Tattico Serie A Matchday 4: best buys and captains

Tattico Serie A Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Tattico Fantasy Serie A splits over four days in Matchday 4, from a Friday-night opener to a Monday triple-header that closes the round. The deadline is Friday 11 September at 20:45, when Venezia host Fiorentina.

Read the round through the model and one thing jumps out: this is a clean-sheet Matchday, not a goal-fest. Nine of the ten highest predicted point totals in the game belong to goalkeepers and defenders. Everyone will own the obvious attacking names. The Matchday 4 managers gain ground on are the 4.5m-5.0m defenders in the five best defensive fixtures, and the squad fillers that free up the budget to hold them.

Matchday 4 fixtures: where the points are

Two fixtures stand clear of the rest. Como - Parma gives Como a 75% win probability and the best clean-sheet number of the round, and Inter - Udinese gives Inter the highest expected goals total in the game at 2.31. Both are Monday games, which matters if you like waiting on team news elsewhere.

One row per team, from the model's own fixture projections:

The teams to strip out are the away sides in those top fixtures. Parma (7% win probability at Como), Udinese (9% at Inter), Cagliari (14% at Atalanta), Sassuolo (16% at home to Juventus), Torino (17% against Roma) and Bologna (18% at Napoli) are all projected under 0.90 expected goals. If you are holding an asset from any of them, this is the week to move him on. You can sanity-check every one of these numbers on the Tattico market probabilities page, which shows the bookmaker-implied win and clean-sheet odds the model is built on.

Look past Matchday 4 before you spend a transfer

Two of the best fixtures this round are one-week spikes, and that changes what you should pay for them.

Como run [H]Parma to [A]Frosinone to [H]Roma to [A]Fiorentina. After Matchday 4 their win probability drops to 45%, 36% and 40%. Buy Como for this round by all means, but do it cheaply - a 10.4m Como midfielder bought now is being paid for on the strength of one fixture.

Inter run [H]Udinese to [A]Roma to [H]Parma to [A]Bologna. That is a spike, a dip, a bigger spike (77% win probability, 2.57 expected goals in Matchday 6) and then a neutral. Inter assets are a Matchday 4 and 6 play with an awkward week in between.

Juventus are the steady hold: [A]Sassuolo to [H]Atalanta to [A]Cagliari to [H]Lazio, with win probabilities of 60%, 45%, 51% and 53% and a 43% clean-sheet projection in Matchday 7. If you are making one transfer and want it to last, make it a Juventus one. The full four-day schedule and every future fixture is on the Tattico schedule page.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 4

Jean Butez (5.4m, Como) is projected for 5.5 points - the single highest projection of any player in the game this Matchday, in any position. Como's 57% clean-sheet probability against a Parma side the model gives 0.57 expected goals is the reason. His per-million return of 1.02 is the best of any starting goalkeeper.

The catch is the same one that applies to every Como asset: his projections fall to 4.1, 3.8 and 4.0 over the next three rounds. Treat him as a two-round goalkeeper, not a season-long one.

Guglielmo Vicario (6.0m, Juventus) is the opposite trade. His Matchday 4 number is a more modest 4.6, but his run reads 4.6, 4.1, 4.4, 4.6, 5.1 and gives him the strongest decay-weighted score of any goalkeeper in the game at 16.2. That is the set-and-forget pick.

Justin Bijlow (4.5m, Genoa) is the budget answer, and a good one: 4.5 points at 4.5m, a 40% clean-sheet chance at home to Frosinone, and 4.2 again the following week. Every 0.9m you save here funds an upgrade at the other end of the pitch. Alex Meret (5.1m, Napoli) sits between the two - 4.7 this round and a 15.9 weighted six-round score, the fourth-highest of any goalkeeper.

Best defenders for Matchday 4

This is where the round is won. Six defenders are projected above 4.6 points and three of them cost 5.0m or less.

Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.6m, Juventus) is the pick of the entire game. He returns 4.7 points this Matchday, a per-million ratio of 1.02, and - unusually for a cheap defender - he holds it: 4.7, 4.0, 4.3, 4.4, 4.8 across the next five rounds, for the best decay-weighted score of any defender under 5m (15.8). He is projected for 74 minutes with 0.06 expected goals and 0.08 expected assists on top of the clean-sheet base, so he is not purely a defensive points source.

Pierre Kalulu (6.1m, Juventus) is the premium version of the same idea and carries the second-highest weighted score of any defender at 16.5, behind only Federico Dimarco. If your budget allows only one Juventus defender, Celik is the better value and Kalulu the safer minutes (84 projected).

