Super Manager Runde 15: captain picks and best buys
Super Manager Runde 15 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Super Manager Runde 15 opens the final three rounds of the autumn game. Runde 15, 16 and 17 are all that is left, so every transfer you make now is judged on exactly one program: the next three fixtures. Runde 15 itself runs from 20 to 23 November, after a break of almost two weeks since Runde 14, and it is the last comfortable moment to reshape a squad before the run-in.
One club dominates that run-in. AGF have the best three-round program in the game by a distance, and the five highest projections of the round all belong to AGF players. With a maximum of 4 players per club, the real question this round is not whether to own AGF but which four AGF players earn the slots, and what to do with the rest of the squad around them. The full numbers sit in our Super Manager player picks, and last round's thinking is in the Super Manager Runde 14 preview.
Runde 15-17 programs: whose last three rounds are worth owning
AGF's [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN is the best run left in the season: 7.38 expected goals and 1.45 expected clean sheets over three rounds, with a 79% win probability against Lyngby this round. No other team reaches 6 expected goals. All three opponents are among the four weakest programs in the table, which is why AGF defenders, midfielders and forwards all project well at once.
Nordsjælland are the second-best program, but the shape matters. [H]FCK → [A]OB → [H]LYN starts with FC København at home and ends with Lyngby at home (40% clean sheet chance in Runde 17). Their players are holds rather than urgent buys: the best fixture comes last.
Viborg have the flattest decent run: [H]RAN → [A]LYN → [H]SØN, around 1.5 to 1.8 expected goals every round and roughly a 30% clean sheet chance each time. That is the "three decent fixtures" shape that makes a player easy to hold to the end. Brøndby IF ([H]FCM → [A]SØN → [H]OB) are similar but weaker in Runde 17.
At the bottom, Lyngby (2.89 expected goals over three rounds), Silkeborg (3.27) and Randers FC (3.37) are the programs to avoid. Silkeborg host AGF in Runde 16 and Randers visit AGF in Runde 17, so both still have to face the strongest team in the league. FC København start at Nordsjælland with a 25% win probability, but [H]FCM → [A]ACH behind it is far better.
| Team | Runde 15 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 15-17) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGF | [H]LYN | 79% | 2.62 | 52% | [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN | 7.38 | 1.45 |
| FCN | [H]FCK | 50% | 1.81 | 29% | [H]FCK → [A]OB → [H]LYN | 5.95 | 0.91 |
| BIF | [H]FCM | 48% | 1.79 | 27% | [H]FCM → [A]SØN → [H]OB | 5.03 | 0.83 |
| VFF | [H]RAN | 48% | 1.68 | 31% | [H]RAN → [A]LYN → [H]SØN | 4.92 | 0.89 |
| FCK | [A]FCN | 25% | 1.24 | 16% | [A]FCN → [H]FCM → [A]ACH | 4.64 | 0.73 |
| OB | [A]SØN | 49% | 1.76 | 30% | [A]SØN → [H]FCN → [A]BIF | 4.62 | 0.71 |
| FCM | [A]BIF | 27% | 1.30 | 17% | [A]BIF → [A]FCK → [H]SIF | 4.61 | 0.64 |
| ACH | [H]SIF | 50% | 1.82 | 28% | [H]SIF → [A]RAN → [H]FCK | 4.53 | 0.71 |
| SØN | [H]OB | 26% | 1.22 | 17% | [H]OB → [H]BIF → [A]VFF | 3.62 | 0.53 |
| RAN | [A]VFF | 26% | 1.17 | 19% | [A]VFF → [H]ACH → [A]AGF | 3.37 | 0.50 |
| SIF | [A]ACH | 26% | 1.26 | 16% | [A]ACH → [H]AGF → [A]FCM | 3.27 | 0.39 |
| LYN | [A]AGF | 7% | 0.66 | 7% | [A]AGF → [H]VFF → [A]FCN | 2.89 | 0.38 |
Fixture dates and kick-off times are on the Super Manager schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind the win and clean sheet figures are on the market probabilities page.
The four AGF slots for Runde 15
The cap of 4 per club is the binding rule this round. Ranked on the three-round total, the AGF order is Tobias Bech (372k), James Bogere (358k), Callum McCowatt (342k), Kristian Arnstad (336k), Frederik Emmery (290k), goalkeeper Jesper Hansen (270k) and defender Frederik Tingager (231k). The attackers are the best use of the slots because the gap to the best non-AGF alternative is biggest there: the best midfielder outside AGF, Mohamed Elyounoussi, projects 250k over the same three rounds, while the best goalkeeper outside AGF, Andreas Hansen, is only 67k behind Jesper Hansen.
So if you can afford it, the strongest block is Bech, Bogere, McCowatt and Arnstad. If funds are tight, Bogere is the one AGF player nobody should skip, and Emmery or the cheap defender Gretarsson are the cheaper ways to fill the fourth slot. The optimal teams for Super Manager solve that trade-off live against every price.
