Bundes Manager Runde 4: captain picks and best buys

Bundes Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Bundes Manager Runde 4 is a nine-match round that opens on Friday 18 September at 20:30 and finishes on Sunday evening. All 18 clubs in the game have a fixture, so nobody blanks — that fixture list was re-derived from the model pull behind this update on 17 September, and the projections below have moved since the last refresh. The biggest change is at the very top: Michael Olise (9.36m, FCB) is now the single highest projection in the game rather than level with Luis Diaz, and Hoffenheim have pulled up into the second-best three-round program on the board.

The more important thing about Runde 4 is what follows it. Runde 5 does not start until 9 October, so the transfer you make this week has to carry you through a three-week international break as well as through the round itself. That makes this a poor week to buy a one-fixture punt and a very good week to buy a program. Our Bundes Manager player picks carry the per-round numbers behind everything below.

Runde 4 to Runde 6: whose next three rounds are worth owning

The table is sorted on the three-round columns rather than on Runde 4, because that horizon is what your transfer fee has to pay back over. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare directly — no blanks and no doubles anywhere. The last column is expected clean sheets out of three matches, not a percentage.

Bayern München own the window outright: [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL is worth 10.46 expected goals across three rounds, 4.15 more than anyone else, and the home game with Union Berlin this week is the best single fixture in the round at 4.04 xG and 91% win probability. Everybody knows that, and the cap is four players per club — so the round is decided by which four you take and by what fills the other seven shirts.

Behind them the three programs to buy into are Hoffenheim ([A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG, 6.32 xG and 0.90 expected clean sheets, up from fourth on this table at the last update), Bayer Leverkusen ([H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF, 5.95 xG) and Borussia Dortmund ([A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU, 5.91 xG and the third-best defensive run in the game at 0.86). Dortmund are the interesting one: [A]STU this week is the hardest of their three and their numbers improve sharply in Runde 5, so a Dortmund buy is a buy for the program rather than for Friday. VfB Stuttgart sit level with Leverkusen on three-round xG, but two of their three are the tough home game with Dortmund and then two away days — own them for attacking volume, not for clean sheets (0.73).

At the other end, Union Berlin ([A]FCB → [H]ELV → [H]BVB) have the worst opening fixture in the game and the lowest three-round xG at 3.43; Paderborn ([H]HOF → [H]STU → [A]WER) and Elversberg ([A]S04 → [A]FCU → [H]FCA) are the other two programs to leave alone entirely. Cross-check any of it against the Bundes Manager schedule and the market probabilities before the deadline.

Goalkeepers for Runde 4

Manuel Neuer (5.68m, FCB) is the pick, and not only for this week. He leads every keeper in the game on Runde 4 (110k) and on the three-round total (261k), on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL, with a 48% clean-sheet chance on Friday — the highest number any defence carries in the round. At 19.4 points per million he is also better value than every keeper priced above 4.5m.

This is one of the spots where the round and the program disagree, and it is worth naming. Oliver Baumann (4.57m, HOF) out-scores Gregor Kobel (5.36m, BVB) by 24k this week, because Hoffenheim open at Paderborn while Dortmund start with the hardest of their three — and Kobel does have the better run behind it (80k in Runde 5, 73k in Runde 6). But Baumann's own Runde 5 number rose to 84k in this update, so he now finishes ahead over the three at 215k to 204k. If you are buying one keeper and holding him through the break, Baumann is the call on both counts this time: [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG against [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU, and 0.8m cheaper.

The budget answer has changed. Alexander Schwolow (3.16m, M05) is now the better cheap keeper over the window than Loris Karius (3.22m, S04): 59k this week and 166k across [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, against Karius at 60k and 140k on [H]ELV → [A]SCF → [H]M05, which fades after the opening home game. Schwolow returns 18.8 points per million and selling him again later costs about 32k, so he is the cheap keeper to hold through the break; Karius is the one to own only if you plan to trade him in Runde 5.

