Tattico Serie A Matchday 5: best buys and captain picks

Tattico Serie A Matchday 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Tattico Fantasy Serie A returns on Friday night and Matchday 5 is a full round – all twenty clubs play once, and every club also plays once in Matchday 6 and once in Matchday 7. No blanks, no doubles, nothing to plan around. That makes this a pure programme round: the transfer you make before the deadline is a decision about the next three weeks, not about one Saturday.

The short version. Milan have the softest single fixture in the game and the numbers to match, Juventus own the best three-round defensive run, and Inter have the best attacking window – but Inter's good week is the next one, which changes when you buy them. Below: the programmes worth owning, the best buys by position with their fixture chains, the ranked captain picks, the cheap differentials, and the players whose run collapses after Matchday 5.

The programmes: whose next three Matchdays are worth owning

Inter carry the strongest attacking programme in the game at 6.33 expected goals across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL, and almost a third of it sits in one fixture: their Matchday 6 home game with Parma is the biggest number in the whole window at 85% win probability, 3.04 expected goals and a 55% clean-sheet chance. Nothing else in Matchdays 5 to 7 comes close. The catch is that Matchday 5 sends them to Roma, a genuine coin-flip at 37%. So Inter assets are a buy – just understand you are buying them for the week after this one.

Milan are the opposite shape. Their [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA opens with the best fixture any club has this round – 76% win probability, 2.37 expected goals and a 53% clean-sheet chance, all three the highest figures in Matchday 5 – and then tightens: Sassuolo away, then Atalanta at home. 5.56 expected goals and 1.13 expected clean sheets over three is still second and third best respectively, so Milan are not a one-week team, but their peak is this weekend and the rest is ordinary.

Juventus are the cleanest three-round hold on the board. [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ is 1.27 expected clean sheets, the best defensive run in the game, and 5.29 expected goals, third best. There is no single spectacular fixture in it – it is three above-average ones, which is exactly the shape you buy when you want to make a transfer and then stop thinking about it. Napoli sit right behind on the same logic: [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN, 5.23 expected goals and 1.15 expected clean sheets, with the soft home game against Frosinone in the middle.

At the other end, Lecce have the worst attacking programme in the game at 2.55 expected goals over three and start it at Milan, where they are given a 7% chance of winning. Frosinone have the worst defensive programme at 0.48 expected clean sheets and host Como first. Both are avoid-for-three-weeks, not just avoid-for-one. Full fixture detail, including kick-off times, is on the Tattico Serie A schedule, and the underlying win and clean-sheet numbers come from our market probabilities for Tattico.

Read that table on the last three columns, not the first four. A club that is top of the Matchday 5 ranking and mid-table on the three-round columns is a rotation play; a club that is mid-table this week and top on the cumulative columns is a hold.

Goalkeepers for Matchday 5

Guglielmo Vicario (6.0m, JUV) is the buy, and it is a programme buy rather than a fixture buy. His chain is [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ and his projection barely moves across it – 4.3 → 4.9 → 4.6, 13.8 points over three, the highest total of any goalkeeper in the game. Juventus's 1.27 expected clean sheets over the window is the number doing the work. Buy him and you are done at the position for a month.

Mike Maignan (6.0m, MIL) is the highest-projected keeper of Matchday 5 alone at 5.0, on the back of that 53% Milan clean-sheet chance against Lecce. But [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA tells the rest of the story: 5.0 → 4.3 → 3.5, only 12.8 over three. He is the right pick if you already hold him, or if you want the single best keeper of this weekend; he is the wrong pick if you want to buy once and forget it. At the same 6.0m, Vicario is the better transfer.

Value: Christos Mandas (4.8m, LAZ) projects 3.9 → 4.6 → 3.3 across [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV and has the joint-best points-per-million of any keeper on the six-round weighted view. Maduka Okoye (5.0m, UDI) is the better shape if you want the back end loaded – [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC gives 4.0 → 3.5 → 4.6, and Udinese have the fifth-best three-round clean-sheet run at 1.03. Both free up real money against the 6.0m options.

Defenders: where Matchday 5 is actually won

Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.7m, JUV) is the best value pick in the game right now and the one name to take away from this preview. His programme is Juventus's – [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ – and it produces 4.6 → 5.0 → 4.7, 14.3 points over three, within half a point of the most expensive defenders in the league at roughly two-thirds of their price. On the six-round decay-weighted view he has the highest points-per-million of any defender in Serie A at 3.60. There is no round in the window where he is a bad hold.

Federico Dimarco (7.3m, INT) has the highest three-round total of any defender at 14.7, but the shape matters: 3.9 → 6.6 → 4.2. That 6.6 against Parma is the highest single-round projection for any player, in any position, across Matchdays 5 to 7. Buying him this week means paying a Roma-away fixture to be in place before the Parma game, and that is a legitimate reason to buy now rather than next week – the transfer has to be made before the good fixture, not during it. The same argument covers Alessandro Bastoni (6.5m, INT) at 13.3 and Manuel Akanji (6.5m, INT) at 13.2 on the identical [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL, though the three-per-club cap means you are choosing between them rather than stacking all three alongside a fourth Inter asset.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.5m, NAP) is the middle-price pick that needs no caveats. [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN gives 4.4 → 5.5 → 4.7 for 14.6 over three – second only to Dimarco on the total, and he is 1.8m cheaper. Napoli's 1.15 expected clean sheets is the second-best defensive run in the game, and Di Lorenzo carries attacking return on top of it, with 0.10 expected assists in Matchday 5 alone.

Strahinja Pavlovic (7.0m, MIL) is the highest-projected player of Matchday 5 at 5.6, and the Lecce fixture is why. But his chain reads 5.6 → 4.3 → 3.4 across [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA, which is 13.3 over three – a point behind Celik, at 2.3m more. Own him for the round if you already have him; do not spend 7.0m on him now expecting it to hold. Mario Gila (6.2m, MIL) at 5.5 this round is the same [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA bet for less money, and Koni De Winter (5.5m, MIL) at 5.1 is cheaper still on the same chain.

Budget defence: Torbjoern Lysaker Heggem (4.4m, BOL) projects 4.4 in Matchday 5 – a full point per million – and his [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT gives 11.5 over three, with the Inter home game the only awkward one. James Abankwah (4.4m, UDI) at 4.2 this round has the better back end via [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC. Nuno Tavares (5.0m, LAZ) is the attacking version: 0.15 expected assists in Matchday 5, 4.6 → 4.9 → 3.0 over [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV, so he is a two-round buy with the Juventus away trip as the natural exit. Emil Holm (5.0m, BOL) is the highest-projected defender under 5.5m this round at 4.9, on the same Bologna chain.

Midfielders

Piotr Zielinski (7.1m, INT) is the midfield buy on the horizon view: 3.6 → 5.5 → 3.7 across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL, and he holds an 83% share of Inter's penalties, which is the cleanest source of ceiling in the position. The Roma game is the price of admission for the Parma game; buy this week, not next. On the same programme, Nicolo Barella (8.0m, INT) gives 11.7 over three, while Kevin De Bruyne (8.3m, NAP) tops the position outright at 13.1 across [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN with 0.23 expected assists in Matchday 5 – the most durable premium midfielder of the three.

Federico Bernardeschi (6.0m, BOL) is the best combination of price, minutes and penalties in the game. He projects 4.7 this round – second only to Nico Paz among midfielders this round – on 0.34 expected goals and 0.21 expected assists, he takes 88% of Bologna's penalties, and his [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT produces 12.4 over three. At 6.0m that is premium output at a mid-price cost, and the front two fixtures of the chain are the good ones.

Nico Paz (10.4m, COM) is the highest-projected midfielder of Matchday 5 at 5.0, with Como away at Frosinone – 63% win probability and 2.28 expected goals, the second-best attacking fixture of the round. He is also the most expensive midfielder in the game, and his chain is 5.0 → 3.5 → 3.5 over [A]FRC → [H]ROM → [A]FIO. That is a one-round buy dressed as a premium. If you own him, this is his week; if you do not, 10.4m buys more elsewhere over three.

Value midfield: Mattia Zaccagni (5.5m, LAZ) takes 93% of Lazio's penalties and reads 4.2 → 4.3 → 2.7 over [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV – a clean two-round buy with an obvious exit. Kenneth Taylor (5.0m, LAZ) is the same programme 0.5m cheaper at 10.0 over three. Samuel Chukwueze (5.7m, MIL) at 4.5 is the cheapest Milan midfielder projected above four points this round, but [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA falls away to 3.4 and 2.6 afterwards, so treat him as a one-round rotation buy. And Lewis Ferguson (4.4m, BOL) is the genuine budget filler at 3.4 this round, with [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT giving him two friendly fixtures before the Inter week.

