Tattico Serie A Matchday 4: best buys and captain picks
Tattico Serie A Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Tattico Fantasy Serie A spreads Matchday 4 across four days, from Venezia - Fiorentina on Friday night to Torino - Roma and Inter - Udinese on Monday. All 20 Serie A clubs have a fixture, so there is no blank to plan around. Two games dominate the model: Como host Parma at a 77% win probability, and Inter host Udinese at 75%.
Two things have moved since the last set of numbers. Federico Dimarco (7.3m, INT) no longer has a projection for this round at all - the model has him on zero projected minutes for Matchday 4, and he only re-enters the picture from Matchday 5 (1.7 xP) and Matchday 6 (3.7 xP). And Nico Paz (10.4m, COM) has settled at 5.7 xP. That is still the highest figure of any player in the round, but it is no longer the runaway number it looked like a few days ago: Jacobo Ramon (5.5m, COM) is right behind him on 5.6 xP from a far cheaper slot.
The obvious names are obvious. Como and Inter assets will be in most squads before you read a word of this, and with three players per club the hard cap you cannot buy the whole of Como anyway - ten of their players project 4.0 xP or better. The round is decided in the six or seven slots after the premiums, and that is where this preview spends its time. Compare the whole pool on the Tattico player picks page before you commit anything.
The Matchday 4 fixtures that matter
Four matches carry the round. Each row below is one team with its own numbers from the model's current market probabilities, pulled fresh for this round.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | [H]Parma | 77% | 2.33 | 58% |
| Parma | [A]Como | 6% | 0.55 | 10% |
| Inter | [H]Udinese | 75% | 2.47 | 49% |
| Udinese | [A]Inter | 8% | 0.72 | 8% |
| Atalanta | [H]Cagliari | 61% | 1.84 | 44% |
| Cagliari | [A]Atalanta | 15% | 0.82 | 16% |
| Roma | [A]Torino | 61% | 1.89 | 43% |
| Torino | [H]Roma | 16% | 0.85 | 15% |
Como - Parma is the fixture of the round in both directions. Parma project 0.55 expected goals, the lowest figure on the board, and Como's 58% clean sheet probability is the highest. Udinese at Inter is the other extreme: 0.72 expected goals for, 2.47 against, and a 8% clean sheet chance. Beyond those two, Atalanta host Cagliari at 61% with the Cagliari attack down at 0.82 expected goals, and Roma travel to Torino at 61% with Torino projected for 0.85.
Juventus are at Sassuolo at 58% with 1.84 expected goals, Napoli host Bologna at 54%, and Genoa host Frosinone at 46%. The marquee tie, Lazio - Milan, is one to watch rather than to invest in: Lazio 29%, Milan 41%, and neither attack projects past 1.31 expected goals. Check the full Tattico Serie A schedule and the current market probabilities before you spend a transfer.
Best goalkeeper picks for Matchday 4
Jean Butez (5.4m, COM) is the standout, and not narrowly. Como's clean sheet probability against Parma is the highest of the round, which carries him to 5.5 xP - more than any other keeper, and behind only two outfield players. He is not priced as a premium either, which is the whole point of him.
Josep Martinez (6.0m, INT) at 5.0 xP is the alternative if you already hold three Como players, with Inter's 49% clean sheet chance behind him. Marco Carnesecchi (5.5m, ATA) (4.7 xP) is the third route. If you are thinking past this week, Guglielmo Vicario (6.0m, JUV) is quietly the best goalkeeper in the game on a six-round view - a weighted score of 16.3, ahead of every keeper in the pool, because the Juventus programme holds up long after this round.
Budget option: Justin Bijlow (4.5m, GEN) at 4.0 xP. His points-per-million is 0.89, and Genoa hosting Frosinone is a genuine clean sheet fixture rather than a hopeful one. Confirm he is in the XI on the predicted lineups page before the deadline.
Best defenders for Matchday 4
Defence is where this round is won. Jacobo Ramon (5.5m, COM) tops the position at 5.6 xP on a 50% individual clean sheet projection, the highest of any defender in the game this week. Álex Valle (5.5m, COM) is barely behind on 5.5 xP and carries more attacking threat from the flank. Trevoh Chalobah (5.5m, COM) completes the Como back line at 5.0 xP - and with the three-per-club cap you will have to choose between them and Nico Paz.