Defenders for Runde 4

The top four defenders in the game by both this round and the three-round total all play for Bayern München, and with a four-per-club cap you cannot have all of them plus Kane. Alphonso Davies (4.17m, FCB) is the one to start from: 141k this week, 321k over [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL, and 33.9 points per million — the best of any defender in the game. Konrad Laimer (5.14m, FCB) has edged ahead of him on the round itself (142k, 318k over three), Dayot Upamecano (4.34m, FCB) is at 126k and 303k, and Jonathan Tah (4.10m, FCB) is the cheapest route into the same program at 4.10m for 272k. Upamecano is the one most managers already have at 12.5% ownership; Laimer at 2.5% and Davies at 6.3% are the same fixtures at a fraction of the ownership.

Outside Munich, Hoffenheim are where the cheap clean sheets are, and their run has improved since the last update. Ozan Kabak (3.68m, HOF) is the pick at 86k and 233k over [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG — 0.90 expected clean sheets across the three is the second-best defensive run in the game, and his Runde 5 number (95k) is now higher than his Runde 4 one, which is the whole argument for buying before the break rather than after it. Mats Rots (3.03m, HOF) is the same program 0.7m cheaper at 23.9 points per million and 0.4% ownership, and Albian Hajdari (2.96m, HOF) is the third route in. Take two of the three at most: they share one clean sheet, and doubling up beyond that pays twice for the same event.

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.74m, STU) is the horizon buy of the position. He is only eighth among defenders on Runde 4 at 66k, because Stuttgart host Dortmund on Saturday, but he is fifth over the three at 237k on [H]BVB → [A]SCP → [A]HSV and he takes Stuttgart's penalties. His trajectory rises rather than falls: 66k → 95k → 77k. The reason to buy him now rather than after the break is that the good part of his run starts the moment this round ends, and the fee does not get cheaper while his price rises. Josha Vagnoman (3.89m, STU) is the cheaper version of the same idea (56k → 82k → 65k).

Two more worth naming. Matthias Ginter (3.98m, SCF) is the Runde 5 specialist: 55k this week on [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]B04, then 102k when Freiburg host Schalke, and he takes the penalties — a two-round hold you sell before the Leverkusen trip. And the differential almost nobody has is Jeremiaha Maluze (2.62m, FRA) at 0.1% ownership, 56k this week on [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]KOE for 2.62m. The template alternative is Anthony Caci (2.64m, M05), owned by 23.0% of managers, with 56k this week and 150k over [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04 — a perfectly good hold, just not a differential.

Midfielders for Runde 4

The Munich pair have separated since the last pull. Michael Olise (9.36m, FCB) now leads the game on Runde 4 at 239k and over the three rounds at 557k, against Luis Diaz (8.32m, FCB) at 236k and 530k, both on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL. Olise is the better asset on every horizon; Diaz is 1.0m cheaper and owned by 26.8% against Olise's 43.1%, which still makes him the better value and the better differential. If you can only afford one, Diaz is the buy and Olise is the upgrade.

Jamal Musiala (7.06m, FCB) remains the single biggest differential in the game. He is fourth overall on Runde 4 at 182k and fourth over the three at 434k on the same [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL program, and only 2.1% of managers own him, with the model holding him on 65 projected minutes. He does not have the minutes certainty of the other two — that is exactly why the ownership has not caught up, and it makes him a calculated risk rather than a captain pick.

Joshua Kimmich (5.27m, FCB) (130k / 313k) and Aleksandar Pavlovic (4.33m, FCB) (108k / 267k) are the cheaper ways into that same [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL program, and Pavlovic at 25.0 points per million is the better of the two on value. Remember the four-per-club cap before you build a whole midfield out of one squad.

Moussa Diaby (4.05m, B04) is still the cheap midfielder to own through the break. His [H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF program is one of the two best outside Munich and his trajectory goes up rather than down: 94k → 82k → 101k, 278k across the three, second only to Hlozek among midfielders outside Munich. At 0.5% ownership he is effectively a free differential.

Hoffenheim's midfield is the other cheap source and it reads better than it did at the last update. Adam Hlozek (3.90m, HOF) leads it at 112k this week and 284k over [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG, with Runde 5 now level at 112k rather than falling away. Adam Daghim (3.32m, HOF) returns 99k for 3.32m — 29.8 points per million, the best of any midfielder in the game — and Bambase Conte (3.13m, HOF) at 0.2% ownership is the deepest differential of the three (90k → 111k → 58k). All three fade in Runde 6, so the trip to Borussia Mönchengladbach is the round to sell into rather than through.

Kenan Karaman (4.07m, S04) is the pure one-rounder, and it is worth saying so plainly. 117k at home to Elversberg is the fifth-best midfield score in the round, but the rest of [H]ELV → [A]SCF → [H]M05 flattens straight afterwards (51k and 63k). At 4.07m the fee to buy and sell him again is about 41k each way, which is the only reason a single-fixture buy is defensible here — plan to sell in Runde 5 rather than drift into holding him.

Forwards for Runde 4

Harry Kane (14.30m, FCB) is the template and will stay it: 191k this week, 505k over [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL, penalties, and 59.1% ownership. He is also second only to Olise in Runde 6, so this is not a fixture-dependent hold — owning him is how you avoid losing ground rather than how you gain it.

Serhou Guirassy (8.63m, BVB) is the buy of the position, and the timing is the whole point. 112k away at Stuttgart this week is the weakest of his three — it is not a bad fixture, just his hardest — and then his program turns: [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU gives him 199k in Runde 5, the highest single-round projection any player carries in Runde 5 or Runde 6, and 120k in Runde 6 for 431k in total. Buying now means paying the fee once and owning the good part; waiting until after the break means paying it into a rising price.

Tim Lemperle (4.68m, HOF) is the best value forward on the board by a distance. 127k at Paderborn makes him the highest-projected forward in the round outside Munich, 331k over [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG puts him sixth in the whole game over the three, and 0.9% of managers own him. At 27.0 points per million he funds a premium somewhere else; his Runde 5 number is higher still at 132k and only Runde 6 fades to 72k, so treat the Gladbach trip as the sell round.

Deniz Undav (8.04m, STU) (96k / 328k, [H]BVB → [A]SCP → [A]HSV) and Patrik Schick (7.55m, B04) (109k / 320k, [H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF) are the premium alternatives, and both are better three-round assets than one-round ones. Schick takes Leverkusen's penalties, but the model has him on 67 projected minutes at a 0.89 start factor — the rotation risk is real, and it is why he is not the pick ahead of Guirassy.

Two budget forwards carry the window. Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.56m, STU) is the cheap route into the Stuttgart program [H]BVB → [A]SCP → [A]HSV at 3.56m: 87k → 114k → 90k, 292k in total, which beats every forward under 6.0m except Lemperle. Fabio Silva (4.39m, BVB) is the same idea in Dortmund colours (74k → 115k → 79k on [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU) at 5.3% ownership. And one gem: Terem Moffi (2.96m, HSV) returns 86k at home to 1. FC Köln on [H]KOE → [A]HOF → [H]STU for 2.96m — 29.0 points per million, the best of any forward in the game, at 0.3% ownership, with 63 projected minutes as the caveat.

Captain picks for Bundes Manager Runde 4

The Bundes Manager kaptajn scores double, so the armband is usually worth more than the transfer you make alongside it. The tie at the top has broken: Michael Olise (9.36m, FCB) now leads Luis Diaz (8.32m, FCB) on the round, both on [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL against the weakest opponent in the game.

1. Michael Olise (9.36m, FCB) — 239k, the highest projection in the game and 27k ahead of Diaz over the three rounds. The pick.
2. Luis Diaz (8.32m, FCB) — 236k, 3k behind on the round and 1.0m cheaper, on exactly the same fixture. If you own both, this is close to a coin flip.
3. Harry Kane (14.30m, FCB) — 191k, the safest floor of the three and the penalty taker.

The armband is a plan, not a pick. Across the next two rounds it moves: Serhou Guirassy (8.63m, BVB) is the top projection in Runde 5 at 199k on [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU, and Olise leads Runde 6 at 143k with Kane just behind at 141k. If you are choosing which premium to own rather than which to captain on Friday, that sequence matters more than the 3k gap at the top this week. The optimal teams for Bundes Manager page solves the full squad live against these same numbers.

