Super Manager Runde 12: captain picks and best buys

Super Manager Runde 12 preview: best buys, captain picks and who to sell

Super Manager Runde 12 opens on Friday with Randers FC against Brøndby IF and closes on Monday night with FC København at home to OB. All twelve Superliga clubs play once, so nobody blanks, and the round is the first of a three-round window that should drive this week's transfers. FC København have the best program in the league again, AGF have the most expected clean sheets over the next three rounds, and FC Midtjylland's injured goalkeeper and defenders are still the clearest sells. Every pick below is judged on its program from Runde 12 to Runde 14, not on this round alone.

The numbers come from the model behind our Super Manager player picks, built on the latest Super Manager predicted lineups. Last round's analysis is in the Super Manager Runde 11 preview, and every earlier round sits in the Super Manager preview hub.

The programs: whose next three Super Manager rounds are worth owning

FC København have the best run on attack by a distance. [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF adds up to 6.59 expected goals, and the OB home game is the strongest single fixture of Runde 12: a 64% win probability and 2.34 expected goals. The trip to Sønderjyske is the softest of the three weeks, but it is still a fixture FC København are expected to win, so this is a program to own for all three rounds.

FC Midtjylland ([H]LYN → [A]FCN → [H]SØN, 6.00) are second on attack and have the best single clean-sheet chance of the round, 38% at home to Lyngby. The Nordsjælland away game in Runde 13 is the week to plan around. AGF are the defensive story: [H]VFF → [A]BIF → [H]ACH gives them 0.97 expected clean sheets, the most of any club, with two home games either side of a trip to Brøndby. Randers FC ([H]BIF → [A]LYN → [H]FCN) have a modest attack at 3.96 expected goals, but 0.76 expected clean sheets puts them fourth for defenders.

At the other end, Sønderjyske carry the fewest expected clean sheets (0.42) after Horsens away, with FC København and FC Midtjylland to follow, and Lyngby ([A]FCM → [H]RAN → [A]SIF) have the weakest attack at 3.19 expected goals. OB are a team whose program turns after this round: the trip to FC København is the hardest fixture of Runde 12, but [H]SIF → [H]VFF behind it is one of the best two-round runs in the league.

All twelve clubs play once in each of Runde 12, 13 and 14, so the totals compare like for like. Brøndby IF are the "sell into" team of the window: Randers away is a good fixture (52% win probability), but AGF at home and FC København away follow, and their players' projections fall with it. Kick-off times are on the Super Manager schedule.

Goalkeepers for Super Manager Runde 12

Diant Ramaj (5.7m, FCK) is the keeper to own. [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF takes him 74k → 74k → 64k, 212k over three rounds, the highest total of any goalkeeper, and the program stays good after that (61k and 65k in Runde 15 and 16). 11.7% of managers own him.

Jesper Hansen (5.1m, AGF) is the differential. AGF's [H]VFF → [A]BIF → [H]ACH is the best defensive program in the league, and it gives him 67k → 54k → 79k, 200k over three rounds, only 12k behind Ramaj for less money. At 1.7% ownership, almost nobody has him, and his trajectory stays high beyond the window (80k in Runde 15).

Nordin Bakker (4.5m, FCM) is a one-round buy. With Elias Olafsson still listed unavailable, the model has Bakker in goal for [H]LYN, and at 74k he is level with Ramaj at the top of the position this round, with FC Midtjylland's 38% clean-sheet chance the best of the week. After that the model brings Olafsson back and Bakker falls to 49k at Nordsjælland and 23k in Runde 14, so buy him for Lyngby and sell again before Runde 13. The 45k fee is the price of one strong week.

This is where the round ranking and the program ranking disagree: Bakker tops this round and Patrick Pentz (70k at Randers) is third, but Pentz's 70k → 52k → 40k follows Brøndby's program downhill. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Ramaj or Hansen. Kasper Kiilerich (VFF, 16.5% owned) is a hold: 38k at AGF is his weak week, and [H]ACH lifts him to 67k in Runde 13.

Defenders for Super Manager Runde 12

Runar Robinsønn Norheim (4.3m, FCN) remains the best defender in the game. [A]SIF → [H]FCM → [A]RAN gives him 87k → 75k → 64k, 225k over three rounds, the highest total in the position, and he is owned by 41.7% of managers for that reason. He is a hold, not a decision.

Felix Beijmo (5.4m, FCK) is the premium route onto the FC København program: 73k → 72k → 59k on [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF, 204k over three rounds, and he is projected for 86 minutes. Asger Sørensen (5.1m, FCK) is the cheaper, low-owned version at 4.1%, with 63k → 62k → 48k, 173k on the same program. Mind the four-per-club limit: owning Elyounoussi, Robert, Ramaj and Beijmo already fills it.

Marko Divkovic (4.7m, BIF) is the top projected defender of this round at 88k, ahead of Norheim, with Brøndby a 52% favourite at Randers. It is a one-round buy: [A]RAN → [H]AGF → [A]FCK takes him 88k → 48k → 32k, so bring him in for Runde 12 and sell again before AGF. The 47k fee is small against a fixture this good.

Jens Martin Gammelby (3.8m, SIF) is the budget defender who holds. He is a penalty taker, and [H]FCN → [A]OB → [H]LYN gives a flat 48k → 45k → 52k, 144k over three rounds, then 57k in Runde 15. Daniel Gretarsson (2.6m, AGF) is the cheapest way onto AGF's clean sheets at 0.7% ownership: 43k → 28k → 48k on [H]VFF → [A]BIF → [H]ACH. Rasmus Carstensen (AGF, 4.4m) has the same program and 160k, but is projected for 60 minutes.

Magnus Andersen (OB, 2.2m) is one to plan for rather than buy: 21k at FC København this round, then 56k and 42k on [H]SIF → [H]VFF. He is a buy from Runde 13.

Midfielders for Super Manager Runde 12

Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.7m, FCK) is the best player in the game and owned by 55.5% of managers. [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF gives him 146k → 140k → 115k, 401k over three rounds, nearly 100k more than anybody else. He takes FC København's penalties and is projected for 0.49 expected goals against OB. If you do not own him, this is the round to fix that, because the program starts now.

Robert (6.2m, FCK) is the second piece of the FC København attack at 29.4% ownership: 105k → 108k → 89k, 303k over three rounds, and Runde 13 at Sønderjyske is his best week. Kristian Arnstad (7.1m, AGF) is the premium differential. He takes AGF's penalties, and [H]VFF → [A]BIF → [H]ACH gives him 91k → 62k → 95k, 247k over three rounds, the third-highest midfield total, at only 9.0% ownership.

Rami Al Hajj (2.8m, SIF) is the hidden gem of the round. [H]FCN → [A]OB → [H]LYN takes him 60k → 59k → 81k, 201k over three rounds, more than Philip Billing (177k), who costs more than twice as much, and only 1.4% of managers own him. Teammate Lucas Riisgaard (3.0m, SIF) gives almost the same on the same program, 62k → 55k → 80k, 197k over three rounds. The Lyngby home game in Runde 14 is the week both of them peak.

Stanley Iheanacho (3.8m, FCM) is the best budget midfielder over the window: [H]LYN → [A]FCN → [H]SØN gives 81k → 56k → 83k, 220k over three rounds. 25.1% own him, and he is worth keeping through Runde 14. Frederik Emmery (3.9m, AGF) follows with 74k → 50k → 74k, 197k on AGF's program, and is a hold for the 17.4% who have him.

Mads Frøkjær-Jensen (BIF, 4.5m) projects 84k at Randers, fourth among midfielders this round, but 84k → 50k → 35k is the Brøndby pattern again: a one-round buy at most. Jann-Fiete Arp (OB, 6.4m) is the other way round. He takes OB's penalties, and 40k at FC København is followed by 91k and 75k on [H]SIF → [H]VFF, so he is a buy from Runde 13, not this week.

Forwards for Super Manager Runde 12

Friday Etim (6.3m, FCM) is the top forward this round and over the window. [H]LYN → [A]FCN → [H]SØN takes him 101k → 68k → 89k, 258k over three rounds, and 50.8% of managers already own him. The Nordsjælland trip is the dip; the two home games either side are why he is a hold.

Andreas Cornelius (5.9m, FCK) is the low-owned forward on the best program: 84k → 76k → 63k on [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF, 223k over three rounds, at 3.4% ownership. He is projected for 49 minutes, so check the predicted lineups before the deadline. He does not fit if you already own four FC København players.

Janni Serra (4.7m, AGF) is the alternative with no club-limit problem: 84k → 56k → 81k on [H]VFF → [A]BIF → [H]ACH, 221k over three rounds, and only 2.9% own him. His projection keeps rising after the window, to 93k in Runde 15. Osaze De Rosario (3.8m, SØN) is the budget forward. He is projected for 0.38 expected goals at Horsens, second among forwards only to Etim's 0.40, and 83k → 53k → 57k on [A]ACH → [H]FCK → [A]FCM adds up to 193k at 1.5% ownership.

Here the round and the program disagree again. Noah Ganaus (OB, 6.0m) has the same three-round total as Cornelius, 223k, but only 43k of it comes this round at FC København; 99k and 81k follow on [H]SIF → [H]VFF. If you are buying a forward this week, buy Serra or Cornelius; if you can wait a round, Ganaus is the Runde 13 buy. Dorian Hanza (VFF, 22.0% owned) is a hold for the same reason: 48k at AGF, then 90k at home to Horsens.

Captain picks for Super Manager Runde 12

The captain scores double in Super Manager, and Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.7m, FCK) is the pick: 146k projected at home to OB, 41k clear of anybody else. He is also the top projection in Runde 13 (140k at Sønderjyske) and Runde 14 (115k against Brøndby), so the armband stays with him for the whole window. Robert (105k, the same fixture) and Friday Etim (101k at home to Lyngby) are the alternatives this round. Etim is the differential armband for the half of the game that does not own him, while Robert is the natural back-up in Runde 13, where he projects 108k. Kristian Arnstad (91k) is the outside option and the second-best captain in Runde 14 (95k at home to Horsens).

Who to sell before Super Manager Runde 12

Elias Olafsson (5.6m, FCM) (18.8% owned) is the clearest sell. He is listed unavailable, and the model keeps him out of the FC Midtjylland goal for [H]LYN and [A]FCN, so he projects -5k in both Runde 12 and Runde 13. Why now: Lyngby at home is FC Midtjylland's best clean-sheet chance of the window, and he misses it. Ramaj or Hansen give you a keeper for the whole program instead.

Magnus Jensen (3.6m, FCM) (8.4%) is in the same position, listed unavailable with -5k → -5k → 9k on [H]LYN → [A]FCN → [H]SØN. Mads Emil Madsen (5.2m, FCK) (8.9%) is also listed unavailable and reads -5k → -5k → 16k. Why now: FC København's program, the best in the league, starts this round, and he is not part of it; that money belongs on Robert or Sørensen.

Olti Hyseni (4.4m, BIF) (25.5% owned) is the "sell into" call. [A]RAN is a good fixture and 76k is a respectable score, so this is not a bad week for him. But [H]AGF and [A]FCK follow, and he drops to 43k and 31k. Rami Al Hajj costs less, gives up 16k this round and projects 51k more over the three. That gap is why the switch is worth making now rather than after Randers.

Alexander Lind (6.6m, FCN) (27.0%) and Rasmus Kristensen (5.5m, FCM) (15.3%) are minutes sells. Nordsjælland's [A]SIF → [H]FCM → [A]RAN is a fine program, but Lind is projected for 45 minutes and reads 67k → 60k → 50k, 177k at 6.6m; Cornelius or Serra cost less and project more already this round. Kristensen has a good fixture at home to Lyngby, but 67 projected minutes give 49k → 27k → 47k, 123k at 5.5m, against Sørensen's 173k at 5.1m. Why now: in both cases the replacement out-projects him from the first round, so there is nothing to gain by waiting.

Juho Laehteenmaeki (3.5m, FCN) (27.9%) is projected for 56 minutes and reads 42k → 34k → 33k on the same Nordsjælland program; Gammelby is 35k better over three rounds for 0.3m more. Jacob Broechner Ambaek (6.4m, BIF) (10.1%) is projected for 33 minutes, and 54k → 33k → 24k on Brøndby's falling program is the weakest three-round return per million among the popular forwards.

For the exact squad these numbers add up to, the Super Manager optimal teams solve it live, and the Super Manager market probabilities show the bookmaker view behind every fixture.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Super Manager Runde 12?

Mohamed Elyounoussi is the captain, at 146k projected at home to OB, ahead of Robert (105k) and Friday Etim (101k). He is also the top projection in Runde 13 and Runde 14.

Who are the best budget picks for Super Manager Runde 12?

Rami Al Hajj (2.8m) projects 201k and Lucas Riisgaard (3.0m) 197k over Runde 12 to 14 on Silkeborg's program, Stanley Iheanacho (3.8m) projects 220k, and Osaze De Rosario (3.8m) is the cheap forward at 193k. More reading is in the TheFantasyTool guides.

Should I sell Olti Hyseni before Super Manager Runde 12?

Yes, if you are making a transfer this round. Randers away is a decent 76k fixture, but he falls to 43k and 31k against AGF and FC København, and Rami Al Hajj projects 51k more over the three rounds for less money.

Who are the best differentials for Super Manager Runde 12?

Rami Al Hajj (1.4% owned, 201k over three rounds), Jesper Hansen (1.7%, 200k), Janni Serra (2.9%, 221k), Andreas Cornelius (3.4%, 223k) and Kristian Arnstad (9.0%, 247k) are the strongest low-ownership picks.

Which team has the best fixtures from Super Manager Runde 12?

FC København: [H]OB → [A]SØN → [H]BIF adds up to 6.59 expected goals, the best attack program in the league. AGF have the most expected clean sheets, 0.97 over Runde 12 to 14.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.