Super Manager Runde 11: captain picks and best buys

Super Manager Runde 11 preview: best buys, captain picks and who to sell

Super Manager Runde 11 starts on Friday with AC Horsens against Randers FC, and it opens a three-round window that decides most transfers this week. FC København have the best program in the Superliga, Nordsjælland have two away trips that look winnable, and the predicted lineups have moved since the weekend: two Randers players who looked like cheap buys are now out of the starting XI, and Nordsjælland's midfield minutes have settled on Hjalte Rasmussen and Ibrahim Adel. Every pick below is judged on its program from Runde 11 to Runde 13, not on this round alone.

The numbers come from the model behind our Super Manager player picks, refreshed after the latest Super Manager predicted lineups. Last round's analysis is in the Super Manager Runde 10 preview, and every earlier round sits in the Super Manager preview hub.

The programs: whose next three Super Manager rounds are worth owning

FC København have the clear best run. [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN adds up to 6.56 expected goals and 0.94 expected clean sheets, both the best in the league, and the home game against AGF is the strongest single fixture of Runde 11 (57% win probability). This is a program to buy into now, before its first good week, not halfway through it.

Nordsjælland ([A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM, 5.64) and FC Midtjylland ([A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN, 5.30) follow on attack. Randers FC are the defensive story: their attack is modest at 4.01 expected goals, but [A]ACH → [H]BIF → [A]LYN gives them 0.88 expected clean sheets, second only to FC København. FC Midtjylland (0.77) and Brøndby IF ([A]OB → [A]RAN → [H]AGF, 0.75) are next. At the other end, Lyngby ([H]FCN → [A]FCM → [H]RAN) carry only 3.32 expected goals, the weakest attack in the table, which is exactly why the teams visiting them are worth owning.

All twelve clubs play once in each of Runde 11, 12 and 13, so the totals compare like for like, and nobody blanks in Runde 11. The full kick-off list is on the Super Manager schedule.

Goalkeepers for Super Manager Runde 11

Diant Ramaj (5.7m, FCK) is the keeper to own for the program. [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN takes him 69k → 74k → 75k, 217k over three rounds, the highest total of any goalkeeper, and he rises after this round rather than falling. Andreas Hansen (FCN) matches him at 69k this round, but his trajectory falls (69k → 62k → 53k). If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Ramaj; if you already own Hansen, he is a fine hold for one more round.

Paul Izzo (3.7m, RAN) is the value pick: [A]ACH → [H]BIF → [A]LYN gives 61k → 51k → 67k, 178k over three rounds, at 2.8% ownership. The Brøndby home game in Runde 12 is the one soft spot in an otherwise strong defensive run. The new name in goal is Nordin Bakker (4.5m, FCM). With Elias Olafsson listed injured, the model has Bakker in the FC Midtjylland goal for the whole window: [A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN reads 61k → 75k → 51k, 187k over three rounds, and only 0.4% of managers own him.

Mads Hedenstad Christiansen (AGF) is one to plan for rather than buy. His Runde 11 trip to FC København is worth only 37k, but 37k → 68k → 54k → 80k → 80k → 70k across Runde 11 to 16 makes him the best keeper of the later rounds. You can wait a round on him.

Defenders for Super Manager Runde 11

Runar Robinsønn Norheim (4.3m, FCN) is in 41.6% of teams, and the program says keep him. [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM gives 98k → 85k → 74k, 257k over three rounds, the best of any defender, and his 98k is the second-highest projection of any player this round. He is projected for 81 minutes with 0.23 expected goals at Lyngby, so he scores like a midfielder. The trajectory does fall from Runde 12, so he is a hold for now, not a set-and-forget defender.

Felix Beijmo (5.4m, FCK) is the premium buy for the FC København run: [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN takes him 67k → 74k → 74k, 216k over three rounds. The two rounds after this one are worth more than this one, so the buy has to be in before the run starts. Asger Sørensen (5.1m, FCK) (58k → 63k → 63k, 184k) is the cheaper way into the same defence at 3.8% ownership. Remember the cap of four players per club: Elyounoussi, Robert, Cornelius, Ramaj and Beijmo all make a case on this program, so one of them has to miss out.

Marko Divkovic (4.7m, BIF) has the second-best defender projection this round at 68k. [A]OB → [A]RAN → [H]AGF reads 68k → 61k → 49k, 178k over three rounds, and Runde 13 at home to AGF is the weakest of the three, so he is a two-round buy rather than a long hold. Jens Martin Gammelby (3.8m, SIF) takes Silkeborg's penalties and projects 63k → 49k → 45k on [A]SØN → [H]FCN → [A]OB: the best week is this one, so he suits a manager who wants one strong round from a mid-price defender. Every defender's numbers are in the full Super Manager player picks.

The budget defenders changed most since the weekend. Martin André Sjølstad is no longer in the predicted Randers XI for the Horsens game, so he drops out. Nikolas Dyhr (3.1m, RAN) is the cheap way onto the Randers clean sheets instead: [A]ACH → [H]BIF → [A]LYN gives 52k → 39k → 54k, 146k over three rounds, at 1.6% ownership. Markus Walker (2.6m, FCN) is the one-round play: 60k at Lyngby is 23.3k per million, the best value of any defender this round, but [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM drops him to 60k → 44k → 32k. Buy him for Runde 11 and sell again straight after it.

Rasmus Carstensen (AGF) is a buy for later: 24k → 58k → 38k → 57k → 68k → 51k from Runde 11 to 16 shows the FC København away game is the dip and the run behind it is good.

Midfielders for Super Manager Runde 11

Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.7m, FCK) is the best player in the game over the next three rounds and is owned by 54.9% of managers. [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN takes him 121k → 137k → 132k, 390k over three rounds. He is FC København's penalty taker, and he tops the projections in all three rounds. If you do not own him, this is the round to fix it, because his best fixture comes next week.

Robert (6.2m, FCK) is the second FC København premium: 95k → 113k → 112k, 319k over three rounds on [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN. Like Beijmo, his best rounds are the two after this one.

Hjalte Rasmussen (3.3m, FCN) is the biggest mover of the week. He is now projected for 63 minutes at Lyngby, and 94k at 3.3m is the fourth-highest projection of any player this round. [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM reads 94k → 75k → 64k, 232k over three rounds, so the value is front-loaded: this is the round to buy him. Ibrahim Adel (5.0m, FCN) is the steadier option on the same [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM program at 8.9% ownership: 78k → 82k → 70k, 229k, with Runde 12 at Silkeborg his best week.

Behind Hjalte Rasmussen, Rami Al Hajj (2.8m, SIF) is the best budget midfielder for the window. [A]SØN → [H]FCN → [A]OB gives 79k → 68k → 62k, 209k over three rounds, and Runde 14 climbs again to 83k, so he is a hold rather than a rotation. Lucas Riisgaard (3.0m, SIF) (77k → 59k → 54k on [A]SØN → [H]FCN → [A]OB) is the popular version of the same idea at 10.2%.

Yamirou Ouorou (3.0m, ACH) is the hidden gem of the round. At 0.5% ownership he projects 70k → 78k → 50k, 198k over three rounds on [H]RAN → [H]SØN → [A]VFF, and the predicted lineup has him starting on Friday. The two home games are the reason; the Viborg trip in Runde 13 is where you can move him on. Mike Themsen (3.2m, RAN) is also in the predicted Randers XI for Friday and projects 69k → 53k → 61k on [A]ACH → [H]BIF → [A]LYN, 183k over three rounds at 2.0% ownership.

Stanley Iheanacho (3.8m, FCM) (24.7% owned) is a hold: [A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN gives 70k → 83k → 55k, and Runde 14 at home climbs back to 81k. Two midfielders are worth planning for rather than buying. Kristian Arnstad (AGF) reads 35k → 81k → 55k on [A]FCK → [H]VFF → [A]BIF: the FC København away game is the dip, and Runde 12 at home to Viborg is where his program turns, so you can wait a round on him. Jann-Fiete Arp (OB) is the same story one round later: 56k → 37k → 90k on [H]BIF → [A]FCK → [H]SIF, with the Silkeborg home game in Runde 13 his week.

Forwards for Super Manager Runde 11

Andreas Cornelius (5.9m, FCK) is the differential of the round. At 3.0% ownership he projects 81k → 84k → 76k on [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN, 242k over three rounds, the best total of any forward. He costs less than Etim and edges him over the window.

Friday Etim (6.3m, FCM) is owned by 49.2% and should stay that way for now. [A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN gives 83k → 94k → 62k, 239k over three rounds, and the Lyngby home game in Runde 12 is his best round. The trip to Nordsjælland in Runde 13 is the weak one, so he is a two-round hold rather than a long one.

Three cheap forwards carry the round. Osaze De Rosario (3.9m, SØN) reads 79k → 73k → 45k on [H]SIF → [A]ACH → [H]FCK, 197k over three rounds: a two-round pick, out before the FC København game in Runde 13. Mohamed Sankoh (3.5m, RAN) is in the predicted Randers XI for Friday: 77k → 55k → 62k on [A]ACH → [H]BIF → [A]LYN, 194k. Kingsley Bimpong (2.5m, ACH) is the pure one-rounder: he is in the predicted Horsens XI against Randers and projects 82k, 32.4k per million and the best value of any player this round, but 82k → 52k → 30k on [H]RAN → [H]SØN → [A]VFF says sell again after Runde 11.

Oliver Ross (4.7m, SIF) is the mid-price option with the steadiest program: 72k → 65k → 60k on [A]SØN → [H]FCN → [A]OB, 197k, and 79k in Runde 14. Buy him and stop thinking about the slot. Noah Ganaus (OB) is one for later: 62k → 39k → 98k shows the Silkeborg home game in Runde 13 is his round, not this one. Dorian Hanza (VFF, 22.3% owned) is a hold for the same reason: 59k → 40k → 81k on [H]FCM → [A]AGF → [H]ACH, and one weak week in Runde 12 is no reason to sell a forward whose best round comes straight after it.

Captaincy for Super Manager Runde 11

Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.7m, FCK) is the captain at 121k projected, at home to AGF, and his [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN program is why the armband stays put. He is also the top projection in Runde 12 (137k) and Runde 13 (132k), so one transfer settles the captaincy for three rounds. The alternatives this round are Norheim (98k at Lyngby), Robert (95k, the same fixture as Elyounoussi) and Hjalte Rasmussen (94k). Rasmussen is the differential armband: at 18.7% ownership he gains ground on most of the field if Nordsjælland win at Lyngby, but his projection falls in the next two rounds, so he is a captain for this round only.

Who to sell before Super Manager Runde 11

Elias Olafsson (5.6m, FCM) (19.9% owned) is the clearest sell. He is listed injured and the model has Nordin Bakker in goal for every round of the window, so on [A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN Olafsson projects below zero in Runde 11 and in each of the five rounds after it. Why now: there is no round ahead in which he scores, and Ramaj's two home games start this round.

Rasmus Kristensen (5.5m, FCM) (15.2% owned) is listed injured too. He projects -5k → 20k → 12k on [A]VFF → [H]LYN → [A]FCN, and FC Midtjylland's best defensive fixture, Lyngby at home in Runde 12, is worth only 20k to him. Selling now frees the money for Beijmo or Divkovic before their runs begin.

Alexander Lind (6.6m, FCN) (26.5% owned) is the hardest call. Nordsjælland's [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM is a good program, and Lyngby away is a decent fixture. The problem is minutes: he is projected for only 30 at Lyngby, and 52k → 52k → 48k adds up to 153k over three rounds at 6.6m. Cornelius costs less and projects more, and his program starts now, so the switch is worth making this round rather than next.

Prince Junior (5.2m, FCN) (22.5%) goes for the same reason. Rasmussen and Adel now hold the Nordsjælland midfield minutes, and Junior is projected for 31 minutes, reading 50k → 49k → 44k on [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM. Rasmussen costs less and is worth most this round, so the swap makes sense before Lyngby, not after. Juho Laehteenmaeki (3.5m, FCN) (25.1%) is projected for 37 minutes and reads 39k → 38k → 32k on the same [A]LYN → [A]SIF → [H]FCM; Walker or Dyhr out-project him for less money.

Frederik Emmery (AGF) is a hold, not a sell: 27k → 62k → 43k shows Runde 11 at FC København is the weak week, and Runde 12 at home to Viborg is his best round of the window.

For the exact squad these numbers add up to, the Super Manager optimal teams solve it live, and the Super Manager market probabilities show the bookmaker view behind every fixture.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Super Manager Runde 11?

Mohamed Elyounoussi is the captain, at 121k projected at home to AGF, ahead of Runar Robinsønn Norheim (98k) and Robert (95k). He is also the top projection in Runde 12 and Runde 13.

Who are the best budget picks for Super Manager Runde 11?

Kingsley Bimpong (2.5m) projects 82k in Runde 11 and is the best value in the game this round, but only for one round. For a longer hold, Rami Al Hajj (2.8m) projects 209k over Runde 11 to 13, and Nikolas Dyhr (3.1m) is the cheap route onto the Randers clean sheets. More picks are in the TheFantasyTool guides and the Super Manager preview hub.

Should I sell Alexander Lind before Super Manager Runde 11?

Yes, for most managers. He is projected for only 30 minutes at Lyngby and 153k over three rounds; Andreas Cornelius costs less and projects 242k on the FC København program.

Who are the best differentials for Super Manager Runde 11?

Andreas Cornelius (3.0% owned, 242k over three rounds), Yamirou Ouorou (0.5%, 198k) and Nordin Bakker (0.4%, 187k) are the strongest low-ownership picks.

Which team has the best fixtures from Super Manager Runde 11?

FC København: [H]AGF → [H]OB → [A]SØN adds up to 6.56 expected goals and 0.94 expected clean sheets, the best program in the league over Runde 11 to 13.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.