Who to sell before Runde 4

Nathaniel Brown (4.63m, FCB) is still the clearest sale in the game, and the round to do it is this one. 48.4% of managers own him — more than own Olise — and the model has him on 17 projected minutes at a 0.00 start factor for 30k, in the best fixture of a [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL program no other club can match. If he does not return points in the home game against the lowest-ranked opponent in the round, he will not return them in the two rounds behind it either, and the 46k fee is the same in three weeks as it is now. Selling into the international break frees the money for a full three-round program instead of a shirt that does not play.

Robin Zentner (3.57m, M05) is the one to check next, because he costs you a shirt rather than points. 15.0% of managers still hold him and the model has him on zero projected minutes this week and a negative projection in each of the next two rounds of [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]S04, with Alexander Schwolow (3.16m, M05) projected as the Mainz keeper throughout. The why-now is simply that no fixture in this window changes it and the next round is three weeks away — every round you hold him is a round played a man short.

Niclas Füllkrug (4.36m, WER) is the sell-into-a-good-score case. 86k at home to Augsburg is genuinely good for 4.36m and he takes the penalties — this is not a bad week for him at all. But [H]FCA → [A]BVB → [H]SCP takes Werder to Dortmund next and he falls to 24k, the steepest one-round drop of any well-owned forward in the game, and 177k over the three is poor at this price. Take the Runde 4 score, sell into it, and put the money on a program instead; the 44k fee is identical either way.

Finally, three shirts that cannot score this week. Konstantinos Karetsas (3.17m, BVB) is flagged unavailable with a return date of 26 September, so on Dortmund's [A]STU → [H]WER → [A]FCU he cannot help you in Runde 4 at all — and 23.4% of managers are still carrying him. He should be available again for Runde 5 on 9 October, so the question is whether you want a dead shirt for one round rather than whether to sell permanently. Loic Badé (2.50m, B04) (13.9% owned, 8 projected minutes) and Lucas Vázquez (3.03m, B04) (10.0% owned, 6 projected minutes) are the same problem at Leverkusen on [H]RBL → [A]M05 → [H]SCF, and neither projection recovers in Runde 5 or Runde 6 (18k and 32k across the three). Check the predicted lineups for Bundes Manager before the Friday deadline in case anything else has moved.

Runde 3's picks and how these programs looked before they moved are in the Bundes Manager Runde 3 preview, and every round we have covered is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub. Our fantasy guides cover the scoring and transfer mechanics behind the holdet.dk managerspil.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Michael Olise. He projects 239k against Luis Diaz's 236k on the same [H]FCU → [A]FCA → [H]RBL program, and he is 27k ahead over the three rounds as well, so the tie the model showed at the last update has broken his way. Harry Kane at 191k is the safest floor if you want the penalty taker.

Which budget defenders are best for Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Ozan Kabak at 3.68m (86k) and Mats Rots at 3.03m (72k), both on Hoffenheim's [A]SCP → [H]HSV → [A]BMG — 0.90 expected clean sheets across the three rounds, the second-best defensive run in the game. Jonathan Tah at 4.10m is the cheapest way into the best program in the game.

Should I sell Nathaniel Brown before Runde 4?

Yes. He is owned by 48.4% of managers but projects only 30k on 17 minutes in the best fixture his club will play in the whole window, and the next round is three weeks away because of the international break. Selling now costs about 46k and buys a full three-round program instead.

Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 4?

Jamal Musiala at 2.1% ownership is the standout — 182k this week and 434k over three rounds on the best program in the game. Tim Lemperle (0.9%, 127k) and Moussa Diaby (0.5%, 278k across three) are the cheaper differentials, and Bambase Conte at 0.2% is the deepest of the lot.

Does Bundes Manager have a captain?

Yes. The Bundes Manager kaptajn scores double points, which is why the captain choice is usually worth more than the transfer beside it. You can compare every candidate's projection on our Bundes Manager player picks page.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.