Bundes Manager Runde 2: best buys and differentials

Bundes Manager Runde 2 preview: best buys, hidden gems and who to sell

Runde 2 of Bundes Manager Efterår 2026 opens on Friday 4 September with VfB Stuttgart at home to 1. FC Köln, and the round is shaped by one fixture more than any other: newly promoted Schalke 04 host Bayern München on Saturday evening. The model now gives Bayern an 84% win probability and 3.29 expected goals - the most lopsided game on the card by a distance.

Everyone will own two or three Bayern players. That is not where the round is decided. Harry Kane sits in 59.9% of squads and Michael Olise in 43.0%, so holding them keeps you level rather than ahead. The edge is in the other eight or nine slots - which cheap Stuttgart, Gladbach and Frankfurt players you back, and which heavily owned names you get out of before their minutes or their fixtures collapse.

Runde 2 fixtures: where the goals and clean sheets are

The programmes behind those numbers matter as much as the single week. Bayern's next three are [A]Schalke 04 → [A]Elversberg → [H]Union Berlin at 84%, 82% and 81% win probability. That is the cleanest three-round window the Bundesliga produces, and it is the argument for spending up on Bayern now. You may hold up to four players from one club in this game, so a genuine Bayern block is legal - and four is the hard ceiling, however good the fixtures look.

Leverkusen follow with [H]Union Berlin → [A]Augsburg → [H]RB Leipzig (67%, 57%, 54%) - never spectacular, always above average. Stuttgart are the opposite: 62% at home this week, then just 36% away at Hoffenheim in Runde 3. Treat Stuttgart assets as a one-round play. Borussia Dortmund invert it again - only 44% at Hoffenheim now, then 77% at home to Paderborn.

You can check every one of these numbers on the Bundes Manager schedule and the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers in Runde 2: pay up or go cheap

Manuel Neuer (5.59m, BAY) - 106k xP, the best goalkeeper score in the round on a 43% clean sheet chance at Schalke. Bayern conceded just 1.24 expected goals per game in the Bundesliga last season, second only to Dortmund's 1.17, and their next three fixtures sustain it. Weighted six-round total: 347k.

If you would rather put that 5.59m into an attacker, the value route is Fabian Bredlow (3.99m, STU) at 71k on a 29% clean sheet chance against Köln - 17.8 points per million against Neuer's 19.0, for 1.60m less. Mark Flekken (4.51m, LEV) at 79k and a 34% clean sheet chance is the sensible middle, and he is the only one of the three whose fixtures do not fall away after Runde 3.

The one to move off is covered in the sell section below - a quarter of the game is still holding a keeper with a 25% clean sheet chance.

Defenders for Runde 2: Bayern's back line, and a 2.48m gem

Dayot Upamecano (4.25m, BAY) is the best defender in the game right now - 109k xP, a 42% clean sheet chance, 88 projected minutes and 25.8 points per million. He played 3,710 minutes last season, so the minutes risk that hangs over the rest of that back line does not apply to him. Trajectory: 109k → 99k → 94k → 80k, weighted 332k over six rounds.

Konrad Laimer (5.08m, BAY) is the attacking version at 101k - 5 goals and 13 assists from 3,899 minutes last season - but he is now projected for 78 minutes rather than a full game, which costs him the top spot he held a week ago. Alphonso Davies (4.05m, BAY) scores 93.6k on 63 projected minutes and Jonathan Tah (4.04m, BAY) 86.7k on 64; both are excellent per-minute, both carry real rotation risk in a 3.29-goal fixture. Check them on predicted lineups before the Friday deadline rather than assuming.

Outside Bayern, Kevin Diks (3.98m, BMG) at 89.6k is the pick. He is Gladbach's penalty taker with a 98% penalty share, projected for 88 minutes at home to Elversberg, and he scored 5 goals from 5.10 expected goals last season - a defender with a genuine goal threat, owned by only 3.8%. Josha Vagnoman (3.59m, STU) gives you 84.9k at 23.6 points per million on a nailed 90 minutes against Köln.

Budget defender: Philipp Sander (2.48m, BMG) - 59.7k xP at 24.1 points per million, 88 projected minutes and 0.4% ownership. His fee is under 25k. Even as a pure one-round buy against Elversberg he pays for himself several times over, and the money he frees is what lets you carry a 14m striker.

Matthias Ginter (3.62m, FRB) deserves a mention as a two-round hold: 71.8k now at Paderborn, then 93.0k in Runde 3, and he has taken over Freiburg's penalties at a 98% share off 4,636 minutes of near-ever-present football.

Midfielders for Runde 2: three Bayern scores above 165k

Luis Diaz (8.23m, BAY) - 192k xP and the best six-round weighted total of any midfielder at 623k. He produced 25 goals and 19 assists in 3,968 minutes last season, which is 0.89 expected goal involvements per 90. Trajectory: 192k → 183k → 184k across the Schalke, Elversberg and Union run. If you buy one expensive midfielder, this is it.