Forwards

Goncalo Ramos (8.9m, MIL) is the highest-projected forward of Matchday 5 at 5.1, on 0.59 expected goals and a 41% share of Milan's penalties against the weakest defence in the round. His programme [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA gives 5.1 → 4.0 → 3.3 for 12.4 over three – front-loaded, but the total still stands up, and the Sassuolo away game in Matchday 6 is far from a write-off.

Rasmus Højlund (9.4m, NAP) leads all forwards on the three-round total at 12.9, with 3.9 → 5.1 → 3.9 across [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN and an 80% penalty share. His is the flattest premium forward chain in the game, which is precisely the case for owning him rather than rotating: there is no week in the window where you would want him out. Randal Kolo Muani (7.2m, JUV) is the cheaper version of the same idea – 81% of Juventus penalties, 10.3 points over [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ – and at 7.2m he leaves room for a premium elsewhere.

Paulo Dybala (8.8m, ROM) is the counter-cyclical pick: 3.8 → 3.4 → 4.0 over [H]INT → [A]COM → [H]GEN, so his best fixture is Matchday 7, not this one. That is a reason to wait a round on him rather than buy now – nothing in his programme rewards being early, and the transfer is better spent elsewhere this week.

Budget forwards: Roberto Piccoli (5.0m, BOL) projects 3.3 this round and 9.0 over [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT, the best total of any forward under 5.5m. Akor Adams (4.3m, VEN) is the cheapest forward worth starting at 3.2, on 0.30 expected goals and 82 projected minutes, but [H]LAZ → [A]ATA → [H]NAP is a hard programme – he is a squad filler, not a hold. Gustavo Varela (4.5m, MON) takes every Monza penalty and gets the best of his three fixtures first, at [H]SAS → [A]LAZ → [H]CGL.

Captain picks for Matchday 5

The armband doubles in Tattico, so the captain decision is simply the highest projection you are confident will play – and this week the model's answer is an unusual one.

1. Strahinja Pavlovic (7.0m, MIL) – 5.6 projected, the highest figure of any player in the round in any position. Milan's 53% clean-sheet chance against Lecce is the best defensive number of the Matchday, and he adds 0.08 expected goals from set pieces on top of it. Doubling a defender feels wrong until you notice nothing in the forward line projects above 5.1. Note that [H]LEC is the only week of his [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA worth the armband. Mario Gila (6.2m, MIL) at 5.5 is the same bet if you own him instead.

2. Goncalo Ramos (8.9m, MIL) – 5.1 projected, and the highest ceiling on the board. His 0.59 expected goals is the largest figure in the round, and a captained forward who scores twice beats a captained defender's clean sheet every time. His [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA is front-loaded too, so if you are buying him as well as captaining him, this is the week the two decisions line up. If you want variance rather than the model's floor, this is the pick.

3. Nico Paz (10.4m, COM) – 5.0 projected at Frosinone, in the round's second-best attacking fixture. Behind those three, Mike Maignan (6.0m, MIL) at 5.0 and Emil Holm (5.0m, BOL) at 4.9 are the next names, and both sit in the same two fixtures as the leaders.

Plan one round further and the armband moves decisively. Matchday 6 belongs to Inter at home to Parma, where Dimarco projects 6.6, Zielinski 5.5 and Lautaro Martinez 5.2 – the three biggest single-round numbers anywhere in the window. Matchday 7 swings to Udinese at home to Lecce, where Mergim Vojvoda (5.1) and Hassane Kamara (4.8) lead the board. If you want a captain you do not have to solve again next week, an Inter asset bought now covers Matchday 6 as well as anything you can own. Compare the full list on our Tattico player picks, and check the predicted lineups for Tattico before the deadline.

Sell and avoid

Christian Pulisic (8.9m, MIL) is the sell, and this is the round to make it. The Lecce fixture is the best he will see for a month and 4.5 projected is a perfectly respectable score – this is not a bad week for him. But he is projected only 53 minutes with a starter factor of 0.59, so you are paying 8.9m for a rotation risk, and [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA falls to 3.5 → 2.9 once Milan travel to Sassuolo and host Atalanta. Selling into a good fixture now beats selling out of a poor one in two weeks, and Chukwueze at 5.7m gives you most of the same Lecce exposure for 3.2m less.

Donyell Malen (10.6m, ROM) is the clearest premium to move on. At 10.6m he projects 3.4 this round – 0.32 points per million, poor for a double-digit price – and 10.8 over [H]INT → [A]COM → [H]GEN. The why-now is that his one good fixture is Matchday 7 at home to Genoa, three weeks away, and he faces Inter and then Como first. There is no case for holding premium money idle through two coin-flips to reach it.

Gianluca Scamacca (6.0m, ATA) projects just 2.2 this round at 6.0m, and the programme is the problem rather than the club: Atalanta's [A]JUV → [H]VEN → [A]MIL sandwiches one soft home game between the two hardest away days on their calendar, and he totals 8.4 over the three. Only the Venezia week in Matchday 6 rewards owning him, and one fixture in three does not justify a 6.0m forward slot. Anastasios Douvikas (8.2m, COM) is the same story with the timing reversed: his best fixture is this one, and at a projected 48 minutes with Como's programme hardening to [H]ROM → [A]FIO afterwards, 7.8 points over three at 8.2m is not defensible. Sell him into the Frosinone game rather than after it.

One player not to sell: Lautaro Martinez (11.8m, INT). He is the most expensive player in the game and 3.4 at Roma looks thin, so the instinct to move him this week is understandable. Do not – his [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL puts Inter at home to Parma in Matchday 6, the best fixture of the entire three-round window, and he projects 5.2 there. Selling now means paying the transfer again to get back in seven days. Avoid Lecce and Frosinone assets entirely: they own the worst attacking and worst defensive three-round programmes in the game respectively, and neither improves inside the window.

Where to go next

The numbers in this preview are the model's current projections and they move as lineups firm up through the week. The live version of every figure quoted here is on the Tattico Serie A player picks page, the squad that maximises them under the formation and three-per-club rules is solved live on optimal teams for Tattico Serie A, and the fixture chains behind the programme table are on the Tattico schedule. Last week's analysis is in our Tattico Serie A Matchday 4 preview, and every round we have covered is collected in the Tattico Serie A preview hub. More background reading lives in our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Tattico Serie A Matchday 5?

Strahinja Pavlovic is the model's top captain pick at 5.6 projected points, the highest figure of any player in Matchday 5. Milan host Lecce with a 53% clean-sheet chance, the best defensive number of the round. If you prefer a higher ceiling, Goncalo Ramos at 5.1 has the largest expected-goals figure in the round at 0.59, and Nico Paz at 5.0 is the third option, away at Frosinone.

Which budget defenders are best for Matchday 5?

Mehmet Zeki Celik at 4.7m is the standout – 4.6 projected this round and 14.3 over Matchdays 5 to 7, the best points-per-million of any defender in the game. Torbjoern Lysaker Heggem at 4.4m projects 4.4 with Bologna hosting Torino, and James Abankwah at 4.4m gives you Udinese's home games against Cagliari and Lecce inside the same three-round window.

Should I sell Christian Pulisic before Matchday 5?

Yes, and this is the round to do it. Milan at home to Lecce is his best fixture for a month and 4.5 projected is a fair score, but he is on just 53 projected minutes at 8.9m and his projection falls to 3.5 and then 2.9 as Milan travel to Sassuolo and host Atalanta. Selling into the good fixture beats selling out of a bad one in two weeks.

Best differentials for Tattico Serie A Matchday 5?

Federico Bernardeschi at 6.0m is the strongest – 4.7 projected, 88% of Bologna's penalties and 12.4 points over three rounds at a mid-price cost. Behind him, Christos Mandas at 4.8m in goal for Lazio, Emil Holm at 5.0m and Kenneth Taylor at 5.0m all offer premium-level output at budget prices, and none of them requires a Milan or Inter squad slot.

Which teams have the best fixtures in Tattico Serie A Matchday 5 to 7?

Inter have the best attacking programme at 6.33 expected goals over the three rounds, driven by their Matchday 6 home game against Parma – 85% win probability and 3.04 expected goals, the biggest single fixture in the window. Juventus have the best defensive run at 1.27 expected clean sheets, and Milan have the best fixture of Matchday 5 itself, at home to Lecce.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.