Federico Dimarco (7.5m, Inter) has the highest single-round projection of any outfield player at 5.3 points, built on 0.18 expected assists and a 33% clean-sheet share. The warning is his projected 68 minutes - Inter rotate him, and that risk is already priced into the 5.3. Worth it for Matchday 4 and 6; less so for the Roma trip in between.

Giorgio Scalvini (5.5m, Atalanta) at 5.1 points and Odilon Kossounou (4.9m, Atalanta) at 4.7 are the two ways into Atalanta's 46% clean sheet against Cagliari. Kossounou is the value play at 0.96 points per million.

The Genoa block is the deepest budget option anywhere in the game: Leo Østigard (5.0m) at 4.8, Johan Vásquez (4.5m) at 4.6 and Alessandro Marcandalli (4.5m) at 4.3, all projected for 82+ minutes at home to a Frosinone side the model gives 0.91 expected goals. Vásquez matches Celik's 1.02 points per million. Remember the three-players-per-club cap - take all three Genoa defenders and you have no room for a Genoa attacker.

For the longer hold, Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.5m, Napoli) is projected 4.6 this round with a 15.1 weighted score, and Napoli's [H]Bologna to [A]Fiorentina to [H]Frosinone to [A]Venezia run has no genuinely bad week in it. Compare every defender side by side on the Tattico player picks page.

Best midfielders for Matchday 4

Nico Paz (10.4m, Como) is the standout attacking projection of the round at 5.0 points, from 0.34 expected goals and 0.20 expected assists in 66 projected minutes against the weakest defence in the Matchday. He is also the most expensive midfielder in the game, and his projection falls to 3.6 and 3.3 in the next two rounds. Buy him for the fixture, not for the season.

Chico Conceicao (7.4m, Juventus) is the better investment at nearly 3m less. He projects 4.4 this week and 14.2 on the weighted six-round score, second only to Nico Paz among midfielders while being the more durable of the two. His 0.25 expected goals from a wide role at Sassuolo is a genuine ceiling.

Mario Pasalic (6.4m, Atalanta) at 4.1 points and 83 projected minutes is the reliable mid-price option - no rotation question, and Atalanta's home fixture is the third-best in the round. Lucas Da Cunha (6.9m, Como) also projects 4.1 and carries Como's penalties with a 66% share, which is the ceiling Nico Paz does not have.

Midfield differentials at 5.0m and under

Three cheap midfielders return more per million than anyone above them:

• Éderson (4.5m, Atalanta) - 4.5m for 3.7 points is 0.82 per million, the best in the position, and his weighted score of 11.7 is higher than several 7m midfielders. Atalanta's home fixture plus a 68-minute projection makes him the single best squad filler in the game.
• Tommaso Baldanzi (4.5m, Genoa) - the same 3.7 and the same 0.82 per million, with 0.17 expected goals and 0.10 expected assists at home to Frosinone.
• Santiago Pierotti (5.0m, Lecce) - 4.0 points and 0.24 expected goals in 73 projected minutes for a Lecce side hosting Monza with a 42% win probability. The highest raw projection of the three.

Manuel Locatelli (4.5m, Juventus) deserves a separate mention. His 3.4 projection looks ordinary, but he takes Juventus penalties with a 94% share - the highest penalty concentration of any cheap midfielder in the game - and Juventus have the best four-round run of any side. At 4.5m he is a bench slot that can win you a Matchday.

Best forwards for Matchday 4

Rasmus Højlund (9.4m, Napoli) is the best forward in the game on both measures: 4.4 points this Matchday and 14.4 on the weighted six-round score, from 0.44 expected goals in 71 projected minutes against Bologna. If you own one premium forward, this is the one to own.

Gianluca Scamacca (6.0m, Atalanta) is the differential that matters. He projects 4.2 points - exactly the same as Lautaro Martinez - at 5.7m less. Scamacca returns 0.70 points per million against Lautaro's 0.36. His 0.38 expected goals at home to Cagliari trails only Højlund, Donyell Malen and Lautaro among forwards. The only caveat is 63 projected minutes.

Lautaro Martinez (11.7m, Inter) is not a bad player at 4.2 points; he is a badly priced one this Matchday. At 11.7m he is the most expensive asset in the game and he is out-projected by a 5.4m goalkeeper.

Two budget forwards are worth a squad slot. Lorenzo Colombo (5.0m, Genoa) projects 3.8 with an 84% penalty share and the strongest weighted score of any forward under 6m (11.8). Akor Adams (4.3m, Venezia) is the cheapest starting forward in the game and returns 3.9 points - 0.91 per million, the best ratio of any forward - with 0.33 expected goals in 77 minutes against Fiorentina. Adams is a one-week punt: Venezia's projections drop to 2.9 and 2.4 straight after.

