a one-round rental.

The value alternative is Loris Karius (3.22m, Schalke 04) at 59k for 3.22m, a PPM of 18.36 and a 24.9% clean sheet chance at home to Elversberg. If you would rather have the differential, Oliver Baumann (4.57m, Hoffenheim) is on 74k and owned by just 1.6% — Hoffenheim have the second-best clean sheet odds of the round at 27.1%, and he is the cheapest route into that fixture.

Best defenders for Bundes Manager Runde 4

Four of the five top-projected defenders in the round are Bayern München players, and the game caps you at four players from one club, so the question is which of them.

• Alphonso Davies (4.17m, Bayern München) — 132k, and the highest-projected defender in the game for Runde 4. A PPM of 31.62 is elite for the position, and the model has him on 88 minutes in the projected XI. Trajectory: 132k → 93k → 78k → 75k.
• Konrad Laimer (5.14m, Bayern München) — 127k and owned by only 2.6%. He is the differential of the defensive picks: nearly the same projection as Davies at a fraction of the ownership.
• Jonathan Tah (4.10m, Bayern München) — 117k at 4.10m, a clean 90 minutes in the projection and a PPM of 28.49.
• Dayot Upamecano (4.34m, Bayern München) — 115k, and the most-owned of the four at 12.1%. Fine to keep, but Laimer and Tah are the better differentials out of the same clean sheet.

Budget defenders: the Hoffenheim back line is the cheapest way to buy a 27.1% clean sheet. Ozan Kabak (3.68m, Hoffenheim) is on 82k for 3.68m (PPM 22.37), Mats Rots (3.03m, Hoffenheim) on 67k and Albian Hajdari (2.96m, Hoffenheim) on 64k at under 3m. At those prices the transfer fee is about 30k, which makes them genuinely worth buying for one or two rounds and selling again. Kabak is owned by 1.3% and Rots by 0.3% — these are the spots where league position is actually won. The live squad solve on the Bundes Manager optimal teams page leans on exactly these cheap clean-sheet routes.

One more for the longer horizon: Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.74m, VfB Stuttgart) is only 61k this round but rises to 79k and 71k in Runde 5 and 6, and he takes penalties for VfB Stuttgart. That is a buy-next-round pick rather than a buy-now pick.

Best midfielders for Runde 4

Luis Diaz (8.32m, Bayern München) is the highest-projected player in the entire game for Runde 4 at 228k, with 0.64 expected goals and 0.32 expected assists in a single fixture and 90 minutes in the projected XI. At 27.2% ownership he is closer to template than differential, but a PPM of 27.45 means he earns his price rather than just borrowing it.

The pick that actually separates squads is Ismael Saibari (6.79m, Bayern München): 217k for 6.79m, owned by only 5.3%, and the best points-per-million figure of any premium in the round at 32.03. The model has him in the projected XI with 0.50 expected goals. Lennart Karl (5.77m, Bayern München) is the third route in at 143k and 3.5% ownership.

Joshua Kimmich (5.27m, Bayern München) at 116k is the steady 90-minute option if you would rather not carry rotation risk — just remember the four-per-club cap when you are already deep in Bayern München players.

Budget midfielders: Adam Hlozek (3.90m, Hoffenheim) is the standout at 115k for 3.90m — a PPM of 29.38 and only 2.4% owned. Adam Daghim (3.32m, Hoffenheim) is on 100k at 3.32m with a PPM of 30.21, the best in the position. And Bambase Conte (3.13m, Hoffenheim) is the deepest differential in the game: 87k at 3.13m, and effectively unowned at 0.1%.

Outside Hoffenheim, Kenan Karaman (4.07m, Schalke 04) (86k, 0.6% owned) and Moussa Diaby (4.05m, Bayer Leverkusen) (77k, 0.4%) are the low-ownership mid-price options, and Nadiem Amiri (6.05m, Mainz 05) takes the penalties for Mainz 05 on 85k. Compare all of them side by side on the Bundes Manager player picks page.

Best forwards for Runde 4

Serhou Guirassy (8.63m, Borussia Dortmund) is the top-projected forward in the round at 124k, and he is the best forward to own across the whole horizon: 124k → 183k → 133k → 150k. That Runde 5 figure of 183k at home to Werder Bremen is the highest single-round forward projection in the next four rounds, so buying him now buys two rounds rather than one.

Tim Lemperle (4.68m, Hoffenheim) is the biggest differential in the game: 116k for 4.68m, owned by 0.5% — the highest-projected player under 1% ownership anywhere in the pool, with 0.44 expected goals at Paderborn. If you want one calculated risk this round, it is this one.

Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.56m, VfB Stuttgart) is the value forward: 93k at 3.56m is a PPM of 26.05, and unlike most cheap picks his program improves — 93k → 105k → 91k → 113k. Phillip Tietz (4.98m, Mainz 05) (95k) and Christian Kofane (4.31m, Bayer Leverkusen) (86k, 3.2% owned) round out the mid-price options, and Patson Daka (2.93m, Hamburger SV) is the cheapest credible forward at 2.93m for 71k.

Deniz Undav (8.04m, VfB Stuttgart) is the premium alternative to Guirassy at 97k this round, rising to 112k in Runde 5 and 126k in Runde 7.

Bundes Manager Runde 4 captain picks (kaptajn)

The captain scores double in Bundes Manager, so the pick is simply the highest projection you own. Ranked:

1. Luis Diaz — 228k, so roughly 457k with the armband. The highest projection in the game, in the best fixture of the round, with 90 projected minutes. This is the pick.
2. Ismael Saibari — 217k. Almost the same ceiling, and a genuine differential captain at 5.3% ownership.
3. Lennart Karl — 143k. The third Bayern München attacking option if you own neither of the first two.

If you want the armband away from Bayern München, Serhou Guirassy (124k) is the best alternative, and he is the clear captain choice again in Runde 5 at 183k. Alphonso Davies at 132k is the rare defender with a real captaincy case this round. Do not captain Harry Kane here — his projection is 110k precisely because the model has him outside the projected starting eleven for this fixture.

Captaincy is a plan rather than a single pick: the model has Luis Diaz on top again in Runde 5 and 6 (160k and 148k), which strengthens the case for owning him rather than renting a captain each week. The live solve is on the Bundes Manager optimal teams page.

Who to sell before Runde 4

These are the widely-owned players whose Runde 4 collapses. The fee to move a cheap player is about 1% of his value — roughly 32k on a 3.25m defender, which is nothing against the points gap.

• Joane Gadou (3.25m, Borussia Dortmund) — owned by 31.5% and projected 28k, with Borussia Dortmund away at VfB Stuttgart in the tightest game on the card. He recovers to 61k in Runde 5, so this is a one-round sell at most.
• Tidiam Gomis (2.93m, RB Leipzig) — 31.2% owned, 32k projected. RB Leipzig are given a 28.9% win probability away at Bayer Leverkusen, and his Runde 6 figure is 19k.
• Yuito Suzuki (4.14m, Freiburg) — 14.4% owned and on 60k now, but the program falls away to 25k and 18k. This is the clearest multi-round downgrade in the pool, and you can trace it round by round on the player picks page.
• Felix Nmecha (4.45m, Borussia Dortmund) — 12.8% owned for 35k, and he never gets above 49k in the next four rounds. At 4.45m that is the weakest points-per-million of any widely-held midfielder.

Harry Kane (14.30m, Bayern München) is a different case. At 59.1% ownership he is the most-held player in the game, and the model has him at 110k for Runde 4 on about 41 minutes because he sits outside the projected XI. His program recovers immediately — 110k → 119k → 116k → 103k — and at 14.30m the transfer fee is around 143k each way. Hold him, do not captain him, and check the teamsheet before the deadline.

Transfer summary for Runde 4

A note on the club cap: Bundes Manager allows a maximum of four players from one club, so a full Bayern München block means choosing four of Luis Diaz, Ismael Saibari, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich and Manuel Neuer. A keeper-plus-defender pairing from the same side doubles down on the same clean sheet, which is exactly the correlation you want in a fixture priced at 44.7%.

More Bundes Manager analysis, round by round, is in our Bundes Manager preview hub, and the Bundes Manager Runde 3 preview shows how the picks looked last round. Market-implied odds for every fixture are on the market probabilities page.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Luis Diaz is the captain pick for Runde 4. He is projected 228k, the highest figure in the game, in Bayern München's home fixture against Union Berlin where the model gives an 88.6% win probability and 3.81 expected goals. Ismael Saibari (217k) is the differential alternative at 5.3% ownership, and Serhou Guirassy (124k) is the best captain outside Bayern München.

Should I sell Harry Kane before Runde 4?

No — hold him, but do not give him the armband. Harry Kane is projected 110k for Runde 4 because the model has him outside the projected starting eleven, and his figures recover to 119k in Runde 5 and 116k in Runde 6. At 14.30m the transfer fee is roughly 143k, which makes a one-round sell expensive.

Which budget players are best in Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Adam Daghim at 3.32m has the best points-per-million among midfielders (30.21, projected 100k), and Dzenan Pejcinovic at 3.56m is the best cheap forward on 93k. In defence the Hoffenheim back line is the cheapest route to a 27.1% clean sheet: Albian Hajdari at 2.96m and Mats Rots at 3.03m.

Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Tim Lemperle is the standout: 116k projected at 0.5% ownership, the highest-projected player in the game owned by under 1% of managers. Konrad Laimer (127k, 2.6%) gives you the best fixture of the round at low ownership, and Bambase Conte (87k at 3.13m) is effectively unowned.

Which goalkeeper should I pick for Runde 4?

Manuel Neuer is the top-projected keeper at 105k, backed by the round's best clean sheet probability of 44.7%. If you want to spend less, Loris Karius at 3.22m is projected 59k with a 24.9% clean sheet chance, and Oliver Baumann at 1.6% ownership is the differential option behind Hoffenheim's 27.1%.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.