Tattico Serie A Matchday 6: best buys and captain picks

Tattico Serie A Matchday 6 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Tattico Fantasy Serie A restarts after the international break, and Matchday 6 is the first transfer most managers have made in three weeks. That makes it a bigger decision than a normal week: the squad you take into the 10-12 October slate is the squad that also plays Matchday 7 and Matchday 8, and the three-round programs behind this round's fixtures pull in very different directions. Inter have the single best fixture in the game and the best three-round run; Juventus have the best defensive program; and two sides with a perfectly reasonable Matchday 6 fall away immediately afterwards. All twenty clubs play in Matchday 6 and all twenty play in each of the next two rounds, so nobody blanks and no program below is short a fixture.

Everything here comes from the model's own projections for this round and the two after it. You can sort the same numbers yourself on the Tattico player picks page, and check the squad they add up to on optimal teams for Tattico Fantasy Serie A.

The programs: whose next three Matchdays are worth owning

Read this table on the right-hand columns first. 3-round xG is the team's expected goals across Matchdays 6, 7 and 8 added together; 3-round CS is expected clean sheets out of three, so 1.23 means the model expects Inter to keep roughly one and a quarter clean sheets in the window. Every club has exactly three fixtures, so the totals are directly comparable.

Inter's [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO is the best program in the league at 7.11 expected goals, and it front-loads: Parma project just 0.63 xG of their own at the San Siro, the lowest figure any side carries into this round, which is why Inter's clean-sheet chance for Matchday 6 alone is 53%. That is a buy rather than a one-week rental - the Bologna and Fiorentina rounds behind it are still comfortably above average - but it does mean an Inter asset bought purely on the Matchday 6 number steps down noticeably in Matchday 7.

Juventus are the other side of the same coin and the more durable buy. [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC is not a spectacular single week - 1.80 xG at Cagliari - but 1.39 expected clean sheets over three rounds is the highest figure in the game, and the run never dips. Atalanta ([H]VEN -> [A]MIL -> [H]FRC, 5.52 xG over three) and Napoli ([H]FRC -> [A]VEN -> [H]ROM, 4.90) are the two attacking programs worth paying for behind Inter. Torino's [H]UDI -> [A]PAR -> [H]MON and Lazio's [H]MON -> [A]JUV -> [H]PAR are the value end: 1.01 and 1.09 expected clean sheets respectively, available from defenders priced under five million.

At the other end, Fiorentina's [A]GEN -> [H]COM -> [A]INT is worth only 3.48 xG and 0.68 expected clean sheets over three rounds, and it finishes away at Inter. Milan look fine this week at Sassuolo, but their [A]SAS -> [H]ATA -> [A]UDI is a 0.86 clean-sheet program - the lowest of the ten sides with the strongest three-round attacks. Predicted line-ups for each of these games appear on predicted line-ups for Tattico as they land, and the full calendar is on the Tattico schedule.

Goalkeepers for Matchday 6

The two boards disagree here, and it is worth saying which one to follow. Josep Martinez (5.9m, INT) tops Matchday 6 on his own with 5.40 projected - the best single-round number of any keeper - behind [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO and that 53% clean-sheet chance. But Guglielmo Vicario (6.1m, JUV) leads the three-round table with 14.40 to Martinez's 13.90, because Juventus's [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC program carries the highest expected clean sheets in the game. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Vicario. If you are buying for the spike and are happy to move again, Martinez is the bigger single week.

Christos Mandas (4.9m, LAZ) is the value route at 2.59 points per million over the three rounds, the best rate of any keeper in the game. His program is [H]MON -> [A]JUV -> [H]PAR and the trajectory tells you where the risk sits: 4.6, then 3.3 at Juventus, then 4.8 at home to Parma. Lucas Perri (5.0m, TOR) ([H]UDI -> [A]PAR -> [H]MON, 12.40 over three) is the same idea a tier down, and faces none of the four strongest attacks inside the window.

Defenders: where Matchday 6 is won

Federico Dimarco (7.3m, INT) is the highest-projected player in the entire game for this round at 6.70, and also the highest over the three-round window at 15.70. The program is [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO. The one caveat is minutes - the model has him at 66 projected minutes with a 0.84 starter factor, so he is the Inter defender most likely to be managed - and if that worries you, Alessandro Bastoni (6.5m, INT) projects 6.10 on 81 minutes with a 0.97 starter factor and 14.70 over three. Same clean sheet, less rotation risk.

The best value in the game is Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.7m, JUV). His program is [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC, he projects 14.50 over the three rounds - the fourth-highest of any defender in the pool - and at his price that is 3.09 points per million, the highest rate of any outfield player in the game. The trajectory is the point: 4.9, 4.6, 5.0. There is no dip to plan around, so he is a buy you can stop thinking about. Team-mate Pierre Kalulu (6.1m, JUV) reaches 14.60 over the same window if you want the identical program at a higher price and a higher floor.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.5m, NAP) is the pick if you want a full-back who plays every minute: 82 projected minutes, 5.40 this Matchday and 14.00 over [H]FRC -> [A]VEN -> [H]ROM, with Frosinone and Venezia either side of a home game against Roma. Amir Rrahmani (5.6m, NAP) (13.20 over three, 84 projected minutes) is the cheaper centre-back route into the same program.

The budget block worth building around is Torino's. [H]UDI -> [A]PAR -> [H]MON is 1.01 expected clean sheets over three rounds - fifth in the game - and none of Udinese, Parma or Monza is among the four strongest attacking programs in the window. Eray Cömert (4.5m, TOR) returns 11.60 over the three rounds at 2.58 per million and Saul Coco (5.0m, TOR) 11.80 at 2.36 per million, both on real minutes. Remember the cap: no more than three players from any one club, so a pair of Torino defenders plus their keeper is already the whole allowance.

Midfielders: premium, value and one genuine differential

Piotr Zielinski (7.1m, INT) is the premium midfield pick on both boards - 5.90 this Matchday, 14.00 across [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO - and he costs less than the Inter forwards while sharing the same fixture run. Charles De Ketelaere (7.3m, ATA) is the alternative if you would rather not stack Inter: [H]VEN -> [A]MIL -> [H]FRC gives him 12.80 over three, second among midfielders, and his trajectory (4.6, 3.7, 4.5) barely moves even through the away trip to Milan.

Federico Bernardeschi (6.0m, BOL) is the mid-price buy of the round: 4.70 this Matchday and 12.30 over [A]LEC -> [H]INT -> [A]CGL, which works out at 2.05 points per million - better than every midfielder above him in price. Bologna host Inter in Matchday 7, and that is the week to plan around rather than avoid, because the Lecce and Cagliari games either side are two of the softer assignments in the window.

Mattia Zaccagni (5.5m, LAZ) takes Lazio's penalties, which is a ceiling his price does not usually buy. His program is [H]MON -> [A]JUV -> [H]PAR for 11.10 over three rounds, with the Juventus away game as the obvious dip (2.8) between two home fixtures against Monza and Parma (4.3 and 4.0). If you want the cheapest way into a good program, Éderson (4.6m, ATA) returns 9.90 over three at 2.15 per million on 74 projected minutes - a squad filler who is not a passenger.

The genuine differential is Nico Paz (10.5m, COM). He is the most expensive midfielder in the game and worth only 3.90 this Matchday, which is why most squads will leave him out - but [H]ROM -> [A]FIO -> [H]SAS is worth 12.20 over three rounds and his run rises rather than fades (3.9, 3.8, 4.5). That is a program buy, not a round buy, and the honest framing is that you are paying for Matchday 8 onwards. One to note but not to rush: Giorgi Kvernadze (4.6m, FRC) projects only 2.8 at Napoli this week before jumping to 4.0 at home to Sassuolo in Matchday 7, so he is a Matchday 7 target rather than a Matchday 6 one - [A]NAP -> [H]SAS -> [A]ATA is not a program you buy into for three rounds.

Forwards: the best fixture in the game, and the cheaper way in

Marcus Thuram (10.2m, INT) is the forward to own. 5.80 this Matchday and 13.60 over [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO, and he costs materially less than Lautaro Martinez (11.8m, INT) for a slightly higher projection (13.60 against 13.20 over the three rounds). The one argument for the more expensive option is penalties - Lautaro Martinez is Inter's taker and Thuram is not - so if you want the spot-kick ceiling as well as the fixtures, that is what the extra outlay buys.

Rasmus Højlund (9.4m, NAP) is the best non-Inter premium: Napoli's penalty taker, 74 projected minutes at a 0.96 starter factor, 5.30 this Matchday and 13.10 across [H]FRC -> [A]VEN -> [H]ROM. Two of those three are among the softest defensive assignments in the window, and unlike the Inter attack his program does not step down after Matchday 6 - which is exactly why he is the one to buy if you are only making one move.

Gianluca Scamacca (6.0m, ATA) is the value forward of the round: 11.20 over three rounds at 1.87 points per million - the best three-round total of any forward under seven million - with [H]VEN -> [A]MIL -> [H]FRC behind him and Atalanta carrying the second-highest three-round expected goals in the game at 5.52. The caveat is honest: 60 projected minutes, so he is a rotation risk in a way the premiums are not. Further down, Roberto Piccoli (5.0m, BOL) (9.60 over three) and Akor Adams (4.2m, VEN) (8.80) are the cheapest forwards with real minutes behind them.

Donyell Malen (10.6m, ROM) is the one you can wait a round on, and that is useful to know. Roma's [A]COM -> [H]GEN -> [A]NAP only turns good in Matchday 7, and he projects 3.9 this week against 4.7 next - so the fixture that justifies the buy has not arrived yet, and a transfer made now spends a move a week early. The same applies to Paulo Dybala (8.8m, ROM) (3.8 then 4.4). If you have a free transfer burning a hole, spend it inside the Inter or Juventus programs and come back to Roma in seven days.

Captain picks for Matchday 6

The captain scores double in Tattico, so the pick is simply the highest projection you can find - and this round the model's answer is an unusual one.

1. Federico Dimarco - 6.70 projected, the highest single-round number of any player in the game, from [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO. Doubled, that is a ceiling no attacker in this round reaches. The risk is minutes (66 projected), so check the line-up before the deadline.
2. Alessandro Bastoni - 6.10, and the safer version of the same bet: 81 projected minutes, a 0.97 starter factor, and the same [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO program behind him.
3. Marcus Thuram - 5.80, the highest-ceiling attacking option, with [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO to follow if you would rather keep the armband in one place across two rounds.

Outside those, Piotr Zielinski (5.90) and Manuel Akanji (5.80) are the next names on the board, and Lautaro Martinez at 5.60 is the pick if you want penalties attached to the armband. Looking one step further: Inter remain the strongest captaincy home in Matchday 8 when they host Fiorentina, while Matchday 7's best single fixture is Roma at home to Genoa, the highest projected attack of that round - so a premium bought this week should ideally be one you are happy to captain again in a fortnight. Bookmaker-implied numbers for every game are on Tattico market probabilities.

Who to sell before Matchday 6

Strahinja Pavlovic (7.0m, MIL) is the clearest sale, and this is the round to make it. Sassuolo away is not a bad fixture - Milan project 1.71 xG with a 35% clean-sheet chance and he returns 4.30, which is a perfectly respectable week. The reason to move now is what sits behind it: [A]SAS -> [H]ATA -> [A]UDI drops him to 3.4 and 3.6, and Milan's 0.86 expected clean sheets over three rounds is the lowest of the ten strongest attacking programs in the league. The choice is selling into a decent score this week or out of a poor one next week, and it costs the same either way.

Franco Mastantuono (6.7m, FIO) goes for the opposite reason: the program never recovers. [A]GEN -> [H]COM -> [A]INT is worth 3.48 expected goals and 0.68 expected clean sheets over three rounds, and his own line reads 3.7, 3.3, 2.8 - falling into an away trip to the best side in the league. There is no week in this window where selling him gets easier, so do it while the Genoa fixture still supports the price.

Kevin De Bruyne (8.3m, NAP) is a minutes sale rather than a fixture sale, and the distinction matters: Napoli's [H]FRC -> [A]VEN -> [H]ROM is one of the better programs in the game and you want exposure to it. He is simply not the right exposure - 52 projected minutes at a 0.54 starter factor and 9.80 over three rounds, which several midfielders at half the price beat. Move the money inside the same program instead, to Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.5m, NAP) (82 projected minutes) or Rasmus Højlund (9.4m, NAP) (74). Why now rather than later: a premium is easiest to move while his fixtures still look good, and Napoli's get harder in Matchday 8, when they host Roma.

Finally, clear the dead weight. Kenan Yildiz (6.6m, JUV) and Ismael Kone (5.5m, SAS) are both flagged unavailable with return dates in November, so they score nothing across the whole [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC window and the Inter one behind it. Hakan Calhanoglu (8.6m, INT) carries a mid-October return date, which rules him out of Matchday 6 and leaves Matchday 7 in doubt. If you are holding any of the three, that is the transfer to make before the fixtures start rather than after.

More Tattico analysis, including the previous round's write-up, is in the Tattico preview hub - start with the Tattico Serie A Matchday 5 preview to see which of these programs was already turning. Our wider fantasy football guides cover the strategy behind multi-round planning.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Tattico Serie A Matchday 6?

Federico Dimarco is the model's top pick at 6.70 projected, the highest single-round figure of any player in the game, from [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO. The captain scores double in Tattico, so that is also the highest expected armband return. Alessandro Bastoni at 6.10 is the lower-risk alternative on 81 projected minutes, and Marcus Thuram at 5.80 is the highest-ceiling attacking option.

Which budget defenders are best for Matchday 6?

Mehmet Zeki Celik is the standout at 14.50 projected points over the next three rounds, the best points-per-million rate of any outfield player in the game, behind Juventus's [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC program. Torino's Eray Cömert and Saul Coco are the next tier, both under five million, with 1.01 expected clean sheets over [H]UDI -> [A]PAR -> [H]MON.

Should I sell Strahinja Pavlovic before Matchday 6?

Yes, and this is the round to do it. Sassuolo away is a fine fixture and he still projects 4.30, but [A]SAS -> [H]ATA -> [A]UDI follows and he falls to 3.4 and 3.6. Milan carry only 0.86 expected clean sheets over the three rounds, the lowest of the ten strongest attacking programs, so you are selling into a decent week rather than out of a bad one.

Best differentials for Tattico Serie A Matchday 6?

Nico Paz is the most interesting: the most expensive midfielder in the game, worth only 3.90 this round but 12.20 across [H]ROM -> [A]FIO -> [H]SAS on a rising trajectory, so most squads will pass on him now. Cheaper options are Éderson (9.90 over three rounds) and Gianluca Scamacca, who has the best three-round total of any forward under seven million.

Which teams have the best fixtures in Tattico Serie A Matchday 6?

Inter, by a distance: [H]PAR projects 3.16 expected goals with a 53% clean-sheet chance at home to Parma, and their [H]PAR -> [A]BOL -> [H]FIO program is the best three-round run in the league at 7.11 expected goals. Juventus have the best defensive program with 1.39 expected clean sheets over [A]CGL -> [H]LAZ -> [A]LEC, and Atalanta the second-best attacking one at 5.52 expected goals.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.