Outside Como: Giorgio Scalvini (5.5m, ATA) at 5.3 xP, Carlos Augusto (6.0m, INT) at 5.3 xP with the highest assist projection of any defender in the round (0.12 pA), and Alessandro Bastoni (6.5m, INT) at 5.2 xP. The Napoli pair, Amir Rrahmani (5.5m, NAP) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.5m, NAP), both sit on 4.9 xP at home to Bologna.
Budget defender of the week: Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.7m, JUV). He projects 4.9 xP at Sassuolo, which is a points-per-million of 1.04 - the best ratio of any defender in the pool - and his weighted six-round score of 17.1 is the highest of any player in the game, keeper or outfielder. If you only make one transfer this week, this is the one that keeps paying. Ricardo Mangas (4.4m, MON) (4.4 xP, 1.00 per million) and Danilho Doekhi (4.7m, LAZ) (4.0 xP) are the other cheap routes.
Best midfielders for Matchday 4
Nico Paz (10.4m, COM) is the premium and the captain conversation in one. 5.7 xP is the highest number in the round, built on 0.40 projected goals and 0.23 projected assists against the weakest attack on the board. He is expensive, and this is the week he justifies it.
The value play in the same match is Assane Diao (5.2m, COM) at 5.0 xP for a fraction of the price - 0.96 points per million, the best of any midfielder projected above 3.0 this week. Piotr Zielinski (7.1m, INT) (4.5 xP) and Chico Conceicao (7.4m, JUV) (4.5 xP) are the mid-price routes into Inter and Juventus, and Charles De Ketelaere (7.2m, ATA) at 4.2 xP is the Atalanta option against Cagliari.
Budget midfielder of the week: Antonio Vergara (5.0m, NAP) at 4.2 xP. Napoli at home to Bologna is a good fixture, and he is priced at the floor of the position. Tommaso Baldanzi (4.5m, GEN) (3.9 xP) is the other cheap name worth a look, and Lucas Da Cunha (6.9m, COM) (4.0 xP) is interesting for a different reason - he holds a 72% penalty share for Como, which is real ceiling in a match they are expected to control.
Best forwards for Matchday 4
Lautaro Martinez (11.7m, INT) leads the line on 5.1 xP and, more usefully, on 0.59 projected goals - the highest goal projection of any player in Matchday 4. Against a Udinese side projected for 0.72 expected goals of their own, that is the cleanest ceiling play in the round.
Donyell Malen (10.5m, ROM) is the near-equal at 5.0 xP and 0.55 projected goals, with the added edge of a 75% penalty share at Roma. Anastasios Douvikas (8.2m, COM) (4.9 xP) is the Como centre forward and the direct way into that fixture up front. Randal Kolo Muani (7.3m, JUV) at 4.4 xP and Paulo Dybala (8.8m, ROM) at 4.3 xP round out the premium tier.
Cheaper: Akor Adams (4.3m, VEN) at 3.9 xP is the best points-per-million forward in the game this week at 0.91, and Lorenzo Colombo (5.0m, GEN) (3.8 xP) carries a 85% penalty share at the bottom of the price range - a rare combination.
Captain picks for Matchday 4
The captain scores double in Tattico Serie A, so this is the single biggest decision of your week.
- Nico Paz - 5.7 xP, the highest projection in the round, in the best fixture in the round. Como at home to a side projected for 0.55 expected goals is about as favourable as the model gets. This is the pick.
- Lautaro Martinez - 5.1 xP, but the highest goal projection on the board at 0.59. If you want variance rather than the safest expected return, the Inter armband is the one that wins a week outright.
- Donyell Malen - 5.0 xP with 0.55 projected goals and the Roma penalties. The differential captain of the three.
Jacobo Ramon and Jean Butez both out-project the two forwards on raw xP, but a defender's and a keeper's points come mostly from a clean sheet, and a clean sheet is capped. For a doubled score you want the pick that can return three times its projection, not the one with the highest floor. The optimal teams solver ranks the full armband list against the current numbers.
Hidden gems: the cheap picks that decide Matchday 4
Tattico ownership is not carried in our data feed, so treat these as price-and-role differentials rather than ownership plays - cheap players in good fixtures whose projections are out of line with what they cost.
- Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.7m, JUV) - 4.9 xP, 1.04 per million, and the best weighted six-round score in the entire game (17.1).
- Ricardo Mangas (4.4m, MON) - 4.4 xP at 1.00 per million, and Monza at Lecce is a better clean sheet spot than the price suggests.
- Antonio Vergara (5.0m, NAP) - 4.2 xP, Napoli at home, at the floor of the midfield price range.
- Akor Adams (4.3m, VEN) - 3.9 xP and 0.91 per million, the best value forward on the board.
- Lorenzo Colombo (5.0m, GEN) - 3.8 xP with a 85% penalty share, which is the kind of ceiling you almost never get this cheap.
- Danilho Doekhi (4.7m, LAZ) - 4.0 xP with a weighted score of 14.9, a defender who keeps his value well past this round.
Who to sell before Matchday 4
Scott McTominay (8.6m, NAP) is the clearest sale in the game. The data carries a return date of 17 October, and his projection is 0.0 xP in every round from now through Matchday 9. That is a premium-priced slot returning nothing for six weeks.
Christian Pulisic (8.9m, MIL) projects 1.5 xP on 21 projected minutes, and it gets worse rather than better - 1.0 xP in Matchday 5 and 0.9 in Matchday 6. Marcus Thuram (10.2m, INT) is the other expensive name the model has cooled on: 3.3 xP on 35 minutes, with 2.1 xP to follow. Nick Woltemade (9.0m, JUV) (2.8 xP, 44 minutes) is in the same bracket.
One name not to sell: Federico Dimarco (7.3m, INT). He has no projection for this round, but the model brings him back at 1.7 xP in Matchday 5 and 3.7 in Matchday 6. Moving him out and back in again costs more in transfers than the one blank week costs in points.
Avoid buying into Parma, Udinese, Cagliari, Torino and Sassuolo this week - all five are projected under 20% to win, and all five project under 0.93 expected goals.
The Matchday 4 to Matchday 9 plan
If you are planning past this week, the Juventus defence is the strongest six-round block in the game. Mehmet Zeki Celik (weighted 17.1), Gleison Bremer (17.0), Pierre Kalulu (16.4) and Guglielmo Vicario (16.3) occupy four of the top five weighted scores in the entire pool. The cap is three players per club, so pick three of those four.
The Como run softens after this week - [H]Parma at 77%, then [A]Frosinone at 60%, then [H]Roma at only 37%. That makes the Como block a buy-now-review-later position rather than a set-and-forget one. Inter run the other way: [H]Udinese at 75%, then [A]Roma at a much harder 35%, then [H]Parma at 78% in Matchday 6 - so an Inter defender bought this week is worth holding through the awkward middle fixture.
The Napoli pair are the steady hold in between: Amir Rrahmani and Giovanni Di Lorenzo both carry weighted scores above 16.0 across the next six rounds. More rounds and more analysis in the Tattico preview hub, and the Tattico Serie A Matchday 3 preview shows how the last round's picks were framed. New to the format? Start with our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Tattico Serie A Matchday 4?
Nico Paz. He projects 5.7 xP, the highest of any player in Matchday 4, and Como host a Parma side the model has at only 0.55 expected goals. Lautaro Martinez (5.1 xP, 0.59 projected goals) is the higher-variance alternative if you want the armband on a striker.
Which budget defenders are best for Matchday 4?
Mehmet Zeki Celik at 4.7m is the best in the game right now - 4.9 xP this week, 1.04 points per million, and the highest weighted six-round score of any player in the pool. Ricardo Mangas (4.4m, 4.4 xP) and Danilho Doekhi (4.7m, 4.0 xP) are the next two.
Should I sell Scott McTominay before Matchday 4?
Yes. The data carries a return date of 17 October for him and projects 0.0 xP in every round from Matchday 4 through Matchday 9. There is no version of the next six weeks where holding him returns points.
Is Federico Dimarco worth keeping for Matchday 4?
Keep him, but do not count on him this week. He has no projection for Matchday 4 at all, and the model brings him back at 1.7 xP in Matchday 5 and 3.7 xP in Matchday 6. Selling and re-buying costs more than the single blank week.
Which teams should I target for Matchday 4 clean sheets?
Como first, at 58% against the lowest-projected attack in the round, then Inter at 49% and Atalanta at 44%. Juventus at Sassuolo (40%) is the best of the away options and the one that holds up best over the following rounds.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.