Michael Olise (9.27m, BAY) follows at 177k and 583k weighted. He is the better creator - 28.06 expected assists last season and 0.97 expected goal involvements per 90 - but he costs 1.04m more and is owned by 43.0% against Diaz's 28.5%. On price and on ownership, Diaz is the better buy.

The one that has moved most this week is Ismael Saibari (6.67m, BAY) - 165k xP, up from a peripheral projection a few days ago as his expected role grew. He scored 18 goals and added 8 assists in 2,751 minutes last season (0.77 expected goal involvements per 90) and now projects for 67 minutes. That is the caveat: a 0.77 starter factor is real rotation risk, so treat him as the third Bayern midfielder rather than the first.

Joshua Kimmich (5.19m, BAY) at 99.6k is the cheap, minutes-safe route into the same fixtures - 85 projected minutes, a 43% clean sheet chance and 16.21 expected assists last season.

Value pick: Afonso Moreira (3.48m, LEV) - 110k xP at 31.6 points per million, 83 projected minutes at home to Union Berlin, and 0.56 expected goal involvements per 90 last season. Ibrahim Maza (4.04m, LEV) gives you 105k from the same fixture with slightly better minutes security, and both are backed by a Leverkusen side that ran +0.55 non-penalty expected goal difference per game last season.

Hidden gem: Tiago Tomás (3.50m, STU) - 118k xP at 33.9 points per million, the best value score of any midfielder in the round, and owned by just 1.0% of squads. He scored 8 goals in 1,615 minutes last season (0.55 expected goal involvements per 90) and Stuttgart are 62% favourites at home. His 62 projected minutes are the price of admission. Grischa Prömel (3.96m, STU) at 97.2k is the full-90 alternative from the same fixture at 0.5% ownership, and Jamie Leweling (4.98m, STU) gives you 101k on 90 nailed minutes.

Budget midfielder: Hugo Bolin (3.00m, BMG) - 91.2k xP at 30.4 points per million, 85 projected minutes and 0.8% ownership. Under 30k in fee for one of the five best value scores in the round.

Antonio Nusa (4.71m, LEI) and Brajan Gruda (4.58m, LEI) both score around 100-105k this week and improve again in Runde 3 at home to Hamburger SV - but Leipzig then travel to Leverkusen at 24% and to Bayern in Runde 6, where their scores fall to 28k and 26k. Buy for two rounds, plan the exit.

Forwards for Runde 2: Kane is the highest score in the game

Harry Kane (14.06m, BAY) - 227k xP, comfortably the highest projection of any player in Runde 2, and a weighted 707k over six rounds that no one else comes close to. He takes Bayern's penalties at a 91% share, and last season he scored 68 goals from 50.66 expected goals in 4,639 minutes - 1.14 expected goal involvements per 90. The 14.06m on one of eleven players is a big share of any squad, and his fee alone is 141k, so he is not a casual buy. But at this projection the template is right: if you own him, keep him; if you do not, he is the strongest single argument for restructuring the rest of your side around him.

Patrik Schick (7.12m, LEV) - 166k xP at 23.3 points per million, Leverkusen's penalty taker at a 93% share, and 27 goals from 26.82 expected goals last season. His weighted 499k is the most stable non-Bayern forward line in the game, because Leverkusen never dip below a 46% win probability across the next four rounds.

Deniz Undav (7.99m, STU) is the differential premium at 146k and only 7.6% ownership - 25 goals and 15 assists last season at 0.86 expected goal involvements per 90. His Runde 3 falls to 92k when Stuttgart travel to Hoffenheim, so this is a fixture-timed buy, not a season hold.

Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.48m, STU) remains the best ratio in the game: 129k for 3.48m is 37.0 points per million. He scored 11 goals from 9.87 expected goals in 1,589 minutes last season, so the finishing is real rather than a small-sample fluke. Ownership has climbed to 8.0%, which is still low enough to matter. Treat him as a one- or two-round buy - the fee is 35k against a 129k projection.

Serhou Guirassy (8.23m, DOR) is a Runde 3 buy rather than a Runde 2 buy. Dortmund are 44% away at Hoffenheim now (133k), then 77% at home to Paderborn where he jumps to 213k. His weighted 531k is second only to Kane among forwards. Maximilian Beier (5.11m, DOR) follows the same curve - 90k then 135k - at a third of the price.

Value forwards: Younes Ebnoutalib (3.48m, EIN) at 103k and 29.6 points per million is the standout, off 13 goals in 1,549 minutes last season against an Augsburg side that conceded 1.88 expected goals per game. Tim Kleindienst (4.47m, BMG) gives you 102k at home to Elversberg, and Daka (2.98m, HSV) is the sub-3m option at 78k with a 92% penalty share.

Compare the full list on the Bundes Manager player picks page. The live solver builds the exact best eleven under its own spending ceiling on the optimal teams page, which is the authoritative version of everything above.

Who to sell before Runde 2

Nathaniel Brown (4.56m, BAY) - 55.3% owned. The clearest sell in the game, and the case has got stronger this week: his projected minutes have fallen to 36 on a 0.42 starter factor. He still scores 85.5k on the Schalke fixture, but Upamecano scores 109k on 88 minutes for 0.31m less, and Brown's weighted six-round total of 202k trails Upamecano's 332k by a third. Same club, same fixtures, better player, lower price.

Tidiam Gomis (2.67m, LEI) - 35.2% owned. 36 projected minutes and 62k. His Runde 4 and Runde 6 read 30k and 20k as Leipzig visit Leverkusen and Bayern. A 27k fee buys you Bolin at 91k instead.

Joane Gadou (3.10m, DOR) - 29.5% owned. 43.5k, the weakest return of any heavily owned player in the round. Dortmund travel to Hoffenheim with only a 21% clean sheet chance, and he has 0.82 expected goals to his name across 2,564 minutes - no attacking upside to offset it.

Robin Zentner (3.59m, MAI) - 26.0% owned. 58.5k on a 25% clean sheet chance away at Hamburger SV. Bredlow costs 0.40m more and returns 71k on a better fixture.

Loic Badé (2.48m, LEV) - 22.7% owned. 27 projected minutes and 31k. He is priced as a bargain and no longer plays like one; Sander costs the same and doubles the projection.

Anthony Caci (2.57m, MAI) - 25.3% owned at 51.6k is the fifth cut, and for the same money the Gladbach and Stuttgart defenders above are 30-60% better this week.

One to hold rather than sell: Konstantinos Karetsas (3.14m, DOR) - 45.1% owned scores only 73.8k this week, but he jumps to 116k at home to Paderborn in Runde 3 off 15 assists last season. Sell him after that fixture, not before it.

Summary: the Runde 2 shape

Kane at 227k is the single biggest number on the board and the template is not wrong to hold him. The rank is won underneath: Tiago Tomás at 3.50m, Bolin at 3.00m, Ebnoutalib at 3.48m and Sander at 2.48m together cost 12.45m and project 372k - roughly the return of two premiums for a quarter of the outlay. Fund them by moving off Nathaniel Brown, Tidiam Gomis and Joane Gadou, who between them sit in more than 120% of squads combined and deliver 191k.

More rounds and more analysis in the Bundes Manager preview hub, our wider fantasy football guides, and the same Bundesliga model applied to Bundesliga Fantasy player picks.

Catching up? Read the Bundes Manager Runde 1 preview to see how the picks have moved.

FAQ

Who are the best buys in Bundes Manager Runde 2?

Harry Kane (14.06m, BAY) at 227k xP is the highest projection of any player in the round and has the best six-round weighted total in the game at 707k. Luis Diaz (8.23m, BAY) at 192k is the best midfielder, and Patrik Schick (7.12m, LEV) at 166k is the most reliable forward outside Bayern. The best value buy is Dzenan Pejcinovic (3.48m, STU) at 129k, which is 37.0 points per million.

Who should I captain in Bundes Manager Runde 2?

The captain scores double in Bundes Manager, so the armband goes on the biggest number you own. Harry Kane (14.06m, BAY) at 227k is the highest projection of the round, and Luis Diaz (8.23m, BAY) at 192k is the captain pick for anyone who does not own Kane, with Patrik Schick (7.12m, LEV) at 166k the best option outside Bayern. There are no chips, so points per million still decides most transfers, and it is why cheap high scorers like Tiago Tomás and Hugo Bolin matter here.

What are the best differentials for Bundes Manager Runde 2?

Tiago Tomás (3.50m, STU) is the standout - 118k xP at 33.9 points per million and only 1.0% ownership. Hugo Bolin (3.00m, BMG) is at 0.8% with 91k, Grischa Prömel (3.96m, STU) at 0.5% with 97k, and Philipp Sander (2.48m, BMG) at 0.4% with 60k. At the top end, Deniz Undav (7.99m, STU) is the differential premium: 146k with just 7.6% ownership.

Who should I sell before Bundes Manager Runde 2?

Nathaniel Brown (4.56m, BAY) is the priority. He is in 55.3% of squads but is now projected for only 36 minutes, and his six-round weighted total of 202k trails the cheaper Dayot Upamecano's 332k. Tidiam Gomis (2.67m, LEI) at 36 projected minutes and Joane Gadou (3.10m, DOR) at 43.5k are the other clear exits, with Loic Badé (2.48m, LEV) close behind on 27 projected minutes.

Which team has the best fixtures in Bundes Manager right now?

Bayern München, comfortably. Their next three rounds are away to Schalke 04 (84% win probability), away to Elversberg (82%) and at home to Union Berlin (81%). They also scored 2.96 expected goals and conceded 1.24 per game in the Bundesliga last season, a non-penalty expected goal difference of +1.64 that no other side came within a goal of. The game allows up to four players from one club, so a four-man Bayern block is legal and defensible for this window.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool