Sofascore NL Matchday 5: captain picks and best buys
Sofascore NL Matchday 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 5 is the second-to-last decision of the league phase. Only Matchday 5 and Matchday 6 remain, so every transfer you make this week is a two-round transfer: it has to earn its place in the first November round and then again a few days later. That changes the maths. A player with one good fixture and one poor one is worth far less than in a long season, and the template premiums matter less than the cheaper players who are good in both rounds. This preview ranks the two-round programs first, then names the best buys, captain options, differentials and sells.
If you missed last week, the Sofascore NL Matchday 4 preview covered the October double-header. For the full projection table, use the Sofascore NL player picks page, and check the predicted lineups closer to the deadline: the round is still more than a month away, so projections will keep moving as squads are named.
Matchday 5 and 6 programs: whose last two fixtures are worth owning
With two rounds left, the program is the two-fixture chain below. The table is sorted on combined Matchday 5 + 6 expected goals; the last two columns are cumulative over both rounds, so a clean-sheet figure of 0.92 means 0.92 expected clean sheets from two games. Kick-off times are on the Sofascore NL schedule.
| Team | Matchday 5 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD5 → MD6) | 2-round xG | 2-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | [A]Albania | 32% | 0.98 | 36% | [A]Albania → [H]San Marino | 4.33 | 0.92 |
| Iceland | [A]Bulgaria | 60% | 1.87 | 42% | [A]Bulgaria → [H]Luxembourg | 3.50 | 0.86 |
| Portugal | [H]Denmark | 54% | 1.86 | 33% | [H]Denmark → [A]Wales | 3.25 | 0.54 |
| Slovakia | [H]Faroe Islands | 53% | 1.50 | 46% | [H]Faroe Islands → [A]Kazakhstan | 3.21 | 0.87 |
| Sweden | [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina | 49% | 1.65 | 32% | [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Poland | 3.19 | 0.56 |
| Germany | [A]Serbia | 34% | 1.31 | 24% | [A]Serbia → [H]Netherlands | 3.17 | 0.49 |
| England | [H]Croatia | 59% | 1.82 | 42% | [H]Croatia → [A]Spain | 3.16 | 0.63 |
| Turkiye | [H]Belgium | 58% | 1.84 | 39% | [H]Belgium → [A]France | 3.09 | 0.60 |
| Norway | [H]Wales | 54% | 1.77 | 36% | [H]Wales → [A]Denmark | 3.09 | 0.64 |
| Belarus | [A]San Marino | 73% | 2.29 | 51% | [A]San Marino → [H]Albania | 3.07 | 0.86 |
| Hungary | [A]Georgia | 40% | 1.10 | 42% | [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland | 2.12 | 0.85 |
Finland have the best two-round attacking program at 4.33 expected goals, but most of it sits in Matchday 6: [A]Albania is a tight 0.98 xG game before [H]San Marino. That makes Finnish attackers a Matchday 6 target rather than a Matchday 5 one. Switzerland ([A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland) and Finland share the best defensive program at 0.92 expected clean sheets, with Slovakia (0.87), Iceland (0.86) and Hungary (0.85) just behind. Those five are where the cheap defensive points are.
For Matchday 5 alone, Belarus at San Marino (73% win probability), Iceland at Bulgaria (60%) and England at home to Croatia (59%) are the strongest favourites. England's program then turns to [A]Spain, so English assets are a better one-round play than a two-round hold. Lithuania and Malta have no Matchday 5 fixture in the current fixture set, and Andorra and Azerbaijan have none in Matchday 6.
Best Sofascore NL Matchday 5 goalkeepers
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (4.5m, Iceland) is the clearest goalkeeper buy: [A]Bulgaria → [H]Luxembourg gives Iceland a 42% clean-sheet chance this Matchday and a similar one next, and the model has him at 5.8 → 5.8 (11.6 over the last two Matchdays). He is owned by only 1.6% of managers, which makes him both a value pick and a differential.
Dominik Greif (4.0m, Slovakia) is the cheapest route into a top defensive program. Slovakia go [H]Faroe Islands → [A]Kazakhstan, with a 46% clean-sheet chance at home to the Faroe Islands, and he projects 5.8 → 5.6 (11.4 over the last two Matchdays). If you want a bigger name, Jan Oblak (5.7m, Slovenia) is the one whose program rises: [H]Switzerland is the harder game, but [A]North Macedonia lifts him to 6.1, the highest Matchday 6 goalkeeper projection. Lukas Hradecky (5.4m, Finland) follows the same shape (5.2 → 5.9 (11.1 over the last two Matchdays)) through [A]Albania → [H]San Marino.
Diogo Costa (16.9% owned) is a fine hold at 5.4 → 5.0 (10.4 over the last two Matchdays), but there is no need to buy him at his price when cheaper keepers match him in both rounds.
Best Sofascore NL Matchday 5 defenders
Willi Orban (5.5m, Hungary) is the standout defender this week. Hungary's [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland carries 0.85 expected clean sheets, and the model has him at 6.7 in both Matchdays, the top defender projection for Matchday 5. At 2.6% ownership he is the defender most managers are missing.
Juho Laehteenmaeki (5.1m, Finland) is the best two-round defender by total: 5.4 → 8.9 (14.3 over the last two Matchdays). The jump is San Marino at home in Matchday 6, so if you are buying one defender to keep for both rounds, he edges Orban; if you only care about Matchday 5, Orban is the pick. Konstantinos Mavropanos (5.6m, Greece) has the same rising shape with Greece going [A]Netherlands → [H]Serbia: 5.8 → 7.1 (12.9 over the last two Matchdays).
The Swiss pair Manuel Akanji (6.0m, Switzerland) and Nico Elvedi (5.6m, Switzerland) give you the best clean-sheet program in the game, [A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland, at 6.0 → 5.6 (11.6 over the last two Matchdays) and 5.9 → 5.6 (11.5 over the last two Matchdays). Only pair one with a Swiss goalkeeper if the keeper earns the spot on his own: Gregor Kobel projects 4.8 → 4.6, below the cheaper keepers above.
Budget defenders: Daniel Gretarsson (4.5m, Iceland) rides Iceland's [A]Bulgaria → [H]Luxembourg at 5.6 → 5.6 (11.2 over the last two Matchdays), and Dion Gallapeni (4.5m, Kosovo) goes [H]Israel → [A]Ireland at 5.7 → 5.4 (11.1 over the last two Matchdays). Both are owned by under 1% of managers. Nuno Mendes (18.3%) is worth keeping for [H]Denmark at 5.9, though he dips to 4.9 at Wales.
Best Sofascore NL Matchday 5 midfielders
Lamine Yamal (12.2m, Spain) remains the top midfielder over both rounds at 7.0 → 7.9 (14.9 over the last two Matchdays), going [A]Czechia → [H]England with his projection rising into the England game. He is already in 43.5% of squads, so owning him protects your rank rather than gaining on anyone. The decisions that move rank sit below him.
Arda Güler (8.0m, Turkiye) is the best mid-price midfielder for Matchday 5 at 6.8, with Turkiye going [H]Belgium → [A]France. The France trip drops him to 5.9, so he is a strong Matchday 5 buy whose second round is merely decent. Dominik Szoboszlai (8.4m, Hungary) is flatter and steadier: 6.3 → 6.0 (12.3 over the last two Matchdays) with Hungary's [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland, and a flat projection is exactly what you want when the league phase ends in two rounds.
The value pick is Nicola Zalewski (6.0m, Poland): 6.2 → 6.0 (12.2 over the last two Matchdays) with Poland going [A]Romania → [H]Sweden, at 1.03 points per million, the best ratio of any midfielder projecting 6.0 or more. Edon Zhegrova (6.0m, Kosovo) costs the same with 6.0 → 5.1 (11.1 over the last two Matchdays) through [H]Israel → [A]Ireland, owned by 2.3%.
Michael Olise (10.0m, France) (25.1% owned) is the premium whose program improves most: 5.3 → 6.8 (12.1 over the last two Matchdays), with France going [A]Italy → [H]Turkiye. If you own him, hold: [A]Italy is the weaker leg, and the payoff comes in Matchday 6. Jude Bellingham is flat at 5.9 → 6.0 and is a hold rather than a buy.
Best Sofascore NL Matchday 5 forwards
Erling Haaland (11.5m, Norway) is the top forward for Matchday 5 at 6.9, with Norway going [H]Wales → [A]Denmark. The Denmark trip drops him to 5.9, but he still tops the two-round forward ranking and there is no case for selling him.
Viktor Gyökeres (8.1m, Sweden) is the best-value premium forward: 6.1 → 5.8 (11.9 over the last two Matchdays) through [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Poland, at 6.3% ownership. Nikola Krstovic (6.6m, Montenegro) is the differential, 5.8 → 5.4 (11.2 over the last two Matchdays) with Montenegro going [H]Latvia → [A]Cyprus, owned by just 2.6%. Zeki Amdouni (5.7m, Switzerland) is a cheaper forward whose projection holds in both rounds (5.0 → 5.2 (10.2 over the last two Matchdays)) through [A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland.
One single-round play: Adrian Svanbäck (4.7m, Finland) projects only 3.3 at Albania but 5.7 against San Marino ([A]Albania → [H]San Marino). He is a Matchday 6 transfer, not a Matchday 5 one, so bring him in next week if you have a transfer left.
Sofascore NL Matchday 5 captain picks
| Player | Team | Price | Matchday 5 | Matchday 6 | Program |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | Spain | 12.2m | 7.0 | 7.9 | [A]Czechia → [H]England |
| Erling Haaland | Norway | 11.5m | 6.9 | 5.9 | [H]Wales → [A]Denmark |
| Arda Güler | Turkiye | 8.0m | 6.8 | 5.9 | [H]Belgium → [A]France |
| Willi Orban | Hungary | 5.5m | 6.7 | 6.7 | [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | Hungary | 8.4m | 6.3 | 6.0 | [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland |
| Bruno Fernandes | Portugal | 9.9m | 6.2 | 5.4 | [H]Denmark → [A]Wales |
The captain scores double. Lamine Yamal (12.2m, Spain) is the Matchday 5 captain at 7.0 ([A]Czechia → [H]England), narrowly ahead of Erling Haaland (6.9) and Arda Güler (6.8). The margin is small, so Haaland at home to Wales is a perfectly good alternative. For Matchday 6, Yamal is clearer still at 7.9 against England, which is the main reason to keep him for both rounds.
Who to sell before Sofascore NL Matchday 5
Harry Kane (16.2% owned) is the sell, and this is the round to do it. [H]Croatia is a fine fixture and 5.5 is a respectable projection, so this is not a bad week for him. But [A]Spain follows and he drops to 4.6, while Viktor Gyökeres outscores him in both rounds for 3.9m less. With only two Matchdays left, a sell delayed to Matchday 6 gets you one round of value from the replacement instead of two.
Josko Gvardiol (15.8%) projects 3.3 at England and 4.4 against Czechia. Why now: the England trip is the weaker of his two fixtures, and Orban, Laehteenmaeki and the Swiss defenders beat him in both rounds. Pau Cubarsi (16.9%) is projected for roughly half a game in each round (2.1 → 3.4), and nothing in Spain's [A]Czechia → [H]England changes that, so there is no reason to wait. Joao Cancelo (16.8%) falls from 4.5 to 3.6; you can wait a round on him and keep him for [H]Denmark if transfers are tight, but he is the first defender to move if you are freeing funds.
To build the strongest squad for both rounds at once, run the Sofascore NL optimal teams solver with Matchday 5 and 6 selected, and compare odds on the market probabilities page. More previews for this game are on the Sofascore NL preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore NL Matchday 5?
Lamine Yamal is the top captain at 7.0 projected points at Czechia, just ahead of Erling Haaland (6.9) at home to Wales and Arda Güler (6.8) at home to Belgium.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore NL Matchday 5?
Daniel Gretarsson (4.5m) and Dion Gallapeni (4.5m) both project 5.4 or more in each remaining round, and Juho Laehteenmaeki (5.1m) has the best two-round total of any defender thanks to San Marino in Matchday 6.
Should I sell Harry Kane before Sofascore NL Matchday 5?
Yes, if you have the transfer. Kane projects 5.5 against Croatia but only 4.6 at Spain, and Viktor Gyökeres outscores him in both rounds for less money.
Best differentials for Sofascore NL Matchday 5?
Willi Orban (2.6% owned), Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (1.6%) and Nikola Krstovic (2.6%) all project strongly in both remaining Matchdays and are owned by very few managers.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.