Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12: captains and best buys
Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials
Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12 comes after the international break, with the first match on Saturday 21 November. The extra time to plan matters because the decisions this round are about the next three gameweeks more than this one. Inter have the best run in the league, but their most-owned forward is not the Inter player to own. Frosinone have a cheap midfielder who outscores almost every premium over the next three rounds. And Fiorentina and Cagliari have no fixture in Gameweek 14 under the current schedule, then two each in Gameweek 15. If you missed the last round, our Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 11 preview covers it.
Every number here comes from our model's projected points. The full ranking is on the Sofascore Serie A player picks page.
Gameweek 12 to 14 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Inter have the strongest three-gameweek run in the game: [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC adds up to 6.42 expected goals, more than anyone else. Atalanta away is the hardest of the three fixtures, but Inter are still 59% favourites there, and Genoa and Frosinone follow. So the Atalanta game is one to plan around, not to avoid. Milan ([H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, 5.68 xG) and Napoli ([H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC, 5.48 xG) come next. Napoli and Juventus share the best defensive outlook, at 1.35 expected clean sheets each over the three gameweeks.
Four teams start the gameweek as roughly 70% favourites: Como, Juventus, Roma and Lazio. Juventus ([H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI) have the highest clean-sheet chance this round at 47%. Roma ([A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL, 45% at Parma) keep a good run going for all three gameweeks. Como and Lazio both start with a home game they win around 70% of the time, but both tail off afterwards. Como host Juventus in Gameweek 13, and Lazio host Atalanta in Gameweek 14 after going away to Torino.
| Team | GW12 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program GW12-14 | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INT | [A]ATA | 59% | 2.26 | 28% | [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC | 6.42 | 1.05 |
| MIL | [H]FRC | 61% | 2.40 | 28% | [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR | 5.68 | 1.19 |
| NAP | [H]TOR | 67% | 2.13 | 43% | [H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC | 5.48 | 1.35 |
| ROM | [A]PAR | 71% | 2.31 | 45% | [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL | 5.43 | 1.16 |
| JUV | [H]VEN | 71% | 2.26 | 47% | [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI | 5.10 | 1.35 |
| LAZ | [H]LEC | 70% | 2.29 | 44% | [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA | 4.89 | 1.07 |
| COM | [H]CGL | 71% | 2.32 | 45% | [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON | 4.76 | 1.19 |
| BOL | [H]UDI | 54% | 1.71 | 38% | [H]UDI → [A]VEN → [H]ROM | 4.27 | 0.99 |
| FRC | [A]MIL | 19% | 1.28 | 9% | [A]MIL → [H]PAR → [H]INT | 4.10 | 0.56 |
| ATA | [H]INT | 20% | 1.27 | 10% | [H]INT → [A]LEC → [A]LAZ | 4.07 | 0.72 |
| SAS | [H]GEN | 39% | 1.39 | 29% | [H]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]VEN | 3.65 | 0.79 |
| FIO | [A]MON | 48% | 1.79 | 27% | [A]MON → [A]UDI (2 fixtures) | 3.46 | 0.59 |
Win probability, expected goals and clean sheet are for Gameweek 12 only. 3-round CS is expected clean sheets over Gameweeks 12-14, not a percentage. Fiorentina ([A]MON → [A]UDI) and Cagliari ([A]COM → [H]MIL, 1.74 xG) have only two fixtures in the window. Their Gameweek 14 meeting is listed on 7 December, inside Gameweek 15. That gives both teams a blank in Gameweek 14 and a double in Gameweek 15, so compare their totals with that in mind. The teams to avoid are Lecce ([A]LAZ → [H]ATA → [A]NAP, 2.40 xG), Parma ([H]ROM → [A]FRC → [A]MIL, 2.45) and Cagliari. Dates and kick-off times are on the Sofascore Serie A schedule.
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 12
Pierluigi Gollini (4.2m, ROM) is the best goalkeeper over the next three gameweeks, and the cheapest one worth considering. His program is [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL and he projects 5.5 → 4.8 → 4.7, 15.0 in total. That is the best of any keeper, at 1.31 points per million this round. Mile Svilar is listed as unavailable with a 17 November return date, and our model has Gollini in goal for all three Roma games. Only 1.6% of managers own him.
Christos Mandas (5.9m, LAZ) is the steadiest option. [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA gives him 5.2 → 4.8 → 4.7, and his projection stays at 4.5 or above all the way to Gameweek 17. Buy him once and you can stop thinking about the position. Mike Maignan (5.9m, MIL), owned by 32.9%, is a clear keep. [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR rises from 4.3 to 4.7 to 5.1, with a 1.19 expected-clean-sheet run that peaks against Parma. Jean Butez (6.6m, COM) ranks third in the position this round at 4.8. But Como's run drops him to 4.2 and 4.1, and over three gameweeks Gollini, Mandas, Maignan and Guglielmo Vicario all beat him.
Best defenders for Gameweek 12
This is the position where this gameweek's ranking and the three-gameweek ranking differ most. Nuno Tavares and Yan Couto lead Gameweek 12. Over Gameweeks 12-14, Gleison Bremer and Carlos Augusto lead. If you are buying a defender to keep, buy from the second pair.
Gleison Bremer (7.5m, JUV) has the best three-gameweek total of any defender at 17.3. His program is [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI, he projects 6.1 → 5.0 → 6.2, and Juventus carry a 47% clean-sheet chance against Venezia and 51% at home to Udinese. 30.6% of managers already own him, and he is the defender to keep.
Carlos Augusto (6.0m, INT) is the hidden gem. He is owned by only 3.8% and is the steadiest defender in the game: 5.7 → 5.9 → 5.4 over [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC, then 5.6-5.7 in each of Gameweeks 15 to 17. His 20.4 weighted six-gameweek score is the best of any defender. Our model has him starting far more often than Federico Dimarco (see the sell section). Pair him with Alessandro Bastoni (6.9m, INT), who projects 4.6 → 5.4 → 4.8, if you want two Inter defenders for the whole run.
Nuno Tavares (6.4m, LAZ) is the defender of the gameweek at 6.6 against Lecce, with 0.20 expected assists. Lazio's [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA drops him to 5.0 and 5.0, so he works as a strong one-round pick but is not the top hold. Strahinja Pavlovic (7.0m, MIL) goes the other way: 5.2 → 5.3 → 6.1 over [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR. Milan's 51% clean-sheet chance against Parma in Gameweek 14 is why he is worth buying now rather than later.
Two budget options. Yan Couto (5.1m, COM) has the best points per million of any defender at 1.20. He projects 6.1 → 4.2 → 4.3 over [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON, so treat him as a one-round pick and plan to move him on in Gameweek 13. Rafa Marin (5.7m, NAP) is the budget hold: 5.5 → 4.9 → 5.5 over [H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC, 15.9 in total, owned by 2.1%. Josip Sutalo (5.6m, LAZ) also offers 5.6 this round, at 0.9% ownership.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 12
Giacomo Calo (6.2m, FRC) is the most important buy of the gameweek. His 19.6 over the next three is the best of any player in the game. He projects 6.4 → 7.0 → 6.2 over [A]MIL → [H]PAR → [H]INT, and he has the best weighted six-gameweek score of anyone at 23.3. He is Frosinone's penalty taker and adds 0.19-0.24 expected assists per match. Milan away and Inter at home are not easy fixtures for Frosinone, but Calo still projects 6.4 and 6.2 in them. He also has the highest projection in the game for Gameweek 13, which makes him a captain option that week. 9.2% own him.
Nico Paz (9.3m, COM) is owned by 57.4% and is the top captain for this gameweek (below). His [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON projects 7.4 → 4.7 → 5.1. That means one excellent week and then two ordinary ones. Keep him, but if you are deciding between a premium midfielder and Calo, Calo has more points over the three gameweeks at 3.1m less.
Federico Bernardeschi (5.6m, BOL) is the differential. He is owned by 1.4% and has the best points per million in the position at 1.07. He projects 6.0 → 5.4 → 5.0 over [H]UDI → [A]VEN → [H]ROM, and among midfielders only Calo and Paz beat his 16.4 three-gameweek total. Gustav Isaksen (6.6m, LAZ) joins Tavares as a strong Lazio pick for one round, with 6.6 and 0.40 expected goals against Lecce. Over [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA he then drops to 4.7 and 4.9, so pick him only if you plan to move him on in Gameweek 13.
Franco Mastantuono (6.0m, FIO) is the long-term pick. His projection of 5.9 → 6.4 at [A]MON → [A]UDI is already good. Fiorentina then have no Gameweek 14 fixture and two in Gameweek 15, where he projects 12.3. His weighted six-gameweek score of 21.2 is second only to Calo among midfielders. If your squad can absorb one empty slot in Gameweek 14, he is worth owning through the double. Among Napoli midfielders, Scott McTominay (8.2m, NAP) is the penalty taker and projects 5.6 at home to Torino. Kevin De Bruyne is projected for 60 minutes or less in each of the three games, at 5.2 → 4.3 → 4.6.
Best forwards for Gameweek 12
Marcus Thuram (8.6m, INT) is the forward to own, and the top premium of the next three gameweeks. He projects 6.4 → 5.9 → 6.3 over [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC, 18.6 in total, and stays between 5.9 and 6.4 all the way to Gameweek 17. He has 0.38-0.45 expected goals in each of the three games. Only 18.6% own him, while 48.2% still own Lautaro Martinez.
Matias Soulé (6.9m, ROM) is the value premium: 6.4 → 5.5 → 5.4 over [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL, 17.3 in total, at 0.93 points per million. Goncalo Ramos (6.8m, MIL) has 0.61 expected goals at home to Frosinone, the highest of any player this gameweek. Over [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR he projects 6.3 → 4.8 → 5.3, so his case is mainly the Frosinone game, with Parma in Gameweek 14 as a second good fixture.
