Sofascore Nations League Differentials Matchday 5: Best Low-Owned Picks
Our model's best Sofascore Nations League differential for Matchday 5 is Arda Güler (Turkiye), at home to Belgium: 7.1 predicted points at 7.1% ownership.
A differential here is any Sofascore Nations League player owned by fewer than 10% of managers. Below are the 10 with the most predicted points for Matchday 5, then the best five in each position. Ownership tells you how many rivals you gain on if he returns; start chance and minutes tell you how likely he is to play. The predictions are recomputed through the day as odds and team news land, and the page always shows the current matchday.
Best Sofascore Nations League differentials for Matchday 5 (under 10% owned)
| # | Player | Pos | Club | Fixture | pP | Start % | pMins | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Güler | MID | Turkiye | Belgium (H) | 7.1 | 100% | 71 | 7.1% |
| 2 | Bruno Fernandes | MID | Portugal | Denmark (H) | 7.1 | 91% | 77 | 2.8% |
| 3 | Dominik Szoboszlai | MID | Hungary | Georgia (A) | 6.7 | 99% | 85 | 8.3% |
| 4 | Willi Orban | DEF | Hungary | Georgia (A) | 6.5 | 99% | 88 | 2.8% |
| 5 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | MID | Georgia | Hungary (H) | 6.0 | 99% | 83 | 7.3% |
| 6 | Konstantinos Mavropanos | DEF | Greece | Netherlands (A) | 5.8 | 99% | 88 | 3.3% |
| 7 | Kristjan Asllani | MID | Albania | Finland (H) | 5.8 | 98% | 83 | 3.0% |
| 8 | Tural Bayramov | DEF | Azerbaijan | Liechtenstein (A) | 5.8 | 100% | 80 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Alessandro Bastoni | DEF | Italy | France (H) | 5.7 | 94% | 81 | 7.9% |
| 10 | Elliot Anderson | MID | England | Croatia (H) | 5.7 | 99% | 85 | 1.9% |
pP = predicted points for Matchday 5. Start % = our probability he starts; pMins = projected minutes; Owned = share of Sofascore Nations League managers who own him.
Projections last updated 2026-10-15 22:55 UTC.
Differential goalkeepers
| Player | Pos | Club | Fixture | pP | Start % | pMins | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Greif | GK | Slovakia | Faroe Islands (H) | 5.5 | 99% | 89 | 1.8% |
| Pierce Charles | GK | Northern Ireland | Ukraine (H) | 5.4 | 99% | 89 | 4.3% |
| Pavel Pavlyuchenko | GK | Belarus | San Marino (A) | 5.2 | 99% | 89 | 0.1% |
| Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson | GK | Iceland | Bulgaria (A) | 5.1 | 99% | 89 | 2.4% |
| Emil Balayev | GK | Azerbaijan | Liechtenstein (A) | 5.0 | 100% | 90 | 0.6% |
Differential defenders
| Player | Pos | Club | Fixture | pP | Start % | pMins | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Orban | DEF | Hungary | Georgia (A) | 6.5 | 99% | 88 | 2.8% |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos | DEF | Greece | Netherlands (A) | 5.8 | 99% | 88 | 3.3% |
| Tural Bayramov | DEF | Azerbaijan | Liechtenstein (A) | 5.8 | 100% | 80 | 0.2% |
| Alessandro Bastoni | DEF | Italy | France (H) | 5.7 | 94% | 81 | 7.9% |
| Marc Guehi | DEF | England | Croatia (H) | 5.6 | 90% | 80 | 6.3% |
Differential midfielders
| Player | Pos | Club | Fixture | pP | Start % | pMins | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Güler | MID | Turkiye | Belgium (H) | 7.1 | 100% | 71 | 7.1% |
| Bruno Fernandes | MID | Portugal | Denmark (H) | 7.1 | 91% | 77 | 2.8% |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | MID | Hungary | Georgia (A) | 6.7 | 99% | 85 | 8.3% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | MID | Georgia | Hungary (H) | 6.0 | 99% | 83 | 7.3% |
| Kristjan Asllani | MID | Albania | Finland (H) | 5.8 | 98% | 83 | 3.0% |
Differential forwards
| Player | Pos | Club | Fixture | pP | Start % | pMins | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres | FWD | Sweden | Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) | 5.4 | 95% | 80 | 8.4% |
| Nikola Krstovic | FWD | Montenegro | Latvia (H) | 5.1 | 97% | 81 | 2.6% |
| Nicola Nanni | FWD | San Marino | Belarus (H) | 4.7 | 98% | 83 | 0.2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | FWD | France | Italy (A) | 4.4 | 78% | 61 | 7.0% |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | FWD | Italy | France (H) | 4.3 | 71% | 60 | 3.1% |
Frequently asked questions
Who are the best Sofascore Nations League differentials for Matchday 5?
By predicted points among players owned by fewer than 10% of managers: Arda Güler (7.1 pts, 7.1% owned), Bruno Fernandes (7.1 pts, 2.8% owned), Dominik Szoboszlai (6.7 pts, 8.3% owned).
What is a differential in Sofascore Nations League?
A player few of your rivals own - on this page, under 10% ownership. When he scores you gain on almost everyone; when the popular pick scores instead, you lose ground. That makes differentials most useful when you are chasing.
When is the Sofascore Nations League Matchday 5 deadline?
The Matchday 5 deadline is Thursday 12 November, 16:30 UK time (Thursday 12 November, 16:30 UTC).
How often is this list updated?
Continuously - predicted points and ownership are refreshed through the day. The last update was 15 Oct 2026, 22:55 UTC.