Best goalkeepers for Runde 15
Jesper Hansen (5.2m, AGF) is the best goalkeeper for the run-in: [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN, 96k → 86k → 88k, 270k over three rounds. AGF carry a 52% clean sheet chance this round and 44% and 50% in the next two. Only 2.8% of managers own him. The catch is the club cap: he only makes sense if you are not using all four AGF slots on attackers.
Kasper Kiilerich (3.9m, VFF) is the value pick and the simplest hold: [H]RAN → [A]LYN → [H]SØN gives 63k → 61k → 64k, a flat 188k, at a lower price than every goalkeeper above him. He is already in 20.7% of squads and there is no reason to move him.
Andreas Hansen (5.4m, FCN) is the alternative for managers who want to stay out of the AGF block in goal: [H]FCK → [A]OB → [H]LYN, 62k → 57k → 84k. Runde 17 against Lyngby is the payoff, so he is a hold, not a this-round buy. Matej Delac (3.7m, ACH) projects 62k this round against Silkeborg but drops to 44k by Runde 17, which makes him a one-round option at best.
Best defenders for Runde 15
Runar Robinsønn Norheim (4.6m, FCN) is still the top defender in the game over three rounds: [H]FCK → [A]OB → [H]LYN, 87k → 75k → 124k, 286k. He is owned by 40.7% and keeps his place for the whole run-in; the Lyngby game in Runde 17 is worth 124k on its own.
Frederik Tingager (3.8m, AGF) is the premium AGF defender: [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN, 87k → 64k → 80k, 231k. He matches Norheim this round and costs less.
Daniel Gretarsson (2.6m, AGF) is the budget defender of the round and a genuine differential at 0.6% ownership: same AGF program, 80k → 62k → 77k, 219k over three rounds. That is the best points per million of any defender with a full program, and his fee is under 30k. Tobias Mølgaard (2.6m, AGF) is the same idea at the same price (193k) with slightly lower attacking output.
Outside AGF, Marko Divkovic (5.0m, BIF) fits the steady Brøndby IF run ([H]FCM → [A]SØN → [H]OB, 61k → 68k → 48k), and Marcus McCoy (3.7m, OB) is front-loaded at 73k → 44k → 46k: worth it for Runde 15 at [A]SØN, much less after it. Oliver Bundgaard Kristensen (2.7m, VFF), owned by 26.5%, is a fine cheap hold on Viborg's flat run (52k → 48k → 52k).
Best midfielders for Runde 15
James Bogere (2.9m, AGF) is the best value in the game: [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN, 134k → 93k → 131k, 358k over three rounds at under 3m. He is the model's highest-scoring midfielder for the run-in. The risk is minutes: he projects 58 minutes this round and fewer in Runde 16, so the dip to 93k is a rotation dip, not a fixture one. At this price the risk is easy to carry.
Callum McCowatt (5.7m, AGF) follows on the same program with 127k → 96k → 119k and 342k. Kristian Arnstad (7.1m, AGF) is the most secure of the AGF midfielders: AGF's penalty taker, 82 projected minutes, and the steadiest line in the block at 111k → 119k → 106k. He is also the best Runde 16 captain in the game.
Frederik Emmery (4.1m, AGF) is the template AGF midfielder at 26.8% ownership and remains a good player (104k → 87k → 99k). He is a hold if you own him, but if you are choosing four AGF players from scratch, Bogere outscores him over three rounds for less money.
Outside AGF, Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.8m, FCK) has his weakest fixture first: [A]FCN → [H]FCM → [A]ACH gives 68k → 95k → 87k. That is a reason to keep him, not to buy him now. Marcus Younis (3.7m, BIF) is a flat, cheap option on Brøndby IF's run (59k → 68k → 62k), and Olti Hyseni (4.7m, BIF) is fine for two more rounds (72k → 69k → 49k) before [H]OB in Runde 17.
Best forwards for Runde 15
Tobias Bech (7.9m, AGF) is the top projection of the round and of the run-in: [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN, 136k → 106k → 130k, 372k. Only 9.5% of managers own him, which makes him the most valuable non-template premium in the game for the last three rounds. He is also the first-choice captain for Runde 15 and Runde 17.
Alexander Lind (6.8m, FCN) and Dorian Hanza (5.4m, VFF) are the two holds. Lind's [H]FCK → [A]OB → [H]LYN (87k → 72k → 118k) peaks at the end; Hanza's [H]RAN → [A]LYN → [H]SØN (89k → 77k → 89k) is level all the way. Both are owned by a quarter to a third of managers (24.1% and 30.8%) and both should stay.
Adrian Justinussen (2.9m, ACH) is the cheap forward for this round. Horsens' penalty taker projects 95k against Silkeborg at home, more than Hanza, at a little over half the price. [A]RAN → [H]FCK behind it is weaker (95k → 70k → 52k), so treat him as a cheap pick for Runde 15 that still holds value afterwards rather than a long-term premium. Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan (3.8m, ACH) has the same shape (93k → 70k → 53k). Charly Horneman (4.4m, VFF) is the steadier mid-price option on Viborg's run (74k → 70k → 79k).
Super Manager Runde 15 captain picks
The captain scores double, and the top of the round is all AGF.
- Tobias Bech (7.9m, AGF) - 136k against Lyngby at home, the highest projection of the round, with 74 projected minutes.
- Callum McCowatt (5.7m, AGF) - 127k, close behind and more nailed than Bogere.
- Kristian Arnstad (7.1m, AGF) - 111k with the penalties and the safest minutes in the block.
James Bogere projects 134k, between Bech and McCowatt, but at 58 projected minutes he is a riskier armband. Plan the captaincy across the run-in: Arnstad has the highest projection in the game for Runde 16 (119k), and Bech and Bogere top Runde 17. Owning Bech and Arnstad gives you a top captain in all three remaining rounds. If your AGF slots are full elsewhere, Justinussen (95k) and Ehibhatiomhan (93k) are the best non-AGF captain options this round.
Differentials for Runde 15
The AGF block is not yet the template. Tobias Bech is at 9.5%, Callum McCowatt at 6.9%, Kristian Arnstad at 7.9% and Jesper Hansen at 2.8%, so the biggest projections of the run-in are also differentials. Beyond AGF, Christian Gammelgaard (3.5m, OB) (0.7% owned) projects 79k at [A]SØN, but [H]FCN → [A]BIF drops him to 49k: a one-round buy, sell again after Runde 15. Julius Madsen (3.6m, ACH) (0.7%) has the same front-loaded shape on Horsens' program (72k → 54k → 39k). Check the predicted lineups before the deadline for any of the cheaper rotation players.
Who to sell before Runde 15
Elias Olafsson (5.6m, FCM) is the clearest sell. He is owned by 17.0%, but the model has Nordin Bakker starting in goal for FC Midtjylland and projects Olafsson for -4k → -1k → 6k over the last three rounds. Why now: there is no fixture in the run-in where that changes, and swapping him for Jesper Hansen gains 269k over three rounds for 108k in fees.
Robert (6.4m, FCK) is the second sell. FC København's [A]FCN → [H]FCM → [A]ACH is not a bad program, but Robert projects only 37k → 61k → 57k on it with 62 projected minutes. Why now: three rounds are left and Runde 15 is his weakest, so every round you wait removes one of the rounds the replacement scores in. Robert to Bogere gains 203k for 93k in fees and frees money for the AGF block.
Prince Junior (5.2m, FCN), owned by 20.9%, has a reasonable program but projects only 35 minutes this round. His 50k → 48k → 76k is a bench player's line on Nordsjælland's run, and the Lyngby game in Runde 17 is the only round he climbs. Why now: the minutes problem is there in Runde 15 already, and the same money buys an AGF starter.
Oliver Ross (4.8m, SIF) has a decent Runde 15 at [A]ACH (49k) but Silkeborg host AGF in Runde 16 and he drops to 21k. Why now: selling into the decent fixture is better than selling out of the bad one, and with only three rounds left there is no recovery window afterwards.
Two popular players are not sells. Mohamed Elyounoussi (53.8% owned) has his worst fixture first and 95k / 87k after it, and swapping him for Arnstad gains 86k over three rounds but costs 159k in fees. Friday Etim (53.4% owned, 57k → 53k → 99k) is the same story: two weak away games, then [H]SIF in Runde 17, and the upgrade to Bech gains only slightly more than its 145k in fees. You can keep both and spend your transfers elsewhere.
More Super Manager analysis is collected in our Super Manager preview hub, and the guides cover the game's mechanics.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Super Manager Runde 15?
Tobias Bech is the top captain pick for Super Manager Runde 15 with 136k projected against Lyngby at home. McCowatt (127k) and Arnstad (111k) are the alternatives, and Arnstad is the best captain for Runde 16.
Which AGF players should I own in Super Manager Runde 15?
Bech, Bogere, McCowatt and Arnstad are the four best AGF players over Runde 15-17, with 372k, 358k, 342k and 336k projected. The cap is 4 per club, and attackers gain the most over their non-AGF alternatives.
Who are the best budget picks for Super Manager Runde 15?
James Bogere (2.9m) and Daniel Gretarsson (2.6m) are the best budget picks: both play AGF's [H]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]RAN program and project 358k and 219k over the last three rounds.
Should I sell Elias Olafsson before Super Manager Runde 15?
Yes. The model has Nordin Bakker starting in FC Midtjylland's goal and projects Olafsson for -4k → -1k → 6k. Jesper Hansen (5.2m) projects 270k over the same three rounds.
Should I sell Mohamed Elyounoussi before Super Manager Runde 15?
No. Runde 15 at Nordsjælland is his weakest fixture, and he projects 95k and 87k after it. The swap to Arnstad does not earn back its 159k in fees over the three rounds that are left.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.