Giorgi Kvernadze (5.0m, FRC) is the budget forward and pairs with Calo. He projects 5.2 → 5.6 → 5.0 over [A]MIL → [H]PAR → [H]INT, 15.8 in total, with 1.04 points per million, the best of any forward. Tijjani Noslin (5.8m, LAZ) has 0.48 expected goals against Lecce for 5.6, then drops to 4.1 and 4.3 over [A]TOR → [H]ATA. He is a cheap pick for this round only. Starting XIs and minute projections for every club are on the Sofascore Serie A predicted lineups page.
Best captain picks for Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12
Your captain scores double in Sofascore Serie A.
- Nico Paz (9.3m, COM): 7.4 at [H]CGL, the highest projection of the gameweek. Como are 71% to beat Cagliari with 2.32 expected goals, and Paz has 0.42 expected goals and 0.21 expected assists. He is the clear number one.
- Marcus Thuram (8.6m, INT): 6.4 at Atalanta. With [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC he is the safest captain over the next three gameweeks.
- Giacomo Calo (6.2m, FRC), Matias Soulé (6.9m, ROM) and Gustav Isaksen (6.6m, LAZ) are all at 6.4-6.6. Calo is the penalty taker of the three.
Captaincy also matters for which players you buy. In Gameweek 13, Calo (7.0 at home to Parma) and Mastantuono (6.4) are the two highest projections. In Gameweek 14 it is Thuram (6.3), with Bremer and Calo just behind at 6.2. Owning Calo and Thuram covers your captain choice for all three gameweeks. Our guide on how to pick a fantasy captain explains the method.
Who to sell before Gameweek 12
Lautaro Martinez (9.9m, INT) is the main sell. 48.2% of managers own him. Inter's [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC is the best run in the league, and that is not the issue. He is listed as unavailable until 17 November, and our model projects only 15, 18 and 20 minutes over the next three gameweeks, or 1.4 → 1.4 → 1.6 points. Why now: Inter's best run starts in Gameweek 12, so selling him and buying Thuram this week gets you all three of those fixtures.
Kenan Yildiz (10.5m, JUV) is owned by 15.6%. He is out until 6 December and projects 0 over [H]VEN → [A]COM, then 1.2 at home to Udinese in Gameweek 14. Why now: Juventus' run is a good one, and the man to own it is Bremer, not a player who misses the first two games of it. His 10.5m buys Bremer with money left over.
Federico Dimarco (9.7m, INT) is owned by 28.4%, but our model has him on 41-43 minutes per game. That gives 3.5 → 3.4 → 3.7, while Carlos Augusto projects 5.7 → 5.9 → 5.4 for 3.7m less. Why now: Inter's run is the one to own, and Augusto is the cheaper way to own it.
Mile Svilar (5.7m, ROM) is owned by 19.2%. He is listed as unavailable until 17 November, and our model has Gollini starting in all three of [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL. Swapping Svilar for Gollini keeps your Roma goalkeeper for the Parma game, which has a 45% clean-sheet chance, and saves 1.5m.
Paulo Dybala (7.4m, ROM) does not need to go yet. [A]PAR is a good fixture, and 5.4 is a reasonable return. His projected minutes then fall from 39 to 26 by Gameweek 14, so you can keep him for Parma and sell in Gameweek 13.
Gameweek 12 transfer summary
The main buys are Calo, Thuram and Carlos Augusto. Bremer, Maignan and Paz are keeps. Gollini and Kvernadze are the budget picks that pay for the premiums, and Bernardeschi and Mastantuono are the differentials. Sell Lautaro Martinez, Yildiz and Dimarco. For the best possible squad under every budget, see the Sofascore Serie A optimal teams. To compare the bookmakers' numbers behind these projections, see the Sofascore Serie A market probabilities. All our previews for this game are in the Sofascore Serie A preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12?
Nico Paz is the top captain for Gameweek 12, with 7.4 projected points against Cagliari, the highest in the game. Marcus Thuram (6.4 at Atalanta) is the safer pick over the next three gameweeks, and Giacomo Calo, Matias Soulé and Gustav Isaksen are all at 6.4-6.6.
Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12?
Yes. Lautaro Martinez is listed as unavailable until 17 November, and our model projects only 15-20 minutes and 1.4-1.6 points per gameweek over Gameweeks 12-14. Marcus Thuram projects 18.6 over the same three Inter fixtures.
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12?
Carlos Augusto (3.8% owned) projects 17.0 over Gameweeks 12-14. Federico Bernardeschi (1.4%) leads all midfielders on points per million, and Pierluigi Gollini (1.6%) is the best goalkeeper over the next three gameweeks at 4.2m.
Which cheap players are best for Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 12?
Giorgi Kvernadze (5.0m) has the best points per million of any forward, and Yan Couto (5.1m) has the best of any defender at 6.1 against Cagliari. Gollini (4.2m) is the best-value goalkeeper. Calo (6.2m) is not cheap, but he has the best three-gameweek total of any player.
Which teams have the best fixtures in Sofascore Serie A Gameweeks 12-14?
Inter have the best attacking run at 6.42 expected goals ([A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC), ahead of Milan and Napoli. Napoli and Juventus have the most expected clean sheets at 1.35. Fiorentina and Cagliari have no Gameweek 14 fixture and two in Gameweek 15.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.