Captain picks for Matchday 4

Captain Nico Paz. Among the top of the projection table he is the only player whose upside is not capped by a clean sheet - 0.34 expected goals and 0.20 expected assists in the fixture the model rates highest in the whole round. At 5.0 projected points doubled, he is both the highest-projected attacker and the highest-ceiling one.

Federico Dimarco is the alternative if you already own him. His 5.3 is the highest outfield projection in the game, and a clean sheet plus an assist against Udinese is a very live outcome - but 68 projected minutes is real rotation risk on an armband.

Giorgio Scalvini at 5.1 is the third option, and the safest floor of the three: 84 projected minutes and a 46% clean-sheet chance.

Worth knowing: the highest projection in the entire game this Matchday belongs to goalkeeper Jean Butez at 5.5. Captaining a goalkeeper maximises expected points and minimises your ceiling, so it is a defensible move only if you are protecting a lead rather than chasing one. The live optimiser will always show you the pure expected-points answer - see the current Tattico optimal teams.

Who to sell before Matchday 4

The sell list is short and it is all premium.

• Marcus Thuram (10.2m, Inter) - 3.2 projected points on 47 minutes. He is the worst points-per-million premium in the game at 0.31, and Inter's Matchday 5 is away at Roma. Selling him funds Scamacca plus a 4.5m defender.
• Kevin De Bruyne (8.3m, Napoli) - 3.6 this round, then 3.1, 3.4, 2.8 and 2.5. That is a falling trajectory on an expensive asset, and 59 projected minutes.
• Paulo Dybala (8.7m, Roma) - 2.9 points in a fixture Roma are favourites to win. When the model likes the team and not the player, that is a minutes problem, not a fixture problem.
• Nick Woltemade (9.0m, Juventus) - 2.7 points on 41 minutes. Juventus have the best run in the game and this is the wrong way to own it; Conceicao or Celik are the right ones.
• Any Parma, Udinese, Cagliari or Sassuolo asset - four teams projected under 0.92 expected goals in Matchday 4.

With one free transfer and a 4-point hit for each extra, the discipline is to make the move that survives Matchday 5 as well. A Thuram-to-Scamacca swap does that; a Thuram-to-Nico Paz swap buys one fixture and then leaves you holding a 10.4m asset with a 36% win probability. Confirm minutes before you commit on the Tattico predicted lineups page, which updates as team news lands through the Friday-to-Monday schedule.

Matchday 4 in one line

Own one premium attacker - Højlund or Nico Paz - and then spend the rest of the round's edge on defence: Celik at 4.6m, a Genoa or Atalanta clean-sheet partner, Éderson at 4.5m, and Butez or Bijlow in goal. The obvious names are on everyone's team. The 4.5m block is not.

Our Tattico Serie A Matchday 3 preview covered the same defensive pattern, and the whole series lives in the Tattico preview hub. New to predicted points? Start with our fantasy football guides, or check the raw projections on the Tattico player picks page.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Tattico Serie A Matchday 4?

Captain Nico Paz. The Como midfielder is projected for 5.0 points against Parma, the fixture the model rates highest in the round at a 75% win probability and 2.26 expected goals, and he is the only player near the top of the projection table whose ceiling is not capped by a clean sheet. Federico Dimarco (5.3) and Giorgio Scalvini (5.1) are the defensive alternatives.

Which budget defenders are best for Matchday 4?

Mehmet Zeki Celik at 4.6m is the best budget defender in the game - 4.7 projected points, 1.02 points per million, and a Juventus fixture run that holds up for another four rounds. Johan Vásquez (4.5m, Genoa) matches his ratio at 4.6 points, and Odilon Kossounou (4.9m, Atalanta) returns 4.7 into a 46% clean-sheet fixture.

Should I sell Marcus Thuram before Matchday 4?

Yes. Thuram is projected for 3.2 points on 47 minutes at 10.2m, the weakest points-per-million return of any premium in the game, and Inter travel to Roma in Matchday 5. Gianluca Scamacca at 6.0m is projected for a higher score this round at almost half the price.

Is Nico Paz worth 10.4m in Matchday 4?

For this Matchday only, yes - but not as a long-term hold. Nico Paz has the best attacking projection of the round at 5.0 points, then falls to 3.6 and 3.3 as Como's fixtures turn. If you buy him, buy him knowing you will likely move him on within two rounds.

What are the best differentials for Tattico Serie A Matchday 4?

Éderson (4.5m, Atalanta) is the best cheap differential at 0.82 points per million and 3.7 projected points, followed by Akor Adams (4.3m, Venezia) at 0.91 per million and Tommaso Baldanzi (4.5m, Genoa) at 3.7. All three free up budget for a premium elsewhere while starting in fixtures the model likes.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool