Bundes Manager Runde 3: best buys and hidden gems

Bundes Manager Runde 3 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Runde 3 of Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 has no marquee fixture, and that is exactly what makes it interesting. There is no single match every manager will build around, so the round is won by whoever picks the right two or three good fixtures - and by whoever gets out of Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig before Runde 4, when both programmes fall off a cliff. The model was refreshed this morning and every projection below comes from it. The deadline is Friday 11 September at 20:30, with Union Berlin v Schalke 04 kicking off at the same moment.

Runde 3 fixtures: who the model likes

Seven of the eighteen clubs are projected under a 30% win probability this Runde, so the target list is short. Bayern München travel to Elversberg as an 80% favourite with 3.23 projected goals - the biggest attacking number of the round. Borussia Dortmund at home to Paderborn is the best all-round fixture: 77% win probability, 2.83 projected goals and a 41% clean sheet chance, the highest in the Runde.

The trap is the shape of the next few rounds. Borussia Dortmund go [H]Paderborn then [A]VfB Stuttgart at 36%, and RB Leipzig go [H]Hamburger SV then [A]Bayer Leverkusen at 26%. Both are one-Runde spikes. Bayer Leverkusen, by contrast, run 56% - 51% - 43% - 60% - 42% - 48% across Runde 3 to 8, and Bayern München never drop below 61% in that window. If you want players you can keep, that is where they are. The full picture is on the Bundes Manager schedule and the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers for Runde 3

Gregor Kobel (5.22m, Borussia Dortmund) - the best single-Runde keeper on the board at 89k, backed by that 41% clean sheet chance against Paderborn. His weighted six-Runde score of 252k is only mid-table, though, because Borussia Dortmund hit a 19% fixture in Runde 8. Buy him for the fixture, not for the season.

Manuel Neuer (5.68m, Bayern München) - 97k this Runde and 314k weighted across six - the highest of any keeper in the game. He is the only goalkeeper here whose fixture list never really turns, which is worth the extra 0.5m over Gregor Kobel if you want to stop rotating the position.

Cheap option: Marvin Schwäbe (3.15m, 1. FC Köln) - 56k for a 26% clean sheet chance at home to Werder Bremen, and a PPM of 17.9 that beats every premium keeper in the game. On 4.6% ownership he is a genuine differential, and his weighted score of 196k means he is not just a one-Runde patch. The alternative at a similar price is the far more popular Robin Zentner (3.59m, Mainz 05) on 25.2% ownership, whose 202k weighted total is almost identical - so the cheaper, less-owned keeper is doing the same job for less money.

Defenders for Runde 3

Ramy Bensebaini (4.99m, Borussia Dortmund) - 97k, the top-scoring defender of the Runde, and the reason is penalties - he is Borussia Dortmund's designated taker, on top of Borussia Dortmund's 41% clean sheet chance against Paderborn. The catch is the same as with Gregor Kobel: his Runde 4 projection drops to 43k. Treat this as a two-Runde trade at most.

Konrad Laimer (5.15m, Bayern München) - 86k now and 269k weighted, the best six-Runde defensive score outside a penalty taker. He is projected for 68 minutes at a 0.74 starter factor, which is the honest risk with Bayern München defenders - the fixtures are permanently good, the minutes are not guaranteed.

Dayot Upamecano (4.29m, Bayern München) - 77k and 246k weighted at 11.9% ownership - the safer Bayern München defender, cheaper than Konrad Laimer and projected for a similar share of the clean sheets.

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.57m, VfB Stuttgart) - 66k in Runde 3 is unremarkable, but the trajectory is the point: 66k, 62k, 85k, 80k, 77k, 51k, for 253k weighted. He takes VfB Stuttgart's penalties and VfB Stuttgart have the best improving run in the league - [A]Paderborn at 52%, [A]Hamburger SV at 49%, then [H]Borussia Mönchengladbach at 60%. If you buy one defender to keep, buy this one.

Matthias Ginter (3.73m, Freiburg) - 77k at a PPM of 20.6, and he is Freiburg's penalty taker with a 98% share - a defender on spot-kicks at under 4m is the cheapest ceiling in the position. Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach with a 32% clean sheet chance.

Budget pick: Tom Rothe (2.50m, Union Berlin) - 68k off the cheapest defensive price bracket in the game, a PPM of 27.4 - the best of any defender - and 86 projected minutes at a 0.93 starter factor. He is on 0.6% ownership. At 2.50m the trade fee is about 25k, so buying him purely for this Runde's home fixture against Schalke 04 and moving on afterwards costs almost nothing. His team-mate Josip Juranovic (2.62m, Union Berlin) is the same idea at 55k and a 21.1 PPM.

The RB Leipzig trio of David Raum (4.61m, 90k), Ridle Baku (4.49m, 85k) and Willi Orban (4.11m, 84k) all land in the Runde 3 top five for defenders on the back of that 37% clean sheet chance against Hamburger SV. All three then fall to roughly a third of that in Runde 4 away at Bayer Leverkusen. They are legitimate one-Runde buys - just plan the exit at the same time you plan the entry.

Midfielders for Runde 3

Luis Diaz (8.26m, Bayern München) - 153k this Runde and 497k weighted, the highest midfield total in the game. Projected for 0.43 goals and 0.26 assists in a single match at Elversberg. On 28.3% ownership he is not a differential, but he is the most reliable midfield points source available.

Michael Olise (9.30m, Bayern München) - 150k and 482k weighted at 42.8% ownership - the template pick, and a full 1.04m more expensive than Luis Diaz for slightly fewer projected points. If you own one of the two, own the cheaper one.

Ibrahim Maza (4.25m, Bayer Leverkusen) - 98k, a 23.1 PPM and 291k weighted, on 4.4% ownership. He is projected for 85 minutes at a 0.95 starter factor, which is as nailed as a sub-4.5m midfielder gets, and Bayer Leverkusen have the steadiest fixture run in the league. This is the best value-to-security combination in the position.

Malik Tillman (4.05m, Bayer Leverkusen) - 87k and 272k weighted at 4.2% ownership - the same Bayer Leverkusen fixture profile as Ibrahim Maza at 0.2m less. Owning both is legitimate; the club cap in this game is four players per team, so there is room.

Joshua Kimmich (5.21m, Bayern München) - 90k and 274k weighted, with 0.22 projected assists and a share of Bayern München's 37% clean sheet chance - the defensive-midfield route into the Bayern München fixture list, and a steadier minutes profile than the attackers around him.

Budget pick: Afonso Moreira (3.58m, Bayer Leverkusen) - 95k at a 26.6 PPM and 266k weighted. Under 3.6m for a projected 80 minutes, 0.25 goals and 0.21 assists is the standout budget midfield price in Runde 3. He is on 14.1% ownership, so this one is no longer a secret - but the price has not caught up.

Also worth a look: Antonio Nusa (4.70m, RB Leipzig) at 100k is the second-best midfield score of the Runde, but he shares the RB Leipzig problem - 47k in Runde 4. Compare the whole position on the Bundes Manager player picks page.

Forwards for Runde 3

Harry Kane (14.09m, Bayern München) - 195k, the highest projection of any player in Runde 3, and 616k weighted over six. He takes the penalties and is projected for 0.75 goals in a single match. At 59.9% ownership he is the closest thing this game has to a default, and the model gives no reason to be different.

Serhou Guirassy (8.48m, Borussia Dortmund) - 176k, second only to Harry Kane, off a 77% home fixture and 0.68 projected goals. But Runde 4 drops him to 86k. He is the clearest example of the round's central decision: a huge one-Runde score that costs about 85k to trade in and the same again to trade out.

Patrik Schick (7.39m, Bayer Leverkusen) - 151k now and 447k weighted - the best combination of ceiling and continuity below Harry Kane. He takes Bayer Leverkusen's penalties with a 93% share, is projected for 84 minutes at a 0.94 starter factor, and his fixtures never collapse the way Serhou Guirassy's do. On 18% ownership, he is the forward to buy if you only make one move.

Hidden gem: Ragnar Ache (4.52m, 1. FC Köln) - 113k in Runde 3 and 352k weighted, at 0.6% ownership. That is a top-six projection for the Runde from a player virtually nobody owns. He is projected for 0.48 goals in 1. FC Köln's home fixture against Werder Bremen, on 69 minutes at a 0.94 starter factor, and his PPM of 25.2 is nearly double Harry Kane's. 1. FC Köln also improve later: [H]Borussia Mönchengladbach at 45% in Runde 5 and [H]Schalke 04 at 52% in Runde 7.

Second gem: Moussa Sylla (3.51m, Schalke 04) - 92k this Runde on 1% ownership, and then 112k in Runde 4 when Schalke 04 host Elversberg - his best fixture of the six. A 26.2 PPM and 288k weighted from a sub-3.6m forward is the kind of pick that decides a league table, because almost nobody else has it.

Budget pick: Emmanuel Latte Lath (2.61m, Union Berlin) - 82k at a PPM of 31.6, the highest of any player in the game at any price. He is projected for 60 minutes and 0.29 goals at home to Schalke 04. His Runde 4 is 22k away at Bayern München, so this is explicitly a one-Runde buy - and at 2.61m the fee to get in and out is about 26k in total. Marin Ljubicic (2.98m, Union Berlin) is the same fixture at 88k and a 29.5 PPM on 0.2% ownership.

Two forwards to buy next Runde rather than this one: Jonathan Burkardt (6.02m, Eintracht Frankfurt) is only 77k here - Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Mainz 05 as a 29% underdog - but he jumps to 107k in Runde 4 and 116k in Runde 8, for 322k weighted. Deniz Undav (8.05m, VfB Stuttgart) is 84k now and 103k, 96k and 110k across Rundes 5 to 7. Both are worth waiting one Runde for.

Differentials: where Runde 3 is actually won

Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Konstantinos Karetsas are on almost everybody's team, so owning them protects your position rather than improving it. The gap opens in the remaining squad places. The four lowest-owned players with a genuine Runde 3 case:

Derry Scherhant deserves a note of caution the others do not: his 29.0 PPM is the highest of any midfielder, but his Runde 7 projection is only 29k. He is a two-Runde pick. Ragnar Ache and Ibrahim Maza are the two you can hold. Check the expected starting elevens on the predicted lineups page before committing to any of the cheaper names - minutes are what separate these picks from the players priced beside them.

Sell and avoid before Runde 3

Nathaniel Brown (4.59m, Bayern München) - 51% ownership makes him the second most-owned player in the game, and the model projects him for 41 minutes at a 0.59 starter factor. Dayot Upamecano costs 0.3m less, plays more, and scores 77k to Nathaniel Brown's 63k. This is the clearest upgrade available in Runde 3.

Joane Gadou (3.14m, Borussia Dortmund) - 29.5% ownership and 138k weighted - the worst six-Runde total of any widely-owned player. His trajectory reads 61k, 23k, 42k, 34k, 34k, 6k. The Runde 3 fixture is fine; everything after it is not.

Tidiam Gomis (2.67m, RB Leipzig) - 36.3% ownership, 72k this Runde and 31k the next, on a 0.49 starter factor and 38 projected minutes. If you are holding him for the Hamburger SV fixture, sell immediately afterwards.

Two more to move on from: Loic Badé (2.51m, Bayer Leverkusen) is on 17.1% ownership for 102k weighted, which is poor even by cheap-defender standards and unusual given how good Bayer Leverkusen's fixtures are - the money is better spent on Ibrahim Maza or Malik Tillman from the same club. Ezechiel Banzuzi (2.56m, RB Leipzig) drops from 52k to 21k in Runde 4 and never recovers past 36k in the window.

Avoid buying into Elversberg, Paderborn and Hamburger SV this Runde entirely - all three are projected under a 15% win probability on the market probabilities page, and Paderborn's 0.90 projected goals at Borussia Dortmund is the lowest attacking number on the board.

Planning Runde 3 into Runde 4

The trades that look obvious this Runde - Ramy Bensebaini, Gregor Kobel, the RB Leipzig defenders, Emmanuel Latte Lath - all share a Runde 4 problem, and the trade fee is 1% of value each way. On a 5m player that is 50k in and 50k out, against a projection that falls from 90k to 40k. On a 2.5m player it is 25k each way, which is why the cheap one-Runde buys are the ones that genuinely pay.

The players whose Runde 4 improves or holds: Ibrahim Maza (98k to 78k), Malik Tillman (87k to 77k), Moussa Sylla (92k to 112k), Jonathan Burkardt (77k to 107k), Ragnar Ache (114k to 95k) and every Bayern München attacker. Build the core there and rotate the cheap slots around the fixtures, using the Runde-by-Runde schedule to time the exits.

For the exact optimal eleven under the 53.0m budget and the four-per-club cap, the solver on the optimal teams page runs live against these same numbers. You can read last week's analysis in the Bundes Manager Runde 2 preview, and every round we have covered is collected in the Bundes Manager preview hub. New to holdet.dk managerspil? Start with our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who are the best buys in Bundes Manager Runde 3?

Harry Kane (14.09m, Bayern München) at 195k, Serhou Guirassy (8.48m, Borussia Dortmund) at 176k and Patrik Schick (7.39m, Bayer Leverkusen) at 151k are the three highest projections of Runde 3. Patrik Schick is the best of the three to keep, because Bayer Leverkusen hold a win probability between 42% and 60% for the next six Rundes while Borussia Dortmund drop to 36% in Runde 4. Below the premiums, Ibrahim Maza (4.25m, Bayer Leverkusen) at 98k and Ragnar Ache (4.52m, 1. FC Köln) at 114k are the best value buys on the board.

Is there a captain in Bundes Manager Runde 3?

No - Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 has no captain and no chips, so there is no armband decision to make and no Free Hit to save. Every player scores his own points, which is why the Runde comes down to squad selection and the 1%-of-value trade fee rather than to a single doubled-up pick.

Which budget players are best for Bundes Manager Runde 3?

Emmanuel Latte Lath (2.61m, Union Berlin) has the highest points-per-million of any player in the game at 31.6, projected for 82k at home to Schalke 04. Tom Rothe (2.50m, Union Berlin) is the best budget defender at 68k and a 27.4 PPM with 86 projected minutes, and Afonso Moreira (3.58m, Bayer Leverkusen) is the best cheap midfielder at 95k. All three cost roughly 25-36k in trade fees, so buying them for a single good fixture is a sound move.

Should I sell Nathaniel Brown in Bundes Manager Runde 3?

Yes. He is projected for 41 minutes at a 0.59 starter factor and 63k this Runde, yet 51% of managers own him. Dayot Upamecano (4.29m, Bayern München) costs 0.3m less, scores 77k in Runde 3 and 246k across the six-Runde window against Nathaniel Brown's 202k - the same club, the same fixtures, more minutes and more points.

Best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 3?

Ragnar Ache (4.52m, 1. FC Köln) is the standout at 0.6% ownership and a 114k projection - a top-six score for the Runde from a player almost nobody owns. Moussa Sylla (3.51m, Schalke 04) at 1.0% ownership is the second pick, projected for 92k now and 112k in Runde 4. Both are under 4.6m, so they fit alongside the premium forwards rather than instead of them.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool