Bundes Manager Runde 3: captain picks and best buys
Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 Runde 3 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Runde 3 of Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 closes on Friday evening, and the model has moved a long way since the last update. Two clubs have been handed the softest fixtures of the round, one of the most widely owned players in the game is now projected to score negative points, and the best captain option is no longer the obvious one. All 18 clubs play in this round, so there is no blank to work around — this is purely about picking the right eleven.
Every number below comes from the model's latest run, the same values you will find on the Bundes Manager player picks page.
Runde 3 fixtures: where the points are
Two fixtures dominate. Bayern München travel to Elversberg as the strongest favourite on the board and with the highest expected goals of any side in the round, while Borussia Dortmund host Paderborn with the best clean-sheet odds of the round. RB Leipzig at home to Hamburger SV is the third clear target.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | [A]Elversberg | 83% | 3.47 | 37% |
| Borussia Dortmund | [H]Paderborn | 77% | 2.81 | 42% |
| RB Leipzig | [H]Hamburger SV | 69% | 2.45 | 37% |
| Freiburg | [H]Borussia Mönchengladbach | 56% | 2.01 | 32% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | [A]Augsburg | 54% | 2.12 | 25% |
| Mainz 05 | [H]Eintracht Frankfurt | 47% | 1.87 | 24% |
At the other end, Paderborn (8% win probability, 0.87 expected goals) and Elversberg (6%, 0.99) are the two sides to avoid entirely, with Hamburger SV at 13% not far behind. The full round is on the Bundes Manager schedule, and the underlying odds are on the market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers for Runde 3
Gregor Kobel (5.22m, Borussia Dortmund) is the top-projected keeper in the game for this round at 91k xP, and the reason is simple: [H]Paderborn gives Dortmund a 42% clean sheet chance, the best of any side in Runde 3.
The value alternative is Alexander Schwolow (3.17m, Mainz 05) at 58k xP for [H]Eintracht Frankfurt — 18.21 points per million, the best ratio of any keeper in the top six. If you would rather spend the difference in attack, he is the way to do it.
The differential is Maarten Vandevoordt (5.16m, RB Leipzig) on 0.9% ownership, projected 79k xP behind a Leipzig side with a 37% clean sheet chance at home to Hamburger SV. Almost nobody owns him for what is close to the second-best goalkeeping fixture of the round.
Defenders for Runde 3
Jonathan Tah (4.10m, Bayern München) leads all defenders at 107k xP and also tops the six-round weighted table, which makes him the one defender worth buying as an investment rather than a one-round punt. Trajectory: 107k → 105k → 87k, 298k across three rounds.
Leipzig's back line is the best-value block of the round. David Raum (4.61m, RB Leipzig) (104k xP), Ridle Baku (4.49m, RB Leipzig) (100k) and Willi Orban (4.11m, RB Leipzig) (95k) all share the same 37% clean sheet chance, and Orban on 1.7% ownership is the least-owned of the three. Remember the cap of four players from any one club before you build around them.
From Dortmund, Daniel Svensson (4.14m, Borussia Dortmund) (92k xP) and Waldemar Anton (4.22m, Borussia Dortmund) (87k) both plug into that 42% clean sheet.
Two cheaper names stand out. Matthias Ginter (3.73m, Freiburg) at 80k xP takes Freiburg's penalties — his penalty share is 0.98, close to absolute — and a spot-kick taker in defence is a rare source of ceiling. And Mats Rots (2.99m, Hoffenheim) is the genuine hidden gem: 54k xP at 2.99m on 0.3% ownership. His fee is under 30k, cheap enough to buy for a round or two and move on.
Midfielders for Runde 3
Ismael Saibari (6.68m, Bayern München) is the highest-projected midfielder in the game at 175k xP, and at 5.3% ownership he is the standout differential of the round against a Bayern midfield everyone already owns. One caveat worth stating plainly: the model has him at 52 projected minutes, so he is expected to be substituted. That is already priced into the number, but it does add variance. Trajectory: 175k → 179k → 148k.
Michael Olise (9.30m, Bayern München) (170k xP, 42.7% owned) and Luis Diaz (8.26m, Bayern München) (169k xP) are the template picks and remain excellent; they just will not differentiate you. Joshua Kimmich (5.21m, Bayern München) at 105k xP is the cheapest route into the same fixture.
The value tier is where this round is won. Ezechiel Banzuzi (2.56m, RB Leipzig) returns 35.23 points per million — the best ratio of any midfielder in the game — at 90k xP. Derry Scherhant (3.13m, Freiburg) (100k xP, 31.98 PPM) and Ethan Nwaneri (3.06m, Borussia Dortmund) (96k xP, 31.41 PPM) are close behind, and Nwaneri walks into the Paderborn fixture. Afonso Moreira (3.58m, Bayer Leverkusen) (93k xP) and Ibrahim Maza (4.25m, Bayer Leverkusen) (95k xP) cover the Leverkusen trip to Augsburg.
Said El Mala (5.70m, 1. FC Köln) at 105k xP on 2.6% ownership is the forgotten name here, with Köln at home to Werder Bremen.
Forwards for Runde 3
Serhou Guirassy (8.48m, Borussia Dortmund) is the single highest-projected player in the game this round at 230k xP, hosting Paderborn on 0.94 expected goals of his own. Harry Kane (14.09m, Bayern München) is a whisker behind on 225k xP and takes Bayern's penalties — a 0.93 penalty share is as close to guaranteed as this data gets.
Patrik Schick (7.39m, Bayer Leverkusen) (146k xP, 0.83 penalty share) is the mid-price pick. But the differential forward is Christopher Nkunku (6.10m, RB Leipzig): 142k xP on just 1.8% ownership, in the third-best attacking fixture of the round. That is the widest gap between projection and ownership anywhere in the game right now.
Cheaper again, Ragnar Ache (4.52m, 1. FC Köln) (107k xP, 0.6% owned) and Moussa Sylla (3.51m, Schalke 04) (97k xP at only 3.51m) both offer real ceiling for very little. Phillip Tietz (4.86m, Mainz 05) (104k xP) and Igor Matanovic (5.89m, Freiburg) (112k xP) round out the options, and Maximilian Beier (5.16m, Borussia Dortmund) (121k xP) is the second way into the Paderborn fixture.
Best captain picks for Runde 3
The captain scores double in Bundes Manager Efterår 2026, so this is the biggest single decision of the round.
- Serhou Guirassy — 230k xP, roughly 461k captained. Dortmund host the weakest side in the round at a 77% win probability. He is the top projection in the game and the pick.
- Harry Kane — 225k xP. Fractionally lower, but the penalty share and Bayern's 3.47 expected goals give him the higher raw ceiling. A completely defensible alternative, and the safer one if you already own him.
- Ismael Saibari — 175k xP, the differential armband. Michael Olise (170k xP) is the more predictable version of the same idea.
If you want the model to build a whole side around that captain, the optimal teams for Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 page solves it live.
Hidden gems and differentials for Runde 3
- Christopher Nkunku (6.10m, RB Leipzig) — 142k xP on 1.8% ownership.
- Ismael Saibari (6.68m, Bayern München) — the top midfield projection in the game, owned by 5.3%.
- Mats Rots (2.99m, Hoffenheim) — 54k xP at 2.99m, 0.3% owned.
- Ragnar Ache (4.52m, 1. FC Köln) — 107k xP, 0.6% owned.
- Maarten Vandevoordt (5.16m, RB Leipzig) — 79k xP, 0.9% owned.
- Tim Lemperle (4.63m, Hoffenheim) — 86k xP, 0.5% owned.
Confirm the starting elevens before the deadline on the predicted lineups page — several of these are rotation-sensitive.
Who to sell before Runde 3
This is the most important section of the round, because two heavily owned players simply cannot score.
Konstantinos Karetsas (3.18m, Borussia Dortmund) is owned by 41.6% of managers and is unavailable, with a return date of 19 September. The model has him at -5k for Runde 3 and -5k for Runde 4 — negative, not zero. Selling him is the highest-value transfer available to most managers this week.
Robin Zentner (3.58m, Mainz 05) is the same story at 21.5% ownership: unavailable, and projected -5k in every round from here to Runde 8, because Alexander Schwolow has taken the gloves at Mainz 05. There is no route back into the side in this data.
Loic Badé (2.51m, Bayer Leverkusen) (16.7% owned) has dropped out of the Leverkusen side — 12 projected minutes and 16k xP. Tidiam Gomis (2.67m, RB Leipzig) (35.8% owned) is now a substitute on a 0.41 starter factor, and his programme falls away after this round: 70k → 38k → 45k.
Two to watch rather than sell outright: Nathaniel Brown (4.59m, Bayern München), owned by 50.6% but projected only 42 minutes, and Antonio Nusa (4.70m, RB Leipzig), who is excellent this round at 115k xP but drops to 53k in Runde 4 — take the points now and move him on.
The plan beyond Runde 3
Because every transfer costs a percentage of the player's value, the cheap picks above are the ones you can rotate freely — a defender at 2.99m costs about 30k to move, while shifting a premium forward costs several times that. Build the expensive end of the side around players whose programme holds up: Jonathan Tah tops the weighted six-round defensive table, and Ismael Saibari and Luis Diaz lead the midfield over the same window.
For the full picture, compare every player on the player picks page, and read back over our Bundes Manager Runde 2 preview to see how the programme has shifted. More rounds are collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub, and our fantasy football guides cover the scoring system in depth.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 3?
Serhou Guirassy is the model's top captain pick for Runde 3 at 230k xP, roughly 461k with the armband. Dortmund host Paderborn as 77% favourites, the softest fixture in the round. Harry Kane at 225k xP is the closest alternative and carries Bayern's penalties.
Should I sell Konstantinos Karetsas before Runde 3?
Yes. He is unavailable until 19 September and the model projects -5k for Runde 3 and -5k for Runde 4 — negative points, not zero. With 41.6% of managers still holding him, moving him on is the clearest gain available this week.
Which budget midfielders are best for Runde 3?
Ezechiel Banzuzi at 2.56m leads on value with 35.23 points per million and 90k xP at home to Hamburger SV. Derry Scherhant (3.13m, 100k xP) and Ethan Nwaneri (3.06m, 96k xP) are the next best.
Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 3?
Christopher Nkunku is the standout at 142k xP on only 1.8% ownership. Ismael Saibari is the highest-projected midfielder in the game at 175k xP yet owned by just 5.3%, and Mats Rots offers 54k xP from defence at 0.3% ownership.
Which goalkeeper should I pick for Runde 3?
Gregor Kobel at 91k xP, with Dortmund holding the round's best clean sheet chance at 42%. If you need the money elsewhere, Alexander Schwolow at 3.17m returns 18.21 points per million. Avoid Robin Zentner, who is unavailable.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.